What if... France dumps the Rafale for the F-35?

The Rafale is suffering from very extensive delays and extreme cost overruns. Its been in perpetual obsolesence since its inception.

Because of this, per unit cost of the aircraft increases immensly as the French put their efforts in the next Fx variant. However these efforts fail to bring the aircraft out of the "obsolete" category.

With the debut of the F-35 around the corner (in 2009) signaling a proverbial final nail in the coffin, and the Rafale failing to secure any export orders, the French gov't decides the unthinkable:

Kill the Rafale program. Focus on UAV efforts. And purchase the F-35A for its Armée de l'Air. The F-35C and the F/A-18E/F compete for the Aviation Navale.

Frankly... if the Rafale cannot secure export sales and finally become competitive, then this may be an eventuality. Well, maybe in a cold day in hell... I mean... Paris.

very unlikely, when you consider the year of operational use of the JSF around 2013, in contrast to 2009 you mention skrip00 (as the evaluation tests will be over around the end of 2012). OTOH, in contrast to 25-30M USD per unit cost declared in 2001, it is also said that because of the delays and problems the cost is around 60-70M now with an optimistic view. Some say it may even pass 100M. One other issue is the widely-discussed source-code issue. US only shared the source code of the JSF with the UK among the 9 participant countries. When you consider France has every detail of the souce code of its aircraft, what the hack, they will switch to JSF for? while terminating the very capable Rafale...

skrip00 wrote:The Rafale is suffering from very extensive delays and extreme cost overruns. Its been in perpetual obsolesence since its inception.

Please don't mix the actual status of Rafale and EF2000. One is in operational service since 2004, costs £35m on average and is already ordered in its last anticipated standard. All of this with an "extreme" cost overrun of 4%.
Get your facts straight. Thank you.

Hah! "Operational" you say? Barely. Numerically and capability wise, it is the most handicapped of aircraft to come out of Europe.

Also, there are program-related cost overruns. As well as a certain 10 year delay to enter service. As well as immensly lacking "omni-role" capabilities as advertised.

In 2009 the decsion is made. Not the actual purchase. Thats when they decide to finally pull the plug on the program.

When you consider France has every detail of the souce code of its aircraft, what the hack, they will switch to JSF for? while terminating the very capable Rafale...

"Very Capable" is yet to be seen. But the F-35A is the more capable platform, and ends up bein $70mil at the end.

"Very Capable" is yet to be seen. But the F-35A is the more capable platform, and ends up bein $70mil at the end.

I am not French but I know French Air Force is quite good, as they started to use it, there must be something...we dont know exactly how much capable the JSF is either, skrip, and "more capable" we can only estimate.... JSF is not operational yet, but hope it's better as we're also going to use it...

Well, the Rafale is toted as some sort of "omni-role" aircraft, the French Marketting scheme for "multi-role". Yet, as of now, it can only be used in an AtA capacity, as the AtG F2 variant is just finishing up with testing.

But even in the air, its radar sucks. And its performance is less than current export F-16s.

Right now, even the most conservative estimate of the F-35's capabilities shows it would be the superior. Primarily due to its stealth.

<<But even in the air, its radar sucks. And its performance is less than current export F-16s. >>

Any links on that??

Cant find any off the top of my head. But the French admitted their RBE2 performance was less to be desired, and even sacrificed overall airframe production to secure funds to develop a new radar.

skrip00 wrote:The Rafale is suffering from very extensive delays and extreme cost overruns. Its been in perpetual obsolesence since its inception.

Because of this, per unit cost of the aircraft increases immensly as the French put their efforts in the next Fx variant. However these efforts fail to bring the aircraft out of the "obsolete" category.

With the debut of the F-35 around the corner (in 2009) signaling a proverbial final nail in the coffin, and the Rafale failing to secure any export orders, the French gov't decides the unthinkable:

Kill the Rafale program. Focus on UAV efforts. And purchase the F-35A for its Armée de l'Air. The F-35C and the F/A-18E/F compete for the Aviation Navale.

Frankly... if the Rafale cannot secure export sales and finally become competitive, then this may be an eventuality. Well, maybe in a cold day in hell... I mean... Paris.

The first part is ammusing as thats exactly the discription of the F-35 after this the Rafale still meets the French needs much more then the F-35 does. Eventhough I believe alot of the Air to Air potential of the F-35 is being kept secret I dont think it comes close to matching the Rafale in A-A which is what the French want most from the role the Rafale is going to fill in so... Impossible plus this would have too mean a complete equipment switch as test/maintanance etc. tools are all different from eachother when you compare American and French tools.

skrip00 wrote:In 2009 the decsion is made. Not the actual purchase. Thats when they decide to finally pull the plug on the program.

The 2009 decision is related to the next standard, that is F4, for an introduction into service by 2012 to complement 120 Rafale F3 ordered so far and to be delivered (59 from factory, the others by retrofits from F1/F2).

skrip00 wrote:Also, there are program-related cost overruns. As well as a certain 10 year delay to enter service. As well as immensly lacking "omni-role" capabilities as advertised.

Program-related cost overruns : 4%
10 year delay : For political reasons.
Immensly lacking "omni-role" capabilities : Funded, ordered in 2004, being worked on, to be delivered by 2008, aka "Rafale F3". BTW, "omni-role" means ALL roles, including recce and nuclear strikes.
Now spare us your biased comments. You clearly don't know what you're talking about.

Extensive delays and extreme cost overruns for the F-35 Lightning II?? Not likely.

The F-35 program began in the year 2000. First flight is in 2006. Service entry 2012.

So far the most costly variant, the F-35B is about $91mil USD. And pound for pound, the cost is well worth it.

Skrip is right about the RBE-2 PESA, its detective ranges are very very poor.

Toan, using manufacturer/pilots statements as a baseline and utilising the correct mathematical formula calculated the detective ranges of a number of radars for different RCS signatures. They did also show how poor the RBE-2 is, even when compared to the APG-80 (AESA in F-16E) and the Captor (MESA in the Typhoon). So when you try to compare it to CAESAR, Apg-77, Apg-81 (all pretty much in the same detective capability class); it doesn't really have a chance.

Here are the figures:
CAPTOR（EF-2000 Tranch 1 and 2）：
For RCS 0.0001 m2 class target: 12 km+
For RCS 0.001 m2 class target: 22 km+
For RCS 0.1 m2 class target: 70 km+
For RCS 1.0 m2 class target: 124 km+
For RCS 5.0 m2 class target: 185 km+
For RCS 10.0 m2 class target: 220 km+

APG-80 AESA（F-16E）：
For RCS 0.0001 m2 class target: 11 km+
For RCS 0.001 m2 class target: 20 km+
For RCS 0.1 m2 class target: 62 km+
For RCS 1.0 m2 class target: 110 km+
For RCS 5.0 m2 class target: 165 km+
For RCS 10.0 m2 class target: 195 km+

RBE-2 PESA（Rafale F1/F2/F3）：
For RCS 0.0001 m2 class target: 7~9 km+
For RCS 0.001 m2 class target: 13~15 km+
For RCS 0.1 m2 class target: 41~49 km+
For RCS 1.0 m2 class target: 73~87 km+
For RCS 5.0 m2 class target: 110~130 km+
For RCS 10.0 m2 class target: 130~154 km+

Now compare that against its current or future competitors radars and/or upgrades. It is not yet known if Rafale will accept CASESAR or will take the (often viewed inferior) AMSAR.

APG-77 AESA（F-22A）：
For RCS 0.0001 m2 class target: 20 km+
For RCS 0.001 m2 class target: 35 km+
For RCS 0.1 m2 class target: 112 km+
For RCS 1.0 m2 class target: 200 km+
For RCS 5.0 m2 class target: 300 km+
For RCS 10.0 m2 class target: 355 km+

CAESAR AESA（EF-2000 Tranch3, post-2015 with 1,500 T/Rs）：
For RCS 0.0001 m2 class target: 18~21 km+
For RCS 0.001 m2 class target: 32~38 km+
For RCS 0.1 m2 class target: 104~122 km+
For RCS 1.0 m2 class target: 185~216 km+
For RCS 5.0 m2 class target: 278~324 km+
For RCS 10.0 m2 class target: 330~385 km+

APG-81 AESA（F-35A/B/C）：
For RCS 0.0001 m2 class target: 16 km+
For RCS 0.001 m2 class target: 28 km+
For RCS 0.1 m2 class target: 90 km+
For RCS 1.0 m2 class target: 160 km+
For RCS 5.0 m2 class target: 240 km+
For RCS 10.0 m2 class target: 285 km+

Sadly there are no figures calculated for AMSAR.

Andy

Program-related cost overruns : 4%
10 year delay : For political reasons.
Immensly lacking "omni-role" capabilities : Funded, ordered in 2004, being worked on, to be delivered by 2008, aka "Rafale F3". BTW, "omni-role" means ALL roles, including recce and nuclear strikes.
Now spare us your biased comments. You clearly don't know what you're talking about.

Excuses, excuses. For ever failed Rafale export deal there is another F waiting for it.

4% overruns doesnt tell the whole story of airframe sacrifice for more funding. Basically, the program is being cut so money will be available.

"Omni-role" is a BS term. Fighters like the F-4 Phantom II we're just as "omni-role". So give me a break.

Last but not least: Why would the French even bother continuing the Rafale? Its a failure in the export market. The market in which it needs to succeed. By the time it does become competative, the F-35 will be available.

So why would anyone in their right mind purchase the Rafale? It's apparant that even the French Gov't has a lack of faith in the program and its potential to success.

Why would the French even bother? The Rafale has done its job. It's kept the French aircraft industry on life-support for many years. Now its time to pull the plug.

skrip00 wrote:Cant find any off the top of my head. But the French admitted their RBE2 performance was less to be desired, and even sacrificed overall airframe production to secure funds to develop a new radar.

Yet another misunderstanding of your own.

RBE-2 performance (search/track range) is in par with RDY (Mirage 2000-5). It has been said to be "fatally flawed" because it's a PESA, not an AESA. It combines the weaknesses of both AESA (decreased detection range at high sweep angles) and MESA (single TWT). It's also flawed because it's less attractive on export when compared to AESA.

The order placed in 2004 for 59 Rafale F3 might be reduced by 8 units to dispatch funds to develop a state of the art AESA antenna. This is a budgetary measure aimed at speeding up this development, and not an overall reduction in airframe production. The driving factor here are anticipated export orders, if any. In case there's no such order(s), nothing will change and the new antenna will be developped later (2012 or so) to match the introduction into service of the Meteor AAM (so called "F4 standard", to be defined/decided in 2009).

France though will continue Rafale.

Their government have a habbit of supporting their industry even past the point of liquidation and at the expense of other nations economies (see: peugeot citroen, closing their most efficient profit making factory as the overall company made a loss on the orders of the government. That factory happens to be 5 miles from me!)

Rafale will definately get some sales in the future, most likely from M2000 operators that are heavily reliant on France. Basically all the nations that want the best they can buy within their political spectrum (either F-35 or Typhoon) will no purchase Rafale as it is poor compared to them. But countries with no other choice will get Rafale.

They market Omni-role as they claim it can operate 2-3 missions at the same time by just flicking a switch; its a PR stunt though, the F/A-18E, latest block F-16s, F-35, Typhoon and Gripen (plus probably a few others) also have this capability.

Andy