The Turkey problem

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mixelflick

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Unread post24 Feb 2019, 15:16

durahawk wrote:I think it's pretty clear that Erdogan sees the S-400 more valuable than the F-35 at this point. When you throw half of your fighter pilots in jail, and remain suspicious of the other half, this is a natural result.

The S-400 can be brought under centralized control of trusted agents, it's a classic self preservation move.


This is sounding more and more like F-14/Iran by the day.

Trump was right to deny delivery. At this point, S-400 or not I'd deny delivery. If they're that unstable and already have 1 foot in the radical Muslim (American hating) world, why chance it? Turkey can make due with a nice mix of S-400's and Russian jets.

They can ask India how that's worked out for 'em...
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RMR_22

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Unread post24 Feb 2019, 16:18

I have heard that it is possible that Lokheed buys the F-35 Turks in American territory and sells them to Israel.Is this really possible?
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Corsair1963

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Unread post25 Feb 2019, 01:57

I am sure the US will keep producing the Turkish F-35's. Which, they will put into storage until the matter is resolved. :?
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Corsair1963

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Unread post25 Feb 2019, 02:03

mixelflick wrote:Isn't this as big an offense/defense decision for Turkey, as much as it is a political one?

Getting the S-400 means beefing up its defensive capabilities. If you believe the brochures, dramatically so. But it doesn't buy them any offense. Forgoing the S-400 and going with the F-35 (and now they're talking B's too) would give them a more offensive capability (while it could also be used to perform DCA).

If I'm a Turkish military man, that seems like an easy decision.

Why are they so hell bent on S-400's?


Simple really...........Turkey want's access to Patriot Technology but the US won't grant it. So, they threaten to buy the S-400 instead. Thinking the US will relent in order to stop the sale of the latter.
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blindpilot

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Unread post25 Feb 2019, 03:35

mixelflick wrote:Isn't this ... Forgoing the S-400 and going with the F-35 (and now they're talking B's too) would give them a more offensive capability (while it could also be used to perform DCA).
If I'm a Turkish military man, that seems like an easy decision ..


As mentioned earlier ... they don't have any fighter pilots. They are all in prison ... except those in the US ... and like, .. they aren't going straight to jail, without collecting $200, coming from the poluted US influence? Yeah, sure, bet on that in Vegas!

They may want F-35s but if you got no pilots ... just have to use missiles I guess.

MHO,
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Corsair1963

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Unread post25 Feb 2019, 08:04

blindpilot wrote:
As mentioned earlier ... they don't have any fighter pilots. They are all in prison ... except those in the US ... and like, .. they aren't going straight to jail, without collecting $200, coming from the poluted US influence? Yeah, sure, bet on that in Vegas!

They may want F-35s but if you got no pilots ... just have to use missiles I guess.

MHO,
BP


What an "absurd" statement! I suppose you can back that up with credible sources??? :doh:
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steve2267

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Unread post25 Feb 2019, 16:23

Corsair1963 wrote:
blindpilot wrote:
As mentioned earlier ... they don't have any fighter pilots. They are all in prison ... except those in the US ... and like, .. they aren't going straight to jail, without collecting $200, coming from the poluted US influence? Yeah, sure, bet on that in Vegas!

They may want F-35s but if you got no pilots ... just have to use missiles I guess.

MHO,
BP


What an "absurd" statement! I suppose you can back that up with credible sources??? :doh:


Knowing Blind the little that I do... and having met the man... I do not think this is an argument you can win. FWIW.

Also, not to provoke a fight or an argument in itself... what if his sources are
  1. Personal experience
  2. personal contacts with people actually involved in one form or another

How would someone cite those "sources", and would you accept them? Or are only "media sources" acceptable to you?
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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blindpilot

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Unread post25 Feb 2019, 17:28

Corsair1963 wrote:
blindpilot wrote:
As mentioned earlier ... they don't have any fighter pilots. They are all in prison ... They may want F-35s but if you got no pilots ... just have to use missiles I guess.
MHO,
BP


What an "absurd" statement! I suppose you can back that up with credible sources??? :doh:


Well "all in prison" is certainly hyperbole, but there are enough to severely cripple the capability of the force. My sources are first hand from those leaving Turkey. For obvious reasons, I can't cite them.
The reasons? well how about -
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/05/worl ... tions.html
But these are folks who loved Turkey, and her people, and expected to live out most of their lives there, and would never leave unless they feared for their families ... now they are in the US. Whatever that means.

Not sure what the controlled press is saying, but I know what the people in the streets of her cities and towns feel and fear. When a dictator becomes paranoid about a coup, the people quickly become paranoid of him. It can be a self fulfilling prophesy even when there was "nothing there" before.

Open source general reports continue even into this year
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 546879733/ but it runs deeper than those reports, reflected in stories over the last few years
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/worl ... ule=inline

<sarc on> But sure, if you want to believe that all the Air Force fighter pilots have walked goose step like good little Hitler Youth, and none of them were scooped up in the crack down, and the military as whole continues uneffected, who am I to pop your balloon? <sarc off>
:doh: :doh: :roll:

FWIW,
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marsavian

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Unread post05 Mar 2019, 13:47

Final warning time :

U.S. issues stern warning of "grave consequences" for Turkey over purchase of S-400s

https://ahvalnews.com/us-turkey/us-issu ... ase-s-400s
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Unread post05 Mar 2019, 20:10

Top US general in Europe: Don’t give Turkey F-35 if they buy Russian system
05 Mar 2019 Aaron Mehta & Joe Gould

"WASHINGTON — The top uniformed officer in NATO and the head of American forces in Europe said Tuesday that if Turkey goes through with its decision to buy a Russian air defense system, he would recommend the Pentagon refuse to give Ankara its planned purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

Testifying in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti said it would be his “best military advice" that sales to Turkey of the F-35 be cut, should that nation buy the S-400 air defense system.

“If they accept the S-400 to establish it in Turkey, there is first the issue that it’s not interoperable with NATO systems, nor is it interoperable inside of our integrated missile defense system. The second has to do with the F-35. It presents a problem to all of our aircraft, but specifically the F-35, I believe,” Scaparrotti said....

...But Scaparrotti’s statement is particularly notable, as he also serves as supreme allied commander of NATO. His comments come weeks after the Munich Security Conference, where U.S. Vice President Mike Pence warned Turkey that “we will not stand idly by while NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries. We cannot ensure the defense of the West if our allies grow dependent on the East."..."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... an-system/
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mixelflick

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Unread post06 Mar 2019, 15:43

Have to agree, no F-35 for Turkey.

Don't understand their reasoning, and preference for the S-400. Purely defensive weapons, which is all well and good. But the F-35 buys them not just defense, but whole lotta' offense too. They may not have offensive ambitions beyond going after the Kurds, but surely their NATO obligations would have them dropping bombs if another Iraq/Afghanistan type situation called for it?

Oh well, let them order the SU-57 instead. By the time it's ready for export, our 6th gen's will be flying..
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Unread post07 Mar 2019, 10:04

I wonder if EGO DANNO understands SWEDISH? The report here (English from ALERT5) in SWEDISH makes NO SENSE to me.

OOPS! This PDF is English - my brain gets twisted by SWEDENISH text: https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI-R--4651--SE

Because the initial PDF is bitter & twisted (or TWITTER & BISTED) it has been Reprinted PRN to be attached below....
Swedish Defence Research Agency says Russia’s A2/AD bubble can be defeated, Israelis have done it
07 Mar 2019 ALERT5

"FOI, the Swedish Defence Research Agency, has published a new paper “Bursting the Bubble? Russian A2/AD in the Baltic Sea Region: Capabilities, Countermeasures, and Implications.”

The FOI concluded in its report that Russia’s A2/AD capabilities “do not create any large, impenetrable bubble.”
The authors added that “analyzis of air operations over Syria likewise suggest that even late-model Russian manufactured air defence systems can be vulnerable to a range of countermeasures.” They cite Israel’s air strikes in Syria while under the threat of modern Russian air defense missile systems as an example.

The report also question the effectiveness of the S-400 air defense missile system’s 40N6 missile interceptor. Russia has not demonstrate that it has Cooperative Engagement Capability that is necessary for the 40N6 to hit its target at the maximum range of 400km."

PERHAPS SOMETHING IN ENGLISH HERE BUT?: https://www.foi.se/rapportsammanfattnin ... --4651--SE

MIRACULOUS - this ENGRISH Appeared:
"Abstract
States with the ability to use a combination of sensors and long-range missiles to prevent adversaries from operating in an exclusion zone, or "bubble", adjacent to their territory are said to possess anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. This study examines Russia's A2/AD systems and their implications for the Baltic Sea region. Much has in recent years been made of Russia's new capabilities and the impact they might have on the ability of NATO member states to reinforce or defend the vulnerable Baltic states in case of crisis or war. On closer inspection, however, Russia's capabilities are not quite as daunting, especially if potential countermeasures are factored in. In particular, surface-to-air missile systems currently create much smaller A2/AD bubbles than is often assumed and a number of countermeasures are possible. Experiences from Syria also raise questions about the actual capabilities of such systems in combat, relative to their nominal capabilities. Anti-ship and anti-land systems pose a greater threat but, here too, countermeasures are available. The dynamics of this strategic vortex affect Sweden directly and indirectly. This is one of the reasons why Sweden's security is increasingly interlocked with that of its neighbours and of the transatlantic alliance."


Source: http://alert5.com/2019/03/07/swedish-de ... more-74494
Attachments
FOIR4651SE PRN pp116.pdf
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Last edited by spazsinbad on 07 Mar 2019, 10:16, edited 5 times in total.
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marsavian

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Unread post07 Mar 2019, 10:05

Hard decisions will have to be made ...

Turkey buying Russian S-400s a done deal: Erdogan

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkey- ... an/1411168

Turkey’s president said Wednesday that Ankara has finalized an agreement on purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile defense system.

"We concluded the S-400 issue, signed a deal with the Russians, and will start co-production,” said Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking in a televised interview.

"Later, we may work with S-500s," the next generation system, Erdogan said.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post07 Mar 2019, 10:55

marsavian wrote:Hard decisions will have to be made ...

Turkey buying Russian S-400s a done deal: Erdogan

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkey- ... an/1411168

Turkey’s president said Wednesday that Ankara has finalized an agreement on purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile defense system.

"We concluded the S-400 issue, signed a deal with the Russians, and will start co-production,” said Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking in a televised interview.

"Later, we may work with S-500s," the next generation system, Erdogan said.



Sounds like the USAF/ANG have their F-15C replacement. :wink:
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Corsair1963

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Unread post07 Mar 2019, 11:02

marsavian wrote:Hard decisions will have to be made ...

Turkey buying Russian S-400s a done deal: Erdogan

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkey- ... an/1411168

Turkey’s president said Wednesday that Ankara has finalized an agreement on purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile defense system.

"We concluded the S-400 issue, signed a deal with the Russians, and will start co-production,” said Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking in a televised interview.

"Later, we may work with S-500s," the next generation system, Erdogan said.



Funny, that the story doesn't even mention the F-35. Nor, what Turkey is going to do when the US refuses to deliver them. Which, is all but inevitable at this point..... :?
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