hb_pencil wrote:loke wrote:The reality is that you really don't know, unless you have access to information that is not public accessible -- let's wait and see what the costs will be around 2020 or so.
Lets not wait, because Saab certainly hasn't been in regards to Canada. They have been happy to give us misleading data on the aircraft's cost in order to create as much political disruption as possible. They have said on numerous occasions they never believed they had a chance, but have been happy to say all manner of things in order to further the political mess in our state.
And yes I do have perspective on the Gripen's costing that isn't out there in the public, based on my own work. Is it an exact amount? no, its a pretty rough estimate. I've shown here before ways you can come to that cost based on other contracts and information, like Brazil or Norway.
viewtopic.php?p=266783#p266783Certainly there are significant unknowns to that, I would admit. However, now you see Defence minister of a neighbouring country to Sweden (one of its closest in terms of relations), suggest the F-35 may well be as cheap as the Gripen. Do you really think he's going to say that if there is no chance that will happen, or based on no information whatsoever? Of course not. He's got a briefing, presumably undertaken by his MOD, which estimates the prices will be pretty close in the future. I assume he's got "not publicly available" information to make that assessment.
What I'm really getting at is that the claims by gripen supporters that the NG is some sort of wunderplane that will be 30~50% cheaper to acquire than the F-35 and 80% cheaper to operate just aren't factual at all. Might it be 10~15% difference? Maybe, and yes we can wait to see that. However 10~15% is enough to make some reasonable inferences about capabilities and force structure decisions that we can talk about.
1. If the Swedes were such lying bastards why are Hungary and Chzeckia happy to renew their contracts? And why does Thailand keep buying more Gripen in spite of their fiscal issues? Also, are you then saying that Saab managed to trick both the Swiss and Brazil into believing their "misleading" data? No doubt they have a marketing dept, and I would not trust what is coming from any marketing dept, including Saab's. However when they respond to an RFP it's a bit different.
2. They did not participate in Canada for obvious reasons, and they are not related to the cost of the a/c. Or do you also think that Rafale and Typhoon participate because they are "cheap" compared to the F-35?
3. Finland is not looking at buying a fighter currently. He is the MoD, his main focus currently is on the army first, navy second, and third comes upgrades of the AF. They are very, very far from doing even an RFI. Thus if you insist on believing the first version, then it boils down to yadayda-talk from a politician that simply don't have the numbers, and no time to even consider looking at them, for a purchase that is so far into the future for Finland. So to say that he "knows" that they cost the same is based on rather thin assumptions, to say the least.
4. I don't know how big the difference will be, that remains to be seen; clearly not as big as those "fanboys" you are so happy to fight against (where are they on this forum? If they are not here why do you keep arguing against their numbers?) Anyway this is again a useless discussions since the Gripen and the F-35 are adressing completely different markets (also see item 2 above).
5. The cost of the a/c will always be just a small percentage of the total; just look at how "expensive" those F-16 deals turn out to be even if the a/c is given for free.