SU-57 deployed to Syria

[geforcerfx]

So in the end the Russians realized they win if they are NOT 26 trillion in debt...

Seems more along the lines of we can field this jet at $85 million and get 30% better overall performance than the jets were are fielding at $30 million and have decades of experience with. Then you factor in that neither is competitive with there main adversaries and why waste the extra money? With the other (Su-35, Su-30sm) you can field a decent amount of them within the tight budget the Russian economy can muster. Will they buy some? Yes, prob 50 or so seems decent enough. If they can master some basic stealthy networking and 5th and 4th gen mixing it could still offer a lot of force improvements for the flankers flying missiles trucks in the back. If they can secure some decent export orders they may get more, are they going to have a answer for the 3,000 F-35's flying around the world, no, but the Su-57 was never going to answer that problem anyways.

[sferrin]

So in the end the Russians realized they win if they are NOT 26 trillion in debt...

The Su-57 was going to put them $26 trillion in debt? I must have been hella expensive.

[mixelflick]

The question I'd have then, is why? Apparently it wasn't an issue with the Mig 21 or 23. But as soon as the Mig-29 and SU-27 appeared, they went back to twin engine designs. They seem enamored with widely spaced engine nacelles, the "tunnel" between them and blended wing/body designs. I get the fact that kind of airframe carries a lot of gas, but engines are the most expensive part of an aircraft, yes?

It just doesn't make any sense IMO. Single engine birds will be lighter, cheaper and presumably more $ could be put into integrated avionics and SA, where they're also having great difficulty. Once you've settled on a twin engine design, you're baking in expense on top of expense..

Engines are expensive (though maybe not the most expensive part)... but it's going to fall back on mission requirements. If you have some kind of survivability requirement, or some need to make long flights away from a landing area (see Canada's thinking with the original F-18 purchase), you might need that second engine.

Or, perhaps you lack the ability to make an engine of the appropriate thrust level in the time frame you'd need it. If your single-engine design needs an engine with 45klb thrust and you only have engines that make 30k, well...

Yeah, that's a good point. Even the 2nd stage engines for PAK FA are said to put out 39,000lbs in full blower, and who knows when those will be available. An F-35 class offering from Mikoyan would probably need an engine well north of 40,000lbs, especially if it's packed with fuel like the F-35. It boggles the mind really, 18,000lbs of fuel carried by that little jet.

And let's not forget: Russian engines aren't nearly as fuel efficient as their western counterparts. So it'd be a double whammy to the LMFI team and they'd probably have to opt for 2 engines. Of course, this assumes they're still working on it. With no evidence that they are, it's pretty much toast. Shame really, would have liked to see them at least be competitive again...

[milosh]

Yeah, that's a good point. Even the 2nd stage engines for PAK FA are said to put out 39,000lbs in full blower, and who knows when those will be available. An F-35 class offering from Mikoyan would probably need an engine well north of 40,000lbs, especially if it's packed with fuel like the F-35. It boggles the mind really, 18,000lbs of fuel carried by that little jet.

We don't know real numbers for AL-41F3. 39.000lbs sound unrealistic because engine is 25% lighter then AL-41F1 (1600kg). So F3 is 2670lb (1200kg) so if its thurst is 39k then T/W ratio is 14.6 which is ridiculous. IMO, F3 is have similar AB thrust as F1 but better dry thrust. So it isn't russian F135.

[mixelflick]

You see any meaningful production run once the engines are ready?

I don't. Can never be bought in large numbers, adds complexity to the spare parts/logistics chain which is already a nightmare insofar as fielding a half dozen different Flanker variants.

Going to be more of a silver bullet force than the F-22 IMO...

[nutshell]

So in the end the Russians realized they win if they are NOT 26 trillion in debt...

Lol, combining all the public debts of all countries in the world you might get barely half of that. Or a third.or a 4th.

Jeez.

[southernphantom]

So in the end the Russians realized they win if they are NOT 26 trillion in debt...

Lol, combining all the public debts of all countries in the world you might get barely half of that. Or a third.or a 4th.

Jeez.

The US is at $21.2T USD total debt, along with $113.9T USD unfunded liabilities such as pensions and Social Security. Never underestimate the power of big government to spend a country into the ground.

[milos984]

Let's try and translate this, shall we?
...
"We brought it to Syria, and noticed the F-22 and 35 easily detected it"
"Since we don't want to buy this turkey in any numbers, we'll try and convince other countries to do so"
"The only chance in hell we have of coming up with the $ to build a sixth gen, is convincing enough suckers to buy SU-57's".
..."

There was an russian lenguage article, which - shortly after deployment to Syria - speaks about modus operandi in Syrian theatre. There was openly stated that testing of Su-57´s passive electronic systems would be done in "hole" ower the desert in Palmyra area, where is smallest chance that Su-57 would be compromised by ground and air based ELINT systems of the adversaries.
It was writen before they pull out Su-57´s from there after two days. Since then they stress that "two days" was not a problem and with help of A-50U AWACS´s everything was done to test what was planned.
I have doubts about this, as I dont understand from where USAF F-22´s or IDFAF F-35I´s came there just to show themselves for waiting russian.
But lets say they dont lie this time.

The Indians then pull out from the issue and our czecho-slovak pro-russian fan boys has nothing better to say just:

Cikani z prednej Azie stupnovali poziadavky na rusov v podobe transferu technologii, a vetsiho podielu na vyrobe FGFA. Indom stejne dochadzaju zdroje na obranu, tak skrtaju... https://www.modelforum.cz/viewtopic.php ... 0#p2107370

-> Gypsies from the front of Asia have made requests for Russians in the form of technology transfer, and a greater share of the FGFA production. Indom equally has the resources to defend, so shrink ...
or:

https://www.modelforum.cz/viewtopic.php?p=2107103#p2107103 Masina ide do finale. Zacnu vyrabat pre seba a urcite prejavy zaujem cina.
Ind je nespolahlivy partner ten nakupuje od kazdeho podla toho co od koho potrebuje.
Mozno sa rusom aj ulavi ked sa zbavia v tejto faze inda.

-> The Su-57 is coming to a finale. They going to pick them up for themselfs, and I'm sure Chine would be interested. India is a reluctant partner who buys from everyone according to what he needs. The russians may be gratefull when they get rid of of india in this phase.

So at all, everything is fine, they can be happe that they get rid of Gypsies (Indians).

Then offcials announced that there would be no large scale purchases of Su-57 and our czecho-slovak pro-russian fan boys has nothing better to say just:

V súčastnosti majú stovky nových SU-30SM,SU-30M2 a SU-35,ktoré im bohato postačujú a v podstate krásne stačia na to,čo vo svete lieta.Nemajú prečo nakupovať SU-57. https://www.modelforum.cz/styles/prosil ... target.gif

-> Today, hundreds of new SU-30SMs, SU-30M2s and SU-35s are in service and that is enough and basically beautiful enough for what the world has to offer. They have no reason to buy SU-57.
They have the resources, I would not see the problem (in that) and the technologies used on these prototypes are (for) years tested on other SU-27 variants, so if they were forced, I think they can start doing (producing) them immediately. But everything is just speculation, what they want on the aircraft (is) to be still in development...

So again and again they say, the existing Su-30/34/35´s are well enough for our needs - I ask how they know - deployment to syria where even Su-35S are droping dumb OFAB-250-270 GB-bombs on enemy which has nothing as integrated ai defense. But they know better...

Also funny is their convincion, that what is need for mass production of Su-57 is already on place and tested for years on Su-30´s - so no problem there.

As is organizing mass production in short time is that easy. So if they really produce some LRIP dozen of Su-57 how they want to organize te whole proces of production and then operational evaluation and then system integration. I dont know but they forget that whole avionic system, regardles how advance, need some operational deloyment to properly "learn how to function". Such cold start with production - not to talk about mass production - would be nightmare for project managers.

[mixelflick]

In response to the Mig-29 and SU-27, the US decided to build the ATF. And across the pond the Eurocanards were built for the same purpose.

The only thing Russia has built in response to that has been.... updated Mig-29's and SU-27's.

So they're largely flying 1980's platforms today with some updated avionics and better engines than existed then. If we were fielding tricked out F-15's and 16's and not the F-35, I'd be concerned. But as it stands, the F-35 is a generational leap for which they don't have an answer.

And probably still won't 5-7 years from now. For better or worse, PAK FA is their only hope. But it is increasingly clear that it's a long shot. Real long...

[rheonomic]

So in the end the Russians realized they win if they are NOT 26 trillion in debt...

The Su-57 was going to put them $26 trillion in debt? I must have been hella expensive.

Rubles maybe?

[juretrn]

LOL at fanboys thinking every system of the Su-57 exists on Super Flankers.
Except for things such as
- central avionics computer (the one that supposedly uses Elbrus processors)
- Radar
- Himalayas ESM
- DIRCM
- IRST
- New weapons integration
...

So basically everything :/

[aaam]

If (notice I say If) true, interesting development in light of this discussion:

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-a ... ?r=UK&IR=T

[marsavian]

Love the way they neatly lined it up with their latest Flankers.

The same way our P-40's were lined up at Pearl Harbor...

I mean, it'd be a shame if something were to happen to them...

Russian and Syrian aircraft have been attacked on the ground by Daesh forces using some rather novel and clever tactics...

https://theaviationist.com/2018/01/08/d ... -in-syria/

Russia is wildly claiming a P-8 led this !

https://www.rt.com/news/442219-kremlin-attack-us-syria/
https://www.rt.com/news/415374-drones-s ... n-defense/

[mixelflick]

So back to the SU-57...

This whole deployment was a publicity stunt, with the goal of keeping the Indians in the game. It failed miserably, as the Indians pulled out shortly thereafter. If I'm not mistaken, they had already poured hundreds of millions into the project. Hundreds of millions that will be desperately needed to get the new engine working, AESA, offensive/defensive systems etc.. Predictably, they built a hell of an airframe. I really do like the layout, considering...

1.) They carried over the "tunnel" from the Flanker, which gives a nice weapons storage/area for more fuel
2.) Extremely low drag is a big improvement over the Flanker airframe
3.) Retained the excellent range of the Flanker series
4.) Potential for stealth (whether that potential will be realized is another matter)
5.) 3D thrust vectoring
6.) Nose, wing mounted radars

Everything else is deservedly in doubt, but you have to hand it to Russian engineers - they build beautiful airframes. The real problem being that even if all the other pieces fall into place, it's going to only get more expensive. No mass production means small, extremely expensive production batches of 10, 12, maybe 20 aircraft at a time.

It will be no match for F-22's or 35's, but present great difficulty for Rafale, Typhoon and every other (lesser) 4th gen. US F-15's will in all likelihood finally meet their match with this bird. The SU-57 will hold it all over it in virtually every category, save perhaps for avionics and weapons. Those matter and matter a lot, but it should be able to get close to the F-15, and in everything from BVR to WVR the SU-57 will likely (but not definitively) prevail.

We shall see...

[sprstdlyscottsmn]

1.) They carried over the "tunnel" from the Flanker, which gives a nice weapons storage/area for more fuel

Yeah, about that. Imagine how much more volume for fuel/weapons you would have if you filled in the tunnel? Better RCS by reducing the number of corner reflectors. Less form drag from interference of those interior corners. Arguably some increase in wave drag as it changes the area ruling.