New F-35 Block Buy is Close, Lockheed Says

[element1loop]

Almost 500 jets, sub $80 million a copy

Let's not create myths, only the F-35A will be under $80 million, from Lot 13 (a year later than promised btw).

Lot 12, and the B and C in all Lots, will be significantly more expensive.

[quicksilver]

...and Lot 14 significantly less.

The “below $80M” target was always about the ‘A’; I think everyone understands that, or did we miss some slight of hand in this?

“Lord said the Lot 12-14 contract would be made public “soon,” having announced a “handshake deal” in June. She called it a “historic milestone” at the time because, beginning with Lot 13, the unit cost of the new fighters will be under $80 million — “one year earlier than planned.” “

[element1loop]

...and Lot 14 significantly less.

The “below $80M” target was always about the ‘A’; I think everyone understands that, or did we miss some slight of hand in this?

“Lord said the Lot 12-14 contract would be made public “soon,” having announced a “handshake deal” in June. She called it a “historic milestone” at the time because, beginning with Lot 13, the unit cost of the new fighters will be under $80 million — “one year earlier than planned.” “

Nope.

December 21, 2018
Lockheed Martin to Reduce F-35 Fighter jet price to $80 Million by 2020
Lockheed Martin will reduce the unit price of the F-35 jet to $80 million in 2020 from the current $89 million and is set to deliver more than 130 F-35s in 2019 to US and international customers

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/23923 ... on_by_2020

The $80 mil for the F-35A was supposed to be in Lot 12.

What Lord said it will subsequently be, does not alter that it will be 1 year, and 1 Lot later than was prior claimed (and has been claimed for Lot 12 for a couple of years iirc).

Here's another:

Now, Lockheed Martin says the F-35, which it bills as a fifth-generation fighter jet, is comparably priced with other fourth-generation jets in the market. The company had originally set a 2020 deadline for achieving the $80 million goal.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news ... llion.html

[Corsair1963]

Shocked by the "9" F-35C's! Which, should be like 20+ by this stage...

Looks to be right on schedule per the SAR...

2019 - USAF=48 : USN/USMC=29 : Total=77
2020 - USAF=48 : USN/USMC=36 : Total=84
2021 - USAF=54 : USN/USMC=44 : Total=99
2022 - USAF=54 : USN/USMC=44 : Total=99
2023 - USAF=54 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=99
2024 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2025 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2026 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2027 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2028 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2029 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105

Unfortunately, it doesn't break down the mix of F-35B's and F-35C's.

[Corsair1963]

Death spiral for sure.

Yeah, how can anyone make a case for a 4.5 Generation Fighter (i.e. Gripen, Rafale, Super Hornet, or Typhoon) over the F-35A now....

[quicksilver]

...and Lot 14 significantly less.

The “below $80M” target was always about the ‘A’; I think everyone understands that, or did we miss some slight of hand in this?

“Lord said the Lot 12-14 contract would be made public “soon,” having announced a “handshake deal” in June. She called it a “historic milestone” at the time because, beginning with Lot 13, the unit cost of the new fighters will be under $80 million — “one year earlier than planned.” “

Nope.

December 21, 2018
Lockheed Martin to Reduce F-35 Fighter jet price to $80 Million by 2020
Lockheed Martin will reduce the unit price of the F-35 jet to $80 million in 2020 from the current $89 million and is set to deliver more than 130 F-35s in 2019 to US and international customers

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/23923 ... on_by_2020

The $80 mil for the F-35A was supposed to be in Lot 12.

What Lord said it will subsequently be, does not alter that it will be 1 year, and 1 Lot later than was prior claimed (and has been claimed for Lot 12 for a couple of years iirc).

Here's another:

Now, Lockheed Martin says the F-35, which it bills as a fifth-generation fighter jet, is comparably priced with other fourth-generation jets in the market. The company had originally set a 2020 deadline for achieving the $80 million goal.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news ... llion.html

This is right out of the first link you posted above — “The price of an F-35A is now $89.2 million and the enterprise is on track to deliver an $80 million F-35A by 2020 (Lot 14), which is equal to or less than the price of less capable, 4th generation aircraft.“

So what am I missing? Sniffed around and found this Reuters piece from 2017 — https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airs ... SKBN1990S8

And a quote from it — “The average price in 2019 could be $85 million for the F-35 “A” variant and could drop below $80 million in 2020, the people said. That would mark the lowest price ever paid for an F-35, making this deal an important step in reducing the overall cost of each jet.“

Istr something (waaay back) about an earlier date also, but couldn’t find anything that said so.

[juretrn]

Sub 100M for the C, at this rate the B will hit the mark soon as well.

[element1loop]

So what am I missing?

Disregard Q, I had my wires crossed.

[marauder2048]

Looks to be right on schedule per the SAR...


2019 - USAF=48 : USN/USMC=29 : Total=77
2020 - USAF=48 : USN/USMC=36 : Total=84
2021 - USAF=54 : USN/USMC=44 : Total=99
2022 - USAF=54 : USN/USMC=44 : Total=99
2023 - USAF=54 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=99
2024 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2025 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2026 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2027 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2028 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2029 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105

Unfortunately, it doesn't break down the mix of F-35B's and F-35C's.

The original J&A for Lots 12 - 14 had:

Lot 12: 6 x F-35C, 20 x F-35B
Lot 13: 12 x F-35C, 20 x F-35B
Lot 14: 18 x F-35C, 20 x F-35B

[element1loop]

Seems I'm not the only one confused about when these Lots will be built.

Lockheed Martin F-35A to be priced at $77.9m by 2022

29 October, 2019

SOURCE: FlightGlobal.com

BY: Garrett Reim Los Angeles

Lockheed Martin and the F-35 Joint Program Office agreed to a $34 billion production contract for 478 examples of the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter. As part of the three year deal, the price of all aircraft variants will fall an average of 12.7% from lot 11 to 14, the company says.

The contact covers aircraft to be delivered to the US Air Force (USAF), US Navy (USN) and US Marine Corps (USMC), as well as the programme’s international development partners and Foreign Military Sales customers, says Lockheed Martin. The US services will receive 291 aircraft, international partners will receive 127 aircraft and Foreign Military Sales customers will receive 60 aircraft.

[The contract is about aircraft that are still to be built, it's not referring to aircraft that already have been built, as far as i can see. And I was under the impression the current year-build is Lot 11.]

The price of the F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing variant will officially fall below the $80 million mark in lot 13, a goal Lockheed Martin had been touting since earlier this year when it reached a handshake agreement with the Joint Program Office. And by 2022, the F-35A fighters produced as part of lot 14 will cost $77.9 million apiece. That is about 12.8% less than the aircraft’s price in 2019. ...

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 22-461870/

hmm ... I would have said 2021, but FlightGlobal is saying 2022.

And further down in the article it gives this table:

F-35 PRICES FOR NEXT THREE YEARS

Variant Lot 12 (2020) Lot 13 (2021) Lot 14 (2022) % change from Lot 11 to 14
F-35A $82.4m $79.2m $77.9m 12.8% decrease
F-35B $108m $105m $101m 12.3% decrease
F-35C $103m $98.1m $94.4m 13.2% decrease
Lockheed Martin

Which identifies Lot 12 as the 2020 year-build, which is what I also thought was the case. The table claims to be Lockheed Martin's info.

What a cluster! It looks like the summary graphic that Dragon (and juretrn) posted may be what is labelled incorrectly, it should say 2021 for Lot 13 for the sub-$80 million price point.

So yeah, 1 year and 1 Lot late.

[marauder2048]

2020 is the delivery year for Lot 12
2021 is the delivery year for Lot 13
2022 is the delivery year for Lot 14

The government appropriated (or in the case of Lot 14 will appropriate) funding for the aircraft
lot approximately 2 years before the delivery year. And appropriated funding for long
lead ~3 years before that.

Lots 13 and 14 are options under the Lot 12 contract. They've just definitized the option years
which is why you saw the contract award for Lot 13 yesterday.

When the appropriations bill for FY20 is passed, they'll award (maybe in CY19 likely CY20)
the procurement contract for the Lot 14 options. But Lot 13 dipped below the $80 million mark in CY19
(okay FY20..) when they awarded the procurement contract.

So they are actually a year and a lot earlier than planned.

[Corsair1963]

[quote="marauder204]

The original J&A for Lots 12 - 14 had:

Lot 12: 6 x F-35C, 20 x F-35B
Lot 13: 12 x F-35C, 20 x F-35B
Lot 14: 18 x F-35C, 20 x F-35B[/quote]

Yes, those numbers look better. Plus, the US Congress usually add a few more each year. (Lot 12 up from 6 to 9)


Really, the USN needs at least 20 per year with 30 being ideal....

[element1loop]

Thanks for clearing that up marauder, much appreciated.

[hornetfinn]

Wow, that is going to make F-35 really interesting for those countries acquiring new fighters circa 2025 or so. These include Finland, Canada, Greece, Spain, Switzerland and Romania. Probably some others also and of course existing users might find it easier to buy more also. I predict that total production numbers of F-35 might get very close to that of F-16.

[Corsair1963]

Wow, that is going to make F-35 really interesting for those countries acquiring new fighters circa 2025 or so. These include Finland, Canada, Greece, Spain, Switzerland and Romania. Probably some others also and of course existing users might find it easier to buy more also. I predict that total production numbers of F-35 might get very close to that of F-16.

France is putting considerable pressure on Spain "not" to buy the F-35. Yet, with such a respectable price. They may not be able to resist....