Lightning Strikes [8 page PDF]

Lightning Strikes [8 page PDF attached]
Jan 2023 Gerard Keijsper

"The ever-increasing bite of the Lockheed Martin F-35 makes it a fearsome system. Gerard Keijsper looks at its armaments and the developments to come...."

Source: COMBAT AIRCRAFT JOURNAL Volume 24 No 01 JAN 2023

Lightning Strikes [8 page PDF attached]
Jan 2023 Gerard Keijsper

"The ever-increasing bite of the Lockheed Martin F-35 makes it a fearsome system. Gerard Keijsper looks at its armaments and the developments to come...."

Couple of observations...

- The recent announcement around Poland air weapons for F-35 presumably missed the deadline. They are getting SDB2 and AIM-9X as well.
- Denmark and Japan have yet to select a WVR for F-35? Both have ordered AIM-9X2. There are no plans to integrate AAM-5 for Japan
- Israeli weapons on the list are Python 5, Spice 1000lb and Spice 2,000lb.
- Israel will mainly use its US compatible weapons on F-35. No Delilah (understandable), Rampage, Gabriel V etc.
- IRIS-T and Derby are listed, not sure why, no indications any IRIS-T user will pay for integration, in fact Norway and Germany have both opted for AIM-9X instead of paying for integration. With Norway moving theirs to ground mounts as a SHORAD. Can't imagine anyone will want Derby, not even Israel,...its takes up a pylon and is inferior to AIM-120.
- Switzerland and Finland yet to select a BVR missile? - Both are Amraam users, but I guess their existing missiles might need replacement. LM's bid to Finland included new AIM-120...
- JNAAM is not listed. It should be as Japan (and probably the UK) will acquire. Far more credible than Derby/IRIS-T being on the list..
- JSM user list will probably grow. Australia is not listed...they've gone rather quiet recently, even though they're developing the RF seeker for it, they're getting LRASM as well...they may have cooled on JSM.
- LRASM is not listed? It is planned for integration c2027.
- UK munitions have, lets be honest, not sold well to F-35 users. No surprise on PWIV as many users already have JDAM and GBU-12 in stock. But Spear, Meteor and ASRAAM do appear to have missed the boat for a lot of users, with only Meteor's JNAAM derivative possibly getting traction (South Korea has ordered Meteor for KF-21 so it could get used by them as well). Hopefully Spear-EW, if it arrives, might turn that around. Slow integration might make things difficult though...

Finland hasn't really bought anything specifically for F-35 yet. The plan was to do so after this summer, like we could read from this 16 Feb article. No wonder really after what happened a week later.

The commander of the Air Force, Major General Pasi Jokinen, tells Turun Sanomat that the first weapons packages for the F-35 are to be purchased in the middle of this year, probably after the summer.

–  First, it is important to acquire air-to-air capabilities, as they will be needed in the phase of initial operational performance in 2028. At that time, one new squadron will replace the Hornet in the air defense mission. The Hornet is doing air-to-ground missions until the very end, meaning that the air-to-ground weapons will only be replaced in the second phase.

Jokinen states that weapons are constantly evolving and therefore it makes sense to wait before making all purchases. All the weapons to be acquired are supposed to be in Finland at the end of 2030 or soon after.

According to Jokinen, SDB II glide bombs in particular would improve Finland's performance. They can home in on a moving target.

– SDB II is able to adapt better than our current weapons. We already have weapons that can target specific locations, but they are not able to adapt if the target is not exactly in the place indicated by the coordinates, Jokinen tells TS.

https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/a/ts-f-35- ... topommeja/
Instead Hornet just got greenlit for 40x AIM-9X-II and 40 JSOW.

Based on that old source, we can still expect Air to Air being the first F-35 priority. It's interesting that almost nobody has picked their medium range option yet, 9X-II+ being the only significant commitment.

Finland is likely to buy SDB II too. Cruise missiles will be bought, but I see no clear indication whether JASSM-ER or JSM gets the nod. Almost certain that both is not an option.

JSOW pick for the Hornets probably now fulfills that moving target niche.

Next big ticket item in this realm should be in early 2023 when medium range surface to air system is selected. It's either Stunner / David's Sling, or more likely Barak MX with possibly multiple missiles (most performing one being LRAD ER). Barak is seen as the more likely because it has actually sold somewhere else unlike David's Sling. That will then allow the rest of air defense future plans be finalized with the F-35 picks.

Based on that old source, we can still expect Air to Air being the first F-35 priority. It's interesting that almost nobody has picked their medium range option yet, 9X-II+ being the only significant commitment.

Lots have AIM-120C variants still. But AIM-132 definitely goes into the medium ranged bucket...

Most won't bother with 3 missile types. There will be WVR and BVR and thats it, quite a few have AIM-9X/9X2 that have lots of life yet so won't purchase more until replacement is required.

Lightning Strikes [8 page PDF attached]
Jan 2023 Gerard Keijsper

"The ever-increasing bite of the Lockheed Martin F-35 makes it a fearsome system. Gerard Keijsper looks at its armaments and the developments to come...."

Source: COMBAT AIRCRAFT JOURNAL Volume 24 No 01 JAN 2023

That chart is inaccurate regarding some air-to-ground weapons when it comes to Canada.
Canada also has the GBU-12, GBU-38 and GBU-49 (besides GBU-31).
On top of this, Canada also has the JSOW-C.

Here (GBU-12, GBU-31, GBU-38 and GBU-49):
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... statistics

Here (JSOW-C):
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... et-upgrade

That chart is inaccurate regarding some air-to-ground weapons when it comes to Canada.
Canada also has the GBU-12, GBU-38 and GBU-49 (besides GBU-31).
On top of this, Canada also has the JSOW-C.

Here (GBU-12, GBU-31, GBU-38 and GBU-49):
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... statistics

Here (JSOW-C):
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... et-upgrade

It's definitely got some bits that are wrong. Kit that has previously been ordered and is operational on existing types is a weak point.

Has anyone seen any evidence of the Israeli's trialing anything else yet? I'm not a believer, like some are, that the Israeli's have some sort of secret sauce that magically gets new weapons integrated....they only have 1 test aircraft after all, it can only do so much and most of its time will be dedicated to Israeli specific battle management and EW tests...I could buy them integrating the Spice series of munitions as it has characteristics that they might find useful in their environment. But Python 5? Why? Most would agree its inferior to AIM-9X that they already have, it would cost a lot of money to integrate and there is no-one else who will buy it for F-35...same with Derby.

I suspect we could do a better job here on the weapons list for F-35 operators...

Has anyone seen any evidence of the Isareli's trialing anything else yet? I'm not a believer, like some are, that the Israeli's have some sort of secret sauce that magically gets new weapons integrated....they only have 1 test aircraft after all, it can only do so much and most of its time will be dedicated to Israeli specific battle management and EW tests...I could buy them integrating the Spice series of munitions as it has characteristics that they might find useful in their environment. But Python 5? Why? Most would agree its inferior to AIM-9X that they already have, it would cost a lot of money to integrate and there is no-one else who will buy it for F-35...same with Derby.

I think we'll see some of the most important Israeli air-to-ground weapons integrated in the F-35, being Spice one of such examples.
But I fully agree with you that it's very unlikely that's we'll ever see any Israeli Air-to-Air missiles integrated in the F-35 for the reasons your mentioned. Derby will be even more unlikely than Python 5 to be integrated since the diference in quality between the Derby and the AMRAAM is much wider than between the Python 5 and AIM-9X (being AMRAAM and AIM-9X better/superior).

I suspect we could do a better job here on the weapons list for F-35 operators...

Yes, absolutely!