India and the F-35?

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hythelday

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Unread post23 Apr 2018, 18:19

mixelflick wrote:...

Let's be honest though: The Indian withdrawal is a big blow to the program. 5th gen tech takes big $, and they're hurting economically. They also (supposedly) are developing a Mach 4, Mig-31 follow on, a VSTOL fighter, updated TU-160's, PAK DA stealthy bomber etc.. That's going to take whole lotta' rubles, and the PAK FA is a money pit already, showing no signs it'll be getting cheaper anytime soon...


You just listed a whole bunch of projects that'll get thrown under a bus in a second in order to concentrate efforts on PAK FA. PAK DA already became an updated Tu-160. Russian VSTOL is a mystical creature that serves no purpose for the Russians themselves and has close to zero export markets. If only there was time they were serious about that one was when oil was 120$/barrel. Remember when Rogozin promised Russian moon base by 2020? He's a funny guy, look him up. Much like Chemical Ali, but only more obese. MiG-31 follow on will probably become a MiG-31M with a hypersonic missile. Apparently Russians are making decent progress on those.
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marsavian

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Unread post23 Apr 2018, 19:17

Once they have a definite production model a certain number of Su-57 will be turned out every year like the everlasting Super Hornet and for similar reasons, to keep Sukhoi's factories humming. Planned production shifted to Su-35 as the Su-57 keeps getting delayed but will shift back again once development is finally done. This is why the Mig-35 is being bought by the Russians themselves as well as being exported, to keep Mikoyan factories busy.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 06:42

weasel1962 wrote:Russia will not buy the J-31. Can't really remember the last time Russia actually had non-Russian planes (other than UAVs) in inventory. WW2?

The only thing holding back full production of the Su-57 is the new engine. I think its a matter of time. What "numbers" of Su-57 will be produced by Russia right now is a waste of time arguing. They've built 14 prototypes with 11 flying and 12 more in LRIP. That's not the kind of numbers that suggest under 200 in terms of overall program. Having said that, the F-22 stopped at 195 including test units from 650 planned in the beginning so yes, no plan is ever cast in stone.

Its good to set the context of what realistically the "numbers" entail, by looking at the state of RuAF. Mig-31, they've built over 200 with 100+ in service. Both Mig-29 and Su-27 series, they've got ~400+ each in service. Numbers produced in Russian context will go no where near China.


Sorry, Russia isn't the Great Power of the Cold War Era anymore. As a matter of fact her economy is closer to Australia or Canada in GDP. So, don't expect Russia to be able to keep up with the US or China in the coming years. Hell, at the current rate India is going to blow rate by her too!

In my opinion Russia made a "COLOSSAL MISTAKE"! :doh: When she decided to develop the PAK-FA (Su-57) over the far more exportable Liogkiy Mnogofunktsionalniy Frontovoi Samolyet (LMFS). This poor decision is giving China the future non-Western Fighter Market! My guess is China will slowly overtake Russia as the leading non-Western Arms Exporter. That is just a reality that Russian Supporters are going to have to learn to live with. Yet, if you want to place blame the responsible person his named "Putin". :shock:


Oh, and as long as I am making predictions. Don't be surprised in the coming years when Russia starts to buy Chinese Military Hardware. (remember you heard it her first) :wink:
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 06:47

marsavian wrote:Once they have a definite production model a certain number of Su-57 will be turned out every year like the everlasting Super Hornet and for similar reasons, to keep Sukhoi's factories humming. Planned production shifted to Su-35 as the Su-57 keeps getting delayed but will shift back again once development is finally done. This is why the Mig-35 is being bought by the Russians themselves as well as being exported, to keep Mikoyan factories busy.




:lmao:

Sorry, even Russian Sources have admitted the cost of the PAK-FA/Su-57 was over $100 Million. Plus, that was when India and Russia was going to build over 500 examples. So, considering the current budget realities in the country today. Your dreaming if you think Russia is going to spit out Su-57 in anything remotely close to the Super Hornet.


Honestly, you may want to cut back on the Medication. As it will lead you to your undoing! :?


Respectfully.... 8)
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 06:59

hythelday wrote:
mixelflick wrote:...

Let's be honest though: The Indian withdrawal is a big blow to the program. 5th gen tech takes big $, and they're hurting economically. They also (supposedly) are developing a Mach 4, Mig-31 follow on, a VSTOL fighter, updated TU-160's, PAK DA stealthy bomber etc.. That's going to take whole lotta' rubles, and the PAK FA is a money pit already, showing no signs it'll be getting cheaper anytime soon...


You just listed a whole bunch of projects that'll get thrown under a bus in a second in order to concentrate efforts on PAK FA. PAK DA already became an updated Tu-160. Russian VSTOL is a mystical creature that serves no purpose for the Russians themselves and has close to zero export markets. If only there was time they were serious about that one was when oil was 120$/barrel. Remember when Rogozin promised Russian moon base by 2020? He's a funny guy, look him up. Much like Chemical Ali, but only more obese. MiG-31 follow on will probably become a MiG-31M with a hypersonic missile. Apparently Russians are making decent progress on those.


Let's not forget the Fleet of Aircraft Carriers and Nuclear Powered Destroyers! Honestly, some just don't want to face reality???


Hell, Russia hasn't built a single major Surface Combatant (i.e. Destroyer or larger) since before the collapse of the former Soviet Union. (i.e. USSR) As a matter of fact her Military is made up mainly older or upgraded Soviet Era Equipment. Those are the cold hard facts. If, some care to believe it or not.... :|
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 07:01

31275703_1983973078598665_1323218778959380480_n.jpg




Credit: Oliver Chaudhry (Facebook)
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marsavian

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 07:04

Your dreaming if you think Russia is going to spit out Su-57 in anything remotely close to the Super Hornet.


You totally missed my point. It's not the total numbers I was referring to but the continuous production run to keep the military industry busy. Old Russian fighters will eventually need replacing and even if you are only producing one or two Su-57 a month it will do the job. Rafale has been in continuous production for decades but how few of them are there ?
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 07:16

marsavian wrote:
Your dreaming if you think Russia is going to spit out Su-57 in anything remotely close to the Super Hornet.


You totally missed my point. It's not the total numbers I was referring to but the continuous production run to keep the military industry busy. Old Russian fighters will eventually need replacing and even if you are only producing one or two Su-57 a month it will do the job. Rafale has been in continuous production for decades but how few of them are there ?



I think your missing the point??? Covering an expanse of over 6.6 million square miles, Russia is the world's largest country by landmass, beating out runner-up Canada by around 2.8 million square miles. It includes nine different time zones and shares land borders with 14 neighboring countries. In addition Russia has thousands of Cold War Era Fighters in need of replacement! (among many other types)

So, do you really think 1-2 Su-57's per month is going to be adequate??? :|

In contrast the US already has nearly 500 Stealth Fighters. (i.e. F-22s and F-35s) In addition China already has the J-20 in series production and the J-31 is said to be close behind. This while India, South Korea, Turkey, and Ukraine develop Stealth Fighters of their own....
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milosh

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 09:16

Corsair1963 wrote:I think your missing the point??? Covering an expanse of over 6.6 million square miles, Russia is the world's largest country by landmass, beating out runner-up Canada by around 2.8 million square miles. It includes nine different time zones and shares land borders with 14 neighboring countries. In addition Russia has thousands of Cold War Era Fighters in need of replacement! (among many other types)

So, do you really think 1-2 Su-57's per month is going to be adequate??? :|


Thousands fighters?!?

Russia have ~250 new fighters and ~500 old fighters. Russian AF plans are to have in 2020s ~700 new fighters. Old will retired:
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2326878.html

New are Su-30/35/57. Su-57 will probable replace MiG-31, it doesn't have max speed but cruise capability is lot better (no need for afterburner).
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weasel1962

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 10:07

milosh wrote:Su-57 will probable replace MiG-31...


I agree but I don't think it will be a one for one replacement. The Soviet Union built 549 Mig-31s between 1976 to 1994 but Russia only now maintains 130+ Mig-31s.

Mathematically, 1-2 a month is 12-24 a year which over a 20 year production period is 240-480 units.
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mixelflick

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 16:07

Corsair1963 wrote:
31275703_1983973078598665_1323218778959380480_n.jpg




Credit: Oliver Chaudhry (Facebook)


OMG, Priceless... :)

Lots of conflicting views here on SU-57's ultimate numbers. I suppose it depends on a lot of things, not the least of which is Russian economy. I think the scenario put forth that made the most sense is low production numbers every month (1-2) just to keep Sukhoi busy. I also agree the SU-57 will likely be used to replace the Mig-31, as the cost of developing a mach 4 plus interceptor (that allegedly flies into and out of outer space, LOL) would be prohibitive.

Also, the point that Russia made a huge mistake insofar as developing a heavy vs. lighter stealth fighter was spot on. Little chance for a 100+ million SU-57 quasi stealth fighter being sold, especially with F-35's rolling off production lines by then at $80 million/copy...
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ricnunes

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Unread post24 Apr 2018, 21:17

@Corsair1963,

Sorry but your post/image needs the following correction:

Image
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post25 Apr 2018, 00:21

mixelflick wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
31275703_1983973078598665_1323218778959380480_n.jpg




Credit: Oliver Chaudhry (Facebook)


OMG, Priceless... :)

Lots of conflicting views here on SU-57's ultimate numbers. I suppose it depends on a lot of things, not the least of which is Russian economy. I think the scenario put forth that made the most sense is low production numbers every month (1-2) just to keep Sukhoi busy. I also agree the SU-57 will likely be used to replace the Mig-31, as the cost of developing a mach 4 plus interceptor (that allegedly flies into and out of outer space, LOL) would be prohibitive.

Also, the point that Russia made a huge mistake insofar as developing a heavy vs. lighter stealth fighter was spot on. Little chance for a 100+ million SU-57 quasi stealth fighter being sold, especially with F-35's rolling off production lines by then at $80 million/copy...


I would add that China will likely exploit Russia's error with the Su-57. By pushing the J-31 on the export market. Which, Russia has no counter too!
:doh: :doh: :doh:
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weasel1962

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Unread post25 Apr 2018, 01:37

Actual buyers may not see it as an "error". Russian engines are notoriously unreliable. Hence if one notes, the fighters that Russia have produced are twin-engined (and would explain why LMFS never took off) i.e. they recognised their own issues.

China was gung-ho enough to go with single engines (J-10 and JF-17s) based on Russian engines. Due to tight media control, we don't really know how many jets have gone down due to unreliable engines but we know there have been a few. What I do notice is that despite having single engined fighters, China continued parallel induction of twin-engined fighters (Suk derivatives, J-20 and FC-31) which would suggest at the least, some de-risking. Much the same way why the Mig-29 never "killed off" the Su-27, I don't see the FC-31 doing the same either.
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Unread post25 Apr 2018, 02:21

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:I think your missing the point??? Covering an expanse of over 6.6 million square miles, Russia is the world's largest country by landmass, beating out runner-up Canada by around 2.8 million square miles. It includes nine different time zones and shares land borders with 14 neighboring countries. In addition Russia has thousands of Cold War Era Fighters in need of replacement! (among many other types)

So, do you really think 1-2 Su-57's per month is going to be adequate??? :|


Thousands fighters?!?

Russia have ~250 new fighters and ~500 old fighters. Russian AF plans are to have in 2020s ~700 new fighters. Old will retired:
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2326878.html

New are Su-30/35/57. Su-57 will probable replace MiG-31, it doesn't have max speed but cruise capability is lot better (no need for afterburner).



First, I have my doubts Russia can afford 200 Su-57's let alone 250. Yet, even ~250 is hardly adequate for the worlds largest nation with boarders from Europe to Asia. Remember, most complained that the 187 F-22's Raptors produced for the USAF was totally inadequate. Of course now that is hardly an issue with the arrival of the F-35. Yet, Russia doesn't have that option. As it could only afford one type of Stealth Fighter. It also decided on a Heavy Fighter aka Su-57. Instead of the far cheaper and far more exportable LMFS. (HUGE MISTAKE)

Plus, this doesn't even touch on the "questionable" performance of the Su-57 either. As vast majority believe it to be inferior to the F-22/F-35. As a matter of fact many are now questioning. If, it is also "inferior" to the Chinese J-20 and forthcoming J-31??? This is supported by the recent news that India was leaving the program. As it didn't meet India's requirements for Stealth, Performance, or Weapons.
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