SU-57 deployed to Syria

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Corsair1963

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Unread post25 Jun 2018, 01:47

The LMFS was canceled when the PAK-FA was selected. Unless, something has changed recently???
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mixelflick

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Unread post25 Jun 2018, 14:58

Corsair1963 wrote:The LMFS was canceled when the PAK-FA was selected. Unless, something has changed recently???


The Indians pulled out, that was one recent change. They deployed 2-4 to Syria, that's another recent change. It may be that testing in Syria went swimmingly, but maybe it didn't. A 2 day deployment I'd say sways that scenario to the latter.

I think it's a longshot they cancel PAK-FA/SU-57 and re-tool for the LMFS, but it's the right thing to do IMO. The SU-57 won't be ready for another 5 years, probably 10 the way things are going. The LMFS is going to have a much better export potential, probably have 90% of the combat potential of the SU-57 but at 1/3rd the cost. Maybe 1/2 if they do it right.

I dunno. I just think the SU-57 is too big, too complex and too ambitious a project for them. They bit off more than they could chew, and that's why after almost 10 years of development - they have less than a dozen developmental aircraft flying. None of which are anything close to combat capable. It may take another 10 years for the LMFS to go into production, but at least they'll know it could sell in the international market. The same just isn't true of the SU-57...
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hythelday

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Unread post25 Jun 2018, 21:27

mixelflick wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:The LMFS was canceled when the PAK-FA was selected. Unless, something has changed recently???


The Indians pulled out, that was one recent change. They deployed 2-4 to Syria, that's another recent change. It may be that testing in Syria went swimmingly, but maybe it didn't. A 2 day deployment I'd say sways that scenario to the latter.

I think it's a longshot they cancel PAK-FA/SU-57 and re-tool for the LMFS, but it's the right thing to do IMO. The SU-57 won't be ready for another 5 years, probably 10 the way things are going. The LMFS is going to have a much better export potential, probably have 90% of the combat potential of the SU-57 but at 1/3rd the cost. Maybe 1/2 if they do it right.

I dunno. I just think the SU-57 is too big, too complex and too ambitious a project for them. They bit off more than they could chew, and that's why after almost 10 years of development - they have less than a dozen developmental aircraft flying. None of which are anything close to combat capable. It may take another 10 years for the LMFS to go into production, but at least they'll know it could sell in the international market. The same just isn't true of the SU-57...


How did you calculate the "90% at 1/3 cost"? Why would LMFS have better export potential?

Russians won't cancel PAK-FA, deal with it.
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milos984

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Unread post06 Jul 2018, 06:24

hythelday wrote:Russians won't cancel PAK-FA, deal with it.
Certainly they are not going to cancel it, the question is if the expected numbers (-> 48 machines in first stage) would be real.
Few weeks back they signed a contract for firts 12 serial machines.
Now there is interesting link IN RUSSIAN: http://forum.militaryparitet.com/viewtopic.php?id=21088 which direct you to report from http://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=485254 the first vice- president of the Union of Machine Builders of the Russian Federation mr. Vladimir Gutenev who is also member of Duma commite for aviation industry.
He talked about words of Yury Borisov, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.
What is interesting? Read...
The Su-57 should be considered as an aircraft with export potential, and efforts should be concentrated on the creation of a fighter of the 6th generation - Gutenev
07/04/2018 15:40:54
Moscow. 4th of July. Interfax-AVN - The Su-57 fighter should be considered as a fine aircraft with export potential, but the main efforts should be focused on creating a transitional machine, the head of the State Duma commission for legal support of the development of defense industry organizations, the first vice- president of the Union of Machine Builders of the Russian Federation Vladimir Gutenev.
"I believe that the sixth-generation fighter will be a transitional vehicle between manned aircraft and unmanned intellectual shock complexes (bespilotny intellektual'ny udarny kompleks - BIUK) - in this case we are talking about aerial BIUK that can, thanks to their intellect, carry out the tasks set, including those that are sufficiently massive groups, "he said, commenting on the statement by Yury Borisov, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, that there will be no mass deliveries of the fifth generation of Su-57 fighters to Russia.
"I am largely in agreement with the words of Yuri Ivanovich (Borisov) about the fact that it is hardly worthwhile to expect a massive purchase of the Su-57," Gutenev said.
"Given the undoubted merits of this machine, we certainly understand that the program was launched in 2001, and the implementation of the program for a number of objective reasons was delayed (initially it was planned in 2006-2007 to conduct flight tests, and from 2014 already deliver in the troops), in connection with the very dynamic development of technology - this applies to the systems of electronic warfare, and new composite materials, and new opportunities that additive technologies provide in terms of constructive cheaper machines, "- konstestirov Al he.
"Well, of course, this is due to the fact that we have very sophisticated machines - the Su-34 and Su-35, which showed themselves well," said V.Gutenev. "Until 2023-2024 on the Su-57 is not supposed to install the engine of the second stage, the test of which has just started, it is" Product 30 ", and despite the fact that our car is much cheaper (according to my estimates, 2.5 times , than foreign analogues of the 5th generation), but still it is much more expensive and requires more fine services in comparison with the Su-34 and Su-35, "added V.Gutenev.
"Therefore, I agree with the opinion of Yuri Ivanovich (Borisov), according to which we already have experience, when thanks to reasonable technical policy we actually jumped through the generation, saving the budget to a considerable extent," he said.
"We were probably able to clarify a number of possible and accompanying data on the ability of the F-22 and F-35 to detect our aircraft in the short-term stay of our Su-57s in Syria in February this year - telemetry provided a significant reason for their improvement," - said V.Gutenev.
"Therefore, the concentration (effort) in the transitional, 6th generation, it seems to me, would be much more appropriate, and the 5th generation should serve in a small-series variant to develop technical tasks that would allow on the one hand to capitalize in foreign markets the costs incurred on this machine, and on the other hand - to improve the system (of prospective aircraft), "V.Gutenev is sure.
"This is an extremely rational and correct approach, ensuring a balance between the interests of the defense industry complex and the customer," he said.
The deputy believes that in the interests of the defense industry it would be "simply enough to form the export image of the Su-57 with the engine of the second stage."
"This is absolutely correct and pragmatic solution," he said.
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sferrin

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Unread post06 Jul 2018, 13:19

That almost reads like, "huh. Both the F-22 and F-35 detected us without difficulty. Back to the drawing board." On the other hand, how would they know unless they could also detect the F-22 and F-35? :?:
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Unread post06 Jul 2018, 13:31

Let's try and translate this, shall we?

"We'll buy a few examples, just enough for the world to see we use it ourselves". A very few. Call it a baker's dozen"

"This thing is so late, we'll be rolling out our first 5th gen fighter while the rest of the world is flying 6th gen"

"As if the airframe/avionics and weapons weren't taking long enough, the engine ETA is even worse".

"We brought it to Syria, and noticed the F-22 and 35 easily detected it"

"Since we don't want to buy this turkey in any numbers, we'll try and convince other countries to do so"

"The only chance in hell we have of coming up with the $ to build a sixth gen, is convincing enough suckers to buy SU-57's".

Incredibly candid comments from the Russians. They seem to have acknowledged that they couldn't make 5th gen work, and are going to try again with their 6th gen offerings. After all the success Sukhoi had with their Flanker series, this has to be a bitter pill to swallow...



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sferrin

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Unread post06 Jul 2018, 14:25

I guess add the Su-57 to the Mig 1.42 and Su-47 Berkut on the list of failed F-22 wannabes. :shrug:
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zerion

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Unread post06 Jul 2018, 17:03

sferrin wrote: On the other hand, how would they know unless they could also detect the F-22 and F-35? :?:


Well we've been using the F-22 as a sort of AWACS to route coalition aircraft around the Russians, so maybe they flew a 57 close enough and they noticed the coalition aircraft avoid them.

Or we detected them, and we called them on the phone inquiring as to their intentions.
Last edited by zerion on 06 Jul 2018, 20:06, edited 1 time in total.
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mixelflick

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Unread post06 Jul 2018, 17:31

sferrin wrote:I guess add the Su-57 to the Mig 1.42 and Su-47 Berkut on the list of failed F-22 wannabes. :shrug:


Just read a few online articles pertaining to this. The language used here though is startling. It really speaks to putting this thing on the back burner, and the fact it's going to be a LONG time until it's a factor in any major conflict...AL

Also, let's not forget this gem: "Therefore, I agree with the opinion of Yuri Ivanovich (Borisov), according to which we already have experience, when thanks to reasonable technical policy we actually jumped through the generation, saving the budget to a considerable extent," he said.

You see what they did there? They're SO advanced, they're going to just skip the 5th gen fighter thing and move to 6 gen birds! And to think, the U.S. now fields around 500 5th gen aircraft, with plans for over 2,000 more.

Silly Americans... :mrgreen:
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Unread post06 Jul 2018, 21:06

So in the end the Russians realized they win if they are NOT 26 trillion in debt...
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Unread post07 Jul 2018, 05:00

awsome wrote:So in the end the Russians realized they win if they are NOT 26 trillion in debt...


Seems more along the lines of we can field this jet at $85 million and get 30% better overall performance than the jets were are fielding at $30 million and have decades of experience with. Then you factor in that neither is competitive with there main adversaries and why waste the extra money? With the other (Su-35, Su-30sm) you can field a decent amount of them within the tight budget the Russian economy can muster. Will they buy some? Yes, prob 50 or so seems decent enough. If they can master some basic stealthy networking and 5th and 4th gen mixing it could still offer a lot of force improvements for the flankers flying missiles trucks in the back. If they can secure some decent export orders they may get more, are they going to have a answer for the 3,000 F-35's flying around the world, no, but the Su-57 was never going to answer that problem anyways.
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sferrin

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Unread post07 Jul 2018, 14:04

awsome wrote:So in the end the Russians realized they win if they are NOT 26 trillion in debt...


The Su-57 was going to put them $26 trillion in debt? I must have been hella expensive.
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Unread post09 Jul 2018, 15:07

gtg947h wrote:
mixelflick wrote:The question I'd have then, is why? Apparently it wasn't an issue with the Mig 21 or 23. But as soon as the Mig-29 and SU-27 appeared, they went back to twin engine designs. They seem enamored with widely spaced engine nacelles, the "tunnel" between them and blended wing/body designs. I get the fact that kind of airframe carries a lot of gas, but engines are the most expensive part of an aircraft, yes?

It just doesn't make any sense IMO. Single engine birds will be lighter, cheaper and presumably more $ could be put into integrated avionics and SA, where they're also having great difficulty. Once you've settled on a twin engine design, you're baking in expense on top of expense..


Engines are expensive (though maybe not the most expensive part)... but it's going to fall back on mission requirements. If you have some kind of survivability requirement, or some need to make long flights away from a landing area (see Canada's thinking with the original F-18 purchase), you might need that second engine.

Or, perhaps you lack the ability to make an engine of the appropriate thrust level in the time frame you'd need it. If your single-engine design needs an engine with 45klb thrust and you only have engines that make 30k, well...


Yeah, that's a good point. Even the 2nd stage engines for PAK FA are said to put out 39,000lbs in full blower, and who knows when those will be available. An F-35 class offering from Mikoyan would probably need an engine well north of 40,000lbs, especially if it's packed with fuel like the F-35. It boggles the mind really, 18,000lbs of fuel carried by that little jet.

And let's not forget: Russian engines aren't nearly as fuel efficient as their western counterparts. So it'd be a double whammy to the LMFI team and they'd probably have to opt for 2 engines. Of course, this assumes they're still working on it. With no evidence that they are, it's pretty much toast. Shame really, would have liked to see them at least be competitive again...
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Unread post09 Jul 2018, 15:29

mixelflick wrote:Yeah, that's a good point. Even the 2nd stage engines for PAK FA are said to put out 39,000lbs in full blower, and who knows when those will be available. An F-35 class offering from Mikoyan would probably need an engine well north of 40,000lbs, especially if it's packed with fuel like the F-35. It boggles the mind really, 18,000lbs of fuel carried by that little jet.


We don't know real numbers for AL-41F3. 39.000lbs sound unrealistic because engine is 25% lighter then AL-41F1 (1600kg). So F3 is 2670lb (1200kg) so if its thurst is 39k then T/W ratio is 14.6 which is ridiculous. IMO, F3 is have similar AB thrust as F1 but better dry thrust. So it isn't russian F135.
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Unread post10 Jul 2018, 16:45

You see any meaningful production run once the engines are ready?

I don't. Can never be bought in large numbers, adds complexity to the spare parts/logistics chain which is already a nightmare insofar as fielding a half dozen different Flanker variants.

Going to be more of a silver bullet force than the F-22 IMO...
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