The Turkey problem

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mixelflick

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Unread post28 Nov 2019, 16:18

So they're not getting the F-35, and if the Aviationist article is accurate - they're only going to be ordering/building more S-400's. The S-400 ain't cheap, so I'm wondering if Turkey can afford both a state of the art air defense/air force filled with squadrons of modern fighters.

36 SU-35's is no small number, but it's quite a few less than what they have now which is what, 200+ F-16's?
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madrat

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Unread post28 Nov 2019, 21:39

Turkey 2019 is Iran 1979 all over again. So much for secular governments in that corner of the world.

I hope Turkey enjoys the other sanctions coming down the pipe.
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optimist

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Unread post29 Nov 2019, 01:21

notkent wrote:Turkey is testing their new S-440 using US made planes.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... ns-threats


Image

You may not be aware that Turkey doesn't have any F-35A there.
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SpudmanWP

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Unread post29 Nov 2019, 06:09

lol.. that's the point :doh:
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optimist

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Unread post29 Nov 2019, 13:00

SpudmanWP wrote:lol.. that's the point :doh:

It is still a pointless image. They don't need a physical F-35 there. They were a full partner and given the keys to the safe. Turkey has the full specs on the F-35, including all the pole RCS data, They have everything every other partner has, up to this point. They would have pallets of data. They also manufacture the composites and can set up RCS testing. They don't need a flying plane to physically test radar specs on it.
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ricnunes

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Unread post29 Nov 2019, 13:12

optimist wrote:It is still a pointless image. They don't need a physical F-35 there. They are a full partner and given the keys to the safe. Turkey has the full specs on the F-35, including all the pole RCS data, They have everything up to this point. They would have pallets of data. They also manufacture the composites and can set up RCS testing. They don't need a flying plane to test the radar specs on it.


Perhaps you could be right regarding the aircraft's (F-35) "pure" RCS values versus the detection range of the S-400.
Even we "mere mortal" with our computers can make some resonably good estimates regarding this, I guess.

However the F-35 also has other tricks "under the sleeve" in order to further hide from and/or disrupt the S-400, namely EW.
I strongly doubt that Turkey has any access to classified data regarding the F-35's Barracuda EW system (no way the US/UK would give this to an ally such as Turkey). So and with this in mind and IMO, the only way for Turkey (and indirectly Russia) to test the F-35's EW abilities against the S-400 would be to have a physical F-35 plane flying against a physical S-400 system (and against something that fully models a physical S-400 system).

My 2 cents, of course.
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mixelflick

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Unread post29 Nov 2019, 16:52

madrat wrote:Turkey 2019 is Iran 1979 all over again. So much for secular governments in that corner of the world.

I hope Turkey enjoys the other sanctions coming down the pipe.


Agree wholeheartedly..

Not selling them the F-35 is the right thing to do. Some then proposed selling a "downgraded" version, to appease Israel. That would be even worse IMO. All the program needs now is for a Turkish F-35 to get trounced by a lesser jet and boom - there go your foreign sales. I say all or nothing, and in this case nothing it shall be.

Ergodan will look back on this and realize it was a terribe mistake. Fielding enough S-400 batteries will leave little left over for SU-35's or other high end air superiority jets. To make matters even worse, those S-400 batteries have to contend with Israeli F-35's. Doing the math on that, I think his S-400's are going to get creamed. So now he'll have no meaningful number of fighters to deal with Israeli incursions, along with a swiss cheese air defense network that he paid dearly for. And I don't just mean in dollars.

As I've said before they've made their bed, now they're going to have to sleep in it...
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notkent

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Unread post30 Nov 2019, 13:47

optimist wrote:It is still a pointless image. They don't need a physical F-35 there. They were a full partner and given the keys to the safe. Turkey has the full specs on the F-35, including all the pole RCS data, They have everything every other partner has, up to this point. They would have pallets of data. They also manufacture the composites and can set up RCS testing. They don't need a flying plane to physically test radar specs on it.


If Turkey had both S-400, F-35s and Russian technicians/engineers they would be able to run series of tests under controlled conditions that Russian would not be able to do otherwise. The F-35 will be flying in the range of Russian SAMs but it is possible to not use certain counter measures, like cyber attacks until they are needed during actual combat missions.

It would also open up the possibility of getting IFF codes, mission data and examining all of the subsystems installed on the F-35 to look for limitations and ways to exploit them.

Today everything is networked so that sensors can hand off targets and information to each other. This is fine if they are all allied nations SAMs, sensors and planes. Having an incompatible system in the loop raises the possibility of friendly fire incidents
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Unread post11 Dec 2019, 15:47

The Pentagon Isn't Sure What to Do with Turkey’s Undelivered F-35s
10 Dec 2019 Oriana Pawlyk

"Congress is offering the Defense Department the option to purchase Turkey's F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and giving the defense secretary discretion to spend up to $30 million to store the fifth-generation jets until a plan for their use is formalized, according to the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 2020.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper has been given the green light to spend funds "to be appropriated for fiscal year 2020 for the Department of Defense to conduct activities associated with storage, preservation, and developing a plan for the final disposition of such F-35 aircraft and Turkish F-35 aircraft equipment, including full mission simulators, helmet-mounted display systems, air system maintenance trainers, and ancillary mission equipment," the bill states.

That money would fund storage for up to six jets and associated materials. F-35 deliveries to Turkey had originally been slated to occur between late summer and the end of this year....

...In a joint statement provided with the bill Tuesday, Congress said it would "support" the U.S. purchase of all jets originally meant for Turkey. The aircraft have been stationed at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, where international pilot training is conducted.

"The conferees also encourage the Secretary of Defense to maximize the procurement quantity of Turkish F-35A aircraft associated with Lots 12, 13, or 14 during fiscal year 2020 using the additional funds authorized in section 4101 of this Act," according to the statement.

Esper has 90 days from the bill's passage to provide congressional defense committees a report outlining a long-term plan for Turkey's F-35s, "which includes options for recovery of costs from Turkey and for unilateral use of such assets," the bill states....

...The DoD also began phasing out aircraft parts manufactured by Turkey. Turkish industries produce 937 parts for the F-35, including items for the landing gear and fuselage. "We're on the path to March 2020 to transition all of those parts out. ... The U.S. absorbed about a $600 million bill for that," Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen Lord said in October...."

Source: https://www.military.com/daily-news/201 ... f-35s.html
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steve2267

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Unread post11 Dec 2019, 17:32

Since he seems to have fallen head over heals in love with their religion, this sounds like a wonderful opportunity for Trudeau to jump to the head of the line and jumpstart Canada's acquisition of the F-35. Then again, maybe not -- he might want to give the planes to Ankara.

Maybe Singapore would like to get six slightly used F-35's with all ancillary support equipment several years early?

Or, if the price was right, maybe Bulgaria? That would probably stick in Erdogan's craw, though.
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milosh

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Unread post11 Dec 2019, 17:43

mixelflick wrote:Agree wholeheartedly..

Not selling them the F-35 is the right thing to do. Some then proposed selling a "downgraded" version, to appease Israel. That would be even worse IMO. All the program needs now is for a Turkish F-35 to get trounced by a lesser jet and boom - there go your foreign sales. I say all or nothing, and in this case nothing it shall be.

Ergodan will look back on this and realize it was a terribe mistake. Fielding enough S-400 batteries will leave little left over for SU-35's or other high end air superiority jets. To make matters even worse, those S-400 batteries have to contend with Israeli F-35's. Doing the math on that, I think his S-400's are going to get creamed. So now he'll have no meaningful number of fighters to deal with Israeli incursions, along with a swiss cheese air defense network that he paid dearly for. And I don't just mean in dollars.

As I've said before they've made their bed, now they're going to have to sleep in it...


Erdogan isn't doing this because he is planing to attack Israel but because to piss off USA. USA did huge mistake when it tried to kill Erdogan trough coup. Then Trump came Erdogan expect he will fix Obama mess but nope, in fact US push Turkey even more.

Btw US need to be happy if Erdogan only buy S-400 and Su-35, imagine if Erdo decide to build Turskih fighter with Russian help and Qatar money, and Turks bring their know how from JSF program!
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notkent

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Unread post11 Dec 2019, 18:02

Turkey produced about 840 parts out of 300,000 that make up a F 35 so don't know how much know how they will bring.
Sort of a moot point if they wanted to pass on what they know about the F 35 there is no guarantee that they won't just do it.

Have to believe that this possibility was planned for and care given as to what parts and technology was given to Turkey and others. Probably partner nations were given parts based on their existing industrial level of technology

India and Russia were going to build a 5th generation fighter together but that effort seems to have fallen apart.
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milosh

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Unread post11 Dec 2019, 19:16

Turkey is doing part of fuselage for F-35 and have access to data about F-35 which Russia don't have. So Turkey maybe have better composite tech then Russia plus it have some F-35 info.

India have couple of failed projects which aren't stealth at all so they need to fix that holes first.
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Unread post11 Dec 2019, 22:31

Read through the 2020 NDAA going through the political arenas and saw where Turkey will not be admitted back into the program until they completely relinquish the S-400 system. The Patriot system is also still on the table for them to accept as a replacement as well. Obviously, that's not going to happen but it doesn't look like this will be resolved anytime soon.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post12 Dec 2019, 02:25

milosh wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Agree wholeheartedly..

Not selling them the F-35 is the right thing to do. Some then proposed selling a "downgraded" version, to appease Israel. That would be even worse IMO. All the program needs now is for a Turkish F-35 to get trounced by a lesser jet and boom - there go your foreign sales. I say all or nothing, and in this case nothing it shall be.

Ergodan will look back on this and realize it was a terribe mistake. Fielding enough S-400 batteries will leave little left over for SU-35's or other high end air superiority jets. To make matters even worse, those S-400 batteries have to contend with Israeli F-35's. Doing the math on that, I think his S-400's are going to get creamed. So now he'll have no meaningful number of fighters to deal with Israeli incursions, along with a swiss cheese air defense network that he paid dearly for. And I don't just mean in dollars.

As I've said before they've made their bed, now they're going to have to sleep in it...


Erdogan isn't doing this because he is planing to attack Israel but because to piss off USA. USA did huge mistake when it tried to kill Erdogan trough coup. Then Trump came Erdogan expect he will fix Obama mess but nope, in fact US push Turkey even more.

Btw US need to be happy if Erdogan only buy S-400 and Su-35, imagine if Erdo decide to build Turskih fighter with Russian help and Qatar money, and Turks bring their know how from JSF program!


The US wasn't involved in any coup attempt against Erdogan. Regardless, of what some "nuts" in the media would like us to believe. Likely involving Russia no doubt.........

Also, absurd to think the US needs to keep Turkey happy. Actually, the other way around....As the Turkish Economy isn't doing so well. In addition the Turkish Defense Industry is "heavily" reliant on the US and Europe for both Technical Assistance and Components. Which, includes imported military hardware and domestic exports.

In short a "split" between Turkey and the West would be nothing short of "crushing" to the Turkish State. So, while Erdogan is happy to antagonize the US and Europe. He always stops just short of actually "pulling the trigger".

Honestly, this whole idea that Erdogan has most of the "cards" is absurd...
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