SU-57E: E is for Export

[mixelflick]

According to this, the SU-57 is being geared for export, with an eye toward the Middle East..

https://www.janes.com/article/87519/lim ... for-export

Is this a smart move? On the one hand, more foreign orders brings more $ into the Kremlin's coffers. You can understand why nations in the ME might want it. Mostly if they can't get the F-35. Turkey comes to mind, LOL.

But it's an immature design, 2nd stage engines are years away and stealth seems marginal. And stealth would be the main selling point, I imagine. But it has to be crazy expensive, likely a maintenance nightmare (due to RAM coatings) and I'm still not clear on its weapons suite.

Thoughts?

[marsavian]

Probably more will be sold for export than to RuAF e.g. Iran/Turkey etc.

[sprstdlyscottsmn]

I see Iran being the big customer since they were a tad peeved when Israel was able to overfly their S-300(400?) sites with F-35s unopposed.

[fbw]

I see this as a necessity, injection of $$$.

It’s unclear if KnAAPO has even established a true production line as of yet. Factory is utilized for Su-35 and SSJ. Su-57’s likely still hand built. Even the “serial-production” for the VVS consists of 12 aircraft until 2025.

Basically “buy Su-57” means “please subsidize production lines, non-recurring costs”.

[mixelflick]

Wholeheartedly agree.

In fact, I think it means without foreign orders even the 1 or 2 airframes they're producing per year are in jeopardy. They're modnizing their air force by instead trying to standardize their Flanker fleet. Older SU-30's are getting SU-35 engines and hardware. They're all being brought up to SU-35 standard, or so it seems.

So no SU-57 for a long time. Even when the engines are ready, I'm skeptical. I think most of those will be retro-fitted to Flankers, turning them into legit super-cruisers.

It's an interesting strategy, as they really seem to have embraced 4++ gens, but for different reasons than the US (who is entertaining buying Super Eagles and def buying SH's). We lack leadership/foresight to invest in 5th gen airframes, they don't have the tech for mass producing a 5th gen. These mixed 4th and 5th gen fleets will still be effective, but especially in the US case are hurting our long term capability. 50 year old fighters, c'mon. Every Super Eagle they order comes at the expense of the F-35. Every. Single. One.

And the USAF will tell you it's to "preserve the industrial base". That's code for "corporate welfare". That isn't American, it's Russian/communism. In a capitalist society, you either adapt and win or you go out of business. If LM is the last fighter manufacturer left standing, then so be it. They won fair and square by producing a far superior/capable aircraft at a lower price.

How many times has that happened in recent memory?!

[madrat]

Russia has weapons to sell, but lacks political clout on global markets. They now sell also-runs, but not contemporary.

Thank goodness they never sold Tu-22M3, MiG-31BM, or Su-34 abroad. Flankers really have lost their luster since China entered the market. Russia offers little in the way of funding. In contrast, China sells the Belt & Road fleecing and bribery schemes that are so popular with megalomaniac leaders.

[charlielima223]

According to this, the SU-57 is being geared for export, with an eye toward the Middle East..

https://www.janes.com/article/87519/lim ... for-export

Another interesting statement in the article...

In Asia Pacific, countries likely to be interested in the Su-57E include China and India. "China has recently taken delivery of 24 Su-35 aircraft," said Kladov, "and in the next two years [China] will make a decision to either procure additional Su-35s, build the Su-35 within China, or to buy a fifth-generation fighter aircraft. This could be another opportunity for the Su-57E."

Why would China want the PAKFA when they're already developing their J-20 and FC-31? Also why would China want more Su-35s? According to another discussion, the Chinese do not seem to be all that impressed by it.

The only real opportunity for the PAKFA is to swindle India into coming back.

[marsavian]

Chine might want to pick up a few Su-57 purely for IP theft reasons as that is their traditional shameless MO.

[mixelflick]

I agree India is the likely target, but honestly - how much $ is going to be around after shelling out for their new medium fighter competition? They're buying no small number, and the SU-57 likely won't come cheap.

China already has a superior stealth aircraft. The only reason they'd want an SU-57 is for its new, 2nd stage engine. Same reason they bought the SU-35..

[tphuang]

Russia can always offer. They've offered plenty of hardware that PLA does not want. This entire pitch is probably a dig at India, saying since you don't our new fighter, we will give it to your enemy.

PLA learnt it's lessons from previous purchase. Never buy anything from Russia until it's fully developed, cause you never know how long it will take for them to finish it. That's why they waited until 2017 to take Su-35. Care to make wager on when Su-57 will be fully production ready?

[juretrn]

Care to make wager on when Su-57 will be fully production ready?

Probably around the same time as PCA, lol.
Obviously the PCA will be "double inferior" to it.

[mixelflick]

Care to make wager on when Su-57 will be fully production ready?

Probably around the same time as PCA, lol.
Obviously the PCA will be "double inferior" to it.

I think serial production of the SU-57 will occur before PCA, but not by much. If it takes 3 years to get the bugs in the new engine worked out, that brings up to 2022 or so. Money is going to be tight though (as it is now), and something has to give. Remember, they "want" these programs/aircraft..

1.) Ongoing SU-34, 35 production
2.) Ongoing SU-30SM upgrades
3.) SU-57
4.) Hunter drone
5.) Mig 41 (Mig-31 replacement)
6.) TU-160 new build
7.) PAK-DA
8.) Mig-35

Given their available $ and expertise, 3 to 4 of these projects would be ambitious. Nevermind more than a half dozen. They really can't skimp on SU-30SM/SU-34/SU-35 production, as they need front line fighters to do the fighting if trouble kicks off. Putin's personal involvement/comments make them dropping the SU-57 highly unlikely, although production numbers will be low (especially considering no foreign orders). The Hunter drone seems tightly linked to the SU-57, so I expect that'll stay too.

The TU-160 upgrades will happen, although I'm less certain about PAK-DA. That's a whole lotta' $ for something they claim they can accomplish better/cheaper with new TU-160's and ALCM's. The Mig-35 is a small, almost inconsequential buy, and the Mig-41 isn't happening IMO, its a pipe dream.

Russia would be far better served to replace its Mig-31's with SU-30SM's. The modified version brings it up to SU-35 specs, but more importantly it has 2 crew members and fantastic range. What it lacks in Foxhound speed it can more than make up for if a very long range air to air missile (VLRAAM) is fitted.

So I forsee no Mig-41 nor PAK-DA. Far too expensive, likely a stretch they can achieve either and their role can be accomplished with cheaper, more flexible airframes.

SU-57 will happen, just not anytime soon nor in any great numbers..

[Corsair1963]

Chine might want to pick up a few Su-57 purely for IP theft reasons as that is their traditional shameless MO.

Doubtful in my opinion. As China already got what technology it wanted from the Su-35's. So, what would the Su-57 benefit them???


Surely, not stealth....

[Corsair1963]

Care to make wager on when Su-57 will be fully production ready?

Probably around the same time as PCA, lol.
Obviously the PCA will be "double inferior" to it.

I think serial production of the SU-57 will occur before PCA, but not by much. If it takes 3 years to get the bugs in the new engine worked out, that brings up to 2022 or so. Money is going to be tight though (as it is now), and something has to give. Remember, they "want" these programs/aircraft..

1.) Ongoing SU-34, 35 production
2.) Ongoing SU-30SM upgrades
3.) SU-57
4.) Hunter drone
5.) Mig 41 (Mig-31 replacement)
6.) TU-160 new build
7.) PAK-DA
8.) Mig-35

Given their available $ and expertise, 3 to 4 of these projects would be ambitious. Nevermind more than a half dozen. They really can't skimp on SU-30SM/SU-34/SU-35 production, as they need front line fighters to do the fighting if trouble kicks off. Putin's personal involvement/comments make them dropping the SU-57 highly unlikely, although production numbers will be low (especially considering no foreign orders). The Hunter drone seems tightly linked to the SU-57, so I expect that'll stay too.

The TU-160 upgrades will happen, although I'm less certain about PAK-DA. That's a whole lotta' $ for something they claim they can accomplish better/cheaper with new TU-160's and ALCM's. The Mig-35 is a small, almost inconsequential buy, and the Mig-41 isn't happening IMO, its a pipe dream.

Russia would be far better served to replace its Mig-31's with SU-30SM's. The modified version brings it up to SU-35 specs, but more importantly it has 2 crew members and fantastic range. What it lacks in Foxhound speed it can more than make up for if a very long range air to air missile (VLRAAM) is fitted.

So I forsee no Mig-41 nor PAK-DA. Far too expensive, likely a stretch they can achieve either and their role can be accomplished with cheaper, more flexible airframes.

SU-57 will happen, just not anytime soon nor in any great numbers..

Doubtful the Su-57 will ever be produced in even modest numbers.

Also, I would hope the Su-57 would enter production before the PCA. As the later doesn't even exist is physical form yet. Let alone be close to entering production....

[marsavian]

Chine might want to pick up a few Su-57 purely for IP theft reasons as that is their traditional shameless MO.

Doubtful in my opinion. As China already got what technology it wanted from the Su-35's. So, what would the Su-57 benefit them???

Surely, not stealth....

Maybe but more likely the new AESA/sensors and engines. More IP to steal.