US is considering F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia

[disconnectedradical]

An export I’m quite uneasy with.

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he is considering agreeing to a deal to supply Saudi Arabia with F-35 stealth fighter jets, which are made by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab.

"They wanna buy a lot of jets," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. "I'm looking at that. They've asked me to look at it. They want to buy a lot of '35' - but they want to buy actually more than that, fighter jets."

The potential sale comes as Trump plans to host Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House next week, when they are expected to sign economic and defense agreements.

Asked about the talks, Trump told reporters it was "more than meeting, we're honoring" Saudi Arabia.

He repeated that he hoped Saudi would soon join the Abraham Accords, which have normalized relations between Israel and Muslim-majority nations. Riyadh has resisted such a step absent agreement on a roadmap to Palestinian statehood.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-lik ... 025-11-14/

One reason that it can be risky:

WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - A Pentagon intelligence report raises concerns over Saudi Arabia's bid to buy F-35 jets from the United States, warning that China could acquire the aircraft's technology if the sale proceeds, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the assessment.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 025-11-13/

[daswp]

I do not want to see Saudi Arabia getting F-35's.

Huge mistake.

This is another case of Trump thinking like a businessman and not a politician.

[Lieven]

Seem like someone is prioritizing short-term optics over strategic consistency...

And alarms have been raised before about Saudi Arabia’s deepening military ties with China. A Pentagon assessment warned that sensitive F-35 technology could be at risk if transferred to a country that has collaborated with Beijing on ballistic missile development and surveillance infrastructure.

[krieger22]

Seem like someone is prioritizing short-term optics over strategic consistency...

And alarms have been raised before about Saudi Arabia’s deepening military ties with China. A Pentagon assessment warned that sensitive F-35 technology could be at risk if transferred to a country that has collaborated with Beijing on ballistic missile development and surveillance infrastructure.

The same concerns were raised about an attempted sale to the Emiratis during the first Trump admin, and only a timeout via losing the 2020 elections ended that push

Anyway:

https://apnews.com/article/trump-saudi- ... cd4808648a

“I will say that that we will be doing that,” Trump said when asked if he would sell the jets to Saudi Arabia. “We’ll be selling F-35s.”

The crown prince, who is set to make a White House visit Tuesday, had been expected to arrive with a wish list that includes receiving formal assurances from Trump defining the scope of the U.S. military protection for the kingdom and an agreement to buy U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, one of the world’s most advanced aircraft.

[commisar]

For everyone here concerned about the Saudis letting the Chinese have a look at the F-35.... The UAE would do the same and I'd be looking askance at the Israelis too....

[disconnectedradical]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 025-11-19/

US F-35 jets to be sold to Saudi Arabia to lack Israel's advanced features

WASHINGTON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The F-35 fighter jets the U.S. plans to sell Saudi Arabia will be less advanced than those operated by Israel, in line with a U.S. law that guarantees Israel’s military edge in the region, U.S. officials and defense experts said on Wednesday.

President Donald Trump announced the sale this week, but officials said the Saudi aircraft will lack superior features of Israel’s fleet that include advanced weapons systems and electronic warfare equipment.
…
Still, the Israeli Air Force opposed the planned sale, warning in a position paper to political leaders that it would undermine Israel's air superiority in the region, The Times of Israel reported on Tuesday.

So likely the potential Saudi F-35s will all be TR-2/Block 3 aircraft, perhaps second hand from USAF. However most Israeli F-35s are also of that baseline, and TR-3/Block 4 retrofit may have quite a backlog, hence Israeli opposition to the sale.

[Corsair1963]

So likely the potential Saudi F-35s will all be TR-2/Block 3 aircraft, perhaps second hand from USAF. However most Israeli F-35s are also of that baseline, and TR-3/Block 4 retrofit may have quite a backlog, hence Israeli opposition to the sale.

The Saudi F-35s coming off the production line will look just like any other F-35. It just won't have similar upgrades like the Israeli F-35I's.

My guess like most is Israel will just be offered the F-47 once they become available. So, they can maintain Air Superiority over their neighbors within the Middle East.

For everyone here concerned about the Saudis letting the Chinese have a look at the F-35.... The UAE would do the same and I'd be looking askance at the Israelis too....

The Saudis have purchased some of the best US Military Hardware available on the market and for many decades now and with no problems.

Nor would it be in their interest to break that trusted relationship. In fact, it would be very counter-productive to their own interests!

[ricnunes]

The Saudis have purchased some of the best US Military Hardware available on the market and for many decades now and with no problems.

Nor would it be in their interest to break that trusted relationship. In fact, it would be very counter-productive to their own interests!

While I don't agree and I also see with many reservations a F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia, the fact is that like Corsair1963 said, the Saudis have indeed purchased some of the best US Military Hardware available on the market in the past. As such, selling F-35s to Saudi Arabia wouldn't be something without precedence. As an example, the Saudis requested (at the time) the cutting edge F-15C and received the first of them in 1981 which was arguably (and even not arguably) the most advanced air superiority fighter aircraft of that time.

[ianh]

There's some serious "realpolitik" involved here where the US really is trying to tightrope walk between keeping the Israelis happy, but also keeping SA as a regional threat to Iran (and by proxy, Yemen), and I'm not sure that, with Iran's IADS shot to pieces, and no new advanced aircraft being supplied to the IRIAF on the horizon, I don't think the RSAF actually "needs" the F-35 for anything more than bragging rights, which is a genuinely powerful thing in the ME.

I spent four years in Saudi teaching aircraft maintenance and, whilst aircrew are seen as an almost romanticised "new age calvary" and are fawned over by everyone in the nation, the maintenance side is seen as dirty, nasty work not worthy of a "High Wasta" (social power, massively more important than anything else) Saudi person and is therefore nothing something to be prideful over. This led to the drive for third party nationals from Indian, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Philippines etc to do that "dirty" work, and where it can't be done by those, it drops to those from the "lowest" tribes (lowest Wasta) in Saudi culture who get no end of crap from everyone from a better tribe so they're constantly "bullied" (for a western term) meaning they don't care about anything they do - yes that stuff still happens in modern day SA and other ME countries.

As an example, in my workplace, a team of about 25 trainers must have trained about 200+ maintainers over my 4 years (each trainer gets 4 people and takes about 2 years to train them from day 1 on the A/C to being able to work on a SQN without a trainer at their side), and in that time I'd suggest that maybe............maybe...........five at most could have worked at a "western" countries Air Force without much retraining i.e. equivalent to our basic trainees, where as all the rest literally couldn't care about not being able to the basics, and I'm talking lefty loosey righty tighty levels of poor hand skills, zero fault diagnosis ability, inability to follow a tech manual/job guide etc. I'd love to say that our small team was the exception, and that other teams (even those from different companies) had way more success, but nope, every trainer I spoke to pretty much had the same stories and roughly the same figures. Its a cultural thing which'll never change - its pretty much universally accepted that buying flashy "new" things is seen as better by those in charge than fixing old broken things which is dirty nasty work - thats just the way their culture works.

[ricnunes]

That's a very interesting information and story there, ianh! Thanks for sharing

I wasn't aware that things were that "nasty" (or weird, or whatever...) in Saudi Arabia (and other ME nearby countries).

And yes, I agree that there's no need to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia. For instance their F-15SA's should be more than enough for their needs. This, unless they have the need of carrying out deep strikes inside Iran but like you said, Iran's air defences were and have been seriously degraded after Operation Rising Lion.

[tplasl]

On a fundamental level, there isn't much to worry about in terms of whether or not Saudi can be trusted with the F-35. The entire country is practically unable to wage a real fight, neither is it wishing to do so, neither are they planning on changing that fact.

US foreign policy on the issue of "supporting democracies" ended up failing disastrously and the current Trump policy is to simply sell to those who want to buy. FMS's of D-3 AMRAAMs have been greenlit for second tier allies like PAK as the aim 260 is about to reach the USAF with the IAF soon following. Air superiority won't be lost.

On a fundamental level, the gulf Arab states will not be the ones capable of fighting a war the F-35 is designed for, something which will never put to the test the question on if POTUS's decision was correct.

[hornetfinn]

On a fundamental level, there isn't much to worry about in terms of whether or not Saudi can be trusted with the F-35. The entire country is practically unable to wage a real fight, neither is it wishing to do so, neither are they planning on changing that fact.

I would not go that far that they are unable to wage a real fight. They did fight and fought quite well in Desert Storm. They did over 1,600 ground attack sorties against Iraqi targets and troops with their Tornado GR.1 and F-5s and provided good number of AWACS, tanker and airlift sorties.

Of course they are not USAF or IAF in overall capabilities but compared to other countries in the region (excluding Israel), they are very capable. Their equipment is top notch and personnel training level is difficult to judge really. However their F-15s have shot down several Houthi UAVs and have struck Houthi ground targets numerous times in Yemen and ISIS targets in Syria. So they have decent amount of combat experience.

I have to say that Saudi Arabia has got some of the most advanced Western weapon systems since the 1970s. While I'm not sure they should or even need to get F-35s, they already have almost everything else.

[ianh]

I'd definitely agree that they can wage a "reasonable" air war against a much weaker nation, but their Navy is almost non-existent and their Army (except for the Tankers - again, very high wasta with visions of re-imagined cavalry charges etc) are filled with very, very low skilled, low morale, low esprit de corps, troops, especially in the "dirty" areas like infantry, artillery etc plus, as usual, they have low maintenance levels/training etc as the years of constant border battles with Yemen has proven time and time again, aka getting the poop kicked out of them so much they had to hire child soldiers from Sudan to fight for them! (story here - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... d-soldiers)

The exception is the lightly armed SA NG which do royal protection & anti-coup type stuff with some very good training and the roles hold better prestige so they attracts better people from the best tribes.

[tplasl]

On a fundamental level, there isn't much to worry about in terms of whether or not Saudi can be trusted with the F-35. The entire country is practically unable to wage a real fight, neither is it wishing to do so, neither are they planning on changing that fact.

I would not go that far that they are unable to wage a real fight. They did fight and fought quite well in Desert Storm. They did over 1,600 ground attack sorties against Iraqi targets and troops with their Tornado GR.1 and F-5s and provided good number of AWACS, tanker and airlift sorties.

Of course they are not USAF or IAF in overall capabilities but compared to other countries in the region (excluding Israel), they are very capable. Their equipment is top notch and personnel training level is difficult to judge really. However their F-15s have shot down several Houthi UAVs and have struck Houthi ground targets numerous times in Yemen and ISIS targets in Syria. So they have decent amount of combat experience.

I have to say that Saudi Arabia has got some of the most advanced Western weapon systems since the 1970s. While I'm not sure they should or even need to get F-35s, they already have almost everything else.

I have heard some pretty disastrous stories coming from British and American veterans of DS, particularly Saudi Tornado's jettisoning their anti runway cluster munitions on the border with Iraq and as i think someone else might've pointed out, maintenance work and personnel being disastrous.
The planes still run somewhat well, but besides that, we can also recognize its not 1979 anymore, Saudi Arabia is effectively purchasing the right to use these fighters for their airframe lifetime, in terms of what is necessary in terms of military development of both hardware and software to progress in the 21st century, America has made it clear to everyone except the Israelis that the F-35 wasn't going to be enabling such needs.

But when I talked of the aspect that POTUS's decision to sell F-35s was going to put to the test, I was highlighting the fact that economically and structurally, the Gulf has made no visible desire or attempt for self sufficiency. I.e, Saudi Arabia won't be able to, do not desire to, and do not to wish to change the fact that they will only be using them among other military assets that the larger west and specifically the United States and Israel would be in agreement with them against. Namely, Iran. Ofcourse there is always the chance of the unexpected, but on a practical level, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself not to fight a war the United States would'nt support them in, directly or indirectly.