The Turkey problem

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element1loop

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Unread post07 Jun 2021, 04:51

Turkey's currency is toast, has been for several years, they can't afford massive imports anymore, thus the language about special deals and soft-loans, i.e. please sell us stuff at cost price, or less, actually, give them to us as aid and we'll pretend to take out a 'loan'. It's why they focus on exports, rather than on imports and want to build their own fighter. They can't afford them any more. The test of an Alliance is would they fight to defend us, and would we fight for them? And why did the Lira slump consistently down to almost no value ever since Erdogan came to power? Could there be a connection?

Washington knows Erdogan could not afford to buy and operate them. The rest of the S400 ruse was maneuvering to get to that mutual position without openly admitting that Turkey is a basket-case that can't afford to import and operate 140 F-35A/B. Yet he promises to 'buy' Patriots if he can have the F-35A he can't afford.

The problem is Erdogan and his circus. Washington, Brussels and NATO hold on to the hope that Erdogan will be deposed, and a secular Turkish mainstream option returns to center-stage.

Not much chance of it but still very worth encouraging as the alternative for the Turkish people, when they finally decide they've had enough of living in a nasty screwed-up pseudo-religious state, used as a means for the corrupt and stupid to live out power-tripping fantasies.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post07 Jun 2021, 05:28

element1loop wrote:Turkey's currency is toast, has been for several years, they can't afford massive imports anymore, thus the language about special deals and soft-loans, i.e. please sell us stuff at cost price, or less, actually, give them to us as aid and we'll pretend to take out a 'loan'. It's why they focus on exports, rather than on imports and want to build their own fighter. They can't afford them any more. The test of an Alliance is would they fight to defend us, and would we fight for them? And why did the Lira slump consistently down to almost no value ever since Erdogan came to power? Could there be a connection?

Washington knows Erdogan could not afford to buy and operate them. The rest of the S400 ruse was maneuvering to get to that mutual position without openly admitting that Turkey is a basket-case that can't afford to import and operate 140 F-35A/B. Yet he promises to 'buy' Patriots if he can have the F-35A he can't afford.

The problem is Erdogan and his circus. Washington, Brussels and NATO hold on to the hope that Erdogan will be deposed, and a secular Turkish mainstream option returns to center-stage.

Not much chance of it but still very worth encouraging as the alternative for the Turkish people, when they finally decide they've had enough of living in a nasty screwed-up pseudo-religious state, used as a means for the corrupt and stupid to live out power-tripping fantasies.


Funny, on how Turkey can fund her massive military and all of those many military projects. (LHD's, Attack Helicopters, Advanced Trainer, TFX, etc. etc.) :roll:
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element1loop

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Unread post07 Jun 2021, 08:20

Corsair1963 wrote:Funny, on how Turkey can fund her massive military and all of those many military projects. (LHD's, Attack Helicopters, Advanced Trainer, TFX, etc. etc.) :roll:


You're kidding no one but yourself there. The Turks and Russians signed an S400 deal a few days before the beginning of 2018. i.e. 3.5 years ago.

Look what happened just before that, and after that, in comparative Euro trade exchange value terms:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Euro ... to_TRY.svg

But the exchange value against USD was far worse from much earlier in the past decade:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... D&view=10Y

Ever since about 2016 to 2017 the Turks knew they'd struggle to afford a large foreign weapon and platform import. It was quickly slipping out of reach. They have been trying to stay afloat via burning their financial reserves plus developing and selling locally produced weapons, as quickly as possible to countries with a currency that is in better shape than their own, to net earn foreign currency for Turkey. Unfortunately the Lira is still sinking, so imports are even more un-affordable, but foreign weapons sales are becoming increasingly valuable, to keep them afloat.

But now Erdogan is trying to steal or else bargain (protection money) to get a 'cut' of the oil and gas revenues of several countries around them, in Syria, Libya, Iraq, and Greece. They have no capacity to buy F-35A or F-35B from the US any more, nor can they buy a NATO European fighter, which is also now out of reach of their collapsed currency.

Euro verses Lira
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... R&view=10Y

That collapse goes right back to when Erdogan took power, it is not going to stop until he is gone, so even less affordability of US weapons is in their future, until then.

Hence the need to find a way out of the F-35A buy.

Presto! Buy S400s, and goad the US into cancelling the F-35A sale.

But do everything possible to retain the production and export of F-35 parts, as that makes increasingly valuable foreign earnings. And due to the exchange difference of Lira to USD, building F-35 parts has become extremely valuable and important work for Turkey. Much more so than when they were active in the F-35 program actually. Plus LM can obtain those parts for a comparatively very low cost, which keeps generally getting lower over time.

What's not to like about that? Thus Turkey is still making parts for F-35 regardless. An economic and financial virtuous-circle of sorts, but this does not change the fact that this arrangement will end, and the Lira is still falling, Erdogan is still there, and without a lot of export growth, and cheaper energy imports, Turkey's goose is cooked and their future is very bleak.

At which point financial and economic crisis finally strikes home and that is why things have not gone off the rails yet, especially for the military.

And when countries go full authoritarian mode, where do the budget allocation revenues go to? The military typically ends up with 60% to 70% of it ... i.e. the funding problems always show up last in the military funding and procurement.

Except the problem with buying weapons from countries with very strong currencies, has already emerged.

Nothing out of the norm there, the military will look fine, right up to the end of the Erdogan disaster.
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Unread post07 Jun 2021, 08:42

element1loop wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Funny, on how Turkey can fund her massive military and all of those many military projects. (LHD's, Attack Helicopters, Advanced Trainer, TFX, etc. etc.) :roll:


You're kidding no one but yourself there. The Turks and Russians signed an S400 deal a few days before the beginning of 2018. i.e. 3.5 years ago.

Look what happened just before that, and after that, in comparative Euro trade exchange value terms:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Euro ... to_TRY.svg

But the exchange value against USD was far worse from much earlier in the past decade:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... D&view=10Y

Ever since about 2016 to 2017 the Turks knew they'd struggle to afford a large foreign weapon and platform import. It was quickly slipping out of reach. They have been trying to stay afloat via burning their financial reserves plus developing and selling locally produced weapons, as quickly as possible to countries with a currency that is in better shape than their own, to net earn foreign currency for Turkey. Unfortunately the Lira is still sinking, so imports are even more un-affordable, but foreign weapons sales are becoming increasingly valuable, to keep them afloat.

But now Erdogan is trying to steal or else bargain (protection money) to get a 'cut' of the oil and gas revenues of several countries around them, in Syria, Libya, Iraq, and Greece. They have no capacity to buy F-35A or F-35B from the US any more, nor can they buy a NATO European fighter, which is also now out of reach of their collapsed currency.

Euro verses Lira
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... R&view=10Y

That collapse goes right back to when Erdogan took power, it is not going to stop until he is gone, so even less affordability of US weapons is in their future, until then.

Hence the need to find a way out of the F-35A buy.

Presto! Buy S400s, and goad the US into cancelling the F-35A sale.

But do everything possible to retain the production and export of F-35 parts, as that makes increasingly valuable foreign earnings. And due to the exchange difference of Lira to USD, building F-35 parts has become extremely valuable and important work for Turkey. Much more so than when they were active in the F-35 program actually. Plus LM can obtain those parts for a comparatively very low cost, which keeps generally getting lower over time.

What's not to like about that? Thus Turkey is still making parts for F-35 regardless. An economic and financial virtuous-circle of sorts, but this does not change the fact that this arrangement will end, and the Lira is still falling, Erdogan is still there, and without a lot of export growth, and cheaper energy imports, Turkey's goose is cooked and their future is very bleak.

At which point financial and economic crisis finally strikes home and that is why things have not gone off the rails yet, especially for the military.

And when countries go full authoritarian mode, where do the budget allocation revenues go to? The military typically ends up with 60% to 70% of it ... i.e. the funding problems always show up last in the military funding and procurement.

Except the problem with buying weapons from countries with very strong currencies, has already emerged.

Nothing out of the norm there, the military will look fine, right up to the end of the Erdogan disaster.



hmm, I wonder how your going to explain it. After Turkey rejoins the F-35 Program and get their aircraft???
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Unread post07 Jun 2021, 09:00

Funny, your doom and gloom doesn't seem to be hurting the endless list of Defense Programs???


Turkey to Upgrade Leopard 2A4 tank with Indigenous Armor Package
Our Bureau 04:36 AM, June 7, 2021 498
https://www.defenseworld.net/news/29740 ... L3OKN0pDZF


Kenya Orders 118 Turkish Armored Combat Vehicles
Our Bureau 01:35 PM, June 4, 2021 1171
https://www.defenseworld.net/news/29728 ... L3OjN0pDZE

US OKs Turkey Sale of Six Attack Helicopters to Philippines
The T129 is designed for advanced attack and reconnaissance missions in hot and high environments.
Joe Saballa May 19, 2021
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/05/ ... licopters/



At long last, Turkey’s Altay tank finds an engine from South Korea
By: Burak Ege Bekdil   March 8
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/te ... uth-korea/

HÜRJET New Generation AJT’s CDR Phase Completed
The Critical Design Review (CDR) Phase of the HÜRJET, twin-seat, single-engine supersonic new generation Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) and Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) was completed in early March 2021.
https://www.defenceturkey.com/en/conten ... leted-4414

Turkey hopes new engine deal will power future TF-X fighter jet
By: Burak Ege Bekdil   February 16, 2021
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/te ... ghter-jet/

Behold The Turkish Navy’s Drone Aircraft Carrier
David AxeForbes Staff
May 10, 2021,08:00am EDT
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 96db8e39da


Pakistan Navy Get Another Booster-Shot From Turkey With Third Jinnah-Class Warship
By
Ayush Jain
May 7, 2021

Turkey laid the keel for a new Pakistani warship at the Istanbul Naval Shipyard in a ceremony attended by many high-ranking officials last week. This is the third Jinnah-class multipurpose corvette of the Pakistan Navy.
https://eurasiantimes.com/pakistan-navy ... s-warship/


ETC.ETC.ETC.
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Unread post07 Jun 2021, 09:57

Corsair1963 wrote:hmm, I wonder how your going to explain it. After Turkey rejoins the F-35 Program and get their aircraft???


omg ... how are you going to explain it when they don't? :doh: :mrgreen:
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Unread post07 Jun 2021, 10:02

Corsair1963 wrote:Funny, your doom and gloom doesn't seem to be hurting the endless list of Defense Programs???


Ah, no, that's exactly what I said, they're now dependent on scaling-up local weapon production for export markets to obtain foreign currency via weapons export, and to make their own ... duh

BTW, the LHD Anadolu was ordered on the 1st of June 2015, before most of the Lira's value evaporated. The second LHD they wanted has not been ordered, and it won't be.
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Unread post07 Jun 2021, 12:00

element1loop wrote:BTW, the LHD Anadolu was ordered on the 1st of June 2015, before most of the Lira's value evaporated. The second LHD they wanted has not been ordered, and it won't be.

True, the rate seems to have 3.19x from 1 Jun 2015 (then 1 lira 2.7 USD, now 8.6). https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdtry

Obviously further military imports can still happen, but it's going to be more painful for everything else.

No suprise that the domestic projects seem to be in vogue now. Those and even more, exports rely on quite a bit of importing US components though.
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Unread post08 Jun 2021, 02:13

element1loop wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Funny, your doom and gloom doesn't seem to be hurting the endless list of Defense Programs???


Ah, no, that's exactly what I said, they're now dependent on scaling-up local weapon production for export markets to obtain foreign currency via weapons export, and to make their own ... duh

BTW, the LHD Anadolu was ordered on the 1st of June 2015, before most of the Lira's value evaporated. The second LHD they wanted has not been ordered, and it won't be.



We will see.......
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Unread post08 Jun 2021, 04:15

Corsair1963 wrote:... endless list of Defense Programs???


Turkey to Upgrade Leopard 2A4 tank with Indigenous Armor Package
...

1980's tanks, being upgraded to A5-> 1990's armor packs ... ?
Kenya Orders 118 Turkish Armored Combat Vehicles

You can get better, cheaper, from "Podunk County, Hick State, Sheriff's motor pool with post Afghan MRAP's, slightly used.
US OKs Turkey Sale of Six Attack Helicopters to Philippines


We already discussed the Honeywell low tech for anyone 80's design here.

At long last, Turkey’s Altay tank finds an engine from South Korea
...

You almost had me there, as South Korea builds some very good diesel engines ... but then I noticed Turkey didn't get the German ones they wanted because ... oh yeah the embargo :D But yes if they build a tank the SKorea engines would be a plus.
If .
.. [from your link,]
"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office included the Altay tank as part of the military’s 2020 inventory in a government document. But the presidential office’s 2021 investment program did not mention the Altay, let alone the tank entering service."
But the engines sitting on the factory floor will be dang good, I have to admit that. They just won't be the German ones ... sorry bout that...
HÜRJET New Generation AJT’s CDR Phase Completed
The Critical Design Review (CDR) Phase of the HÜRJET, twin-seat, single-engine supersonic new generation Advanced Jet ...
A CDR is something that isn't even finalized as a design yet ... *sigh*
Turkey hopes new engine deal ...

Yep "HOPES" is about right ...
Behold The Turkish Navy’s Drone Aircraft Carrier
..

"The brute-simple method, which combines a winch-and-pulley system with a bow ramp, could help the Turkish navy transform its new assault ship Anadolu into the world’s first true drone aircraft carrier.

Winches and Pulleys! Really ? OMG So Turkey's awesume world class aircraft carrier will now be a Boy Scout Pinewood derby model airplane carrier ... That's a step forward ... if they can make pulleys? Yeah they can probably do that, if they let the boy scout out of prison ...
Pakistan Navy Get Another Booster-Shot From Turkey With Third Jinnah-Class Warship
Turkey laid the keel for a ... third Jinnah-class multipurpose corvette of the Pakistan Navy.

A fairly decent 2005 corvette design barely put together with Pakistan MILGEN $$ help..
ETC.ETC.ETC.

Finally. What "some here WANT" is a return of Ataturk's Turkey. Nothing more and nothing less. F-35's and 1980's want-a-be tech aren't even in view of what is "wanted," and is meaningless to the elephant in the room. It's not S-400 or F-35. It's Erdogan or Ataturk, and only the Turkish people can make that choice. If they choose Erdogan it will not be pretty ... Russia will devour them like a wolf on a lamb. And the western world will sigh and turn their back.

FWIW,
BP
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Unread post08 Jun 2021, 04:32

blindpilot wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:... endless list of Defense Programs???


Turkey to Upgrade Leopard 2A4 tank with Indigenous Armor Package
...

1980's tanks, being upgraded to A5-> 1990's armor packs ... ?
Kenya Orders 118 Turkish Armored Combat Vehicles

You can get better, cheaper, from "Podunk County, Hick State, Sheriff's motor pool with post Afghan MRAP's, slightly used.
US OKs Turkey Sale of Six Attack Helicopters to Philippines


We already discussed the Honeywell low tech for anyone 80's design here.

At long last, Turkey’s Altay tank finds an engine from South Korea
...

You almost had me there, as South Korea builds some very good diesel engines ... but then I noticed Turkey didn't get the German ones they wanted because ... oh yeah the embargo :D But yes if they build a tank the SKorea engines would be a plus.
If .
.. [from your link,]
"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office included the Altay tank as part of the military’s 2020 inventory in a government document. But the presidential office’s 2021 investment program did not mention the Altay, let alone the tank entering service."
But the engines sitting on the factory floor will be dang good, I have to admit that. They just won't be the German ones ... sorry bout that...
HÜRJET New Generation AJT’s CDR Phase Completed
The Critical Design Review (CDR) Phase of the HÜRJET, twin-seat, single-engine supersonic new generation Advanced Jet ...
A CDR is something that isn't even finalized as a design yet ... *sigh*
Turkey hopes new engine deal ...

Yep "HOPES" is about right ...
Behold The Turkish Navy’s Drone Aircraft Carrier
..

"The brute-simple method, which combines a winch-and-pulley system with a bow ramp, could help the Turkish navy transform its new assault ship Anadolu into the world’s first true drone aircraft carrier.

Winches and Pulleys! Really ? OMG So Turkey's awesume world class aircraft carrier will now be a Boy Scout Pinewood derby model airplane carrier ... That's a step forward ... if they can make pulleys? Yeah they can probably do that, if they let the boy scout out of prison ...
Pakistan Navy Get Another Booster-Shot From Turkey With Third Jinnah-Class Warship
Turkey laid the keel for a ... third Jinnah-class multipurpose corvette of the Pakistan Navy.

A fairly decent 2005 corvette design barely put together with Pakistan MILGEN $$ help..
ETC.ETC.ETC.

Finally. What "some here WANT" is a return of Ataturk's Turkey. Nothing more and nothing less. F-35's and 1980's want-a-be tech aren't even in view of what is "wanted," and is meaningless to the elephant in the room. It's not S-400 or F-35. It's Erdogan or Ataturk, and only the Turkish people can make that choice. If they choose Erdogan it will not be pretty ... Russia will devour them like a wolf on a lamb. And the western world will sigh and turn their back.

FWIW,
BP


Your missing the point. Which, is hardly surprising....... :roll:
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blindpilot

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Unread post08 Jun 2021, 04:48

Corsair1963 wrote:...
Your missing the point. Which, is hardly surprising....... :roll:


We probably agree somewhat there - as before -
blindpilot wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Point here is the US and Turkey are working very much on a compromise........


I know that's your point. you assert it frequently, as if it is a fait accompli, self evident fact not to be argued. Yeah no argument needed, but the assertion is simply false.
My point is ... Where is any evidence of such feverish "working very much." There is none!


But just to be clear.
The geopolitical, military, empire, present and future, of Turkey are not seen in news paper clippings from an autocratic regime, who imprisons dissent. It is seen in the streets with the people. That is all I am talking about ... because that is all I know for sure. Any other point, I bring no expertise or evidence... so I have no opinion on those points, but consider what the thing I do bring really means to all points. You will not read it in newspapers.

BP
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Unread post08 Jun 2021, 05:17

blindpilot wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:...
Your missing the point. Which, is hardly surprising....... :roll:


We probably agree somewhat there - as before -
blindpilot wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Point here is the US and Turkey are working very much on a compromise........


I know that's your point. you assert it frequently, as if it is a fait accompli, self evident fact not to be argued. Yeah no argument needed, but the assertion is simply false.
My point is ... Where is any evidence of such feverish "working very much." There is none!


But just to be clear.
The geopolitical, military, empire, present and future, of Turkey are not seen in news paper clippings from an autocratic regime, who imprisons dissent. It is seen in the streets with the people. That is all I am talking about ... because that is all I know for sure. Any other point, I bring no expertise or evidence... so I have no opinion on those points, but consider what the thing I do bring really means to all points. You will not read it in newspapers.

BP


I am not making a case for Turkey. Just making the point of the larger political realities of the Turkey/US/NATO Relationship.....

So, again don't be surprised. When Turkey makes a deal to resolve the S400/F-35 issue......
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Unread post08 Jun 2021, 14:36

Corsair1963 wrote:...

I am not making a case for Turkey. Just making the point of the larger political realities of the Turkey/US/NATO Relationship.....

So, again don't be surprised. When Turkey makes a deal to resolve the S400/F-35 issue......


I agree we are simply left at "don't be surprised when/if" and "we'll see." I also agree, that Erdogan believes he can make a deal on the back side. My comment to him and to that theory is ...

"Don't be surprised when ... "

Russia, as she has done for centuries and centuries of history, drops little green men a la eastern Ukraine, etc. to help "advise" the Turkish president on the villa lifestyle. And NATO with their signatures of blood, brushes it off looking to other geopolitical options, inviting regional alternatives into the meetings.

But we will see. The people are voting with their feet, if any one is counting evidence.

We will see.

MHO,
BP
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Unread post09 Jun 2021, 03:17

F-35 Program page numbered 203 GAO-21-222 Weapon Systems Annual Assessment
Jun 2021 GAO

"...As the program continues to reallocate Turkish parts from the supply chain following Turkey’s suspension from the F-35 program, DOD authorized contractors to continue using Turkish parts through 2022, helping to alleviate concerns that removing Turkish suppliers will cause delays to aircraft deliveries. Program officials report they identified alternative suppliers for all 1,005 affected parts...."

Source: https://assets.documentcloud.org/docume ... needed.pdf (13.3Mb)
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
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