Finnish DefMin interested in F-35s, not Gripens

[steve2267]

Unrelated, but interesting:

"The best outcome of a F-35 win in Finland would be that maybe they’d get a crazy metal band to come to Fort Worth and play at a 9am rollout ceremony."
https://twitter.com/ValerieInsinna/stat ... 9378455554

Interesting if you so find it. However, I have pretty much stopped paying any heed to Valerie Insinna after some rather drab, and frankly poor reporting on things F-35. She's better than Axe, I suppose, but who isn't? That's not saying much. FWIW.

[hythelday]

"German deputy ambassador to Finland says @Team_Luftwaffe will acquire up to 38 Tranche 4 jets to replace its early Tranche 1 aircraft. Production in 2025 will align with Finnish plans @FinnishAirForce @eurofighter #HXChallenge #hxhanke" (aka Project Quadriga)

LOL, worst advertisment ever.

"So yo are looking for a future-proof fighter? Why don't you buy some Eurofighters, like us. We will buy them to replace other, obsolete Eurofighters. The Brits are doing it too!"

[marsavian]

The Brits are keeping their Tranche 1 single seaters for QRA and aggressor work. The only update they will receive in the future is AIM-120D as they will be sticking to Captor-M and will not be adapted to Meteor. In the 2030s they will be in line to be replaced by Tempest or F35B (maybe even F-35A) if the former never gets off the ground. As for industrial work/offsets for Finland becoming important I would suggest Gripen E would then become favorite. It might even sneak it on running costs too. Typhoon/Rafale are just turning up for show (too expensive) so it's between the two US fighters and Gripen. F-35 is the most capable unitary airframe, Stealth/EW, but Super Hornet is quite similar to Hornet so can use the legacy ammunition/kit and has a Growler version if needed. Gripen E can Growl on its own quite well too.

[magitsu]

BAE is selling the independence angle hard. Likely to be repeated by other non-US candidates. There are some challenges in the national sovereign data for F-35. Likely more about cost of infrastructure than actual restrictions that can't be managed. Also it's quite dry at this point for business opportunity vs. established partners.
Nevertheless, they might be grasping at straws.

https://corporalfrisk.com/2020/01/11/hx ... ependence/

[Corsair1963]

"German deputy ambassador to Finland says @Team_Luftwaffe will acquire up to 38 Tranche 4 jets to replace its early Tranche 1 aircraft. Production in 2025 will align with Finnish plans @FinnishAirForce @eurofighter #HXChallenge #hxhanke" (aka Project Quadriga)

LOL, worst advertisment ever.

"So yo are looking for a future-proof fighter? Why don't you buy some Eurofighters, like us. We will buy them to replace other, obsolete Eurofighters. The Brits are doing it too!"

Odds are very much in favor of Finland acquiring the F-35. Germany is dreaming if they think they would buy Typhoons from them...

[spazsinbad]

Finland’s Multi-role Fighter Challenge Gets Under Way
11 Jan 2020 David Donald

"... Lockheed Martin F-35A assigned the period from February 7 to 17....

Under the HX Challenge, the five types will be put through a series of trials centered around Pirkkala that will amount to seven test-flying days each. Air-to-air missions will be performed against Ilmavoimat Hornets and Hawks. The planning and execution of the HX Challenge is being handled by the Air Combat Center of the Satakunta Air Command. Army and navy agencies are also involved to assess the contenders' ability to support land and maritime operations. The specific requirements for HX call for the aircraft to be capable of conducting counter-air, counter-land, counter-sea, and long-range strike missions, as well as intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and target acquisition.

Basing the evaluation in Finland not only allows the defense ministry to design the tests to be fair to all bidders but also assesses each candidate’s performance and capabilities in the Finnish winter environment. While the aircraft themselves have all been proven for cold-weather operations, sustained activities in combinations of freezing temperatures, snow, rain and sleet inevitably have some adverse effects, and can also affect the performance of electro-optical and other sensors.

Additional tests may be performed subsequently by manufacturers in their own countries, and other metrics will be evaluated through the use of simulators. Overall, the HX Challenge is designed to verify the claimed performance of each candidate, rather than pit them against each other in a five-way fly-off.

The HX Challenge represents the first phase of the performance evaluation process. The second phase will be conducted in simulators to assess the success of four-aircraft flights in the key missions set out in the requirement, based on the performance values verified in the flying assessment. A third phase will see how the contenders fare in a long-term wargaming evaluation...."

Source: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... -under-way

[hornetfinn]

EF Typhoons got pretty nice weather for their week. Not much rain, snow, sleet or freezing temperatures for them. It has been fairly sunny with temperatures between -5 to +5 degrees Celsius (23 to 41 Fahrenheit). It seems like Dassault Rafale might also get similar weather when they come next week. I bet other candidates will get significantly different (likely worse) weather. I bet they try to compensate for the different weather conditions during the evaluation though.

[magitsu]

Here's a Typhoon takeoff with afterburners at high res from the HX Challenge. This kind of basic activities are verified in this stage. Whether they match the previously given data.

Equipment seems to be 2x under the wing externals and 2x ASRAAM. Then immediately after, F/A-18C with one center line external, just launch rails & without afterburners for comparison.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJFS9VZ94dw

In other news, jeez what a monstrosity is USN's rushed Infrared Search & Track (IRST) Block II for Super Hornet. F-35 IRST under the chin is a thing of beauty compared to that franken-fueltank. Since the HX project has mentioned wanting to stay in lockstep with the major user of the selected fighter, that could also appear instead of a more elegant integrated solution. https://twitter.com/BoeingDefense/statu ... 3562168320

[steve2267]

In other news, jeez what a monstrosity is USN's rushed Infrared Search & Track (IRST) Block II for Super Hornet. F-35 IRST under the chin is a thing of beauty compared to that franken-fueltank. Since the HX project has mentioned wanting to stay in lockstep with the major user of the selected fighter, that could also appear instead of a more elegant integrated solution. https://twitter.com/BoeingDefense/statu ... 3562168320

Wonder if it has any red at all in the color of that "cap"... Am thinking Block III Super Dupers should be called Rudolph.

[magitsu]

"So there's actually a bit more clarity around that #HX IOC figure. Here's what was presented at the kick-off of #HXChallenge last week, shows 2027 and deliveries starting in 2025."
(also a picture including info: Response RevRFq 1/2020, Negotiation rd IV 4-5/2020, Request for BAFO 7/2020, Response for BAFO 12/20, Contract 2021, Deliveries 2025, IOC 2027.)
https://twitter.com/securitysplat/statu ... 2317147137

"Original plan had IOC as being in the 2025-26 mark:" (FOC 2029-31)
https://twitter.com/securitysplat/statu ... 7341923329

"@DefenceFinland has told me that "IOC was initially planned on 2027-2028 and initial operations (BOC, Basic Operations Capability) was planned on 2025-2026.""
https://twitter.com/securitysplat/statu ... 8684157952

A bit messy to understand the difference between BOC and IOC.

[sunstersun]

Finland usually releases the test information to the public, hopefully we get solid competition stats comparing the jets.

[magitsu]

Finland usually releases the test information to the public, hopefully we get solid competition stats comparing the jets.

No it doesn't. I can't remember a single recent acquisition that has done so. For example we are still frantically trying to figure out how the Gabriel V won NSM/Harpoon/Exocet/RBS-15.

For example briefing for the government (government meeting where the winner was officially selected) when Hornets were purchased became public only 25 years later. From that we know how their purchase costs and estimated life cycle costs. Beyond that the now-deceased journalist speculates about certain things, you can google translate this yourself: https://www.iltalehti.fi/kotimaa/a/201707022200238131

So its unlikely to happen. It's been already pointed out by the project that most of the things are either opsec or company classified (to stay competitive in future bids).

[hornetfinn]

Now there is betting for money going on in Finland about which candidate will win the competition. These are the betting odds (Decimal odds):

Lockheed Martin F-35 1.60
Boeing FA-18 Super Hornet 3.50
Saab Gripen 3.75
Eurofighter Typhoon 10.00
Dassault Rafale 12.00

These were the initial odds:
Lockheed Martin F-35 2.15
Boeing FA-18 Super Hornet 3.00
Saab Gripen 3.75
Eurofighter Typhoon 6.25
Dassault Rafale 9.35

So it seems that F-35 is seen as the most likely candidate to win it and Rafale the least likely. I think I agree with the odds. Rafale and Typhoon are definitely seen as very unlikely to win.

[ricnunes]

Oh, it's a "petty" (note the quotes) that the odds favor the F-35 because if not then it would be a good way to win some money in that bet (in case people outside Finland are allowed to bet, that is).

My guess is that this means that betting in the F-35 and if it wins then there's not much money to be won.

[XanderCrews]

As for industrial work/offsets for Finland becoming important I would suggest Gripen E would then become favorite. It might even sneak it on running costs too.

What are you basing this on?

Super Hornet is quite similar to Hornet so can use the legacy ammunition/kit and has a Growler version if needed.

Not even the same thing

Gripen E can Growl on its own quite well too.

not even the same thing