JASDF may be in the market for more F-35s

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marauder2048

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Unread post11 Jul 2020, 00:58

spazsinbad wrote:Similar story about approval however I was wondering the truth of this sentence - Shirley Japan negotiates with NOT LM?
"...The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of the possible sale, which is worth about $23 billion, although that number could change during negotiations between the country and Lockheed Martin. Those negotiations would start after Congress approves the sale...." https://www.defensenews.com/smr/2020/07 ... -f-35-buy/


Congressional notifications of this type represent ceilings and not floors. But yeah it's mostly DOD that does
the negotiations on behalf of the FMS purchaser though there's nothing prohibiting the FMS purchaser from
getting heavily involved; it's ultimately at the discretion of the DOD contracting officials.
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mixelflick

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Unread post12 Jul 2020, 16:54

News of this buy really is something. LM is now in some cases (literally) selling F-35's by the hundreds. 96 or so in the 2021 US Defense Budget, 105 for Japan, Brits are buying 138 jets... wonder who's next?

It really says something that they're going all in like this. They've only been flying it a short amount of time, and now they're buying in big. If I'm not mistaken, the Israeli's upped their buy somewhat too after something similar happening (not to the same extent though). Still, this is a watershed moment in the program's history.

Congrats to LM :)
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spazsinbad

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Unread post12 Jul 2020, 22:38

:doh: The dreaded & much feared F-35 LIGHTING II JSF is back. One does wonder how they appear already so formed.
State Department Approves $23B Japanese F-35 Fighter Deal
10 Jul 2020 Dzirhan Mahadzir

"KUALA LUMPUR — The State Department signed off on a Japanese buy of 105 F-35 Lighting II Joint Strike Fighters and associated equipment, according to a Thursday notification to Congress....

...The package’s estimated total cost is $23.11 billion though this will depend on the contract negotiations between Japan and Lockheed Martin.... [we've been over this error]

...The Japanese Ministry of Defence though has been downplaying the future operations of F-35s from JS Izumo (DDH-183) and JS Kaga (DDH-184) saying the F-35s would be deployed on the ships when necessary, due to the sensitivities over whether such a capability would push it over the boundaries of Japan’s constitutional limitations on possessing offensive capabilities. Operation of the F-35Bs would also mark the first time since World War II that Japan would be operating fighter aircraft off its naval vessels. Kaga is the namesake of a prominent WWII aircraft carrier.

However retired JMSDF senior officers have been quoted in the Japanese press as stating the threat posed by China’s increasing military capabilities which has led to an increase in incursions in Japanese waters, necessitated a move to have fleet air defense aircraft. Given the limitations of the Izumo-class, there have been calls that a new domestic carrier class be developed though Japan should be clear to both domestic and international audiences that such ships were purely for defensive purposes.

Izumo is currently undergoing the initial stage of conversion work to allow it to operate F-35s and will return to the fleet and final conversion work will be carried out in FY2025 while Kaga instead will be fully modified in fiscal year 2022 though current plans expect Japan to receive its F-35Bs beginning in 2024. U.S. officials confirmed to USNI News in August that U.S. Marine F-35s could be the first to operate from the Japanese platforms...."

Source: https://news.usni.org/2020/07/10/state- ... ghter-deal
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lbk000

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Unread post12 Jul 2020, 23:08

Code: Select all
                                             Death Spiral Death Spiral
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     Death Spiral        Lo        Death Spiral              Death Spiral Death Spiral
   Death Spiral       LOL       Death Spiral                 Death Spiral Death Spiral
  Death Spiral           LOL Death Spiral                   Death Spiral Death Spiral
 Death Spiral                                              Death Spiral Death Spiral
  Death Spiral                                           Death Spiral Death Spiral
      Death Spiral Death Spiral                  Death Spiral Death Spiral
                  Death Spiral Death Spiral Death Spiral Death Spiral
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I know em when I see em!
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blindpilot

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 02:38

lbk000 wrote: Death Spiral Death Spiral

I know em when I see em!


If you wonder how far things have gone since the death spiral days ....

LIsten to the crickets ... (silence) as I make the following "ridiculous"? statement

I will give ten to one odds.. $1,000 to your $100 that eventually there will be over "4",000 F-35s made before the line shuts down ... not 3,000 something ... 4 Thousand. Bet I don't get any takers. That's all that needs to be said about the death spiral. If someone mentions it to you, tell them they can take my bet ... I'll be $100 richer sometime in the 30's.
But more telling ... no one will take the bet ... which answers what the scoffers actually believe.

Anyone? anyone? ... crickets ...

MHO
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weasel1962

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 02:45

I'd take an even money bet against the F-35 @ 5k :2c:
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blindpilot

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 03:12

blindpilot wrote:LIsten to the crickets ... (silence) as I make the following "ridiculous"? statement

I will give ten to one odds.. $1,000 to your $100 that eventually there will be over "4",000 F-35s made before the line shuts down


Another statement that makes a absolute truth plainly evident.

We'll set up a "Red Flag" exercise area in Nevada. One F-35 and one of "your aircraft" (ie. pick one SU-35/J-20/Gripen etc.- but not F35/22) Both will be loaded with live ammo. and ROE is shoot to kill. I'll have my pilot ready to go tomorrow at Nellis. I'll bet I can get a pilot and you cannot pay enough money to get a pilot to show up at your aircraft ... crickets.

Make it real and truth jumps out quickly, .. waiting for a Gripen fan boy to take either bet ...
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Corsair1963

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 03:39

I wouldn't be surprised. If, Japan buys even more F-35's further down the road.... :wink:
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lbk000

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 03:52

BP, that is the real test right there. Absolutely spot on.
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marauder2048

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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 01:41

blindpilot wrote:
blindpilot wrote:
We'll set up a "Red Flag" exercise area in Nevada. One F-35 and one of "your aircraft" (ie. pick one SU-35/J-20/Gripen etc.- but not F35/22) Both will be loaded with live ammo. and ROE is shoot to kill. I'll have my pilot ready to go tomorrow at Nellis. I'll bet I can get a pilot and you cannot pay enough money to get a pilot to show up at your aircraft ... crickets.


I'd swear this was the basic premise of an "Airwolf" episode...
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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 12:34

Japan has decided to operate its F-35Bs on JS Izumo
14 Jul 2020 ALERT5

"Japan published its 2020 Defense White Paper today and in the section on the F-35B, the government has confirmed that the stealth fighter will operate from the Izumo-class helicopter destroyer. The paper says this is in response to the new security environment and to protect Japan’s air and sea approaches.

It added that Japanese fighters currently can only operate out of 20 runways across Japan, with the F-35B, this will increase to 45 runways.

Former Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera had told a Upper House Budget Committee session in 2018 that he had authorized the study on whether the Izumo-class helicopter destroyers can operate the F-35B."

Source: http://alert5.com/2020/07/14/japan-has- ... more-83078
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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 14:03

F-35B makes a lot of sense to "land restricted for military use" nations.
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spazsinbad

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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 14:14

Yes there are 45 F-35B suitable runways in Japan; but how about all the various landing techniques available to make any suitable road OK? And let us not forget other landing sites that can be prepared with aluminium matting or concrete etc.
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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 21:37

spazsinbad wrote:Yes there are 45 F-35B suitable runways in Japan; but how about all the various landing techniques available to make any suitable road OK? And let us not forget other landing sites that can be prepared with aluminium matting or concrete etc.


It comes down to surface length and width and the minimum operating strip for the F-35B (call it 900 ft. x 50 ft.) vs.
the CEP and submunition effects of the anti-runway ballistic missile.

Assume the DF-16 can reach any Japanese runway hosting the F-35B; RAND estimates that it would take two
such missiles to cut runway width of 150 ft with a probability of 90%.

The number of cuts you need is then the (runway length / 900 ft) -1.
So 20 missiles to completely cut a 10,000 ft x 150 ft. runway with a probability of 90%.

Say on average, for all 45 runways you only needed 14 missiles per runway that's still 630 missiles
just to attack the runways assuming the Japanese could play a shell game with F-35B basing i.e.
the PRC would be compelled to attack any base that could host an F-35B.
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jessmo112

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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 21:46

marauder2048 wrote:
spazsinbad wrote:Yes there are 45 F-35B suitable runways in Japan; but how about all the various landing techniques available to make any suitable road OK? And let us not forget other landing sites that can be prepared with aluminium matting or concrete etc.


It comes down to surface length and width and the minimum operating strip for the F-35B (call it 900 ft. x 50 ft.) vs.
the CEP and submunition effects of the anti-runway ballistic missile.

Assume the DF-16 can reach any Japanese runway hosting the F-35B; RAND estimates that it would take two
such missiles to cut runway width of 150 ft with a probability of 90%.

The number of cuts you need is then the (runway length / 900 ft) -1.
So 20 missiles to completely cut a 10,000 ft x 150 ft. runway with a probability of 90%.

Say on average, for all 45 runways you only needed 14 missiles per runway that's still 630 missiles
just to attack the runways assuming the Japanese could play a shell game with F-35B basing i.e.
the PRC would be compelled to attack any base that could host an F-35B.


So in theory China could attack soccer fields also.
Getting the BEE is almost a no brainer.
Having BEEs in mountain reventments and HAS would make Chinas Job almost impossible.
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