PAF F-16 vs MiG-21 - New Evidence

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jedit

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Unread post15 Jan 2020, 02:51

warbird86 wrote:The fact that IAF reduced CAPs over J&K to 4 aircraft at 1000 hrs from 12 aircraft at 0200 hrs.


Do you know if it was the only gap in the 24-30 hours after Indian's own Balakot strike? It would either be good luck that their attack coincided with depleted CAP strength or really smart thinking by PAF, way more than what it is credited for. It is quite plausible IAF thought a retaliatory strike would come in overnight (around the same time they conducted their strike) and stood down at dawn not imagining PAF would strike in the light of day when things could really stretch out of hand.
That was fault of the pilot Abhinandan for not abiding the controller (perhaps due to jamming).
Other three MiG-21 in his formation all abided.


So per your assessment, either,

i- PAF did their job well in jamming Mig21

or

ii- Abhinandan disobeyed a direct order in the heat of the moment crossed over to PAF air space and got shot. PAF by all accounts did not cross which would mean Abhinandan got lured in a trap. He is a pilot with over a decade of formal flying experience and if he can fall for a trap like that either out of sheer adrenaline rush or because of jamming, it doesn't say a lot about IAF's current state of affairs. Imagine if just 1 or 2 other pilots either ignored orders or couldn't keep their location bearings while jammed, it could've either led to greater ignominy for IAF (considering Mi17 fratricide) or would've meant a larger escalation because IAF couldn't but try to level scores in another retaliation. The situation is similar to the one now in Iran where they decided to stand down but face ignominy.
PS: Abhinandan was awarded the Vir Chakra award for gallantry. I am assuming whatever happened is known to IAF internally and awarding a mistake like this is basically political and rhetorical and less for the actual achievement he made of having crossed over inadvertently and getting shot.
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loke

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Unread post06 Feb 2020, 19:45

Incredible, India still seems to officially claim that a Pakistani F-16 was shot down:

Wing Commander Varthaman Abhinandan then pursued a retreating enemy fighter bomber aircraft, and in the ensuing aerial combat, shot down an F-16 ac with his on-board missile.

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/01 ... ation.html
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pafrocks1

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Unread post23 Feb 2020, 16:24

Some more pack of LIES from ex-air cheif

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... QVTCK.html
“We hit the target with five stand-off weapons. The ‘target hit’ information was delayed as weapons for video recording the kill failed, and the satellite pass at 8.30am could not pick up much due to clouds. The first confirmation came through synthetic aperture camera, showing penetration in the roof of Balakot buildings. We hit three buildings and left one deliberately. The weapon is designed in such a way that building survives but the occupants don’t,” he said.
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pafrocks1

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Unread post25 Feb 2020, 02:54

More bad news for Indians.
On 1 anniversary of PAF strike on India, PAF will release more information and possibly about Su-30 kill as well.
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airomerix

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Unread post26 Feb 2020, 23:43

It's official.

Alan Warnes confirms Su-30 loss of Indian Air Force on Feb 27th, 2019.

Watch from 13:30 onwards. You all will love it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaIr3JlYU88

So much for gallantry medals for the wing commander for shooting down F-16. Congratulations to the Pakistan Air Force and F-16 community.
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hythelday

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Unread post27 Feb 2020, 07:11

airomerix wrote:It's official.

Alan Warnes confirms Su-30 loss of Indian Air Force on Feb 27th, 2019.

Watch from 13:30 onwards. You all will love it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaIr3JlYU88

So much for gallantry medals for the wing commander for shooting down F-16. Congratulations to the Pakistan Air Force and F-16 community.


No, it is not.

I don't know who is this Alan Warnes fellow, but he seems to have a long-standing affiliation with PAF. There is no proof presented in the video and I am sure this gung-ho film (I especially loved Indian commanders drinking wine part) will spark a new wave of keyboard skirmishes in this magnificent thread.
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airomerix

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Unread post27 Feb 2020, 15:34

hythelday wrote:
airomerix wrote:It's official.

Alan Warnes confirms Su-30 loss of Indian Air Force on Feb 27th, 2019.

Watch from 13:30 onwards. You all will love it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaIr3JlYU88

So much for gallantry medals for the wing commander for shooting down F-16. Congratulations to the Pakistan Air Force and F-16 community.


No, it is not.

I don't know who is this Alan Warnes fellow, but he seems to have a long-standing affiliation with PAF. There is no proof presented in the video and I am sure this gung-ho film (I especially loved Indian commanders drinking wine part) will spark a new wave of keyboard skirmishes in this magnificent thread.


Having long standing affiliation does not mean you discount the facts presented in the video.

You do not know who Alan Warnes is yet you appear to be a forum veteran here. Allow me to educate you. He has been an editor of Air Forces Monthly magazine for 12 years and visited over 60 Air Forces for their coverage.

Anyway, the recovery of all 4 missiles along with drop tanks does establish the mig was aloof and was preemptively shot down. Conclusively proving the narrative of India to have shot down an F-16 going down. Or you are not willing to concede to that aswell?
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hythelday

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Unread post27 Feb 2020, 17:23

airomerix wrote:
hythelday wrote:
airomerix wrote:It's official.

Alan Warnes confirms Su-30 loss of Indian Air Force on Feb 27th, 2019.

Watch from 13:30 onwards. You all will love it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaIr3JlYU88

So much for gallantry medals for the wing commander for shooting down F-16. Congratulations to the Pakistan Air Force and F-16 community.


No, it is not.

I don't know who is this Alan Warnes fellow, but he seems to have a long-standing affiliation with PAF. There is no proof presented in the video and I am sure this gung-ho film (I especially loved Indian commanders drinking wine part) will spark a new wave of keyboard skirmishes in this magnificent thread.


Having long standing affiliation does not mean you discount the facts presented in the video.

You do not know who Alan Warnes is yet you appear to be a forum veteran here. Allow me to educate you. He has been an editor of Air Forces Monthly magazine for 12 years and visited over 60 Air Forces for their coverage.

Anyway, the recovery of all 4 missiles along with drop tanks does establish the mig was aloof and was preemptively shot down. Conclusively proving the narrative of India to have shot down an F-16 going down. Or you are not willing to concede to that aswell?


Your immediate assumption that I am taking sides simply because I point out the obvious is quite telling. I mean you could check my posts in all three threads about the incident and find posts that are both in line and against your own agenda but why overburden youself?

There was no factual evidence presented confirming the Flanker shoot-down in the video. Mr Warnes was just a talking head with credentials. There are multiple examples of people with impressive credentials who have taken sides before.
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pafrocks1

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Unread post27 Feb 2020, 17:37

hythelday wrote:
Your immediate assumption that I am taking sides simply because I point out the obvious is quite telling. I mean you could check my posts in all three threads about the incident and find posts that are both in line and against your own agenda but why overburden youself?

There was no factual evidence presented confirming the Flanker shoot-down in the video. Mr Warnes was just a talking head with credentials. There are multiple examples of people with impressive credentials who have taken sides before.


hi, you are right that PAF has not provided any evidence so for now its a unconfirmed kill.
however a point to be noted, why would IAF fly mi-17 with 6 personnel in menace of air battle that was still hot? Was it on SAR operation to look for downed Su-30 that fell in their territory?
I think PAF is just avoiding to provide 100% proof of downed su-30 because it would cause India to retaliate which Pakistan wants to avoid.
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hythelday

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Unread post27 Feb 2020, 18:08

pafrocks1 wrote:
hythelday wrote:
Your immediate assumption that I am taking sides simply because I point out the obvious is quite telling. I mean you could check my posts in all three threads about the incident and find posts that are both in line and against your own agenda but why overburden youself?

There was no factual evidence presented confirming the Flanker shoot-down in the video. Mr Warnes was just a talking head with credentials. There are multiple examples of people with impressive credentials who have taken sides before.


hi, you are right that PAF has not provided any evidence so for now its a unconfirmed kill.
however a point to be noted, why would IAF fly mi-17 with 6 personnel in menace of air battle that was still hot? Was it on SAR operation to look for downed Su-30 that fell in their territory?
I think PAF is just avoiding to provide 100% proof of downed su-30 because it would cause India to retaliate which Pakistan wants to avoid.


Listen, I would be the first in line to make fun Indian stronkism and mythical Flanker superiority. And it is not because I have partucularly warm sentiments towards Pakistan.
There are many theories out there, and some of them make sense, but the first combat loss of a Su-30 would be BIG news, that is why many people want to jump the gun on that one, especially in conflict so highly energized with mutual animosity.
So far there is no definitive evidence that this happened.
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Unread post27 Feb 2020, 20:13

airomerix wrote:Having long standing affiliation does not mean you discount the facts presented in the video.



hythelday is correct, it is a documentary and it is pretty much all presented from the Pakistan point of view.

There is nothing there that constitutes evidence that an Su-30 was shot down.

As documentaries go it was good they managed to get comments from some of the main players - and the unseen (by me) footage of the MiG-21 wreckage where ever it is stored now.
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Unread post05 Mar 2020, 07:29

basher54321 wrote:
airomerix wrote:Having long standing affiliation does not mean you discount the facts presented in the video.



hythelday is correct, it is a documentary and it is pretty much all presented from the Pakistan point of view.

There is nothing there that constitutes evidence that an Su-30 was shot down.

As documentaries go it was good they managed to get comments from some of the main players - and the unseen (by me) footage of the MiG-21 wreckage where ever it is stored now.


I agree there is still no concrete evidence of a Su30 kill. However two things emerge as surprising.

1- PAF released high res images and video of the recovered AAMs on the Mig21 some of which show serials that Indian supporters so adamantly stated PAF would never be able to present because it had faked the missile shards. As preposterous as it sounds, some fairly educated Indian trolls went as far as showing ebay links of R73 mockups that they felt PAF had purchased to show as missiles recovered off the Mig 21 so it can pretend that none hit and shot down its F16.
R73 and R77 aren't Indian indigenous platforms so by presenting high res close up imagery and serials of (some of) the missile remnants, PAF has opened itself to critique from anyone who knows the platform inside out, and there are many across the world who employ these missiles. PAF remained coy for a year about showing more evidence related to the the missiles and this gave Indian supporters confidence that PAF is faking it. PAF did offer neutral analysts to visit and analyze the remnants of the missiles to see if they have been tampered with or fake from the get go, but that was less of a surprise compared to openly releasing hi-res images.

2- Mig21's drop tanks were recovered on the Pakistani side, presumably with the wreckage and this is pretty much uncontested. Even if they were jettisoned prior to being shot down, the fact that they landed well within Pakistani controlled territory tells you that he either crossed into enemy territory with the drop tanks or dropped tanks within a stone's throw of enemy's territory, close enough that momentum took them across into Pakistani territory. This doesn't say much about the skills of a supposedly super human Mig21 pilot who shot down an F16 before being shot seconds later.

I encourage interested people to skip to 28:42 of the video (link posted below for reference) and look at the responses of an air chief whose leadership saw a Mig 21 shoot down the sworn nuclear neighbor enemy's most advanced jet fighter in air defense no less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaIr3JlYU88

Do any of you agree this is look and reply of a content air force veteran (chief of air staff no less) a couple of months before his retirement. He has also in his previous interviews always cited looking at open source Intel rather than rely on his force's presented evidence. He has also in his India Today conclave interview admitted that they believe an enemy jet went down but they unfortunately do not have evidence for it.

**BTW, I looked at his full interview on Times Now and could not find this collage snippet that creators of this documentary have extracted suggesting it may have been edited out. I would appreciate it if someone can link me to the original source interview that contains this sentence. I couldn't find it after watching 3 videos.
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Unread post05 Mar 2020, 19:27

jedit wrote:However two things emerge as surprising.


Point 1 - If they are genuine then your government has nothing to fear from releasing those photos - all I can say really.

Point 2 - The video shows one drop tank and that is all there should be if it was carrying a 2 x R-73 and 2 x R-77 symmetric configuration.

The drop tank being there tells us nothing of the pilots skill or what happened. Aircraft of this era demonstrated many times that drop tanks sometimes fail to drop when needed.

I don't think anything can really be deduced from the Indian Air Force guy in the interview.
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Unread post07 Mar 2020, 02:17

basher54321 wrote:Point 1 - If they are genuine then your government has nothing to fear from releasing those photos - all I can say really.

Point 2 - The video shows one drop tank and that is all there should be if it was carrying a 2 x R-73 and 2 x R-77 symmetric configuration.

The drop tank being there tells us nothing of the pilots skill or what happened. Aircraft of this era demonstrated many times that drop tanks sometimes fail to drop when needed.

I don't think anything can really be deduced from the Indian Air Force guy in the interview.


1- It is a never ending argument. It is not about fear but about incentive or need. PAF has zero incentive to heed to desperate calls by Indians to show serials of missiles. Satisfying Indian calls for serials is not the job of PAF but that of IAF which has been found quite short of the target. For almost a year, many Indian supporters have claimed Pakistan's refusal to present counter-evidence (in the form of missile serials) to negate Indian claims (F16) as another bit of the 'circumstantial' evidence. This is false equivalence and for anyone with thinking faculties, IAF still has all to do to prove they shot down an F16. Till PAF didn't show serials, it was one of the things everyone parroted as PAF's attempts to hide evidence but from now onward, it will be PAF faking it. You don't have to be a psychologist to understand what this behavior is called. Denial mode!

2- A claim that requires empirical evidence to back in both cases. If the mechanism was working, then it raises a question mark on pilot's situational awareness. If it wasn't working, then it raises questions about the Chief's assertion that they were ready and prepared for the counter strike. You don't field your oldest and least fit fighter in the best preparation scenario. Again, its not a given that any of this is true but there have been so many claims from the aggrieved side in this case that any bit of information negates at least one of their claims.

Lastly, my educational background leads me to analyze the interviewee's behavior critically so I have put it as a question and not as an assertion or a claim. I do not need to ascertain the truth value of claims but wanted a comment from another person/s on whether they picked up on fairly evident cues of discomfort in addressing questions about the events of those 2 days especially Feb 27th.
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Unread post07 Mar 2020, 12:06

jedit wrote:2- A claim that requires empirical evidence to back in both cases. If the mechanism was working, then it raises a question mark on pilot's situational awareness. If it wasn't working, then it raises questions about the Chief's assertion that they were ready and prepared for the counter strike.




During Vietnam (that era) more than once the tanks failed to drop or stopped transferring fuel - although you cant rule out poor maintenance, sometimes it is just bad luck.

Reason number two - a pilot basically forgets to drop the tank due to the stress of the situation (more likely than most would think) - Poor SA can be a contributing factor.

(Who told that Alan guy in the video that it was SOP for the IAF to drop the center line tank? )

to add - the Bis manual shows limits of 5G for the 490L and 4G for the 800L (fuel weight not mentioned) so that might be a good reason to ditch them - if that still applied and it represented the upper limit.



jedit wrote:You don't field your oldest and least fit fighter in the best preparation scenario. Again, its not a given that any of this is true but there have been so many claims from the aggrieved side in this case that any bit of information negates at least one of their claims.


The MiG-21s are the IAFs oldest and least fit fighters in any scenario - they were supposed to have been phased out by now were they not?
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