Finnish DefMin Interest in F-35s NOT Gripens

It is a journalist and the GAO after all. Perhaps they don't know block 4 is split to block 4.1 and 4.2. The F135 engine update is part of 4.2

Audit clears Finnish F-35 buy amid rising spending on pandemic, Ukraine
29 Mar 2022 Gerard O'Dwyer

"HELSINKI — A budgetary analysis by Finland’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) has determined that the government’s $10 billion buy of 64 Lockheed F-35 fighter jets can be funded from within the Finnish Defense Force’s (FDF) established annual income and expenditure framework.

Officials conducted the cost and affordability review to ascertain if factors outside the armed forces’ control, including pandemic-led government spending constraints and pressures on the military’s finances amid tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, might require supplementary measures outside of the defense budget to help fund the acquisition....

...Finland had budgeted to spend $5.6 billion on defense in 2022, equivalent to 1.96% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product. The Finnish government has responded to the FDF Command’s concerns by promising to increase the defense budget for 2022 and 2023. Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen informed opposition party leaders on March 24 that Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Cabinet would meet in coming weeks to discuss ways of raising Finland’s defense budget year-on-year to ensure that the military has sufficient finances to cover all expenditure needs moving forward....

...Significantly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in the Finnish government approving plans by the FDF to accelerate a rebuild of the country’s ground-based air defenses and the linked procurement of surface-to-air missile systems, said Kaikkonen. The FDF is currently examining purchases of anti-aircraft weapons systems from potential suppliers Israel Aerospace Industries and Rafael Advanced Systems.

“This is another substantial investment for Finland, coming as it does after our agreement to acquire 64 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed. The reality is we need to invest more to ensure we maintain a strong national defense capability,” said Kaikkonen.

The F-35 fighter jets will replace the Finnish Air Force’s (FAF) 57 F-18 Hornet frontline fighters purchased from McDonnell Douglas in 1992. The FAF, which plans to phase out all existing Hornets by 2030, expects to take delivery of the first F-35 jets in 2026, becoming the third Nordic country, along with Denmark and Norway, to operate the aircraft type."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... c-ukraine/

Everybody is getting on the bandwagon now. The Ukraine war has scared the crap out of everybody.

Everybody is getting on the bandwagon now. The Ukraine war has scared the crap out of everybody.

Yes, Vladimir Putin has been the best possible salesman for significantly increased defence budgets in NATO and EU countries (and elsewhere too) and countries suddenly wanting to join NATO. I think that didn't go quite the way he thought it would...

No mention of the usefulness of F-35s - perhaps they will also 'fast-track' events for operating them as well as join NATO?

Finland preparing for Russian ‘consequences’ if it joins NATO: top MoD official 08 Apr 2022 AARON MEHTA
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/fin ... -official/

Based on current public discussion they are unlikely to be fast-tracked.
F/A-18s are still seen as capable.

Getting Block 4 hardware from the get-go still seems to be the most in demand attribute of the F-35 transition scheduling.

What is being done is expanding the missile stocks. Surface to surface missiles and air defense missiles are named. These include more Gabriel V for sure and perhaps more ESSM. But they also might mean extra AMRAAM.

What is also very likely happening is that the early 2023 scheduled award for high altitude surface to air defense procurement will be larger than expected. Meaning the Army will buy more Barak MX (with LRAD ER missile) or David's Sling (with Stunner missile) than expected.

WIth regard to F-35 since Australia seems to be accelerating their JASSM-ER and NSM(JSM) schedule with 2 billion extra funds allocated, we might note how Finland and Australia have already earlier shared JASSM. Now with F-35 there's a chance that the interests could align once again. At least we know that the Finnish HX bids included JASSM-ER for both F-35 and Super Hornet/Growler packages, so they are among the most likely to be procured. But if the F-35 introduction doesn't get altered, Finland could utilize them only around 2028 at the earliest (maybe even 2030-32).

The logistics probably are going to be built differently now when Finland looks like it will be Nato country when the F-35s would be introduced. Then the stockpiles might not be a Finnish and a US one, but rather a Nato forward stockpile and a national one.

Finnish NATO decision coming in ‘weeks,’ with Swedish choice not far behind 13 Apr 2022 AARON MEHTA
"Finnish security report finds NATO membership, along with Sweden's joining, would "enhance stability" in northern Europe, but also warns about unconventional responses from Russia and looming trade consequences."
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/fin ... ar-behind/

Based on current public discussion they are unlikely to be fast-tracked.
F/A-18s are still seen as capable.

Getting Block 4 hardware from the get-go still seems to be the most in demand attribute of the F-35 transition scheduling.

What is being done is expanding the missile stocks. Surface to surface missiles and air defense missiles are named. These include more Gabriel V for sure and perhaps more ESSM. But they also might mean extra AMRAAM.

What is also very likely happening is that the early 2023 scheduled award for high altitude surface to air defense procurement will be larger than expected. Meaning the Army will buy more Barak MX (with LRAD ER missile) or David's Sling (with Stunner missile) than expected.

WIth regard to F-35 since Australia seems to be accelerating their JASSM-ER and NSM(JSM) schedule with 2 billion extra funds allocated, we might note how Finland and Australia have already earlier shared JASSM. Now with F-35 there's a chance that the interests could align once again. At least we know that the Finnish HX bids included JASSM-ER for both F-35 and Super Hornet/Growler packages, so they are among the most likely to be procured. But if the F-35 introduction doesn't get altered, Finland could utilize them only around 2028 at the earliest (maybe even 2030-32).

The logistics probably are going to be built differently now when Finland looks like it will be Nato country when the F-35s would be introduced. Then the stockpiles might not be a Finnish and a US one, but rather a Nato forward stockpile and a national one.

I agree that air-to-ground munitions situation will be rather interesting now. We have JASSM, JDAM and some small amount of JSOW. F-35 will get SDB II, JSOW, JDAM and JASSM-ER along with JSM. I think easiest would be to buy the JSOW and JDAM intended for F-35 now as they are in service now and our Hornets can use them directly. They'd give enough deterrence for now along with our current JASSM missiles. Maybe add some small amount of current JASSM if JASSM-ER can't be used right now with Hornets. I think these would make any airborne or naval landing a real suicide as Hornets could fairly easily lob even JDAMs outside the reach of potential air defences.

I wonder where the Australian JASSMs are now? Since they should've been retired with Hornets. Upgraded? Sold back to the US? Poland?

‘There will be no way back’: will war change Finland’s pragmatic approach to Russia? [halfway there with F-35?]
21 Apr 2022 Pjotr Sauer in Lappeenranta

"...Finland has maintained strong defence spending over the last 30 years while the rest of Europe has largely made cuts. The Nordic state is also one of the few European countries to have retained military conscription, and almost a third of its adult population are reservists...."

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/th ... ar-AAWqXbw

The F-35 is the new Nordic fighter!

https://www.airforcemag.com/what-a-nato ... operation/

Take that best fighter for Canada!

The article states that Norway, Denmark and Sweden have selected the Joint strike Fighter. That would be the journalistic scoop of the year if Sweden chose the F-35.

Norway, at least used to, have an agreement not to permanently base fighter aircraft within a certain distance of the Russian border. I wonder if such an agreement/demand will be discussed with Finland.

The F-35 is the new Nordic fighter!

https://www.airforcemag.com/what-a-nato ... operation/

Take that best fighter for Canada!

WOW! I missed that - speed reading has its faults. Thanks for pointing out that HOWLER: "...“You could say the F-35 is a Nordic fighter, and it has a big meaning for the future,” the official said, referring to the selection of the Joint Strike Fighter by Norway, Denmark, and Sweden...."

Norway, at least used to, have an agreement not to permanently base fighter aircraft within a certain distance of the Russian border. I wonder if such an agreement/demand will be discussed with Finland.

Doesn't seem worthwhile, since nothing is suggesting they would move from their current bases. Readiness unit positioning is another matter, it's very fluid.

Norway, at least used to, have an agreement not to permanently base fighter aircraft within a certain distance of the Russian border. I wonder if such an agreement/demand will be discussed with Finland.

Doesn't seem worthwhile, since nothing is suggesting they would move from their current bases. Readiness unit positioning is another matter, it's very fluid.

I fully understand that. Good luck!