The Turkey problem

[wolfpak]

There is nothing to gain by imposing sanctions now. We hold the high cards and have taken the F-35 from Turkey. What in a negotiation does Turkey have to offer to get the F-35 back? They have to credibly renounce their decision on the S-400 and physically remove it from their country. While this is going on those firms supplying the F-35 program in Turkey should be trying to complete as many components for the aircraft as they can and get them shipped before Erdogan or L-M stops them. After all they're in it for the money. What would be interesting to know is how far ahead of the their use in assembly were the components sourced to Turkey procured? Wonder if L-M ordered parts with enough lead-time to mitigate the effects of a event like this? I can't see an aircraft manufacturer using just-in-time inventory techniques for a high-dollar product with suppliers across the globe. If there are enough parts to cover assembly until new sources are qualified and in production it takes the last card that can be played by Erdogan from him. To date Turkey's response seems muted. I think unless Erdogan wants to push the U.S. and NATO out of Turkey his options are limited a he knows it.

[Prinz_Eugn]

Aside from the eye-rolling use of the phrase "stealth mode," I thought this was an interesting analysis from CSIS:

Analysts have been scratching their heads as to the U.S. failure to dissuade Erdogan, but Occam’s razor may be helpful here. Erdogan may want the S-400 for the exact reason the United States does not want Turkey to have it: precisely because it is built to shoot down the American-made aircraft currently operated by the Turkish Air Force. Both political and military aspects of the S-400 decision make sense inasmuch as Erdogan’s top priority is his own political survival.

Source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/coup-proo ... 0-decision

[spazsinbad]

Will US F-35s ever operate from Turkey? The US Air Force’s top general won’t rule it out.
22 Jul 2019 Valerie Insinna

"OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN — The U.S. Air Force’s top general isn’t ready to say that the service’s stealthy F-35s will never fly out of its air base in Turkey, despite an ongoing feud between Washington and Ankara about Turkey’s purchase of a Russian air defense system, he said in an exclusive July 20 interview....

...U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Dave Goldfein said the service has not imposed restrictions that would prohibit stealth aircraft like the F-35 from operating from Incirlik Air Base, which is a key launching point for U.S. air assets in southern Turkey. “What I would say is we would do an assessment of the threat; and based on the intelligence assessment of the threat, we would make a decision based on everything in the world when we fly,” he said.

“I don’t want to potentially tie, right now, a blanket operational assessment with a technological assessment,” he said. “ ‘Does this mean you’re never going to fly F-35s in Turkey?’ I can’t commit that because I don’t have an assessment of the threat and where it is in real time. And I’m going to make a decision in real time, as I do every other time.”...

...Meanwhile, the department is still grappling with how best to deal with Turkey’s extant F-35s currently used for pilot training at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, as well as the jets the country has on order.

Goldfein, who spent last week visiting air bases in Europe and attending meetings with foreign air chiefs, said his counterparts were aligned with the U.S. decision to remove Turkey from the program. “There’s pretty good solidarity among the F-35 users that we’re on the right path. There’s also pretty good solidarity that there’s still hope that we’re going to somehow work our way through this, with Turkey as a valuable ally — that we’ll work to some kind of a solution on the back end of this.”

While Goldfein acknowledged that it is “incompatible for, in one country, the F-35 and the S-400 to coexist,” he added that the Air Force needs to retain its operational flexibility and not rule out any options regarding how it may deploy its forces in the future. “Our military-to-military relationships remain as strong as ever, and we need to keep them as strong as ever as we allow the diplomatic discussion to continue,” he said.... [MUCH MORE AT THE JUMP]

…[Question:] Have any American allies and partners raised concerns about this situation?
What I’ve heard overall is that we’re standing firm together. Part of the message is that this is not just a U.S.-Turkey discussion, this is an F-35 users group discussion because we’ve got to protect this technology not just for the U.S. but for all who invest in the F-35 because we all share the secrets we have to protect. So there’s pretty good solidarity among the F-35 users that we’re on the right path. There’s also pretty good solidarity that there’s still hope that we’re going to somehow work our way through this, with Turkey as a valuable ally. That we’ll work to some kind of a solution on the back end of this."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/smr/a-moder ... le-it-out/

[spazsinbad]

Aside from the eye-rolling use of the phrase "stealth mode," I thought this was an interesting analysis from CSIS:

Analysts have been scratching their heads as to the U.S. failure to dissuade Erdogan, but Occam’s razor may be helpful here. Erdogan may want the S-400 for the exact reason the United States does not want Turkey to have it: precisely because it is built to shoot down the American-made aircraft currently operated by the Turkish Air Force. Both political and military aspects of the S-400 decision make sense inasmuch as Erdogan’s top priority is his own political survival.

Source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/coup-proo ... 0-decision

"...Besides political and economic benefits, Turkey may also want the S-400 for unique military reasons, namely the capability to shoot down aircraft operated by the Turkish Air Force.

A Capability to Shoot Down Its Own Planes
During the Turkish military’s attempted coup in July 2016, Turkish F-16 pilots bombed the Turkish Parliament and threatened Erdogan’s own plane. In the months that followed, Erdogan tried to “coup-proof” the country through mass arrests and by reportedly purging some 2,600 military officers, including half of Turkey’s fighter pilots. Acquiring the S-400 may, in short, be part of Erdogan’s hedge against another coup, both by deepening his strategic relationship with Russia and by acquiring specific air defenses meant to combat another attempt to overthrow him...."

[lbk000]

Word on the street is Erdogan just died of a heart attack.

Unconfirmed from AP right now though so hold on to your hats.

[steve2267]

Word on the street is Erdogan just died of a heart attack.

Unconfirmed from AP right now though so hold on to your hats.

I didn't know he had dirt on Bill & Hillary.

[madrat]

Scary, but it appears the Turks will be looking for a new president. The rumors are starting to look more like non-fiction. This is the second time he had wild rumors of death from a heart attack, but the 2016 rumor turned out to be fiction based on some truth about his ill health. The Turks seem to have had a rash of heart attacks killing off lower level political leaders in the past 90 days. Erdogan has been under extreme stress after the death of Morsi in Egypt and he might have had reason to believe he was the next target. I guess the moral of the fable is, don't be a dick and believe there is no consequence.

[Corsair1963]

Nothing posted on the BBC......

[spazsinbad]

Lockheed Martin Confident Other Customers Will Buy Turkey’s F-35s
23 Jul 2019 Ben Werner

"Lockheed Martin is confident new customers will step forward to buy the F-35 Lighting II Joint Strike Fighters intended for Turkey, company executives said during a Tuesday conference call with analysts....

...Lockheed Martin developed contingency plans if Turkey was removed from the program, Hewson said. Now, analysts want to know what Lockheed Martin plans to do with eight F-35A conventional takeoff and landing fighters designated for Turkey that are in various stages of production.

Finding new buyers for these aircraft will not be a problem, Hewson said. For example, while visiting the U.S. in June, Polish officials said they’re interested in purchasing 32 fighters. Japan has indicated it might want to increase its order, and other nations are evaluating the aircraft, Hewson said...."

Photo: "An F-35A Lightning II fighter jet takes off during Astral Knight 2019 on June 6, 2019, at Aviano Air Base, Italy. US Air Force Photo" https://news.usni.org/wp-content/upload ... 443730.jpg

Source: https://news.usni.org/2019/07/23/lockhe ... keys-f-35s

[johnwill]

F-16 faced a similar situation. Iran under the Shah had ordered 160 airplanes I believe. When the Shah fell, Israel was on the phone almost immediately asking to get those airplanes. That was the first batch of F-16s for Israel.

[Corsair1963]

I still believe a deal will be worked out. Even at this stage....Yet, like many not sure I want one???

[spazsinbad]

DOD To Compensate F-35 Suppliers For Turkey Costs
23 Jul 2019 Steve Trimble

"The U.S. government will compensate F-35 suppliers for any financial costs caused by the expulsion of Turkey from the program, a Lockheed Martin executive says. “If there is any harm to industry, we will be compensated for that,” says Kenneth Possenriede, Lockheed’s chief financial officer, speaking to analysts on a July 23 earnings call. The Pentagon announced a decision on July 16 to ban Turkey’s government and industry from the F-35 program over deliveries …"

Source: https://aviationweek.com/awindefense/do ... rkey-costs

[krieger22]

https://www.defenseone.com/politics/201 ... ef=d-river

Graham: I Told Turkey They Can Avoid Sanctions If They Don’t Activate Russian Radar

Sen. Lindsay Graham says President Trump asked him to make the call.

This story has been updated to include additional reporting.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on the request of President Trump called Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu with a simple pitch on Wednesday: Just don’t activate the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system.

“I’m in the camp of, if they don’t activate the S-400, the sanctions don’t have to be applied. My hope is to persuade Turkey not to active the system because it’s so disruptive to the relationship,” Graham told Defense One. “My pitch to Turkey was, let’s stand down on the S-400, let’s start free trade agreement negotiations.”

Turkey took possession of components of the system earlier this month, prompting the White House to boot Ankara out of the F-35 program in response and triggering the possibility of U.S. sanctions.

The U.S. relationship with NATO ally Turkey “takes a very dark turn” if the system is activated, Graham said.

Trump has expressed some ambivalence about punishing Turkey for buying the S-400 over the U.S.-made Patriot system, which Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan had tried to purchase in the past, but was stymied by the Obama administration. (Analysts and officials have disputed this account.)

At a private meeting with Republican senators on Tuesday, Trump asked lawmakers for “flexibility” in responding to the purchase, NBC News reported — rather than immediately implementing the congressionally-mandated sanctions that some lawmakers want to move quickly to use.

Following the meeting at the White House, Trump “told me to call Turkey,” Graham said.

“I think there’s space to do a free trade agreement if we don’t activate the system,” Graham said. “If the system gets activated, there are no options left, the [sanctions] law is clear.”

Trump’s decision to dispatch a senator, rather than a Cabinet-level administration official, to talk to the Turkish foreign minister quickly raised eyebrows on Thursday. It’s the second high-profile incidence in a week of Trump choosing an ally in the upper chamber to tackle a sensitive diplomatic issue; he tasked Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., with meeting with the Iranian foreign minister last week.

“Why Graham? Where’s the secretaries of State and Defense? Isn’t this their job?” said former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, in an email.

Other Republicans have also expressed ambivalence about coming down too hard on Turkey for purchasing the system. House Armed Services Ranking Member Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, on Wednesday said that while cutting Turkey out of the F-35 program is an appropriate step, additional sanctions against a NATO ally “is a harder question.”

“Maybe you would look at certain sanctions, but I think it’s important not to just go too far in a way that would make it hard for Turkey to reconcile back with the United States and NATO, post Erdoğan. It’s a fine line,” Thornberry told reporters on Capitol Hill.

“Turkey is and continues to be a very important country, a very important NATO ally, we have lots of things that we do with them. You want to send a message, but you don’t want to alienate them forever.”

[southerncross]

Graham: I Told Turkey They Can Avoid Sanctions If They Don’t Activate Russian Radar

I hope they don't believe for a second such ludicrous proposition would be even considered by the Turkish side, lest they conclude US officials are out of their minds.

A more enlightening explanation of this whole situation, by ex-deputy chief of staff gen. (ret) Ergin Saygun on past 15th of July at the Turkish Heritage Organization:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL7-5RkkQ98

The intervention of the Turkish general starts around minute 11

So clear, so concise and so fitting to the events, not much more needs to be said.

[spazsinbad]

Interesting that the Turkish ex-General thinks the 'F-35 secrets' are already known to Russia, China and others. How? Sad.