The Turkey problem

I still believe that Turkey will come around in the end. As she just cannot afford to walk away from the F-35...The real question is how much will it cost them to return???

I think the ship has sailed. I never judged the situation by what equipment the military was buying or what international politics were at play. My decisions/understanding of Turkey is rooted in the departure of Christian missionary friends/communities who fled a country they loved, a place they wished to live the rest of their lives because the spirit of Turkey has been spat upon and crushed, and they have discarded all that Ataturk strove to create from the ashes of the Ottoman empire.

Humpty Dumpty cannot be put back together again. Ataturk is gone and neo-Ottoman children are playing with toy guns like "they are somebody." This will not end well for Turkey. Whether it is the Russians, Arabs, or Western countries(Greece et al), the land is about to be pillaged, and women and children need to flee as they have in Syria. (and in fact Christian, westernized turks, and military personnel already are fleeing)

You are talking about missiles and jets when the Turkish body is sitting on the ground looking at it's own intestines spilled out in its lap. This is not an F-35 problem, and Turkey will never see those jets or any other equipment. Even if they did, the pilots left long ago. They'd just be door stops.

MHO,
BP

suspicions against Turkey from all other JSF/F-35 partners will always be present.

Looked at another way: the partners make money from FMS contracts including the recent, enormous contract for Japan.

That money is now divided amongst fewer partners and partner nations potentially have more work coming to them.

FMS contracts will more than compensate for the quantity loss incurred due to Turkey's departure so per-unit prices
will be on the stable trajectory.

And the big question: is Turkey really still the low-cost manufacturing hub it was billed to be when the project started?

Yes, I agree marauder that the work opportunity that was previously allocated to Turkey will likely end up being 'distributed' to other JSF/F-35 partners and this will probably another reason why a 'Turkish comeback' to the F-35 is and will be unlikely.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see it.

Ergodan's mistake is only now revealing itself to be collosal. He's not going to be able to afford enough Mig-35's/SU-30's/35's to replace all of his dated Phantoms and Vipers 1:1. Not even close. The S-400 still isn't operational, and even when it is it's going to do... what exactly? Israel (or any nation flying F-35's) is going to render that system suspect, if not inoperable given that's what it was designed for.

It's not like China's going to be a much better option either. J-10's or like light fighters may not be as expensive as Flankers, but they won't be cheap either. Nor will they last long vs. F-35's from say, Greece. In fact if Greece plays its cards right they'll emerge with a huge tactical and strategic advantage over the Turks when this is all said and done.

Because Erdogan don't give a F. about military. You guys forget military try to topple and probable kill him. It wasn't CIA which save its head but KGB.

Deep state was supportive to coup because they wanted to replace him with prime minister because prime minister was keen to go in direct war with Asad.

And now you Americans ask why he doesn't listen US anymore???

Okay, that's fair. I can understand too if the F-35 is seen as a leash that would hold Turkey hostage to the will of Washington -- that is, after all, part of its strategic warfighting capability and why it's an amazing weapon. For Turkey, the loss of near term military advantage is a small price to pay for the liberty of preserving national ambitions.

....
Because Erdogan don't give a F. about military. You guys forget military try to topple and probable kill him. It wasn't CIA which save its head but KGB. ... Deep state ... wanted to replace him And now you Americans ask ...

Okay, that's fair. I can understand too if the F-35 is seen as a leash that would hold Turkey hostage to the will of Washington -- For Turkey, the loss of near term military advantage is a small price to pay for the liberty of preserving national ambitions.

Do not confuse Erdogan/Islamic ambitions with Turkey's national ambitions.

This is not complicated.
Erdogan developed islamic maniacal delusions. He wanted/wants to recreate the Ottoman empire. That required he directly destroy the Ataturk dream.
The Ataturk/EU political forces leaned to stemming that path. Whether the US stoked or simply endorsed such thoughts is academic. I strongly suspect Endogan preemptively triggered a fake revolt to stop it before it started. Turkish military coup's do not historically fail.
History shows that the number one threat to Turkey geopolitically is Russia. Odds are Russia will do a "Crimea Job" on them eventually. (KGB saviors? ROFL that's a good one!)
Second most likely is that Arab Islamic forces will disassemble Turkey into ISS/Kurdish/etc. pieces.
Third but not very likely is that Greece and other western states will subjugate a "european sub-state," restoring Ottoman conquest status quo.

None of these ends well for Turkey or Endogan. And there is no way the US is going to do anything but deliberately and slowly disentangle itself from the whole mess. The US is more focused on getting nukes, supply chains, companies, citizens, Christians et al out of Turkey, long before it "never" considers putting F-35's/Patriots in Turkey.

Bottom line for this forum - Turkey and F-35 are heading in opposite directions and will never meet again. (unless Greek F-35's bomb them in a not so hard to imagine future) Ataturk's dream is dead, and Ottoman delusions are evaporating like a mist in the winds, and with dear friends I weep over the whole thing.

MHO, (based on sources that are/were in country)
BP

Ohh dear, It seems that the Turkish airforce is doomed without the west.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... force/amp/


Turkey has hinted, on multiple occasions, that it would look to Russia,” for new fighter jets, said Aaron Stein, the Director of Research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program.

“The Russians have said that there have been preliminary talks for the Su-35, but those talks do not appear to have ever been advanced, nor do they appear to be active at this moment.”


At this rate they will have pissed off every country on earth. Even if they come back to the west they wont get advaned fighters.
I think Greece getting F-35s might cause a rethink.

Ohh dear, It seems that the Turkish airforce is doomed without the west.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... force/amp/


Turkey has hinted, on multiple occasions, that it would look to Russia,” for new fighter jets, said Aaron Stein, the Director of Research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program.

“The Russians have said that there have been preliminary talks for the Su-35, but those talks do not appear to have ever been advanced, nor do they appear to be active at this moment.”


At this rate they will have pissed off every country on earth. Even if they come back to the west they wont get advaned fighters.
I think Greece getting F-35s might cause a rethink.

They can re-think all they want, but they won't be flying anything remotely in the F-35's league. The SU-35 is an immensely capable airframe, but comparatively speaking its avionics etc are achaic in comparison. Greece will have a field day dismantling Turkey's air force, and probably their S-400 sites while they're at it.

They really, really screwed up in sticking to that S-400 deal. Doomed the future of Turkish tactical aviation for decades IMO..

History shows that the number one threat to Turkey geopolitically is Russia. Odds are Russia will do a "Crimea Job" on them eventually. (KGB saviors? ROFL that's a good one!)

In future anything is possible but I wrote about 2016, there are quite strong indications it was Russians warn wanna be sultan about incoming raid on hotel were he was.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2016/07/ ... oup-a54674
https://www.newsweek.com/erdogan-putin-love-485039
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/er ... 80551.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... u-news-ww3

Tensions are heating up. Greece needs F-35s yesterday.
The fact that they dont have them is a long term consequence of the Greek economic crisis years ago.

Reads like a tabloid.

.... there are quite strong indications it was Russians warn wanna be sultan about incoming raid on hotel were he was.

So just to understand, you consider a report from "Iran's official Fars News Agency", denied by all the parties and hinged on an extremely difficult timeline to be "strong indications." As in two of the stories you cite, well this is "at least technically possible"


Okay. I think I'll stick with my sources, however.

MHO,
BP

US to Keep Buying F-35 Parts From Turkey, Despite Purchase Ban
01 Oct 2020 Richard Sisk

"The U.S. will continue to buy parts for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter from Turkey through 2022...

...the Defense Department had to continue buying Turkish-made parts to maintain production, said Ellen Lord, DoD's Under Secretary for Acquisition and Sustainment.

Turkish factories currently make more than 900 parts for the F-35's center fuselage, cockpit display systems and other components, Lord said, adding that a complete cutoff in December as initially planned would result in about $1 billion in replacement costs that would slow down production of the aircraft.

"So we made a decision on a number of parts that it was smarter in terms of taxpayer dollars and warfighter readiness to let those contracts play out in Turkey so that we wouldn't have these huge termination liability costs," Lord told the Senate Armed Services subcommittee on readiness and management support. "So we have a few of the [Turkish-made] products that will go until 2022."

However, "we are well on our way" in eliminating Turkey completely from the F-35 program, "and the bulk of the parts will be out by the end of year," she said....

...Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., questioned whether the continued purchase of parts from Turkey had the potential to allow sensitive information on the F-35's stealthy technology to be passed on to Russia.

"We have worked very, very closely with Turkey" to prevent the possibility of Russia gaining an edge, Lord said, but she declined to give details, and suggested scheduling a closed session for further discussion...."

Source: https://www.military.com/daily-news/202 ... e-ban.html

Sanctioning Turkey over the S-400 would be mandatory in new defense bill
03 Dec 2020 Joe Gould

"WASHINGTON ― The final version of the must-pass annual defense policy bill unveiled Thursday mandates the U.S. president sanction Turkey for its acquisition of the S-400 air missile defense system. Though President Donald Trump has held off sanctioning Turkey for the purchase under the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA, the defense bill would order that five or more sanctions under CAATSA be imposed within 30 days. The duty would fall to the Trump administration unless the bill is signed after next week. Otherwise it would fall to President-elect Joe Biden, who is due to be inaugurated Jan. 20.

NATO [not just 'merica] says the S-400s pose a threat to the military alliance and particularly endanger the technical secrets of the F-35 aircraft.

The language, sought by Democrats and the Republican chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Jim Risch, would determine that Turkey’s $2.5 billion purchase of the S-400 constitutes a “significant transaction” under CAATSA, which offers a range of sanctions against any nation procuring a major defense article from Russia.

The president can lift the sanctions when he can certify that Turkey no longer has an S-400 system. The bill also includes authorization for the U.S. military to use the six F-35 aircraft that had been accepted by Turkey before the country was expelled from the F-35 program over the S-400 purchase....

...“We stepped in for the F-35, you threatened us,” Erdogan told a televised ruling party congress in the eastern city of Malatya. “You said, ‘Send the S-400s back to Russia.’ We are not a tribal state. We are Turkey.”

For months, the U.S. warned Ankara that it risked sanctions under CAATSA if the S-400 system were activated. Trump, however, has held back on implementing the sanctions amid hopes Erdogan will not go ahead with activating the missiles...."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/congress/20 ... ense-bill/

This is a going to make it rather difficult to work closely with the Indian armed forces.