Dutch MoD choose definitely for F-35

[Corsair1963]

I told you.... And 37+ will be the maximum for now, no money for follow on orders or so, but still: we will get the F-35! For the better observers: all partners already ordered, or reconsidered and ordered the F-35, despite the doom messages of the nah sayers (the so called domino effect which will just not start). Only ones to follow are the Danes and the Canadians...and guess what: they will order them as well... read my lips! Just like Turkey, UK, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, USMC, USAF and USN.

Your 100% Correct...........(IMO)

[m]

Why would the Dutch be an example for heavens sake? There are plenty of articles now describing the intentions of Australia for example as well as the USofA protecting the F-35 buy. Europe have bad economies. Shirley when / if their economies improve they may buy more is the implication I see. But hey I'm the glass half full viewer. Programs of Record are for a reason and we look forward to LM adjusting such a record in the next 'Fast Facts' edition.

Spaz, ever tought about this? The Dutch always intended to order the F35 in batches.
In fact they even did order more F35’s then planned in 2009
37 (35 +2) in stead of 27 (25 + 2)
Or they will order a second batch? We don’t know.

We have financial problems, may be a political decision at he moment not really mentioning a second batch, only a possibility some more F35’s?
It’s a kind of strange there is no sign decreasing the number f16’s to 37?
At the moment operational: 68 F16’s (This numbere is not quite true, not yet sold F16’s are still flying in the Airforce)
From 68 F16’s the number decreases to 61.
This number of seven less F16’s will be operational reserve F16’s.

nr. 159
BRIEF VAN DE STAATSSECRETARIS VAN DEFENSIE EN MINISTER VAN ECONOMISCHE ZAKEN
Aan de Voorzitter van de Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal
Den Haag, 27 maart 2009

In this letter (2009) a schedule of a first batch: 27 F35’s, 2 Test F35’s included.
This is a schedule of a first batch as mentioned in the letter of 2009

2009: 1 (First test F35)
2010: 1 (Second test F35)
2010: Decision replacement F-16, first batch
2012: 2
2013: 4
2014: 9
2015: 10
Total: 27

After 2015 (decennium): decision second batch

[spazsinbad]

To be accurate from vague memory it seems a lot of countries are ordering in batches: UK, Australia and Israel for example have or will order in batches soonish. Just using the Dutch as an example of overall order decrease for every country was not appropriate. That was my point. Good to know the Dutch will be having a likely second batch later (see countries above).

[spazsinbad]

Dutch Statement: originally from: http://blogs.star-telegram.com/sky_talk ... ghter.html

Dutch Government Statement on Its F-35 Selection 17 Sep 2013

"The F-16 has unequivocally proven its worth for the armed forces in intervention and stabilization operations.

In the coming decades, we will continue to require fighter aircraft.

After comparing the candidates in 2001 and 2008, and updating the relevant information in 2013, the government has decided, on operational, financial and economic grounds, to select the F 35 as the new fighter aircraft for the Netherlands armed forces.

The F-35 is a well-considered choice for a high-tech, future-oriented air force.

From a military operational perspective, the F-35 offers the greatest number of options. It is also the most future-proof option. The aircraft is best able to deal with the proliferation of mobile air defense systems and offers vastly improved observation capabilities, which are of great value in any type of mission.

In addition, the aircraft offers great potential for follow-on development, particularly in the area of network-enabled operations.

Also important are the possibilities for international cooperation in areas such as training, sustainment and deployment. NATO’s analyses underpin the Netherlands’ decision.

With this decision, which concludes a process of almost fifteen years, the Netherlands is responding to the Alliance ‘s call for investment in quality and, consequently, in the collective security of the Alliance. The decision also consolidates the opportunities for the Dutch industry to gain contracts for high-quality work, both in the production of the F-35 and in the sustainment phase.

The cutbacks in Defence budgets which many NATO member states, including the Netherlands, are facing demand careful consideration and astute choices. Above all, opting for a modest number of the best aircraft attests to a sense of reality.

International cooperation is the ideal way to further optimize operational effectiveness. An important step in this respect is the intention of Belgium and the Netherlands to patrol the Benelux airspace together. These Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) and Renegade tasks currently place heavy demands on the pilots and aircraft of the two separate countries.

Cooperation will therefore significantly benefit both countries. A treaty will be required in order to be able to carry out these tasks in each other’s airspace.

In many areas, the introduction of a next-generation fighter aircraft will lead to new insights and applications. The Royal Netherlands Air Force, research institutes and the commercial sector have the innovative potential to play a leading role internationally in this respect.

The organizational management of the air force will be structured in such a way as to guarantee optimum operational output at all times. With the introduction of the F-35, the possibilities for pilots to maintain their skills after their operational period will be reduced to a minimum. This is to ensure that the available flying hours are primarily used for operational pilots.

It has been decided that the replacement will be carried out entirely within the previously reserved investment budget of 4.5 billion euros and the current operating budget for the F-16, which amounts to 270 million euros per year. This will prevent budget displacement effects, which sooner or later would be to the detriment of other capabilities.

As the cost per unit and the operating costs for the F-35 are as yet not definite, there will be a contingency reserve of ten percent for the investments and the operating costs. This can be used to meet any unforeseen rise in the estimated costs, without any direct consequences for the number of aircraft. Opting to maintain tight financial parameters underscores once more that the Defence organization is determined to put and keep its finances in order. Based on the current insights, the available financial room is sufficient for the purchase of 37 aircraft.

The Defence organization will from now on base its plans on that number and will inform its partners in the F-35 program accordingly.

If, within the given financial parameters, room is created in the coming years to purchase more aircraft, the Defence organization will do so. This may be the case if the contingency reserve is not used in full and if the price per unit of the F-35 turns out to be lower than is currently expected. In that case, in addition to the deployment possibilities referred to earlier, the air force would also be able to provide a short-term contribution to a second large-scale operation, as was done recently in Libya.

The order system allows the final number of aircraft to be kept within the available budget. Should any unexpected major changes occur in terms of product, time or money, the project will be reviewed within the given financial parameters, if those changes exceed the margins of the project budget.

Compared with the current fleet of F-16s, the air force will in future be able to deploy fewer F-35s for longer periods of time. In addition to the permanent deployment for the protection of Dutch and Allied airspace, with 37 F-35s the Netherlands will continue to be able to deploy four fighter aircraft, simultaneously and continuously, to support Dutch ground troops as was done in Uruzgan and is still being done in Kunduz.

In 2014, the current number of F-16s will be reduced by 7, to 61. This will reduce the investment costs involved in maintaining the F 16 for a longer period of time. The 7 aircraft will be added to the logistic reserve, to improve the deployability of the remaining 61.

The deployability goals for the period up to the replacement of the F-16 will be adjusted accordingly. The F-16s and pilots stationed in the Netherlands will be divided into three squadrons.

On the basis of the current estimated timescale, the introduction of the F 35 will begin in 2019. The air force will decommission the last F-16s in the mid-2020s.

As the noise regulations in the Netherlands do not permit concentration of all aircraft at one air base, Volkel and Leeuwarden will both remain in operation as the two Dutch fighter air bases.

In 2015, however, the status of Leeuwarden will be changed from a Main Operating Base to a Deployed Operating Base. This means that the functionalities of the base will be limited to the necessary minimum. The overheads will be concentrated at Volkel Air Base."

http://www.sldinfo.com/dutch-government ... selection/

[newmanfrigan]

I would also point out that the "44% of the original purchase" schema is also flawed in that it ignores the purchases of Israel, Japan etc. We also have to consider that Singapore, Spain and others will likely purchase the F-35. Belgium has signalled interest. This will go a long way to ameliorate any cuts in orders.

I'd also be stunned if the Koreans go ahead with F-15s. It's a choice that was made by beancounters and it surely won't sit well with the ROKAF. It seems to me that the F35 program has actually gotten over the hump. The dire forecasts of death spiral just haven't come true and the viewpoint that the fighter is flawed is definitely not shared by those whose opinion really matters in the airforces of the World. The letter from the Korean generals objecting to the F-15 purchase is just one of many examples of this.

It's never going to be a smooth ride vis a vis public opinion for such an expensive military project...at least in Europe and North America. Countries like Russia and China will probably be much more reluctant to reveal setbacks, cost overruns etc. I'm not aware of any beancounting agencies like the GAO in these countries. Also, public opinion in Russia and China tends to be supportive of these projects, whereas there is a knee jerk in the opposite direction in the West. My two cents.

[maus92]

Labour members rebel on JSF, audit office says figures don't add up

Thursday 19 September 2013

"The cabinet may have agreed to spend €4.5bn on 37 JSF fighter jets, but criticism of the decision is mounting both inside and outside parliament.

The government's audit office said on Thursday it had doubts about the defence ministry's spending plans and that there are gaps in the calculations about use of the JSF.

'The audit office does not support the statement that the defence ministry's vision will lead to a financially and operationally sustainable armed forces,' the statement said."

- See more at: http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2 ... xgHyf.dpuf

[spazsinbad]

It seems to me (as apparently the Tea Party does to the Republican Party) that the ordinary Labour members wish to influence the Labour leader decision makers unduly in the Dutch Government. How good is that. I look forward to a paralysed government - similar to the US Congress these days.... I wonder what the track record is of the members of Dutch Parliament being able to overturn the decision makers of the Labour Party?

[m]

It seems to me (as apparently the Tea Party does to the Republican Party) that the ordinary Labour members wish to influence the Labour leader decision makers unduly in the Dutch Government. How good is that. I look forward to a paralysed government - similar to the US Congress these days.... I wonder what the track record is of the members of Dutch Parliament being able to overturn the decision makers of the Labour Party?

The problem is the number F35;s, a too low number to do the job.
As explained by their leader of the pvda on TV

[spazsinbad]

Politics is all about using Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. FUD. Nothing new really and I'll assume that the Dutch Parliament works like other democratic parliaments in that decisions are made by the ruling coalition (in this case) but criticised by all and sundry yet manage to be implemented nevertheless? Or does the tail wag the dog?

[m]

Best reading this:

'Decision on JSF is the PvdA'
Editorial - 20/09/13, 11:55


In the long-running case on the JSF is the word now to the PvdA. "This is not unlike other Cabinet decisions," said Labour Minister Lilianne Ploumen of Foreign Trade and Development before the Cabinet.
According to Deputy Prime Minister and Lodewijk Asscher (PvdA) is all about the difference between the government and parliament. "We control and they control the House and take the job seriously."

According Asscher Samson can still say no to the JSF. "I saw yesterday," he referred to the statements of Samson at Pauw & Witteman. If the government does not come with a good foundation, "it is not by" Samson said last night.

According to him, it is not clear or may be to do what the military wants to do everything. Enough equipment bought The Court was also critical of the decision because the calculations on the readiness of the JSF as the successor to the F16 are "not complete" are. The report shows that according to Samson "still some uncertainties, exactly at the point where we want to see collateral. The sum is now complete and therefore not convincing," said Samson.

Rather let Minister Frans Timmermans know that the PvdA members could agree in the Cabinet because they had been on three key questions. Who went about the cost and the number that the Netherlands can purchase the technology of the device and the future tasks that the JSF to perform.

Samson is not as far as Timmermans, but can be by Minister Hennis like to convince, "but with the right information." Asscher points out once again that MPs should have to say the room. Earlier Labour group members expressed their displeasure that they were made by the decision. Before the block

Minister Hennis stated today that the process surrounding the decision on the JSF is carefully completed. She therefore confident that when they debate in November a majority behind its plans will be able to get. They all said Thursday that "the beauty of parliamentary democracy is that the groups and the Chamber may make their own decisions."

Labour: "too many uncertainties"
The PvdA could "not support" the decision of the Cabinet to the JSF purchase. That said Labour leader Diederik Samsom Friday after lengthy deliberation fraction.

He referred to a critical report by the General Court. It follows that there are "too many uncertainties" are around the JSF, including on the question whether the Netherlands four of the 37 devices can work for an international mission at any time.

The group is 'united' in its position, Samson said. He added that the group has some sympathy for the choice of the government for the JSF and the reasoning that the JSF is the best device for the Dutch and ambitions for the deployment of the Dutch armed forces.

Samson: "We want an air force that many may abroad, including protecting our men and women in hard work they do and include also bring peace and security in unstable regions that, you have a successor to the F-16 needed. . We understand the choice of the government, but this is more than just a type, it is also about numbers and quantities aircraft missions.''

Samson goes with this view Saturday also to the Labour Council of Members in Zwolle. The supporters of his party is against the purchase of the new American fighter. He loves it possible for the group finally agrees to the JSF. If the PvdA securities not get is that "certainly conceivable.
http://translate.google.com/translate?s ... ctie.dhtml

[spazsinbad]

A bit incomprehensible (from translation) but thanks. I'll wait for an English version and the outcome of all the hoohaa at some future time. Just politics to me which will have an outcome (already decided but just clamour for clamour sake it seems to me).

[m]

A bit incomprehensible (from translation) but thanks. I'll wait for an English version and the outcome of all the hoohaa at some future time. Just politics to me which will have an outcome (already decided but just clamour for clamour sake it seems to me).

You are right. He said he was surprised the audit office came wilh. Impossible, he must have known already at sept. 5
He agreed this summer, there is hardly no way back.for him. The file needs to be closed after all these years. In november I hope we can and fly the jet instead of all this bloody sh ...

[spazsinbad]

Seems to me the Dutch like to agonise in the same way the Canadians are prone. Oh well. Good luck.

[treebeard]

The whole things is a bit of a political cock up.

The Labour party members seated in the House of Representatives know all too well that the entire idea of spending 4,5 billion on F-35A's ("JSF's") is hugely unpopular amongst their voters. They are heavily cutting programs and budgets related to things they valued the most in the recent elections, whereas reduced defense spending was, as always, one of their primary means to pay up for those ideas. On the other hand it should be made clear that postponing or cancelling a F-35A purchase does not necessarily mean that the reserved 4,5 billion can be used elsewhere. This is only possible when the complete idea of replacing our F-16s gets nulled and the reserved budget of 4,5 billion is cut from the yearly defense budget. That in itself is not something I see a lot of parties do (save the ones on the left and right flank).

Even though the labour part of government (their respective ministers) have accepted the idea of buying the F-35A, their members and voters remain rather critical due to the critical press of the last couple of years. For the past few days there have been several discussions, between both the Labour ministers and the Labour representatives in parliament as well as within a Labour party congress in which voters are allowed to give a frame of mind. The result of todays votings within the Labour party were quite simple: motions to stop our participation within the JSF test phase (something the Labour party supported before joining government) and organise a second congress concerning this particular subject did not pass, whereas a vote requesting more information concerning the lifetime costs and operational capabilities of 37 aircraft passed. Seeing how party leader Samsom made clear that this information would be crucial for the position of their vote in the House of Representatives, I suspect that both the MoD and the government will be coming around with extended clarifications of their ideas on operational capacity (2023: 4 F-35A reserved for international missions, QRA tasks shared with Belgium) and operational costs using the latest Pentagon calculations.

All in all it's rather strange that Labour of all parties chooses the question the operational sustainability of the 4-jet goal with 37 aircraft as they were amongst the foremost parties promoting further defense cuts and were part of the government that reduced the overall reserved budget for a F-16 replacement. Despite earlier criticism concerning the F-35A and the JSF project this seems to be the primairy concern on behalf of the representatives in parliament, seeing how Labour has accepted the technical fact that the F-35A is the best of all alternatives that were taken into consideration as a possible replacement.

[sasheska]

First of all this government has to survive the next few weeks, which is a bit 50/50. They have no majority in parliament, two parties have already indicated that they will not cooperate at all. Some of the other parties were irritated to their max in a debate yesterday which has reduced their chance of cooperation. Which means that this government has a high chance of not getting any plan through parliament. At that point their will be such a political deadlock that the only option is to resign and have new elections. Which has a 80% chance of a anti F35 majority. The government parties are reduced to nothing in polls and have lost the trust of many voters for a long time.
There is a decision (which by the look of it, is no decision at all), there has not been a vote, there is no signed contract.

And next batches? The airforce hardly has the budget to operate F35's. The economic outlook and the budget needs of other area's (health, pensions, rising sea levels and the need for better sea defence) don't leave any room for later batches. Maybe when they loose 10 due to crashes or battle, they might order another 10. More than 37 in the next 20 years is wishful thinking.

M writes about Dutch F16's in a post above. Talking about 68 operational F16's..... Because of tight budgets, the number of F16's able to fly is less than 45. The other ones are harvested for parts to keep the flying ones operational. There is no budget to maintain them all. The choice for only 37 F35's is therefore logical, it is probably close to the number of F16's they can realistically keep in the air at this moment.