F-35 Lifetime Cost Estimates DROP 22%

[spazsinbad]

How a little bit of co-operation amongst those with 'em may help bring down that pesky cost...

Lockheed Martin Girds for Combat Jet Choices as Dutch Back JSF 21 Sep 2013 Robert Wall

"...Norway and the U.K. have agreed to cooperate on their [F-35] maintenance and use. The Norwegian government said Sept. 17 it would seek to extend that cooperation to the Netherlands.

Those relationships should help lower usage costs across Europe, which would be further aided by U.S. F-35s jets deployed in the region, O’Bryan said. It would clear the way for a sharing of parts and experience...."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-2 ... k-jsf.html

[spazsinbad]

AND...

An Advocate for the F-35 20 Sep 2013 Merri Shaffer

"Deborah James, Air Force Secretary nominee, said on Thursday the F-35 strike fighter has been an "enormously expensive program," but is integral to the United States maintaining air superiority. Addressing the Senate Armed Services Committee at her Sept. 19 confirmation hearing, James said she would continue to advocate for the F-35, if the Senate approves her nomination, and would press the point that "the threats out there are real and that we need this program to help us counter those threats." The F-35 program is "trending in the right direction," she said, citing the newest, lower lifecycle cost projections. James said the basing decisions for the initial combat-ready F-35 units should come in October or November. (James' responses to advance questions
http://www.airforcemag.com/testimony/Do ... 3james.pdf [363Kb])"

http://www.airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pa ... -F-35.aspx

[quicksilver]

It is badly written if not an accurate quote I think but we have to get the gist somehow. Are wages of personnel included in these life cycle costs? I have not been following this issue closely because not enough is known about the parameters AFAIK. One day all will be revealed.

I had always assumed that's why they track manhours, so they could arrive at a labor cost component for CPFH..

No, no, no. Not that simple. Not just man hours -- all personnel cost are included in the calculation over the life of a 50+ year program -- training expense, wages, you name it.

"Oh, no -- that can't be...". Oh yes it can -- and is.

"That's (pick your expletive) outrageous."

I agree.

[spazsinbad]

That calculation must require a supadupacomputa?

[popcorn]

It will be interesting to see whose lifecycle cost projections prevail, Bogdan's or Kendall's.

http://www.airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pa ... Do-Ya.aspx

F-35: A DAB Won't Do Ya

The Pentagon's defense acquisition board, which was to conduct a major review of the F-35 program in early October, now will not conduct the major milestone assessment until Oct. 22, at the earliest, due to the partial federal government shutdown, according to a program official. The DAB, chaired by Pentagon acquisition executive Frank Kendall, is scheduled to look at new lifecycle cost projections for the multiservice fighter, review progress on a variety of technical issues, and decide whether to give the nod for higher rates of F-35 production starting in 2015. In June, after a summit of Office of the Secretary of Defense, service, international, and contractor leaders, Kendall said he expected to approve higher rate production at the October DAB review. The meeting is also expected to bless the new lifecycle cost estimates, which are 22 percent less than the previous ones.

[spazsinbad]

Will be a good day when the disputed lifetime costs are updated for the better.... Long article re-iterating what is known recently on several threads including this one - COST:

Joint Strike Fighter Total Cost Still Up in the Air November 2013 By Dan Parsons

"...The Air Force, Lockheed and Pratt have created a “cost war room” staffed by experts in manufacturing, supply chain management and development and procurement whose task it is to systematically parse the jet’s entire life cycle, looking for efficiencies.

“I’m cautiously optimistic that over the next year or two we will see some good results out of that,” Bogdan said.

The cost war room is at Lockheed’s private development center near Crystal City, Va., where half a floor was given over to the full-time effort.

“I have told Lockheed, and I have told Pratt … the expectation is that lot over lot, the airplane’s price and the engine price will and must keep coming down,” Bogdan said. “There is no scenario I see where that can’t happen. Not on my watch. I won’t let that happen. The price needs to keep coming down, no matter what.”

Other systems designed specifically to make operations and maintenance of the F-35 efficient and cost effective, like the automatic logistics information system (ALIS), are “just flat-out late,” Bogdan said.

ALIS is a globally distributed data collection and dissemination program that allows operators to plan ahead, maintain and sustain the F-35 throughout an individual plane’s life cycle. It integrates operations, maintenance, prognostics, supply chain, customer support and technical data and makes it available at a moment’s notice for pilots and maintenance staff worldwide.

“ALIS is going to be a wonderful system some day, but we started way too late in applying the systems engineering discipline that is needed,” Bogdan said. “We’re doing it now, but we are in catch-up mode, and we’ll be in catch-up mode for a while.”

Costs per aircraft have been coming down with each lot purchased, both Bogdan and Martin said. From low-rate initial production lots one to five, the cost has decreased 55 percent across all three variants, Martin said. That accounts for a $500 million reduction from lots one to five. The Air Force’s conventional takeoff and landing version now sits at $150 million per copy, she said...."

http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/ ... heAir.aspx

[spazsinbad]

Pentagon F-35 review next week to examine operating costs Andrea Shalal-Esa 16 Oct 2013

"(Reuters) - Top Pentagon officials will examine the cost of building and operating the Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jet at a major review of the $392 billion program next week that will also provide updates on lingering technical issues.

Kyra Hawn, spokeswoman for the Pentagon's F-35 program office, said a high-level Defense Acquisition Board meeting was expected to proceed on Monday despite the partial government shutdown. The meeting has already been postponed several times.

She said officials would get an update on how the program was meeting its cost and schedule targets, as well as progress on technical challenges including the millions of line of complex software code being written for the new fighter planes.

One key topic at the meeting will be the long-term cost of operating and "sustaining" the new fighter plane, an issue of great concern for the U.S. military and the eight partner countries that are funding its development: Britain, Canada, Australia, Denmark, Norway, Turkey, the Netherlands and Italy.

The Pentagon's Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE)office is expected to present an updated projection of the cost of operating and maintaining the U.S. military's future fleet of 2,443 F-35s over 55 years.

CAPE has maintained its forecast for that cost at around $1.1 trillion for some time, but Pentagon acquisition chief Frank Kendall has said he expects the estimate to come down.

The F-35 program office has already lowered its estimate by 20 percent to $857 billion.

"Sustainment cost will be a large topic of discussion," said Hawn, noting that it was critical to lower the longer-term costs of operating the new warplanes so it was affordable for the U.S. military and international buyers.

She said the program would also be hosting the first of a regular set of twice-yearly summits on operating and maintenance costs in November, an initiative that grew out of a September meeting of the F-35's Joint Executive Steering Board (JESB).

Details were still being worked out, but the meeting is aimed at generating ideas for driving down the cost of operating and maintaining a global fleet of thousands of F-35s, Hawn said.

For instance, in September, Britain and Norway announced they would work together more closely to lower costs by pooling resources for technical maintenance once the new fighter jets start arriving in Europe in the second half of the decade.

The meeting is expected to include representatives from Lockheed and other key suppliers on the program, Northrop Grumman Corp, BAE Systems Plc and Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies Corp, as well the U.S. military and the eight partner countries.

Air Force Lieutenant General Chris Bogdan, the Pentagon's F-35 program chief, has said he hopes to inject more competition into the overall effort of operating and maintaining the planes once the program completes development around 2018.

Lockheed oversees sustainment of the F-35 under the current development contract, but the Pentagon is exploring other options, including dealing directly with component suppliers that work on maintenance, instead of having Lockheed coordinate that work, according to one source familiar with the program.

Monday's Pentagon meeting is also expected to touch on last week's news that extended durability testing of the F-35 B-model had resulted in minor cracks in the bulkhead of the plane, which is being built for the Marine Corps.

Hawn said investigators were still trying to determine the root cause of the cracks."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/ ... sinessNews

[popcorn]

Apparently CAPE figures were not available for release during the recent DAB meeting so will just have to wait to se how close they track to,Gen.,Bogdan's estimate.


http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSB ... 0?irpc=932
...
Kendall also asked the head of the Cost Analysis and Program Evaluation office to finalize a new estimate for the cost to operate and maintain the fleet of F-35 jets over the next 55 years as part of the fiscal 2015 budget submission.

The CAPE's previous estimate was $1.1 trillion, but the Pentagon's F-35 program office puts the cost at $857 billion...

[XanderCrews]

Apparently CAPE figures were not available for release during the recent DAB meeting so will just have to wait to se how close they track to,Gen.,Bogdan's estimate.


http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSB ... 0?irpc=932
...
Kendall also asked the head of the Cost Analysis and Program Evaluation office to finalize a new estimate for the cost to operate and maintain the fleet of F-35 jets over the next 55 years as part of the fiscal 2015 budget submission.

The CAPE's previous estimate was $1.1 trillion, but the Pentagon's F-35 program office puts the cost at $857 billion...

It will be fun to see how much the price drops and how many cries of foul play we will hear from the usual suspects

[popcorn]

Apparently CAPE figures were not available for release during the recent DAB meeting so will just have to wait to se how close they track to,Gen.,Bogdan's estimate.


http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSB ... 0?irpc=932
...
Kendall also asked the head of the Cost Analysis and Program Evaluation office to finalize a new estimate for the cost to operate and maintain the fleet of F-35 jets over the next 55 years as part of the fiscal 2015 budget submission.

The CAPE's previous estimate was $1.1 trillion, but the Pentagon's F-35 program office puts the cost at $857 billion...

It will be fun to see how much the price drops and how many cries of foul play we will hear from the usual suspects

I'd settle for something in between Bogdan's and Kendall's estimates... lower would be nicer though.

[maus92]

Winslow Wheeler added up projected F-35 costs based on the 2014 NDAA just signed into law. LM has a lot of work to do to get prices down to what they are claiming for 2019.

The Latest Word on F-35 Unit Cost
January 3, 2014
Winslow Wheeler / POGO Blog

"There have been some wild assertions about F-35 unit cost recently. See the Lockheed claims as reported in Breaking Defense, Defense News and others that we should expect F-35A costs to be $85 million in 2019. None of these articles acknowledged that there are ways to measure F-35 unit cost other than by mouthing Lockheed and/or Joint Program Office prognostications for the future."

"The 2014 procurement cost for 19 F-35As will be $2.989 billion. However, we need to add to that the "long lead" money for the 2014 buy that was appropriated in 2013; that was $293 million, making a total of $3.282 billion for 19 aircraft in 2014. The math for unit cost comes to $172.7 million for each aircraft.

To be fully accurate, however, we should add the additional procurement money authorized for "modification of aircraft" for F-35As for 2014; that means $158 million more, bringing the total unit production cost to $181 million per copy.

None of that includes the 2014 R&D bill for the F-35A...."

"For the Marines B, or STOVL, model, the authorized 2014 buy is six (6) aircraft for $1.267 billion in 2014 procurement, $106 million in 2013 long lead money, and $147 million in 2014 aircraft procurement modifications. That calculates to $252.3 million for each one.

For the Navy's C, carrier-capable (but not yet), model, we get four (4) aircraft for $1.135 billion, plus $32 million in long lead, plus $31 million in modifications. That means $299.5 million for each one."

The entire post can be found here: http://www.pogo.org/blog/2014/01/the-la ... -cost.html

[rotosequence]

The Pentagon apparently opted to violate federal law to keep the F-35 on track, as well.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/ ... VA20140103

(Reuters) - The Pentagon repeatedly waived laws banning Chinese-built components on U.S. weapons in order to keep the $392 billion Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter program on track in 2012 and 2013, even as U.S. officials were voicing concern about China's espionage and military buildup.

According to Pentagon documents reviewed by Reuters, chief U.S. arms buyer Frank Kendall allowed two F-35 suppliers, Northrop Grumman Corp and Honeywell International Inc, to use Chinese magnets for the new warplane's radar system, landing gears and other hardware. Without the waivers, both companies could have faced sanctions for violating federal law and the F-35 program could have faced further delays.

[SpudmanWP]

The did not violate the law, they followed it.

[rotosequence]

The did not violate the law, they followed it.

Whoops, you're right.

[count_to_10]

Kind of hard to sabotage magnets without anyone noticing. Also kind of hard to get neodymium anywhere else.