Finnish DefMin interested in F-35s, not Gripens

[magitsu]

Minister of Defense Kaikkonen: "More accurate estimate of the cost of the HX project in the near future"

- The idea is also to narrow down the price disadvantage, this is a really massive investment.
So far, we have talked about EUR 7-10 billion, but we need to make a more accurate estimate of it soon.
At this point, five options are on the same line.
Next year, a careful assessment will be made of how these five options will fit in practice with the varying circumstances of Finland.
The tests will be careful and tough, but also fair.
The final procurement decision will be made in 2021, Kaikkonen tells Reserviläinen.

https://www.reservilainen.fi/uutiset/pu ... ahiaikoina

[magitsu]

This is very interesting.
They seem to be dropping the requirement of set amount of 64 jets, but more importantly what was 7-10 billion has now become max 10 billion.

Meaning this is starting to look like the deal of the decade in Europe.

Partial google translate:

From the project's point of view, we received clear and timely guidance from the political leadership, on the basis of which we can proceed with the project as planned in line with the defense statement. The revised call for tenders sent in late autumn was set at a price cap of EUR 10 billion. Within the price ceiling, a performance entity must be built that includes not only the machines and their weapon systems, but also other components required by the HX system. These include e.g. a support, training and maintenance system, changes to the management and information systems required for integration into the defense system, and the construction of security-critical infrastructure.

The Advanced Call for Proposals moves, as planned, to a model that invites bidders to provide full performance within a set price cap. Thus, if required or even enabled to remain within the price ceiling or to achieve full performance, the provider may offer 64 different quantities of machinery. However, the criteria for full replacement of performance will not change with the advanced call for tenders. The number of fighters and their ability to survive and to make losses have a significant impact on crisis prevention and the credibility and performance of the Finnish defense system. Quality cannot be replaced by quantity or quantity by quality, but both are needed to achieve credibility.

https://www.defmin.fi/puolustushallinto ... 10006.blog

The program maneger himself said about the contestants:
"In my view, there are no signs that any provider would leave the game at this stage. Confirmation will be obtained when manufacturers bring their machines to the January-February HX Challenge testing and verification event."

[Corsair1963]

Honestly, I still believe Finland will acquire the F-35. Assuming Trump didn't scare the Finnish President Sauli Niinistö during their recent meeting....

Yet, I doubt it because I am sure he does what's in the best interest of the Finish People.

[magitsu]

Honestly, I still believe Finland will acquire the F-35. Assuming Trump didn't scare the Finnish President Sauli Niinistö during their recent meeting....

Yet, I doubt it because I am sure he does what's in the best interest of the Finish People.

Trump should be long gone by 2025-30 when they should receive the fighters.

[mixelflick]

Honestly, I still believe Finland will acquire the F-35. Assuming Trump didn't scare the Finnish President Sauli Niinistö during their recent meeting....

Yet, I doubt it because I am sure he does what's in the best interest of the Finish People.

It's hard to see the Finn's going for anything other than the F-35, assuming that competition is fair. I mean honestly, look around! The dominoes are starting to fall almost as quickly as the price of the jet itself. Anyone flying Gripen in the European theater is really asking for it. It's not just the fact that in 5 scant years they won't be competitive, they're behind the 8 ball today! Only meteor is keeping its head above water, and that isn't going to last long. Imagine getting a factory fresh aircraft that's.... already obsolete.

Then again, we're building F-15EX's..

[magitsu]

The only truly interesting competitor to F-35 is the Boeing offer.

We already know that they include Growlers in the package. Imagine if they also could somehow drop in 737AEW&C (Swedish offer is ridiculous in this regard, 1&2 seater Gripens plus 2 GlobalEye, which are Bombardier Global 6500) . Then it would be really something compared to likely all F-35A offer. NGJ + Wedgetail.

Though I'm just kidding. FiAF likely couldn't afford to operate (crew mainly) Wedgetails. There's just one sigint CASA-C295 with LM's Dragon Shield container payload currently.

But that kind of package would truly blow non-F-35 packages out of the water.

[magitsu]

Finnish test schedule at Pirkkala Airport (Tampere, Finland)

10 Jan Eurofighter, 2-3 units
21 Jan Rafale
30 Jan Gripen, E test unit and C
10 Feb F-35, 4 units (like in Switzerland)
19 Feb Super Hornet, 2 SH and 1 Growler

Each has 9 days, which may overlap a bit with with prev/next.

All active/passive sensors won't be used. Some will be displayed in the US. Pentagon hasn't yet even cleared to display Growler's full range of capabilities.

This event is about validating claims. What matters more in the eventual performance review is simulated war game.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/kotimaa/a/ceba ... b64e408e72

[XanderCrews]

Thank you for all the information Magitsu!

[magitsu]

Thank you for all the information Magitsu!

[element1loop]

Nice ice testing WX.

[element1loop]

The only truly interesting competitor to F-35 is the Boeing offer. We already know that they include Growlers in the package.

RAAF acquired F/A-18F only as an interim capability to bridge between deep strike and maritime strike F-111s through to F-35A arrival (which is now later to IOC) due to risk, obsolescence and availability issues with F-111. The plan was to divest classic and SH soon after 2020. They would rather have more F-35A (or perhaps F-35B would be preferable, IMO, but more expensive, thus unlikely) over keeping the F/A-18F as a primary strike aircraft thereafter, i.e. if the budget politics stretched that far, and the capability need and threat level justified it (which they do). It was always intended EA-18G remained as an important support-jammer, but as far as I can tell, for supporting other ADF force elements, to aid their survival and mission success, rather than for F-35A or its weapons. I'm hoping the SH will go away fast, and Amberley gets F-35A strikers as early as possible, as the SH can not be fairly compared to F-35A in that role, IMO.

[magitsu]

RAAF acquired F/A-18F only as an interim capability

RAAF is interesting comparison:
On the other hand, available resources are completely different. We can only dream of Wedgetails.
Nevertheless, there's surprising amount of commonality. F/A-18 classic, JASSM (supposedly some software dev cost was even shared with Australia). Now there's the unique Growler offer (Germany should also really consider them given Tornado ECR serves the same role), which only RAAF operates besides the US.

Growlers certainly would cut it. But at cost. I've read that Australia has already used 500 million to develop NGJ. Super Hornet's viability is indeed trickier.

Boeing has recently also stated that they could offer UAV's to Finland. I wonder whether once again they mean something Australia-related, as in Loyal Wingman. Anyway, theirs is among the most complex packages aside the Saab's one with Gripen E, Brazil only F and Bombardier Global 6000/6500 based GlobalEye.

All F-35A package seems enticingly simple in comparison.

[spazsinbad]

Would be helpful if origin of claim: "...I've read that Australia has already used 500 million to develop NGJ...." is cited.

Meanwhile: 28 Feb 2017

"AVALON, Australia — Australian Defence Minister Marise Payne announced Tuesday that Australia has entered into an agreement with the U.S. Navy to develop the Next Generation Jammer for the Boeing EA-18G Growler, an airborne electronic attack aircraft. Payne announced the AUD $250 million (U.S. $192 million) investment during the opening day of the 2017 Australian International Airshow at Avalon, south of Melbourne.

"This is a $250 million investment by the Turnbull government that will [serve as] future proof [of[ the Growler's capability," she said. "As this is a rapidly evolving area, we will work in partnership with the United States Navy to develop the next-generation jamming capability, which will ensure that these aircraft remain at the technological forefront throughout their service life.

The Next Generation Jammer will form a key component of Project Air 5439 Phase 6, a future phase of Australia's Growler acquisition program, which will upgrade the EA-18G to what is known as the Advanced Growler configuration. The program will ensure commonality with U.S. Navy aircraft is maintained into the future and will develop a replacement for the Growler's current ALQ-99 jamming pods...." https://www.defensenews.com/air/2017/02 ... on-jammer/

[magitsu]

Would be helpful if origin of claim: "...I've read that Australia has already used 500 million to develop NGJ...." is cited.

Meanwhile: 28 Feb 2017

"AVALON, Australia — Australian Defence Minister Marise Payne announced Tuesday that Australia has entered into an agreement with the U.S. Navy to develop the Next Generation Jammer for the Boeing EA-18G Growler, an airborne electronic attack aircraft. Payne announced the AUD $250 million (U.S. $192 million) investment during the opening day of the 2017 Australian International Airshow at Avalon, south of Melbourne.

"This is a $250 million investment by the Turnbull government that will [serve as] future proof [of[ the Growler's capability," she said. "As this is a rapidly evolving area, we will work in partnership with the United States Navy to develop the next-generation jamming capability, which will ensure that these aircraft remain at the technological forefront throughout their service life."..." https://www.defensenews.com/air/2017/02 ... on-jammer/

True, it was 250 and aud mot us. What's not completely clear whether it was only for NGJ-MB develpoment or whole set of NGJ.

[spazsinbad]

Looks like the entire set of NGJ is way more expensive according to official 2017 details: [ OTHER STUFF such as F-35:
https://www.defence.gov.au/CASG/EquippingDefence/ ]

Advanced Growler Airborne Electronic Attack Capability
Sep 2017 RAAF Project Number: AIR 5349 Phase 6

"Project description
AIR5349 Phase 6 will introduce into Air Force service a number of enhancements to the Airborne Electronic Attack Capability (AEAC), including upgrades to the Electronic Warfare (EW) capability of the EA-18G Growler aircraft. These upgrades, such as the Next Generation Jammer (NGJ), will ensure Air Force’s desired outcome of a fully capable and fully interoperable United States Navy (USN) common EA-18G is achieved; and that it is able to successfully conduct combined AEA operations.

The upgrades for the AIR5349 Phase 6 Project will include enhancements to the EA-18G platform as well as those Fundamental Inputs to Capability (FIC) implemented under AIR5349 Phase 3 – Growler AEA Capability.

The Project is in the process of executing a Government to Government Cooperative Project to acquire the NGJ. On-going logistics support of the NGJ is likely to be constrained by the US Government due to the security associated with the technology and requires further engagement with the USN. Other EA-18G platform and off-platform enhancements are likely to be executed using existing commercial arrangements established under Phase 3 – Growler AEA Capability.

Approximate Investment Value: $5bn to $6bn - Program Timeframe: 2016-2035

Source: https://www.defence.gov.au/CASG/Equippi ... se%206.asp