Finnish DefMin Interest in F-35s NOT Gripens

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
  • Author
  • Message
Offline
User avatar

spazsinbad

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 26800
  • Joined: 05 May 2009, 21:31
  • Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Warnings: -2

Unread post04 Dec 2021, 18:29

:devil: AND to think Australia just bypassed all this to pick the F-35 yonks ago. Well done Oz. What were they thinking? :mrgreen:
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
Offline

optimist

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1572
  • Joined: 20 Nov 2014, 03:34
  • Location: australia

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 02:26

spazsinbad wrote::devil: AND to think Australia just bypassed all this to pick the F-35 yonks ago. Well done Oz. What were they thinking? :mrgreen:

We even canceled the comp, we had organised. We saw it as a given, that the f-35 'system of systems' was the future.
Aussie fanboy
Offline

magitsu

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1036
  • Joined: 12 Jun 2015, 22:12

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 17:36

If this is to be believed, the FDF has presented F-35 to the MoD. [basically it can't be anything other than true, these are among the most legit journalists]
Sources: Finnish Defense Forces nominates US F-35 as Finland's new fighter
The Finnish Defense Forces proposes the US F-35 as Finland's next fighter. The matter is confirmed to Iltalehti from several sources of foreign and security policy.

The Defense Forces have proposed to the Ministry of Defense that an F-35 fighter manufactured by the American Lockheed Martin be acquired as the new fighter of the Finnish Air Force.

According to IL, the Defense Forces base their recommendation on, among other things, performance and the F-35's known long life cycle. The fighter's user countries are committed to developing the fighter until the 2060s.

Next, the Ministry of Defense will prepare a proposal for the fighter to procure a fighter jet. According to the IL, the ministry and the management of foreign and security policy support the proposal of the experts, ie the defense administration.

The HX project involves reviewing the calculations made by the Defense Forces' HX tender team at the Department of Defense.

For the F-35, the annual operating costs are relevant. They are within the framework set by the tender, according to which operating costs should not exceed 10% of the Defense Forces' peacetime budget. In that case, they should not exceed EUR 250 million.

F-35 cost consultation
From European countries, Switzerland has ordered American F-35 fighters this year. In November, Martin Sonderegger, Director of Materials at the Swiss Ministry of Defense, visited Helsinki and met with Raimo Jyväsjärvi, Head of the Resource Policy Department at the Ministry of Defense.

According to IL, the cost of operating the F-35 fighter was on the agenda.

According to sources, the government will decide on the acquisition of the fighter within about ten days. The announcement of the solution would not be left for Christmas week.

The Government's upcoming decision is first to be reported to the fighter manufacturer's domestic government.

For the F-35, this means that the U.S. Department of Defense would be the first to receive information on the selection from the Pentagon. After the transmission of this information, the choice of fighter is to be announced practically immediately.

A wider briefing on the selection criteria would be held after the announcement of the fighter’s name.

The selection of fighters has been on the agenda in recent weeks in the joint Foreign and Security Policy Committee of the President of the Republic and the Government in TP-Utva.

The choice is the government
Completion of the Defense Administration's presentation means that the HX tender, which began in 2015, has been completed.

The government may choose to select a fighter other than the winner of the defense administration's scoring, but IL sources consider this unlikely. There are also those within the government who would prefer a European rather than an American fighter jet.

The F-35 is manufactured by Lockheed Martin in the United States. According to IL data, the company's representatives have approached Finnish companies during the autumn to negotiate a EUR 10 billion fighter acquisition.

Five aircraft are nominated for Finland's new fighter: the Swedish Gripen, the American F-35 and Super-Hornet, the British-powered Eurofighter and the French Rafale.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/8 ... 255e54d3f4

What we can expect is full court press on F-35 affordability for the next 10 days until the government decides.
Last edited by magitsu on 05 Dec 2021, 18:10, edited 1 time in total.
Offline

sunstersun

Active Member

Active Member

  • Posts: 222
  • Joined: 12 Jul 2017, 06:50

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 18:01

No surprise, still nice to know.
Offline

talkitron

Forum Veteran

Forum Veteran

  • Posts: 526
  • Joined: 07 Nov 2007, 10:55

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 18:09

Congrats in advance to Lockheed for winning in a competitive tender, even though most of us agree Lockheed's product is superior to the others.
Offline

kimjongnumbaun

Forum Veteran

Forum Veteran

  • Posts: 523
  • Joined: 08 Dec 2016, 21:41

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 18:12

Apparently the F-35 won. Their bid came in 10 BN and Gripen with it's Global Eye came in at 11 BN. Another nail in the coffin for Saab. This pretty much cements a loss for Saab in Canada.
Offline

magitsu

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1036
  • Joined: 12 Jun 2015, 22:12

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 18:14

kimjongnumbaun wrote:Apparently the F-35 won. Their bid came in 10 BN and Gripen with it's Global Eye came in at 11 BN. Another nail in the coffin for Saab. This pretty much cements a loss for Saab in Canada.

They were all designed to cost at roughly 9.4 billion euros. They needed to qualify pass/fail stages before entering scenario based (2 weeks each were reserved for military games, several cycles of sorties - apparently each were able to send a consultant to advise how to use their fighter) military performance review, which was the only thing that was ranked. So it ended up being 100% military performance.

It's been always for the others hoping that F-35 would've failed in the pass/fail stages. By the time LM told in public that they offered 64 with the current Hornets' amount of flight hours it became forlorn hope to thwart them in performance.
Offline
User avatar

spazsinbad

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 26800
  • Joined: 05 May 2009, 21:31
  • Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Warnings: -2

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 19:18

"...Completion of the Defense Administration's presentation means that the HX tender, which began in 2015, has been completed..." No wonder this is a long thread. 8)
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
Offline

magitsu

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1036
  • Joined: 12 Jun 2015, 22:12

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 19:33

The main national newspaper HS reports on IL's story and has fetched a non-comment from the HX program director on the MoD's side.
Lauri Puranen, Program Director for Strategic Projects at the Ministry of Defense, briefly commented on Iltalehti's information to HS on Sunday evening as follows:

"We're not going to comment on such rumors," Puranen said.


Also some about the [lack of] meaningfulness of others' recent choices:
How much does Finland look towards its European counterparts? Obviously not much, although the interests are much in common.

"We do not take any position on the decisions of other countries, but we focus on finding the best solution for Finland," says Puranen, Project Manager at the Ministry of Defense.

He admits that, of course, projects in other countries are being monitored, but from public sources.

“The choice of other countries does not affect our choice in any way. Our choice is based entirely on our own needs, the requirements of our operating environment and the guidance given to us by the state management during the project, ”says Puranen.

"We have exchanged information with Switzerland about our process and schedules, but we have not exchanged any confidential information."

https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000008447718.html
Online

hythelday

Forum Veteran

Forum Veteran

  • Posts: 774
  • Joined: 25 Jul 2016, 12:43
  • Location: Estonia

Unread post05 Dec 2021, 22:16

This going to be good.

I postpone the celebration until official announcement, BUT if this is really the case, then all the Nordic Air Forces except one have made a colossal mistake and bought into overpriced glamorized F-117. When all F-35s shall be grounded because Russians hacked ALIS servers, it shall be Sweden alone protecting the vast North. But I am sure they can manage it. It's not like they like to brag, but on a humble Gripen E is the only 6th gen fighter in the world, and they have a black belt in killing Flankers.

Image
Offline

sunstersun

Active Member

Active Member

  • Posts: 222
  • Joined: 12 Jul 2017, 06:50

Unread post06 Dec 2021, 01:12

my lockheed stock is gonnna gooooo brrrrrrrrrr :mrgreen:
Offline

Corsair1963

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 8182
  • Joined: 19 Dec 2005, 04:14

Unread post06 Dec 2021, 02:37

Finland Is Reported to Pick F-35 Jets in $11 Billion Tender

Kati Pohjanpalo and Leo Laikola, Bloomberg News


(Bloomberg) -- Finland is set to pick Lockheed Martin Corp. F-35 fighter jets in its 10 billion-euro ($11.3 billion) tender to replace soon-outdated war planes that form a key defense pillar of Russia’s neighbor, according to a report in local media.

A fleet of F-35s will be acquired due to their capability and expected long lifespan, newspaper Iltalehti said, citing a number of defense and security policy sources it didn’t identify. The Defense Forces made the proposal to the Defense Ministry, which backs the motion along with top security and foreign policy makers, the newspaper said on Sunday.

Selecting the Lockheed Martin warplanes would align the Nordic country with the U.S. for the coming decades through industrial cooperation that accounts for almost a third of the order price. Finland is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, though it trains with the alliance and uses NATO-compatible gear.

Lauri Puranen, a director at the defense ministry who is responsible for the procurement, declined to comment when contacted by another local newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat.

Finland has spent the past five years selecting a new fighter with air-to-surface and air-to-sea capabilities to defend a 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia, seeking to deter any aggression from its eastern neighbor. The jets will replace 64 Boeing F/A-18 Hornets that will be retired in stages in 2025 to 2030, with the new aircraft set to be in service until the 2060s. The procurement also includes weapons systems, sensors, supporting equipment and functions, such as training.




While the Nordic nation of 5.5 million can muster 180,000 troops for wartime service through national conscription, its landmass is too large to defend without war planes. Finland has also been considering fighter jets from Boeing Co., Dassault Aviation SA, the Eurofighter consortium and Saab AB, and the government is due to decide this month on the procurement.



https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/finland-is- ... -1.1691544
Offline

kimjongnumbaun

Forum Veteran

Forum Veteran

  • Posts: 523
  • Joined: 08 Dec 2016, 21:41

Unread post06 Dec 2021, 03:09

hythelday wrote:and they have a black belt in killing Flankers.


They should have focused their efforts in having a black belt in beating the F-35 in fighter competitions. :devil:
Offline

weasel1962

Elite 2K

Elite 2K

  • Posts: 2697
  • Joined: 07 Jun 2012, 02:41
  • Location: Singapore

Unread post06 Dec 2021, 03:20

kimjongnumbaun wrote:Apparently the F-35 won. Their bid came in 10 BN and Gripen with it's Global Eye came in at 11 BN. Another nail in the coffin for Saab. This pretty much cements a loss for Saab in Canada.


Its another brick in the wall facing Russia. $10b is significantly lower than the $12.5b approved for the dsca. Comes up to $156m for 64 which suggests ~$78m each (x2 incl maintenance).
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major- ... es-and-air
Offline

loke

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1222
  • Joined: 14 Nov 2008, 19:07

Unread post07 Dec 2021, 08:51

Actually I think the probability of F-35 winning decreased slightly.

We already knew before the announcement that the Finnish Air Force would prefer the F-35 in particular after the announcement that LM could deliver 64 F-35 within budget.

From that perspective, no "new" information was shared when the the recommendation of F-35 was leaked to the media.

However, the new info we did get, was that somebody decided to leak this intel. In Norway leaks from the military are very, very rare. It is considered a very serious matter. When it happens, it has always been because somebody within the military has not been happy with the decision processes, and try to influence the decisions by leaking.

The F-35 is still the most likely choice, however, to me the fact that somebody decided to leak, means that most likely "somebody" is a bit nervous that the politicians may not follow the recommendations of the Finnish Air Force.

Unless hornetfinn or magitsu can present another convincing argument for the leak, my take is that the probability of F-35 actually decreased -- from 99.9% to, perhaps, 95%? Or even 90%?

In other news Corporal Frisk has run some simulations: https://corporalfrisk.com/2021/12/04/wargames/

Should not be taken too seriously, since: 1. he has no access to classified data; 2. he is not an expert, and 3. the tool has of course several limitations.
PreviousNext

Return to Program and politics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests