Optimal 5th:4th gen ratio?

Spudman's numbers are from 2012.
Flightglobals numbers are from FY2015.

Cost between F-16 and F-35 will eventually close up to 2/3 (in favor of the F-16) and this seems pretty realistic.

Spudman's numbers are from the FY2018 Selected Acquisition Report (the numbers are in baseline year 2012 dollars, not from 2012) and are the forecasted figures of the F-35's CPFH (with the estimate last updated on March 7th, 2016), used to calculate the jet's lifecycle O&S cost (the (in then-year dollars) $1.1 trillion figure / $1.5 trillion when production and R&D are added in).

The USN is buying more SHs and the Israelis are reported to favor new F-15s in lieu of more F-35s so it would appear CONOPS will largely determine the ideal ratio which would be unique to every air arm.

I thought the Israeli's were interested in more F-35's, not new build F-15's. They'll take our leftovers and modify the hell out of them, but as for new jets - believe they're only interested in more F-35's.

Which if you ask me, is telling...

Per today's announcement of ALIS 3.0 being released for fleet integration

Gowder asserted that the release of 3.0 fixes some of the problems that have led to F-35 sustainment costs taking too long to come down, and as it spreads throughout the fleet in 2018, “I think you’ll see a big improvement” in sustainability this year, she predicted. With a further update in 2019, more progress should be made, she added.

http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... -Slow.aspx

The USN is buying more SHs and the Israelis are reported to favor new F-15s in lieu of more F-35s so it would appear CONOPS will largely determine the ideal ratio which would be unique to every air arm.

I thought the Israeli's were interested in more F-35's, not new build F-15's. They'll take our leftovers and modify the hell out of them, but as for new jets - believe they're only interested in more F-35's.

Which if you ask me, is telling...

I think you hit the nail on the head. As Israel has no real interest in New Built F-15's. So, I would expect to see them place an additional order for more F-35's in the near future. While, acquiring some more used F-15D's from the US to be upgraded to Israeli Standards.

The USN is buying more SHs and the Israelis are reported to favor new F-15s in lieu of more F-35s so it would appear CONOPS will largely determine the ideal ratio which would be unique to every air arm.

I thought the Israeli's were interested in more F-35's, not new build F-15's. They'll take our leftovers and modify the hell out of them, but as for new jets - believe they're only interested in more F-35's.

Which if you ask me, is telling...

I think you hit the nail on the head. As Israel has no real interest in New Built F-15's. So, I would expect to see them place an additional order for more F-35's in the near future. While, acquiring some more used F-15D's from the US to be upgraded to Israeli Standards.

They got their mits on it (F-35) and their tune changed real fast. Previously, they expressed interest in the F-15SE. Haven't heard a word about it since LOL. It's likely that in addition to the sensors and SA, they've since experienced its raw power and agility. It climbs like an Eagle, rates like a Viper and has nose pointing authority better than a SH. The latter is new to them, and if anyone can use it to their advantage its Israeli pilots.

And then of course, there's the invisibility switch. Custom made for strikes in Syria (with Russian SAM's proliferating there) as well as Iran - the inevitable strike that's coming. Unlike the previous strikes on Baghdad, the F-35 won't require any top cover from F-15's. It can fight its way in and out.

And as a point defense interceptor, I have to believe that's where their interest in the F-35B resides. Shorter on range and lacking the heavy hitting 2,000lb JDAM internal carriage, it nonetheless can be loaded up with AMRAAM's and I'd imagine the Python 4 or whatever iteration they're up to. Even if their airfields get hit in a surprise attack, it'll guarantee defensive counter air still takes place.