Finnish DefMin Interest in F-35s NOT Gripens

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ricnunes

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Unread post14 May 2021, 15:36

XanderCrews wrote:

Does news like this register in Finland?



No, they live in ice caves. You should run over and tell them. Once you tell one cave word will spread. Get going quick!

but remember its an old Finnish custom that when yelling into an ice cave in a concerned fashion, you must be naked and wearing a gorilla mask. its critical that the mask be worn, or they won't take your concern seriously.


:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

By the way, he should take the opportunity when going to one of those ice caves to promote the Gripen - the real Stealth fighter aircraft since its completely invisible (since it still doesn't exist)! :roll:
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post14 May 2021, 15:36

magitsu wrote:Hornet flight hour cost for FiAF was 8200 euros (10k usd) in 2018 or 2019. BAe Hawk trainer 4700 euros for comparison.
https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/lei ... la/7439792



What is the Gripen E's current official cost per flight hour so we can compare, and will a combat ready Gripen E cost even more? We don't have any of those yet, and I'm very concerned. The last Gripen upgrade cost 2 billion dollars, suffered delays, and is still not in service yet.

is Finland aware of any of this?

I'm scared. hold me, Finland
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XanderCrews

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Unread post14 May 2021, 15:42

loke wrote:Thanks for a good and informative post. It's good to hear that the Finnish media is covering this topic.


What a relief! Before now I wasn't sure if any one in the media had noticed F-35 costs.

I feel so much better now too.

Just a minor comment regarding F-35 sustainment costs, according to the article I quoted they are now USD 33,300 per flight hour for the A model, but that's in 2012 USD not today's USD. Not sure what kind of inflation rates they have been using, but using inflation calculator based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index, this should correspond to roughly 38,700 USD today.


Thanks for keeping us updated on that, thats great news! between this and the fact that LM is a much more stable company than Saab, its now a great morning.

What are the Gripen E's costs for comparison? what are the CPFH for the current Gripen E test fleet? What about the in service fleet? what does a Gripen E cost flyaway? Saab won't tell us. This is not concerning for some reason.

Did you apply equal concern for Gripen news in this thread where the very title says Finland is not interested in Gripens? and is that concerning?


As I have said before, F-35A most likely will win in Finland. It will be interesting to see how many they manage to fit within the budget.


Incredibly interesting indeed!! I bet you can't wait to find out!

What an emotional rollercoaster this has been
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Unread post14 May 2021, 20:42

Chew Bacca Laugh Mask [almost a GiroolaMaske] (yes I know) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEcF-R9c7u4

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steve2267

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Unread post14 May 2021, 23:24

The Aussies are budgeting $25K/flight hour for their F-35's this coming fiscal year. How can the Aussies be flying the Panther for $25K/hr and the US can't seem to figgur it out?
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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Unread post15 May 2021, 01:14

Do we know how RAAF CPFH is calculated? Perhaps we do. Then is that the same way USA calculates their CPFH? Dunno.
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Unread post15 May 2021, 02:29

steve2267 wrote:The Aussies are budgeting $25K/flight hour for their F-35's this coming fiscal year. How can the Aussies be flying the Panther for $25K/hr and the US can't seem to figgur it out?


The US is flying earlier model F-35s which are going to be more expensive due to their age and that they haven't been brought up to block 4 standard (and most likely never will) since they are test birds or being used for training. Early model aircraft before block 3F are all going to have unique nuances to them which make them more expensive because they may require unique parts. This raises the average CPFH for the fleet. The US also operates differently than Australia. They aren't deploying their F-35s to the ME.

The Aussie's probably have the most accurate operational costs for an F-35A.
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Unread post15 May 2021, 02:35

spazsinbad wrote:Do we know how RAAF CPFH is calculated? Perhaps we do. Then is that the same way USA calculates their CPFH? Dunno.


I came across an Aussie budget doc for 2020-2021 (or was it 21-22?). I posted it around here somewhere. It was a pretty simple calculation: X Australian dollars to operate Y F-35's for total Z flight hours during the year. Divide that total budget cost by total flight hours and sonnofagun... it worked out to $25K (USD)/hour. It was reportedly less than $25K/hr, but the USD became more expensive or something.

I am tired of the political drama and budgeting games the US Congress plays. Here's one of 'Murica's closest allies operating the "rathole" F-35 for the target cost the USAF "doesn't think is achievable." :bang:
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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Unread post15 May 2021, 07:34

I came across an Aussie budget doc for 2020-2021 (or was it 21-22?). I posted it around here somewhere. It was a pretty simple calculation: X Australian dollars to operate Y F-35's for total Z flight hours during the year. Divide that total budget cost by total flight hours and sonnofagun... it worked out to $25K (USD)/hour. It was reportedly less than $25K/hr, but the USD became more expensive or something.


Using actual hours flown last year the Aussie CPFH came in at AUD$50k or US$39k, based on a AUD$267m operating budget and reduced flying effort of 5250hrs, as opposed to an estimated 8204, mostly due to COVID.

The latest budget numbers released on Tuesday night show a reduced budget of AUD$216m and an increased flying effort of 11,831hrs for a CPFH of AUD$18k or US$14k. Perhaps we clever Aussies have cracked the code, Aussie fleet planners have increased the flight hours and reduced the annual sustainment budget from $267m to $216m. I see heads exploding in forums all over the internet including BF4C if the US$14k number is verified in the next budget cycle.

Admittedly the Australian calculus for CPFH would not include the vast array of inputs that the USAF number encompasses. The JPO has stated in the past that the F35 CPFH captures every cost associated with the air and ground components of the platform/system, which has never been done in the past.
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Unread post15 May 2021, 12:29

operaaperta wrote:
I came across an Aussie budget doc for 2020-2021 (or was it 21-22?). I posted it around here somewhere. It was a pretty simple calculation: X Australian dollars to operate Y F-35's for total Z flight hours during the year. Divide that total budget cost by total flight hours and sonnofagun... it worked out to $25K (USD)/hour. It was reportedly less than $25K/hr, but the USD became more expensive or something.


Using actual hours flown last year the Aussie CPFH came in at AUD$50k or US$39k, based on a AUD$267m operating budget and reduced flying effort of 5250hrs, as opposed to an estimated 8204, mostly due to COVID.

The latest budget numbers released on Tuesday night show a reduced budget of AUD$216m and an increased flying effort of 11,831hrs for a CPFH of AUD$18k or US$14k. Perhaps we clever Aussies have cracked the code, Aussie fleet planners have increased the flight hours and reduced the annual sustainment budget from $267m to $216m. I see heads exploding in forums all over the internet including BF4C if the US$14k number is verified in the next budget cycle.


With what both of you are saying, it seems to me that Australia set a fixed operational budget for the F-35A having as a base CPFH of USD $25K and even your (operaaperta) post seems to show this.
For instance in the lets say 'first budget' the Australian F-35 fleet was supposed to fly more hours than it actually did because like you said, due to COVID restrains. This at first glance seems to look as if the CPFH was higher than it should - the USD $39K CPFH value that you mentioned - but in reality what seems to have happened (IMO) was that budget wasn't fully expended (less flights leads to less expenses and less of the budget is expended) and when a budget like this isn't fully expended then one of the usual things to happen is that the unexpended part of that same budget will be allocated to the next budget or to let's call it for the sake of simplicity, the 'second budget'. In this case the government will need to directly allocate less money to the 'second budget' which in this case will have the opposite effect of what we've seen in the 'first budget' or a perceived lower CPFH, in this case the USD $14K CPFH value that you mentioned.

And if we do a very simple average calculation between the $39K and $14K values we'll get a $26.5K value which is very, very close to the $25K value that Steve mentioned earlier.

Well, at least that's my perception of what's happening here but I could be wrong thou...


operaaperta wrote:Admittedly the Australian calculus for CPFH would not include the vast array of inputs that the USAF number encompasses. The JPO has stated in the past that the F35 CPFH captures every cost associated with the air and ground components of the platform/system, which has never been done in the past.


Well that situation seems to be far from being unique to the F-35. For instance the USAF's CPFH of their F-16 fleet is quite higher than the CPFH in most if not all NATO countries which also operates the F-16.
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Unread post17 May 2021, 11:26

magitsu wrote:Hornet flight hour cost for FiAF was 8200 euros (10k usd) in 2018 or 2019. BAe Hawk trainer 4700 euros for comparison.
https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/lei ... la/7439792


Yes, that is the average cost of just flying one for one hour. Basically that includes the fuel used and some smaller items like lubricants. Total O&S costs are something else and of course even those can be calculated differently. Like do you take into account salaries and infrastructure or not? However it seems that total O&S costs of Hornets are the basis of that maximum 10 percent of defence budget set as hard limit for the HX competititon. So total costs are probably something like 25,000 to 30,000 euros (30,000 to 36,000 USD) for each flight hour. Of course we have rather high fixed costs for each flight hour due to relatively low number of flight hours and demanding usage profile.
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Unread post18 May 2021, 02:39

hornetfinn wrote:
magitsu wrote:Hornet flight hour cost for FiAF was 8200 euros (10k usd) in 2018 or 2019. BAe Hawk trainer 4700 euros for comparison.
https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/lei ... la/7439792


Yes, that is the average cost of just flying one for one hour. Basically that includes the fuel used and some smaller items like lubricants. Total O&S costs are something else and of course even those can be calculated differently. Like do you take into account salaries and infrastructure or not? However it seems that total O&S costs of Hornets are the basis of that maximum 10 percent of defence budget set as hard limit for the HX competititon. So total costs are probably something like 25,000 to 30,000 euros (30,000 to 36,000 USD) for each flight hour. Of course we have rather high fixed costs for each flight hour due to relatively low number of flight hours and demanding usage profile.


Didn't check classic hornets but did some calculations to find an average fuel-burn and cost per hour for SH, a few years back, to compare it to the implied fuel burn per hour for an F-35A. This is how the SH fuel costs shaped up per hour, and also over an 8,000 hr life:

F/A-18F (plus 2 x EFT)
Fuel lb (2 x 480 gal tank) 28,170
Equiv liters used Jet 1A 13,744.80
Jet 1A $AUD / Liter $2.80
Cost of full fuel load $38,485
Absolute Range nm 1,977
Max Combat Range nm 1,632
Max Radius nm 816
Implied L burned per nm 8.42
Typical cruise speed nm/h 414.5 [It's low to approximate drag effects and maximum range flight operation.]
Fuel burned $/hr (AUD) $3,491 (or about $2,720 USD/hr)
300 flight hr/yr fuel cost $1,047,283
8,000 hr life fuel cost: $27,927,540

SH fuel cost is a small component of CPFH.

How F-35A compared:

Fuel burned $/hr (AUD) $2,221 (or about $1,732 USD/hr)

F-35A fuel cost was about $1,000 USD cheaper per hour than SH/F.

This is a ballpark estimate, but the scale and proportional differences will remain about correct, even if the true totals vary with different assumptions. So surprisingly the fuel cost was a relatively small part of CPFH.

Plus the advantage of running a single over a twin, was also not as great as I'd expected. That said, it was not small by any means. An F-35A was about $10.2 million AUD ($7.8 million USD) cheaper to provide fuel for over 8,000 hrs.

So the practical difference in life-cycle fuel costs between SH and F-35A was about 10 good standoff cruise missiles like a JASSM (or about 5 combat loads of them). Which is very significant if those hit high-value targets, which could cost your country a heck of a lot more during war if they were not destroyed. And why else would you be using such missiles to break lesser stuff? Well, unless you're addicted to making political statements with very expensive cruise weapons for no good, or smart reasons. Maybe smarter to use 96 x LGB from 48 x F-35A the next time you feel the urge to do such things. That 's a much greater show of force, and cheaper, and frankly a lot scarier, deterring and repeatable too, because F-35A + LGB can keep that up 24/7, for literally years.

Anyway, fuel cost was approx $1,732 USD per hr of the equally approximate $33,300 USD CPFH total, or ~5.2% of the excessively broadcast and yapped about CPFH number.
Last edited by element1loop on 18 May 2021, 03:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post18 May 2021, 02:59

element1loop wrote:
hornetfinn wrote:
magitsu wrote:Hornet flight hour cost for FiAF was 8200 euros (10k usd) in 2018 or 2019. BAe Hawk trainer 4700 euros for comparison.
https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/lei ... la/7439792


Yes, that is the average cost of just flying one for one hour. Basically that includes the fuel used and some smaller items like lubricants. Total O&S costs are something else and of course even those can be calculated differently. Like do you take into account salaries and infrastructure or not? However it seems that total O&S costs of Hornets are the basis of that maximum 10 percent of defence budget set as hard limit for the HX competititon. So total costs are probably something like 25,000 to 30,000 euros (30,000 to 36,000 USD) for each flight hour. Of course we have rather high fixed costs for each flight hour due to relatively low number of flight hours and demanding usage profile.


Didn't check classic hornets but did some calculations to find an average fuel-burn and cost per hour for SH, a few years back, to compare it to the implied fuel burn per hour for an F-35A. This is how the SH fuel costs shaped up per hour, and also over an 8,000 hr life:

F/A-18F (plus 2 x EFT)
Fuel lb (2 x 480 gal tank) 28,170
Equiv liters used Jet 1A 13,744.80
Jet 1A $AUD / Liter $2.80
Cost of full fuel load $38,485
Absolute Range nm 1,977
Max Combat Range nm 1,632
Max Radius nm 816
Implied L burned per nm 8.42
Typical cruise speed nm/h 414.5 [It's low to approximate drag effects and maximum range flight operation.]
Fuel burned $/hr (AUD) $3,491 (or about $2,720 USD/hr)
300 flight hr/yr fuel cost $1,047,283
8,000 hr life fuel cost: $27,927,540

SH fuel cost is a small component of CPFH.

How F-35A compared:

Fuel burned $/hr (AUD) $2,221 (or about $1,732 USD/hr)

F-35A fuel cost was about $780 USD cheaper per hour than SH/F.

This is a ballpark estimate, but the scale and proportional differences will remain about correct, even if the true totals vary with different assumptions. So surprisingly the fuel cost was a relatively small part of CPFH.

Plus the advantage of running a single over a twin, was also not as great as I'd expected. That said, it was not small by any means. An F-35A was about $10.2 million AUD ($7.8 million USD) cheaper to provide fuel for over 8,000 hrs.

So the practical difference in life-cycle fuel costs between SH and F-35A was about 10 good standoff cruise missiles like a JASSM (or about 5 combat loads of them). Which is very significant if those hit high-value targets, which could cost your country a heck of a lot more during war if they were not destroyed. And why else would you be using such missiles to break lesser stuff? Well, unless you're addicted to making political statements with very expensive cruise weapons for no good, or smart reasons. Maybe smarter to use 96 x LGB from 48 x F-35A the next time you feel the urge to do such things. That 's a much greater show of force, and cheaper, and frankly a lot scarier, deterring and repeatable too, because F-35A + LGB can keep that up 24/7, for literally years.

Anyway, fuel cost was approx $1,732 USD per hr of the equally approximate $33,300 USD CPFH total, or ~5.2% of the excessively broadcast and yapped about CPFH number.



hmm, now compare the F-15EX with the F-35..... :wink:
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Unread post18 May 2021, 03:22

Corsair1963 wrote:hmm, now compare the F-15EX with the F-35..... :wink:


Yup ... good point ... btw, I corrected a figure above as the difference in cost per hour between SH/F and F-35A is about $1,000 USD /hr (not the $780/hr I'd given).

Which should make the USN a fair bit happier about the F-35C arriving on decks in larger numbers from here, a lot more range with a LOT less fuel used to get it, per nm. And much more effective MQ-25A offload on top ... now add in that Western Pacific oriented EFT for Bk4 standoff strike capabilities ...

F-15EX? ............ phft!
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Unread post18 May 2021, 03:50

element1loop wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:hmm, now compare the F-15EX with the F-35..... :wink:


Yup ... good point ... btw, I corrected a figure above as the difference in cost per hour between SH/F and F-35A is about $1,000 USD /hr (not the $780/hr I'd given).

Which should make the USN a fair bit happier about the F-35C arriving on decks in larger numbers from here, a lot more range with a LOT less fuel used to get it, per nm. And much more effective MQ-25A offload on top ... now add in that Western Pacific oriented EFT for Bk4 standoff strike capabilities ...

F-15EX? ............ phft!


Plus, a future F-35C with either the GE XA100 or P&W XA101(Adaptive Cycle Engine) would be even better......
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