The Turkey problem

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arian

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Unread post10 Jul 2017, 07:04

At the risk of attracting a certain character who, hopefully, has disappeared from F-16.net (he hasn't spammed in a while. Lets not jinx it)...the problems in Turkey and with Turkey have little to do with dictatorships or secularism or these things, in my opinion. These are Western issues and concepts. Democracy isn't a criteria the US has used, or should use, on whom it allies with. Most of the countries in third world or newly industrialized world were dictatorships when we allied with them, and most didn't become democracies until fairly recently in the 90s. And democracies in these countries are usually chaos, mob rule, or bipolar in nature. So I personally don't care about that. Some countries can't have democracy nor should they ever try (eg Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Libya...the usual)

Secluarism in that part of the world simply means people who live in the 21st century vs those who live in the 18th century. But secularism isn't all it's cut out to be. Secularism in the third world is usually radical leftism and populism (no, not in the sense the US media uses the term to describe Trump. I'm talking mob rule). Basically what we've seen in Egypt since their revolution, which keep in mind was mostly a secular revolution by "young facebook users". Most of them were crazy Marxists.

Mtrman says PKK/YPG are Marxist Trotsykiets etc. Yeah, so what? Pretty much every "secular" group in the ME has its roots in some form of Marxism or at least is what we in the West would call radical leftists. Same goes for much of Turkey's political movements and the "secular urban young". Remember when they were protesting over a mall that was going to be build in some park in Istanbul? Communist flags everywhere, violent leftists everywhere. What is a "modern urban secular movement" in the ME is indistinguishable from what in the West experienced with Occupy Wall Street. So they're all the same s**t as far as I'm concerned. None of them are pro-Western. None of them share the same values we do. None of them are worth our support, as far as I'm concerned.

That was the big argument for the US to support the Arab Spring in Egypt and Tunisia and elsewhere early on. No you can't just put it all on the feet of Obama. In the early days of Tahrir Square, almost all Republicans were saying why isn't Obama supporting the protesters etc. They reversed their tune pretty quickly once Mubarak was overthrown, but initially that was the argument from the US right as well. Turns out...there are no good guys in that part of the world. Secular, democracy blah blah blah. Those are empty words in this context. Saudi Arabia is a religious dictatorship...but hell, I like their government and trust their government a lot more than many others. The Shah was a dictator, and he was good too.

The problem is the people in all these ME countries. The people, whether they are religious fundamentalists, or secular modernists, are by and large pretty damn volatile, bipolar, and prone to fantasies. They can't be trusted very much with popular rule. Yes there are plenty of exceptions: in almost all those cases they are either cultural, ethnic or socio-economic minorities (like in Lebanon, where the "not so crazy" ones are both cultural minorities (the French-speakers), or religious minorities (Christians and Druze)). The reason why the...people...are a problem in most of the third world is because in the third world there is no such thing as a middle class. There's upper class elite, and those still living in the 18th century, with a small middle class of merchants. That's why there's always problems when they become more democratic: the mob is huge and very dumb, and almost instantly leads right back to dictatorships like Erdogan's

The question is: are they a reliable long-term partner of the West. The problem with Turkey is that it is not a reliable partner. It is a partner which threatens you at every turn and which hates your guts. It is a partner who's mouth is bigger than its brain.
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spazsinbad

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Unread post16 Nov 2017, 23:02

US official: If Turkey buys Russian systems, they can’t plug into NATO tech
16 Nov 2017 Valerie Insinna

"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — If Turkey moves forward with its buy of a Russian air defense system, it will not be permitted to plug into NATO technology, and further action may be forthcoming that could affect the country’s acquisition or operation of the F-35, a top Air Force official said Wednesday....

...Heidi Grant, deputy undersecretary of the Air Force for international affairs, was unable to say exactly what course of action the United States would pursue if Turkey purchases the S-400. “As a major NATO ally, we haven’t really looked into this yet,” she said in a Nov. 15 interview. “We’re going to have to start looking at, if they are going to go through with this, how we can be interoperable in the future. But right now, I can tell you our policies do not allow us to be interoperable with that system.”

Further complicating the issue is the planned delivery of Turkey’s first F-35s in 2018. Analysts worry that Turkey operating both the S-400 and F-35 together could compromise the jet’s security, as any data collected by the air defense system and obtained by Russia could help expose the joint strike fighter’s vulnerabilities. For a platform like the F-35, whose major strengths are its stealth and data fusion capabilities, that would be a disaster.

Grant agreed that a S-400 acquisition creates issues for Turkey’s use of the F-35. “It’s a significant concern, not only to the United States, because we need to protect this high end technology, fifth-generation technology” but for “all of our partners and allies that have already purchased the F-35,” she said. As far as potential actions the United States might take, Grant said the government will have to work through its options....

...What happens next?
Neither Grant nor Pavel have been willing to detail how the United States and NATO could respond to Turkey’s S-400 procurement, especially with regards to Turkey’s role in the F-35 program, and there’s no clear historical precedent.

Whenever the United States makes an agreement to export weapons to a foreign partner, that country is required to sign an agreement allowing the U.S. to do end-use monitoring to ensure it is not compromising sensitive technologies or information. That can include anything from a “check on how they are using the technology, who is on the same base with them [and] access that other countries may have to our high end technology,” noted Grant.

But the F-35 is not a typical program, being conceived of from the get-go as a partnership among countries that would pay to develop the jet, as well as reap the industrial benefits of building it.

Turkey is entrenched in the program on multiple levels — from the money it has spent to help design it, the more than 100 planes it plans to buy, to Turkish Aerospace Industries’ work on the center fuselage of every F-35, and the country’s role as a sustainment hub for the international joint strike fighter community. It’s not exactly clear what would happen if the United States rolls back its participation in the program.

Turkey’s industrial contributions to the F-35 are “easily replicable elsewhere” should the U.S. government decide to drop Turkey as an international partner on the program, Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst for the Teal Group, told Defense News in an interview ahead of Dubai Airshow.

“The real greater concern is just pushing a large emerging military and economic power out of NATO and into something different and not at all in Western interests,” he said. “It’s a very big deal. It’s so big that I don’t think anyone knows quite what to do with it.”

Individual members of Congress have raised concerns about the Turkish government’s recent shift from NATO, but so far have not sounded alarm bells about an S-400 acquisition. In the past, lawmakers have had difficulty implementing restrictions on the country’s acquisition of the F-35. For instance, Rep. David Cicilline, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, tried to block sales of the F-35 to Turkey in July after Turkish security personnel attacked protesters in Washington earlier in 2017. However, the amendment ultimately died without ever getting a vote....

...“They are a sovereign nation, they can choose to go with other partners,” Grant said of the UAE’s work with Russian on a fifth-gen fighter. “But I have made it very clear that it makes it a little more difficult for our partnership as a coalition because we will not be interoperable. As of right now, our current policies are, we would not be interoperable with Russian equipment.”

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... nato-tech/
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
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neptune

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Unread post17 Nov 2017, 03:18

spazsinbad wrote:...... further action may be forthcoming that could affect the country’s acquisition or operation of the F-35, a top Air Force official said Wednesday.......Heidi Grant, deputy undersecretary of the Air Force for international affairs, was unable to say exactly what course of action the United States would pursue if Turkey purchases the S-400....


....talk is cheap, as always....but.... time is short!!

LRIP 10 is now building and delivers for "2018" (next year for you who can't count) and.....Turkey will receive 2 F-35A Block 3F before the end of the year. ...and ....and

LRIP 11 is around the corner with... 4 F-35A Block 3F followed by ....wait for it... the

MYP-1 with (yes, you guessed it) 24 more F-35A Block 3F for a grand total of 30 F-35A Block 3F by the end of 2022 (5 years)!!

The Luke AFB 63rd FS (01Aug16) will train F-35 Lightning II fighter pilots as a joint international effort between Turkey and the United States. Turkish and American pilots will fly both Turkish and American F-35s under the guidance of American instructor pilots.

....so the Turkish/ Lockheed association for the last 25ish yrs. of building and delivering 240ish F-16s (soon all to be block 50+) and SDD support for the F-35 program to the tune of $12 Billion dollars in opportunities as a 15yr. Level 3 partner is going to be more than "sorry, we aren't selling you the F-35.. nahny!..nahny!"

....regardless of personal opinion of politics, this program looks to be not only on schedule but on budget!
:)

IMHO the Turkish F-35As from LRIP11 and MYP-1 (28 a/c) will all deliver to Turkish squadrons at Turkish airbases (maybe in 3s or 4s like Norway); who and where is unknown at this time!
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Unread post17 Nov 2017, 14:22

The problem goes both ways. I am sure NATO would love to take a Turkish S400 system apart.....bolt by bolt.....Mig 25 stylee. What an intelligence coup that will be! I have a funny feeling that Russia would sell Turkey a half arsed version of the S400......can’t show all your cards to your adversaries!
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Unread post17 Nov 2017, 16:52

Except that while Russia sells "Monkey Models", we don't.
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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 03:11

Interesting claim, but obviously untrue.
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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 05:00

Which claim?
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madrat

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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 05:06

That the U.S. does not sell the 'monkey model' exports.
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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 05:45

madrat wrote:That the U.S. does not sell the 'monkey model' exports.


Do I really have to dig up, again, multiple quotes that all F-35s are virtually identical and the only difference relates to IFF & Crypto?

Not to mention that current F-15/16 exports are better than the ones flying in the US.
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Dragon029

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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 07:25

While that's generally the case with aircraft, don't forget that there's things like M1A1 / M1A2s sold to partners with downgraded armour, etc.
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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 09:03

The DU armor was an addon, not a downgrade.

I almost forgot, allies get AIM-120Ds, ESSMs, Mk-41s, B-61s, the Aegis system, etc.

If anything the US selling an MM would be an "exception" to the rule.
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mas

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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 12:17

The Turkey problem is basically Erdogan, an openly Islamic dictator with a sultan complex. The guy has no intelligence or sense worthy of the name. He tried to pick a fight with Russia using NATO as his backup but backed down once Russian sanctions started crucifying his economy. He regularly picks rude fights with the EU, Iraq, Syria, recently admonished Israel over Kurdistan, slated NATO and he's now cozying up to Iran. Basically whoever feeds his eqo is ok in his book and vice versa. He is a complete loose cannon and does the West really want to enable this loose cannon some more with some very hard to shoot down F-35s ?!

An intelligent strategic decision should be made about this especially when the majority of the Turkish population now sees the US as an enemy primarily over the support to Isis fighting Kurds.

http://m.yenisafak.com/en/news/turkish- ... ll-2659856
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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 12:48

mother hen doesn't like it, when a chick goes off and gets another worm. The shoot don't shoot software is strong in this one, usa sets the targets. as to the Russians and china crawling all over it. turkey will have to get behind Israel and japan.
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mtrman

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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 14:44

Well, there are some people (such as mas) in this thread who jumps to the opportunity of attacking Islam and Turks by using the Erdogan.

1) He is a politician who is elected democratically. If you really wonder why he was elected, then you should study a bit about modern Turkish history and how the muslims were suppressed for many years.

2) Before speaking about Erdogan's actions and preferrences, you should learn about the following items, which are the driving reasons of today's situation:
- Who is directly, mentally and pysically carried out the coup attempt last year? (Gulen organisation)
- Who is Gulen and when and how his enormiously big (economically and politically) structure established. (almost 40 years ago, directly established/supported by USA/CIA (search about Kasım Gülek and Fethullah Gülen))
- What is the purpose of this establishment? (a global and long term project of CIA which aim to gain political and military strength in muslim countries, and also to change islam religion for the benefit of the western world)
- How USA and Germany are still clearly protecting Gulen and his group.
- Who is pure marxist/communist/terrorist Abdullah Ocalan, PKK and PYD.
- Are USA and Germany clearly and shamelessly support PKK/PYD? (Unfortunately yes)
- Who is the gangster Daesh (ISIS)? Who established them? How the Daesh saved the Assad?
- How the anti-muslim, anti-arab, anti-turkish PKK/PYD state is being tried to be established in the northern Syria (and Iraq) by perfectly using Daesh?
- How and why the uprising in Syria started? How Assad/Iran/Russia killed 600-700 thousand people by dropping barrel bombs everyday for 6 years, how they managed to flee millions of people? How they succeeded to make Syria an Alawit/Shia country, which had 80% sunni muslims majority before the uprising?
- Why USA and many western countries did almost nothing militarily and economically for those millions of people, which Turkey now hosts 3 million of them???

I tried to provide some short answers to some of them. If you would like to argue about the above questions, I am ready to slam the rock solid facts to your face. I don't have so much time, but I can do. On the other hand I don't want to turn this very nice forum into a political arena because of some liers.

In very short summary, it is the western world who clearly betrayed Turkey in the last 6-7 years...

And what about S400? I actually don't understand why we purchase them. It gave the Turkey/Muslim haters the reason to politically attack. On the other hand, can one or two S400 batteries provide a strong air space protection? Of course no. So what is the reason? I really don't know...
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mas

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Unread post18 Nov 2017, 16:42

Turkey was doing a pretty good impersonation of covertly supporting Isis when it suited them i.e. when they were attacking Kurds and Assad.

https://www.rt.com/news/337079-turkey-i ... -evidence/
https://www.rt.com/news/340897-isis-oil ... ria-turkey
https://www.rt.com/news/330204-israel-turkey-isis-oil/
https://www.rt.com/news/327222-isis-fig ... -training/
https://www.rt.com/news/326728-iraq-rub ... -isis-oil/
https://www.rt.com/news/325044-isis-oil-turkey-iraq/

How do you solve your Kurdish problem, how about giving them the state they were promised in 1920. You will never end an indigenous people's desire for self-determination by oppression.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29702440
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