6 RAAF Supers to Growlers (Fewer F-35s?)

Here is wot AVM Criss had to say back in 2006...

AVM Criss: Does Groupthink Power Australia’s JSF? Nov 01, 2006 by Defense Industry Daily staff

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/avm ... jsf-02759/

"...As for the JSF decision, one can only hope that a return to the formal acquisition process will still happen, where all credible options can be evaluated in a rigorous, analytical, impartial and transparent manner.

At present I am observing a Defence organisation that has illusions of invulnerability, one that is suffering from collective rationalisation, a self-determined morality that quickly reverts to denial if challenged, and where serving members are subjected to an over-imposed requirement for conformity. In this context “self-censorship is prevalent, leading to a false appearance of unanimity, all being supervised by mindguards.” These are not my words, Professor Janis (1973) warned of such systemic organisational failings 33 years ago it is termed ‘groupthink’.

For the sake of our future generations, these behavioural traits must be excised.

Air Vice-Marshal Peter Criss, AM, AFC, (Retd) joined the RAAF in 1968 and flew over 5000 hours in Sabre, Mirage and F-111 aircraft. At the tactical level he was both a squadron and wing commander. At the operational level he was Air Commander Australia in 1999 and early 2000 during the successful East Timor operation. Before involuntary redundancy in late 2001 he headed a study for CDF into the management of preparedness in the ADF."

Last paragraphs excerpted above only so best JUMP to the URL for it all.
_____________

There is an unusual (to me anyway) PDF print function wot I tried out so here is result: http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/avm ... jsf-02759/

DejaVu AllOverAgain...

Australia says will make a decision on Super Hornet purchase by mid-year 26 Feb 2013 (Reporting By Jane Wardell; Editing by Paul Tait)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/02/2 ... 2F20130226

"(Reuters) - Australia will decide whether to buy 24 more Boeing Co (BA.N) F/A-18 Super Hornets by the middle of this year, Defence Minister Stephen Smith said on Tuesday, amid setbacks to Lockheed Martin's Corp's (LMT.N) F-35 warplane.

Australia, a close U.S. ally, has requested information under its foreign military sales agreement with the United States for the potential purchase of the extra Super Hornets, which would double its fleet of the aircraft.

"No decision has been made, no judgment has been made," Smith told reporters at the opening of the Australian International Airshow in southern Victoria state.

"We'll make that decision in the course of this year, I expect by the middle of this year," he said. "But one thing I won't allow to occur is a gap in our air combat capability."...

...Smith said Australia is committed to the purchase of an initial two F-35s, but the timing of options for a further 12 and an initial plan to buy a total of 100 remains unclear.

Smith noted the Australian government's decision last year to purchase [repurpose 12 Supers already in service to] 12 EA-18G Growlers with radar-jamming electronic weapons that are compatible with the Super Hornet.

"Just as the United States is now effectively operating on a mixed fleet to 2030/35 of Super Hornets, Growlers and F-35s, that potential is there for Australia as well," he said."

Don't bother.

Australia Begins Super Hornet Study As F-35 Slide Continues
Guy Norris / AvWeek / 25Feb2013

"Amid continuing uncertainty over delays to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the Australian government has opened up a long-anticipated study with the U.S. into the “potential purchase” of 24 additional Boeing F/A-18E/F aircraft.

Although the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) remains officially committed to the Lockheed Martin F-35, the Australian government plans to consider doubling the size of the Super Hornet fleet, signaled in a letter of request to the U.S. government. This is expected to raise fresh questions over Australia’s level of commitment to the F-35 and the final number of aircraft it will acquire.

Confirming the request in comments made to the Australian Broadcasting Corp., Defense Minister Stephen Smith says, “We placed a letter of request [LOR] with the United States authorities to enable us to investigate the potential purchase of up to 24 more Super Hornets.” Smith adds the F-35 “has been subject to very serious scheduling delays and that’s what’s causing us to risk a gap in capability…. We’re now looking not just to the Super Hornets [covering a] gap in capability, but whether into the longer term it makes sense for Australia to have a mixed fleet — a mixed fleet of Super Hornets, Growlers and Joint Strike Fighters, which is what you essentially see the United States Navy… embarking upon.”"

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.asp ... 552782.xml

Of course we don't know what is included in the $4B reference (likely more than simply the F/A-18E/F WSC,) but in any event 24 Supers will cost less to acquire and operate than 24 F-35As.

Really? Show us the numbers.

"The Super Hornet currently sells for about $55 million US apiece; the Pentagon expects the F-35 to cost twice as much — about $110 million. But only 20 per cent of the cost of owning a fighter fleet is the actual sticker price of the planes. Eighty per cent is the operating cost — what it takes to keep them flying. That means everything from pilots and fuel to maintenance and spares.

Psst! Wanna save $23B?
And that's where the difference between the F-35 and the Super Hornet rockets into the stratosphere.

"The current actual costs to operate a Super Hornet are less than half the cost that the F-35 is projected to be once it's in operation, just to operate," says Mike Gibbons, vice-president in charge of the Super Hornet program.

Less than half? But how can he know that, since the F-35s are not yet in service?

Gibbons is ready for the question. "No one knows actually how costly that jet will actually be, once it's in operation. We do know how affordable the Super Hornet is currently because we have actual costs." The Super Hornet costs about $16,000 an hour to fly, he says — and the F-35 will be double that.

Really? That sounded too good to be true — so CBC News dug into Boeing's figures to see how credible they are.

According to the GAO, the Super Hornet actually costs the U.S. Navy $15,346 an hour to fly. It sounds like a lot — until you see that the U.S. Air Force's official "target" for operating the F-35 is $31,900 an hour. The GAO says it's a little more — closer to $32,500.

CBC also asked Lockheed Martin to say if it had any quarrel with these numbers — and it did not."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2 ... ewski.html

@maus92: Do you know which GAO report they used? The $15,346 is closer to the figures I'd heard,but the Comptroller says $10,584 for a F/A-18F model, presumably with two crew That same report claims a F-22 CPFH of $21,860, even though the figure is higher than that by about 50%. I suspect that Comptroller O&M budget doesn't cover depot visits or something like that.

Here is the FY2013 rates http://comptroller.defense.gov/rates/fy ... 13_f_h.pdf

Note: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d10717.pdf gives the $15,346 as the CPFH and reports the breakdown of the cost components.

@maus92: Do you know which GAO report they used?

Sorry, I do not. Sadly, news articles rarely footnote sources. Would make it easier to factcheck.

Of course we don't know what is included in the $4B reference (likely more than simply the F/A-18E/F WSC,) but in any event 24 Supers will cost less to acquire and operate than 24 F-35As.

Really? Show us the numbers.

"The Super Hornet currently sells for about $55 million US apiece; the Pentagon expects the F-35 to cost twice as much — about $110 million. But only 20 per cent of the cost of owning a fighter fleet is the actual sticker price of the planes. Eighty per cent is the operating cost — what it takes to keep them flying. That means everything from pilots and fuel to maintenance and spares.

Psst! Wanna save $23B?
And that's where the difference between the F-35 and the Super Hornet rockets into the stratosphere.

"The current actual costs to operate a Super Hornet are less than half the cost that the F-35 is projected to be once it's in operation, just to operate," says Mike Gibbons, vice-president in charge of the Super Hornet program.

Less than half? But how can he know that, since the F-35s are not yet in service?

Gibbons is ready for the question. "No one knows actually how costly that jet will actually be, once it's in operation. We do know how affordable the Super Hornet is currently because we have actual costs." The Super Hornet costs about $16,000 an hour to fly, he says — and the F-35 will be double that.

Really? That sounded too good to be true — so CBC News dug into Boeing's figures to see how credible they are.

According to the GAO, the Super Hornet actually costs the U.S. Navy $15,346 an hour to fly. It sounds like a lot — until you see that the U.S. Air Force's official "target" for operating the F-35 is $31,900 an hour. The GAO says it's a little more — closer to $32,500.

CBC also asked Lockheed Martin to say if it had any quarrel with these numbers — and it did not."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2 ... ewski.html

Wow, Canadian news media -- there's a credible source.

Apparently a CPFH 'study' has been making its way around 'the building' for about a year that -- shock of all shocks -- features a 15K v 31K number. No one in uniform (ie flag) would attach his or her name to it as an originating sponsor because it wasn't just 'not credible' -- it was specious. Among other things, it conspicuously ignored the 900 lb gorilla sitting in the corner -- grossly unaccounted for USG overhead costs.

So, failing to get USG advocacy, the CPFH claim miraculously finds its way into the Canadian press accompanied by an unsubstantiated claim that it came from that font of all truth -- the GAO.

And, lo and behold, it shows up here. More shock...

GAO

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ac/d ... 323-cr.htm

1 over-used engine blade = entire fleet grounded. It may not be the last issue and no guarantee that such issues won't crop up after LRIP. Would it be a good idea to maintain 2 types of fighters to avoid entire fleet grounding risks? Might be.

Pentagon approves Super Hornets for Australia 28 Feb 2013 By Jim Gallagher

http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... f7150.html

"The Pentagon on Thursday notified Congress of plans to sell 12 Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters and 12 EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets to Australia.

The deal would be worth $3.7 billion, and comes as a boost to Boeing's efforts to expand its foreign military sales in light of an expected decline in Pentagon spending.

Pentagon approval does not mean that Australia will place a final order for the planes, which are built in the St. Louis County. That decision is expected at mid-year [2013]...."

Where the money goes...

Transmittal No. 13-05
Australia – F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler Aircraft 28 Feb 2013

http://www.dsca.mil/PressReleases/36-b/ ... _13-05.pdf (60Kb)

"WASHINGTON, February 28, 2013 – The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress Feb. 27 of a possible Foreign Military Sale to Australia for up to 12 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet aircraft and 12 EA-18G Growler aircraft and associated equipment, parts, training and logistical support for an estimated cost of $3.7 billion.

The Government of Australia has requested a possible sale of up to 12 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet aircraft, 12 EA-18G Growler aircraft, 54 F414-GE-402 engines (48 installed and 6 spares) 2 engine inlet devices, 35 AN/APG-79 Radar Systems, 70 AN/USQ-140 Multifunctional Informational Distribution System Low Volume Terminals (MIDS-LVT) or RT-1957(C)/USQ-190(V) Joint Tactical Radio Systems, 40 AN/ALQ-214 Integrated Countermeasures Systems, 24 AN/ALR-67(V)3 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures Receiving Sets, 72 LAU-127 Guided Missile Launchers, 15 M61A2 Vulcan Cannons, 32 AN/AVS-9 Night Vision Goggles or Night Vision Cueing Device System, 40 AN/APX-111 Combined Interrogator Transponders, 80 AN/ARC-210/RT-1990A(C) Communication Systems, 100 Digital Management Devices with KG-60’s, 36 Accurate Navigation Systems, 30 AN/AYK-29(V) Distributed Targeting Systems (DTS), 4 AN/PYQ-21 DTS Mission Planning Transit Cases, 24 AN/ASQ-228 Advance Targeting Forward Looking Infrared (ATFLIR) Pods, 40 AN/PYQ-10 Simple Key Loaders (SKL), 80 KIV-78 Mode 4/5 Module, 48 COMSEC Management Workstations (CMWS), 24 AN/ALE-47 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures Systems, 80 Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS), and 400 AN/ALE-55 Fiber Optic Towed Decoys. Also included are system integration and testing, tools and test equipment, support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical documents, personnel training and training equipment, aircraft ferry and refueling support, U.S. Government and contractor technical assistance, and other related elements of logistics and program support. The estimated cost is $3.7 billion...."

1 over-used engine blade = entire fleet grounded. It may not be the last issue and no guarantee that such issues won't crop up after LRIP. Would it be a good idea to maintain 2 types of fighters to avoid entire fleet grounding risks? Might be.

True. When the F-15Cs got grounded, that put a major shortfall in the NORAD air patrols. The Canadian CF-18s helped patrol certain parts of US Airspace.

The F404 engines have shown signs of fatigue related failures at various times, but the F/A-18E/F/G aircraft with F414s have been relatively trouble free, with only a few engine related mishaps. Eating too much seagull doesn't count.

@Spazsinbad: $3.7Bn is a good price for 12 F/A-18Fs and 12 EA-18Gs with all the related equipment and pods included.

"Also included are system integration and testing, tools and test equipment, support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical documents, personnel training and training equipment, aircraft ferry and refueling support, U.S. Government and contractor technical assistance, and other related elements of logistics and program support. "

A lot of money tied in this vague paragraph. What is this refueling support? Delivery or operational?

Interesting that they are buying 12 Growlers - does this mean the Australians are not going to convert some of their -Fs, or are they adding 12 more to the fleet? And the request is not specifying only -Fs, so are they going to purchase -Es?

How many Super Hornets are in a typical Australian squadron?

The Australian way of buying stuff is vague eh. One day we will get it right for the satisfaction of the number wonders. As for the new build 12 Growlers I would suggest that will leave the distinct possibility that in the future 12+12 Growlers will fly on with the F-35As whilst the 12+12 Supers will be sold back to USN or another authorised buyer. Perhaps six of these will be retained as 'trainers'. Dunno. As for purchasing Es? I guess this will be clear in June WHEN & IF any are bought.

Where the money goes...

Transmittal No. 13-05
Australia – F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler Aircraft 28 Feb 2013

http://www.dsca.mil/PressReleases/36-b/ ... _13-05.pdf (60Kb)

"WASHINGTON, February 28, 2013 – The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress Feb. 27 of a possible Foreign Military Sale to Australia for up to 12 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet aircraft and 12 EA-18G Growler aircraft and associated equipment, parts, training and logistical support for an estimated cost of $3.7 billion.

The Government of Australia has requested a possible sale of up to 12 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet aircraft, 12 EA-18G Growler aircraft, 54 F414-GE-402 engines (48 installed and 6 spares) 2 engine inlet devices, 35 AN/APG-79 Radar Systems, 70 AN/USQ-140 Multifunctional Informational Distribution System Low Volume Terminals (MIDS-LVT) or RT-1957(C)/USQ-190(V) Joint Tactical Radio Systems, 40 AN/ALQ-214 Integrated Countermeasures Systems, 24 AN/ALR-67(V)3 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures Receiving Sets, 72 LAU-127 Guided Missile Launchers, 15 M61A2 Vulcan Cannons, 32 AN/AVS-9 Night Vision Goggles or Night Vision Cueing Device System, 40 AN/APX-111 Combined Interrogator Transponders, 80 AN/ARC-210/RT-1990A(C) Communication Systems, 100 Digital Management Devices with KG-60’s, 36 Accurate Navigation Systems, 30 AN/AYK-29(V) Distributed Targeting Systems (DTS), 4 AN/PYQ-21 DTS Mission Planning Transit Cases, 24 AN/ASQ-228 Advance Targeting Forward Looking Infrared (ATFLIR) Pods, 40 AN/PYQ-10 Simple Key Loaders (SKL), 80 KIV-78 Mode 4/5 Module, 48 COMSEC Management Workstations (CMWS), 24 AN/ALE-47 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures Systems, 80 Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS), and 400 AN/ALE-55 Fiber Optic Towed Decoys. Also included are system integration and testing, tools and test equipment, support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical documents, personnel training and training equipment, aircraft ferry and refueling support, U.S. Government and contractor technical assistance, and other related elements of logistics and program support. The estimated cost is $3.7 billion...."

All of which are part of what we would call here in the states either an APUC, or if it included some other things not clear in the paragraph, a PAUC. Both are 'unit' costs that F-35 critics like to toss around as evidence of 'excessive' costs. Apparently not so excessive when used in reference to SH it seems. Even if the 3.7B is a PAUC-like number, that is ~155M/jet for a mature weapon system already in Oz service.