Russia-Ukraine War 2022

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hornetfinn

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Unread post21 Sep 2022, 10:03

zhangmdev wrote:So they have lost ten times more. but still we need (partial) mobilization to call up 300k reservists. The 2nd best military cannot obsorb such moderate losses. Sure. 8)


This is getting dumber and dumber... :roll: It definitely starts to sound like the end for Russian armed forces in Ukraine is getting closer and closer. Not very good thing for Putin at all I bet...
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zhangmdev

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Unread post21 Sep 2022, 10:41

When Czar Nicholas II signed the order of general mobilization, did he know that he and his family had less than 4 years to live? Russia does not take military defeat gracefully. Putin reached a compromise to appease both sides, but this half measure placates nobody. Either to admit defeat and retreat to stop this bloodletting, or to declare total war and expand the conflict to solve the problem, he can do neither. This is already out of his control.

To those who believe they are invincible because of some superweapon, be careful what you wish for.

+

"To Berlin"!? Sure. 8)
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BMP-1 to Berlin
Last edited by zhangmdev on 21 Sep 2022, 10:54, edited 1 time in total.
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mmm

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Unread post21 Sep 2022, 10:48

Here's the joke, there will be 300k reservist who didn't join through the high profile campaign offering great financial incentives last half a year, too scared to dissent and resist conscription, will bravely fight in Ukraine in positions suffered the most casualties necessitate replenishing. :D
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ricnunes

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Unread post21 Sep 2022, 20:18

hornetfinn wrote:
milosh wrote:
mixelflick wrote:What piece of Russian military hardware is working well, or even as advertised?


Iskanders, BMPTs and T-90M

Iskanders are hard for SAM to down.

No BMPT destroyed, I mean if you don't pack it with highly explosive rounds no wonder why they don't go kaboom, also it is quite hard to be hit it because of narrow turret which is in fact RCWS . You can hit it easy with 30mm autocannon but that is ordinary IFV vs IFV with beef up tank chassis armor. Something which crew of ordinary IFV will probable avoid.

T-90M is much safer then other tanks used in war. One hit with friendly tank from point blank range didn't launch turret in air.


Yeah, agree with that although I'm not sure how many BMPTs and T-90Ms there have been in Ukraine though. I'd add that mostly the basic stuff like Russian tube and rocket artillery systems have worked pretty well but they seriously lack precision guided ammo for them and their fire control is slow. Their SAMs work well against Soviet and Russian 4th gen aircraft but seem to struggle against more difficult targets like HARMs, GMLRS rockets and drones.


Again, I agree with you hornetfinn!

One cannot reach the conclusion that BMPT's or T-90M's have been working well or as "advertised" since there are certainly very few of these being used in combat in Ukraine compared to BMP-2's, BMP-3's, T-72's, T-80's and even T-90A's.
Moreover if we look at the T-90M that was destroyed a few months ago we can clearly see that the turret detached from the hull when the tank was destroyed (by a Carl Gustav, BTW!). So that doesn't look good for the T-90M although this is only a single example/situation.

Iskanders seem to have been working as advertised, at least "on paper" but I wonder how many of these missiles misfired or didn't reach the intended target because of failures? Or resuming, what's the actual Iskander success rate?

I fully agree with you about the (Russian) artillery. This has also IMO been the Russian weapon system that worked the best for the Russians. It was the artillery that allowed the Russians to take the entire (or almost entire) Lugansk Oblast or even Mariupol earlier on.
Fortunately and like you said, the Russian artillery systems lack precision guided rounds.

And I also fully agree with you about the Russian SAM systems.

BTW, another Russian system that apparently have been showing some very good success lately is the BMP-3 but only those that were captured by the Ukrainians and put to use by them (Ukrainians) :wink:
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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zhangmdev

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Unread post22 Sep 2022, 04:36

Units of VDV 76th Guards Air Assault Division counterattacked in Kherson, pushing UKR out of Pravdyne. UKR suffered losses of armor.

+

Big prisoner exchange:

200+ Azovstal defenders (108 servicemen of Azov) for Viktor Medvedchuk
5 Azovstal commanders for 55 Russian POWs
foreign fighters from US, UK, Morocco, Croatia, Sweden

A lot of famous and important people captured at Mariupol are freed, including the pregnant medic, "Bird", "photographer", etc

Azov commanders have to stay in Turkey for the duration of the war.

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Kupyansk is still being shelled.

https://news.sky.com/video/no-jobs-no-m ... e-12702893

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Saudi broke the deal of release of foreign fighters.

https://news.sky.com/video/pows-release ... a-12702930
Last edited by zhangmdev on 22 Sep 2022, 09:24, edited 2 times in total.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post22 Sep 2022, 05:49

Some very interesting info about the aerial warfare over Ukraine:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-surface-to-air-missiles-have-wreaked-havoc-on-russian-aircraft

Russia’s failure to target Ukrainian integrated air defenses at the outset of hostilities in February have cost it at least 55 fixed-wing combat aircraft, while about 80 percent of Ukraine’s Air Force remains intact according to a senior U.S. Air Force general.

Most if not all of those shootdowns were caused by Ukrainian surface-to-air missile (SAM) attacks on Russian aircraft, according to Gen. James Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa.

“We’re pretty sure all of those losses were due to surface-to-air missile attacks from Ukraine on the Russians, primarily SA-10 and SA-11s,” Hecker told The War Zone and other outlets on Sept. 19 at the Air Force Association’s annual Sea-Air-Space conference outside Washington, D.C. As The War Zone pointed out in this previous story, air defense systems are more critical to the defense of Ukraine than fighters.

“The Russians lost other aircraft, just recently they lost one on takeoff that crashed because of maintenance practices, not shot down,” Hecker said. “What’s not included in the 55 that I talked about are the ones that they lost on the ground.”


About SEAD:
Hecker said the Russian Air Force essentially neutered its fighter force by failing to locate and target Ukrainian air defenses early in the war.

“They weren’t really making a concentrated effort of going out and going after those integrated systems,” he said. “They were just sitting back, so it kind of took their fighters a little bit out of the fight. So, now what they’re doing is using their long-range bombers carrying cruise missiles … and firing those from outside of engagement zones.”


About GBAD tactics:
As is standard practice for air defense system operations, both sides of the conflict move their SAM batteries regularly and rarely stay in one spot for any length of time, Hecker said. That makes them difficult targets for air strikes even if they activate air defense radars or fire missiles.

“Even if they haven't shot, they're starting to move them every six hours, every 12 hours, for sure after they shoot most of the time,” Hecker said. “They move them right away on both sides. So, it becomes more and more difficult to try to target these things. But the good news is if they're moving they're not radiating. They're not doing their job.”



HARM impact:
Ukraine’s integration of the AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile, or HARM, onto its jet fighters has forced the Russians to move their SAM systems more often, especially when they activate a radar. HARMS detects, homes in on and destroys air defense radars by tracking their electronic emissions.

“I talked to the Chief of Staff for the Ukrainian Air Force. I talked to him a little bit ago and he was pretty excited,” Hecker said. “They were able to basically localize air superiority for a little bit with some tactics using HARMs and those kinds of things. And then be able to use some of their unmanned aircraft.”

Still, Russian troops recently brought down a Ukrainian Su-25M1 apparently with an OSA-AKM air defense system near Yehorivka in Donetsk Oblast.

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hornetfinn

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Unread post22 Sep 2022, 07:52

ricnunes wrote:I fully agree with you about the (Russian) artillery. This has also IMO been the Russian weapon system that worked the best for the Russians. It was the artillery that allowed the Russians to take the entire (or almost entire) Lugansk Oblast or even Mariupol earlier on.
Fortunately and like you said, the Russian artillery systems lack precision guided rounds.

And I also fully agree with you about the Russian SAM systems.

BTW, another Russian system that apparently have been showing some very good success lately is the BMP-3 but only those that were captured by the Ukrainians and put to use by them (Ukrainians) :wink:


Yes, we seem to agree a lot... :D

Russian artillery is mostly like a sledge hammer. It can hit very hard but lacks precision which limits the usefulness. For example one SA-10 battery was taken out by BM-30 Smerch MLRS in impressive display of firepower early in the war. However they don't have very good precision to take out point targets without really massive amount of launchers and ammo. There have been projects to make GMLRS equivalent systems or high-precision air-to-ground munitions, but these seem to be very low in numbers if they exist at all.

It's clear that Ukranians have been more successful overall using the exact same equipment or even much older versions of the same equipment to good effect while Russians have struggled. Just shows the value of training, skills and determination. There are huge amount of videos showing just how badly Russians have been using their tanks and other equipment.
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zhangmdev

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Unread post22 Sep 2022, 09:13

Vehicle of uncertain origin washed ashore in Crimea. RUS quickly destroyed it.

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The 93rd brigade firing captured 2S5 Giatsint 152mm SPG.
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milosh

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Unread post22 Sep 2022, 12:15

hornetfinn wrote:Yes, we seem to agree a lot... :D

Russian artillery is mostly like a sledge hammer. It can hit very hard but lacks precision which limits the usefulness. For example one SA-10 battery was taken out by BM-30 Smerch MLRS in impressive display of firepower early in the war. However they don't have very good precision to take out point targets without really massive amount of launchers and ammo. There have been projects to make GMLRS equivalent systems or high-precision air-to-ground munitions, but these seem to be very low in numbers if they exist at all.

It's clear that Ukranians have been more successful overall using the exact same equipment or even much older versions of the same equipment to good effect while Russians have struggled. Just shows the value of training, skills and determination. There are huge amount of videos showing just how badly Russians have been using their tanks and other equipment.


BM-30 did use gps rockets one or more were found in Ukraine failed to detonate I think but they have very small number of those rockets.

There is something really strange with Russian army, for example before war there were testing of diy slat armor by army and nii stali I think, they concluded how it need to be done but what you see on battlefield is nonsense, in fact some diy slat armors make at weapons more effective.

It is funny how they couldn't mass print instructions and also send word they will punish anyone which do slat armor on its own without look in instruction and do that way. For example some folks though slat armor is not good because it is spaced so they just welded thicker steel plates which allow heat penetrator to form at ideal distance from tank body :doh:
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zhangmdev

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Unread post22 Sep 2022, 13:55

hornetfinn wrote:...
It's clear that Ukranians have been more successful overall using the exact same equipment or even much older versions of the same equipment to good effect while Russians have struggled. Just shows the value of training, skills and determination. There are huge amount of videos showing just how badly Russians have been using their tanks and other equipment.


Both sides have such moments. Some commanders are incompetent. Green troops paniced under fire. Recently UKR suffered heavy losses during the offensive operations in Kherson region. Due to the conditions of the battlefield, and the concentration of strong RUS foces, such losses are inevitable. It is never an easy or one-sided fight.
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mixelflick

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Unread post22 Sep 2022, 15:42

There is no wonder weapon that gets Putin out of this. If he uses WMD, he'll only wind up being seen as a bigger war criminal than he already is. World opinion has been against him since day 1, and it'll only get worse for them. The sanctions are biting, and now everyday Russians are feeling it. They'll sacrifice like they did before, but the outcome won't be the same.

Ukraine is fighting for its life, its territory and its people. Russia isn't.

Unless and until that situation changes, the outcome remains predictable...
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Unread post23 Sep 2022, 03:42

mixelflick wrote:There is no wonder weapon that gets Putin out of this. If he uses WMD, he'll only wind up being seen as a bigger war criminal than he already is. World opinion has been against him since day 1, and it'll only get worse for them. The sanctions are biting, and now everyday Russians are feeling it. They'll sacrifice like they did before, but the outcome won't be the same.

Ukraine is fighting for its life, its territory and its people. Russia isn't.

Unless and until that situation changes, the outcome remains predictable...

Does Putin care?
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zhangmdev

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Unread post23 Sep 2022, 06:15

A number of videos of men, young and old, leaving by bus, van, train, plane, being blessed by priests, waving goodbye to families, drinking and laughing. Mothers crying. One official arguing: 'this is fight for the future'. The 'partial' mobilization is going on very well. Russia has betted the house on this. The consequences will be awful if it does not win.

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Another Ka-52 was lost. It kept flying for a while after hit by MANPADS, smoking badly before crash landed.

+

Shahed-136 started appearing in the south. Having a distinct noise. If spotted in time, they can be easily shot down. Claimed 5. Often came in pairs, one shot down, the other got through. More report of damages by those.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post23 Sep 2022, 09:37

milosh wrote:
hornetfinn wrote:Yes, we seem to agree a lot... :D

Russian artillery is mostly like a sledge hammer. It can hit very hard but lacks precision which limits the usefulness. For example one SA-10 battery was taken out by BM-30 Smerch MLRS in impressive display of firepower early in the war. However they don't have very good precision to take out point targets without really massive amount of launchers and ammo. There have been projects to make GMLRS equivalent systems or high-precision air-to-ground munitions, but these seem to be very low in numbers if they exist at all.

It's clear that Ukranians have been more successful overall using the exact same equipment or even much older versions of the same equipment to good effect while Russians have struggled. Just shows the value of training, skills and determination. There are huge amount of videos showing just how badly Russians have been using their tanks and other equipment.


BM-30 did use gps rockets one or more were found in Ukraine failed to detonate I think but they have very small number of those rockets.

There is something really strange with Russian army, for example before war there were testing of diy slat armor by army and nii stali I think, they concluded how it need to be done but what you see on battlefield is nonsense, in fact some diy slat armors make at weapons more effective.

It is funny how they couldn't mass print instructions and also send word they will punish anyone which do slat armor on its own without look in instruction and do that way. For example some folks though slat armor is not good because it is spaced so they just welded thicker steel plates which allow heat penetrator to form at ideal distance from tank body :doh:


It's seems to be that rampart corruption in Russia has resulted in current state of Russian armed forces. They are powerful and numerous on the surface but seriously rotten inside. Maybe higher tech systems have been good for corruption to occur without anyone noticing it. I think they also might not get good enough components from the West for things like BM-30 rockets and possibly can't manufacture such component themselves. It also seems like there is culture of indifference in Russian army (and society in general) which means that there is no dedication to solving problems and developing new solutions. So there are a lot of mundane things like using ancient maps or not having instructions for some things that could easily be solved or done more efficiently but there is no interest in doing so.
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Unread post23 Sep 2022, 09:48

https://telegra.ph/Rabota-NATO-protiv-R ... -VSU-09-22

Supposedly US intel product for Ukraine acquired through Russian hack. My smell test is that if it's been tempered with it's not entirely fabricated.
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