optimist wrote:I don't know why it's so hard to accept that ADF will not buy a f-35b to put on the 2 existing 2 LHDs.
Please don't get me wrong but while I agree with many of your posts in this forum, I must disagree with you on this point.
Anyway, I believe it is clear that the reason "why it's so hard to accept that ADF will not buy a f-35b to put on the 2 existing 2 LHDs" is the following:
-
Resources, or to be more precise the lack of it (resources) which makes the option of putting the "F-35Bs on the current two LHDs" the only possible option for Australia if it wants to pursue something akin to a "fixed-wing carrier capability".
IMO, I would say that I don't know why it's so hard to accept that Australia won't have necessary
resources (includes money for acquisition and maintenance of the equipment, human resources to man and maintain the equipment, etc...) and I already posted the reason why I believe in this, so I won't repeat myself again in this regard.
Again, I would say that the only possibility for the Australians to have something that resembles a carrier or carrier capability would be exactly to buy F-35Bs and put them on the two (2) existing LHDs (so my opinion is exactly the opposite of yours in this regard) since it would be the option that requires less resources and this not only in terms of money (to adquire, modify and maintain equipment) but also and above all it's the option that requires by far less human resources - note that the Australian Navy is already having a hard time to crew/man its existing ships/fleet let alone to man an extra carrier or even worse, a couple of extra carriers.
You could argue that Australia would prefer not having a carrier capability at all than adapting its current LHDs to operate with F-35Bs and you could probably be right.
However the probability of Australia buying an extra carrier, let alone two extra carriers are much, much lower than the previous two options (equipping the 2 current LHDs with F-35Bs or not having F-35Bs at all).
I would speculate that:
- Probability for Australia not buying any F-35Bs and thus continuing to have no carrier capability whatsoever -> 69% (not so sexy option, I admit
)
- Probability for Australia buying the F-35B and adapting the current 2 Canberra-class LHD to operate the F-35B -> 25%
- Probability for Australia buying the F-35B and buying a "3rd ship/carrier" to operate the F-35B -> 5%
- Probability for Australia buying the F-35B and buying two (2) carriers to operate the F-35B -> 1%
But again this is only my speculation and my 2 cents, of course...