The Turkey problem

[weasel1962]

There are more US airlines planes in Turkey than vice versa. Its not gonna work. Do you think either side wants to escalate to that stage? The rhetoric will tone down...

[marauder2048]

There are more US airlines planes in Turkey than vice versa. Its not gonna work. Do you think either side wants to escalate to that stage? The rhetoric will tone down...

And this is relevant to Turkish Airlines inability to finance their new aircraft orders how?

[weasel1962]

I think you need to reread the thread again. The line of thought is clear or is this going to be one of those I need to repeat multiple times situation.

[marauder2048]

I think you need to reread the thread again. The line of thought is clear or is this going to be one of those I need to repeat multiple times situation.

If it helps you understand why a threat to cancel new orders from an airline that is struggling to finance new orders
due to credit issues isn't a threat at all..then by all means. Lets go through the exercise.

[Corsair1963]

The Turkish Economy in general is in a pretty poor state at the moment. In addition the Truks are trying to develop their own Domestic Defense Industry. Which, they're starting to make some good inroads. Yet, today much of those programs are heavily reliant on Western Components and Technology!

So, what happens with a serious break with the West??? I think the obvious would start with extensive sanctions. These would be followed by cutting off support and spare parts for much of the Turkish Military. Remember, this isn't just a split with Turkey vs US. As many in Europe are even more displeased with Turkey than the US....

Which, means the Turkish Military would fairly quickly come to a slow grind....(no spares) What about programs like the T129 Attack Helicopter, HÜRJET advanced trainer/light attack jet, TF-X Stealth Fighter, and the Anadolu LHD. Which, will have no F-35B's to fly from it's decks. Honestly, need I go on....

[element1loop]

Sucking-up to China to potentially get FC-31 is the obvious move but suspect Russia will get access before them (much more on offer and more likely to have cash). If Russia can't get them I reckon Turkey could forget about getting them before Russia does. Either way Turkey's chronically collapsed currency and implied dwindling national reserves trying to prop it up already precludes Turkey buying big-ticket imports any time soon (like F-35A/B).

Hardly realistic at all. FC-31 is not ready so it is not an option. Besides it would be almost identical to TF-X in dimensions and roles. And then Russia has no interest whatsoever in the plane, why would they try to get it before Turkey?

If their economy was so bad how where they going to buy F-35??

The Turkish economy is that messed, and they didn't buy it, is that 10 year Lira chart too hard to digest?

As for the FC-31 acquisition option, did you really think I was referring to now? ... um, no.

As for Russia considering a Chinese 5th-gen option, the T-50 prototype as it now stand's is hardly an all-aspect VLO design, and they just might sorely lust after one if and when it's available.

[element1loop]

It's not, but Erdogan has higher priorities

Erdogan is a sly fox.

I think you're wrong there W, when you look at what he's actually done I'm just astounded at how stupid it is. I think the man's a klutz, his advisers who do have the understanding are so intimidated they won't want to tell him where he's stuffed it all up.

[element1loop]

Do you think either side wants to escalate to that stage? The rhetoric will tone down...

Don't bet on it, his flunkies had a brawl in the Streets of Washington during a state visit. Rationality optional.

[madrat]

I think you're wrong there W, when you look at what he's actually done I'm just astounded at how stupid it is. I think the man's a klutz, his advisers who do have the understanding are so intimidated they won't want to tell him where he's stuffed it all up.

Or a rebirth of the totalitarian days of disappearing dissenters due to Erdogan borrowing the Russian/Chinese scripts for retaining power. The man is paranoid (if still alive) and is making desperate moves to subjugate his country on false promises of a delusional revival of the Ottoman Empire. He's one recognized caliph and one openly Islamic fundamentalist campaign to invade Europe short. Give him his caliphate and global recognition of his legitimacy and things go south quickly. It's a formula that can only work in that corner of the globe.

[spazsinbad]

Whilst current regime lords over Turkey it seems no solution will be taken unless everyone grovels at the feet of Ego Dan.

A last chance for Turkey? There could still be time to fix the S-400 issue
29 Jul 2019 Hans Binnendijk

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is on the verge of a major diplomatic victory in his efforts to divide the NATO alliance. Delivery of the first elements of the Russian S-400 air defense system to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Washington’s correct decision to halt delivery of F-35 jets bound for Turkey in response may set off a chain of events that could even lead to Turkey’s withdrawal from the NATO alliance. It is not too late to think creatively and reverse the unraveling. The current dispute can easily escalate…. [that is the question - to be or not to be...]

...The fundamental American concern about protecting F-35 technology is sound and is shared by other members of the international F-35 consortium. The basic concerns are threefold. First, if S-400 radars are able to continuously track the stealthy F-35 when both operate near each other in Turkey, Russia may be able to better identify F-35 signatures and reduce its stealth advantage.

Second, the F-35 is a flying computer. If it connects with the computers that operate the S-400, F-35 digital advantages may be compromised. If one country owns both systems, it will be difficult to keep those computers disconnected. Russian technicians assisting with the S-400 would certainly try to gain information on the F-35’s capabilities. And third, if the Turkish S-400s are connected to NATO air defense radars, Russia would have an insider’s view of the intelligence systems designed to defeat it....

...Much of the responsibility for this deadlock rests with Erdogan. He distrusts Washington for harboring Fethullah Gulen, who Erdogan believes orchestrated the 2016 coup attempt against him. He also distrusts his own Air Force and may even see the S-400 as protection against them.…

...Given the stakes, it is worth one more attempt to see if a series of technical arrangements can ameliorate the negative consequences and even turn the tables on Putin. Other European members of the F-35 consortium might be enlisted to convince Turkey to agree. For example:

• Delivery of the F-35s might be delayed until all Russian S-400 technicians leave Turkey. They might be given a year to give the Turks some basic training.
• The deal might be NATO-ized by having multinational NATO crews to operate the S-400.
• The Turkish S-400 could be prohibited from operating whenever their F-35s fly within the S-400 radar range.
• The S-400s could remain disconnected from both the NATO air defense network and the F-35’s computers. This would make the S-400 a much less effective air defense system; but that would be part of the price Erdogan would need to pay.
• The U.S. could seek to further improve the conditions of a Patriot sale to Turkey, giving the Turks a better U.S. option.
• The Turks might agree to allow NATO to exploit the S-400 to better understand its capabilities and liabilities.
• If Turkey could agree to conditions like these, it still might be possible to avoid a termination of the F-35 sale and avoid a major rift within NATO."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/com ... 400-issue/

[Corsair1963]

A last chance for Turkey? There could still be time to fix the S-400 issue
29 Jul 2019 Hans Binnendijk

I can tell you few in the US Congress would support such a compromise......

[southerncross]

A last chance for Turkey? There could still be time to fix the S-400 issue

Standard PR procedure, offer a deal which is unacceptable for Turkey or banned per S-400 contract and then blame the Turkish side for refusing to cooperate.

BTW:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... dogan-says

Turkey May Rethink Boeing Plane Orders, Erdogan Says

https://iz.ru/903567/2019-07-26/rossiia ... 00-i-ms-21

Russia and Turkey discussed the supply of aircraft SSJ 100 and MS-21

[spazsinbad]

A last chance for Turkey? There could still be time to fix the S-400 issue

Standard PR procedure, offer a deal which is unacceptable for Turkey or banned per S-400 contract and then blame the Turkish side for refusing to cooperate....

This is the IDEAS man who has ideas only - there has been NO OFFER OF A DEAL by anyone important/relevant/capable.

"...Hans Binnendijk is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. He managed the F-15 and AWACS sales to Saudi Arabia for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee."

[madrat]

Turkey flying Russian airliners? Oh the horror. Those aren't natural hailstones falling from the sky, there be Cyrillic labels on them.

[southerncross]

Coherent with what the Turkish general said:

Israel reportedly lobbied Washington to drop Turkey from F-35 program

Officials from Jerusalem said to have pressured Washington behind the scenes to exclude Ankara from fighter jet program in bid to preserve military qualitative edge

Israel worked behind the scenes to ensure the United States blocked the sale of its F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey as part of its efforts to preserve its military qualitative edge in the region, Channel 12 reported Wednesday.

Israel in recent months lobbied Washington to drop Ankara from the F-35 program after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went ahead with a purchase of a Russian-made missile defense system that would give Turkey advanced air capabilities.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-re ... 5-program/