Russian F-35 equivalent at MAKS 2021?

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steve2267

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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 05:26

element1loop wrote:
steve2267 wrote:I do not see Russia willing to risk the ire of the Chinese by building and selling Checkmate to #2. Turkey probably doesn't have the money to fund it. IMO they are foolish to do it, after their Su-57 experience, but I could see India saying, "Look here Russia, this Su-57 is a fools errand, and we are not going to continue wasting rupees on it, but if you, Sukhoi, want to build us an aircraft that does X, Y, Z, we will help fund development and buy Z for this price."


Pretty good points but why can Korea or Turkey build a prospective 5th-gen, and India wouldn't build its own, using a European or North American engine?

India actually has its own ambitious 5th-gen production planning taking shape now, plus a Loyal-Wingman drone to go with it.


This is a fair counterpoint.

I was trying to answer the speculation "who might be the unspecified Checkmate partner/customer?" I cannot think who might be needing a "stealth" fighter other than those four listed. And of those four, only India would seem to have the money. (Well, Taiwan has the money, and might take Russia up on an offer, but... that would piss the USA off and China off...) And if the risk were far less than the Su-57 fiasco, then maybe India takes another bite at the Sukhoi apple.

One thing about India, they don't seem to have any qualms about having different types. They have Migs, Sukhois, (soon) Rafales, HAL's. I don't know if it is a "don't put all our eggs in one basket" mentality, or a "throw brown stuff on lots of walls and lets see what sticks" approach.

HAL-AMCA makes more sense to me as well, but of those four, the one that has the money and might bite, to me, would be India.
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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durahawk

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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 06:02

element1loop wrote:Procurement costs of F-35A with an HMD is $10 million cheaper than F-15EX. The bigger problem is Russian helmet display tech.


The F-15EX should have both JHMCS and the HUD, which personally I think is the ideal solution at the current technological state.

element1loop wrote:The Russians would be foolish to not push for HMD-ski like capability, to dramatically improve the odds of fighting other jets.


Agreed, and I almost certainly think they will offer as a capability to their potential customers. Putting a HUD in the aircraft allows them that flexibility to sell it with or without the HMD. The SU-57 has an HMD in development already that they can leverage. The point I was trying to make is not that HUD's are superior or even comparable to HMD's, but that HMD only solutions currently have their drawbacks and I think the Russians recognize that. After all, the Russians were early adopters of HMD's and fielded them on the Mig-29 much earlier than most Western fighters had the capability.

element1loop wrote:Engineering solutions. And not a problem at all for weapons with own sensor and datalink cueing. i.e. almost everything but the gun.


Sure, and for what it's worth, I think that engineering solution is already in the works (I.E. have the jet do the aiming for you):
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/z/death-claw-new-way-speed-development

I suspect the HMD's will present a problem with targeting rockets as well as guns. Rockets sound counterintuitive to a 5th gen, but they are cheap and who knows what potential African countries will want to put on this thing. I also wouldn't be completely surprised if the Marines pay to integrate APKWS on the F-35 at some point.
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 06:12

durahawk wrote:.

Agreed, and I almost certainly think they will offer as a capability to their potential customers. Putting a HUD in the aircraft allows them that flexibility to sell it with or without the HMD. The SU-57 has an HMD in development already that they can leverage. The point I was trying to make is not that HUD's are superior or even comparable to HMD's, but that HMD only solutions currently have their drawbacks and I think the Russians recognize that. After all, the Russians were early adopters of HMD's and fielded them on the Mig-29 much earlier than most Western fighters had the capability.



The Russians were early adopters of HMS, which isn't the same thing as a JHMCS much less an HMD.
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 06:58

wrightwing wrote:
durahawk wrote:.

Agreed, and I almost certainly think they will offer as a capability to their potential customers. Putting a HUD in the aircraft allows them that flexibility to sell it with or without the HMD. The SU-57 has an HMD in development already that they can leverage. The point I was trying to make is not that HUD's are superior or even comparable to HMD's, but that HMD only solutions currently have their drawbacks and I think the Russians recognize that. After all, the Russians were early adopters of HMD's and fielded them on the Mig-29 much earlier than most Western fighters had the capability.



The Russians were early adopters of HMS, which isn't the same thing as a JHMCS much less an HMD.



Clearly, the LTF is going to be a real "low cost" 5th Generation Fighter. Assuming they can partners to help fund the program?
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 07:29

Corsair1963 wrote:
wrightwing wrote:
durahawk wrote:.

Agreed, and I almost certainly think they will offer as a capability to their potential customers. Putting a HUD in the aircraft allows them that flexibility to sell it with or without the HMD. The SU-57 has an HMD in development already that they can leverage. The point I was trying to make is not that HUD's are superior or even comparable to HMD's, but that HMD only solutions currently have their drawbacks and I think the Russians recognize that. After all, the Russians were early adopters of HMD's and fielded them on the Mig-29 much earlier than most Western fighters had the capability.



The Russians were early adopters of HMS, which isn't the same thing as a JHMCS much less an HMD.



Clearly, the LTF is going to be a real "low cost" 5th Generation Fighter. Assuming they can partners to help fund the program?


Huh?
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 10:51

Russia Officially Unveils New Checkmate Fighter, But Performance Claims are Ambitious
21 Jul 2021 John A. Tirpak

"...Checkmate is not a natural Russian phrase; the term “shakh” is used in chess to put a player in “check,” and “mat” is declared after making the final, winning move. “Mat,” pronounced “maht,” is also used to refer to vulgar or obscene language. The Checkmate name appears to be a work of propaganda, designed for Western consumption....

...Unexplained transparencies on the side of the aircraft suggest a capability similar to the F-35’s Distributed Aperture System. There was no direct reference to a helmet that could take advantage of such a system, like that on the F-35....

...An Air Force spokesman did not have any comment about the Checkmate."

Photo: "A mirror reflects the body form of Russia’s new Checkmate fighter jet unveiled at the MAKS-2021 air show in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, July 20, 2021. Image from RT video." https://www.airforcemag.com/app/uploads ... ate_01.jpg (0.6Mb)


Source: https://www.airforcemag.com/russia-offi ... ambitious/
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Checkmate_01 forum.jpg
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 11:22

[quote="spazsinbad"][/quote] From PAGE 10 this thread...

MiG-21 Pilot OPs PDF: http://aviationarchives.blogspot.com/20 ... ating.html

PHOTOS: http://aviationarchives.blogspot.com/20 ... oject.html

Project Have Doughnut - Exploitation of the Mig-21
"Report on Project Have Doughnut - Exploitation of the Mig-21. Report from National Air and Space Intelligence Center."
https://www.docdroid.com/bMYBbSi/projec ... mig-21-pdf (2.3Mb)
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ricnunes

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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 12:06

durahawk wrote:The F-15EX should have both JHMCS and the HUD, which personally I think is the ideal solution at the current technological state.
...
The point I was trying to make is not that HUD's are superior or even comparable to HMD's, but that HMD only solutions currently have their drawbacks and I think the Russians recognize that.


Sorry but I have to disagree.
While it's obvious that HMD technology is much harder to master than HUD it's clear that its problems - and here, I gather that you're talking about the F-35 - are mostly if not all, solved by now.

Moreover "advanced HMD technology" isn't that 'new' as you may think. The AH-64 Apache attack helicopter have been using HMDs since "forever" (since the Apache was fielded in 1986, if I'm not mistaken).


durahawk wrote:After all, the Russians were early adopters of HMD's and fielded them on the Mig-29 much earlier than most Western fighters had the capability.


Well, what the Russians had as "early adopters" wasn't a HMD "per se". For instance these Russian "HMDs" did NOT display information that you'll find on a HUD such as speed, altitude, etc... These "pseudo-HMDs" (which you could find on Mig-29s, Flanker family, KA-50, etc...) were simply a sight (crosshair) which the pilot could use to aim and cue a sensor like the IR seeker of a short range Air-to-Air missile. Nothing too fancy.
Basically, what the Russians had and have is a HMS (Helmet Mounted Sight) and not a HMD (Helmet Mounted Display).
If I'm not mistaken the first "true HMD" (which could show information that you would find on a HUD) was the Apache one (which is called IHADSS).


durahawk wrote:I suspect the HMD's will present a problem with targeting rockets as well as guns. Rockets sound counterintuitive to a 5th gen, but they are cheap and who knows what potential African countries will want to put on this thing. I also wouldn't be completely surprised if the Marines pay to integrate APKWS on the F-35 at some point.


Well, Apache pilots don't have and never had any problems aiming and firing unguided rockets with great precision and they use HMDs (IHADSS) for that effect. So no, HMDs wouldn't or shouldn't have such problems. :wink:
Oh and by the way, the Marines do the same with their AH-1Z attack helicopters and UH-1Y utility helicopters (Thales "Top Owl" HMD).
Last edited by ricnunes on 22 Jul 2021, 15:27, edited 2 times in total.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 12:17

HMD on a helicopter is not comparable to an HMD in a 9G capable fighter.

The helicopter HMD doesn't risk snapping the neck of the pilot.
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 12:28

madrat wrote:HMD on a helicopter is not comparable to an HMD in a 9G capable fighter.

The helicopter HMD doesn't risk snapping the neck of the pilot.


AND??!
In case you haven't noticed I was replying to durahawk about potential 'projection' issues with HMDs which they potentially could not show information like the impact point of unguided rockets (or bombs or guns) with great or with the same precision as HUDs. I proved this to be wrong.

But and even so, what you say isn't a problem anymore with modern and miniaturized and thus lighter technology! F-35s (namely the F-35A) fly at 9Gs and with HMDs and the pilot necks are still intact! :wink:

What you're saying above kinda reminds of the "lightning problem" where F-35s "couldn't fly into thunderstorms"... :roll:
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 13:18

Most confusing jet ever..

Since they're only $30 million/copy, I ordered 2.

There's a base, medium and tricked out version. So this is like ordering a pizza?
If they can all supercruise w/AL-41, use superweapons and are LO w/data links, why should I pay extra for "the works" ?
If Russia orders just a token amount and I'm the only other customer, what kind of post sale service can I expect?
7x cheaper to operate than the F-35? Can I get that in writing and performance guarantees if that spec isn't hit?
Assuming I'll get what I ordered, when will it get here?

These are all legit questions any foreign air arm would pose. Other than question #1, I'm not confident at all Sukhoi can answer the rest (honestly, anyway). I'd need to know all of that and more, before putting my order in...
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 14:46

madrat wrote:HMD on a helicopter is not comparable to an HMD in a 9G capable fighter.

The helicopter HMD doesn't risk snapping the neck of the pilot.


Speaking of snapped necks weve seen what happens when Viper pilots punch out with those helmet mounted NVGs. I know Russians wont care, but for the US where we do, and where most of the fighting is done at night theres really only one way forward. HMDs are here folks, its just a matter of how we do them. JHMCS + NVG or a purpose built all in one like F-35. I much prefer F-35 method, but its not my neck. its better in nearly every way

Huds are easier, but the simple fact is the F-35 is miles ahead thanks to that helmet and its critical to making the F-35 effective and ergo in my estimate, critical to being considered fifth generation. Yes I know the F-22 has a HUD and no iron man helmet, but it's also not expected to have the amount of ground attack the F-35 does, and we know F-35 has more sensors.

The stuff they are talking about with FCAS will be even more HMDS Doing even more stuff in the cockpit. The simple fact is this genie can be improved, but it's not going back in the bottle and what F-15ex does is irrelevant as it's the old way anyway, and is of course a bizarre confluence of events as to why we are buying it at all. We will end up regretting it eventually but hey it's only money
Last edited by XanderCrews on 22 Jul 2021, 15:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 15:06

durahawk wrote:
rowbeartoe wrote:It looks like this Jet still will use a HUD? The F-35 rolled out roughly 15 years ago and one of the revolutionary designs to me is the helmet and no HUD.


For starters, HUDs are a lot simpler and cheaper. $400k custom fit helmets like those on the F-35 are probably a non-starter for most of the countries they are looking to sell this too.


its not just the helmet, its the system/computer. and yes that is part of being with the cool kids now.

the pilot also sits on a "million dollar seat" too, but I'll leave it up to people to sus out why it costs so much, and its not because it a gold toilet.

Aviation is not an area for the economically squeamish.

Wait, the Russians could save 1 million dollars by removing the ejection seat... Have they considered this?


Helmet mounted displays also introduce a lot of small alignment errors that can complicate the targeting of forward firing weapons. Even minor errors can have a significant impact on accuracy. A fixed HUD on the other hand, will generally keep its point of impact after calibration.


boy if theres anything Russia cares about too, its accuracy. I'm advocating HMDs for this thing from the position of survivability. HMD on F-35 maintains signature, creates SA, and is used to see enemy weapons envelopes.

if Russia wants to save a buck or two thats fine, but again its all about avionics wrapped in a stealth shell these days. Thats what matters.



A HMDS is not part and parcel for a Fifth Gen by any means. The Raptor also has a fixed HUD afterall.


Technology didn't exist to do HMD with Raptor, and it didn't even have helmet cueing at all since they ran out of money. JHMCS equipped hornets and F-16s have better helmets. F-22 didn't even get queuing until 12 years after it was in service after it was added retroactively.

F-22 kind of reminds of the F-14, it was the earliest teen fighter, and still had some bizarre "old school" quirks to it, stuff that none of the other teen series fighters had. moreover, like F-14 it looks like F-22 is first on the chopping block for its generation. F-14 compared F-16 makes Tomcat look primitive. even comparing the cockpits between F-14A and F-18A is a helluva an eye opener. F-14 cockpit was "F-4+" and the F-22 is "F-16+": HUD, buttons, lots of cockpit displays. compare that to F-35-- giant touch screen. and then look at who is emulating what. Boeing is falling over themselves to do the same with Super Hornet. Brazil is insisting on it for their Gripens. We aren't going back to MFDs. and speaking of F-15EX, have you seen what they did with its cockpit?

I've learned not to bet against tech in the world of aviation. We didn't rip off the pylons on F-4s and put 50 cals in the wings after the poor performance of missiles, we improved the missiles.
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 15:41

mixelflick wrote:Most confusing jet ever..

Since they're only $30 million/copy, I ordered 2.

There's a base, medium and tricked out version. So this is like ordering a pizza?
If they can all supercruise w/AL-41, use superweapons and are LO w/data links, why should I pay extra for "the works" ?
If Russia orders just a token amount and I'm the only other customer, what kind of post sale service can I expect?
7x cheaper to operate than the F-35? Can I get that in writing and performance guarantees if that spec isn't hit?
Assuming I'll get what I ordered, when will it get here?

These are all legit questions any foreign air arm would pose. Other than question #1, I'm not confident at all Sukhoi can answer the rest (honestly, anyway). I'd need to know all of that and more, before putting my order in...


Well we don't know can all versions super cruise, because they aren't clear about that, from logical pov only with AL-51 it can super cruise.

As I see it base version can't super cruise (AL-41 engine), doesn't have advanced AESA radar, don't have EOTS and I wouldn't be surprise RAM is lower quality for example RAM used for Su-35, maybe not even TVC.

That version cost 30millions dollars (export). Sukhoi saw empty market and decide to gamble. I mean how many private fighter projects succeed that is big gamble but this time they really have nice chance because for 30million you can get new JF-17 block 3 (still in development) or second hand JAS-39, F-16, MiG-29.

What you would buy? New JF-17/second hand 4gen fighter or Checkmate? Of course Checkmate.

They also have nice chance with medium version because I doubt it would cost more then 50 million again no real competitor in that price level.

Only full version would have stiff competition in form of J-31 and KF-21 block 3. F-35 is already saturated market so I doubt there is some new big market for it. Now you have countries which aren't US ally and because of politics or demend for transfer of tech F-35 doesn't have huge chances there.

Btw base and medium/full version sound like something ideal for Iran. Base version to replace F-4 and F-5 and medium/full to replace F-14.

Iran got some nice amount of dollars not so long ago how knows maybe they are shadow buyer which influence checkmate design as Yuri Borisov said?

And how knows maybe UAE or KSA decide to premitive act and not allow that to happen? I think trailer could be mostly true with Middle East buyer there countries will want Checkmate for their AF or to deny opponent AF to get one.
Last edited by milosh on 22 Jul 2021, 16:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post22 Jul 2021, 16:29

milosh wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Most confusing jet ever..

Since they're only $30 million/copy, I ordered 2.

There's a base, medium and tricked out version. So this is like ordering a pizza?
If they can all supercruise w/AL-41, use superweapons and are LO w/data links, why should I pay extra for "the works" ?
If Russia orders just a token amount and I'm the only other customer, what kind of post sale service can I expect?
7x cheaper to operate than the F-35? Can I get that in writing and performance guarantees if that spec isn't hit?
Assuming I'll get what I ordered, when will it get here?

These are all legit questions any foreign air arm would pose. Other than question #1, I'm not confident at all Sukhoi can answer the rest (honestly, anyway). I'd need to know all of that and more, before putting my order in...


Well we don't know can all versions super cruise, because they aren't clear about that, from logical pov only with AL-51 it can super cruise.

As I see it base version can't super cruise (AL-41 engine), doesn't have advanced AESA radar, don't have EOTS and I wouldn't be surprise RAM is lower quality for example RAM used for Su-35, maybe not even TVC.

That version cost 30millions dollars (export). Sukhoi saw empty market and decide to gamble. I mean how many private fighter projects succeed that is big gamble but this time they really have nice chance because for 30million you can get new JF-17 block 3 (still in development) or second hand JAS-39, F-16, MiG-29.

What you would buy? New JF-17/second hand 4gen fighter or Checkmate? Of course Checkmate.

They also have nice chance with medium version because I doubt it would cost more then 50 million again no real competitor in that price level.

Only full version would have stiff competition in form of J-31 and KF-21 block 3. F-35 is already saturated market so I doubt there is some new big market for it. Now you have countries which aren't US ally and because of politics or demend for transfer of tech F-35 doesn't have huge chances there.

Btw base and medium/full version sound like something ideal for Iran. Base version to replace F-4 and F-5 and medium/full to replace F-14.

Iran got some nice amount of dollars not so long ago how knows maybe they are shadow buyer which influence checkmate design as Yuri Borisov said?

And how knows maybe UAE or KSA decide to premitive act and not allow that to happen? I think trailer could be mostly true with Middle East buyer there countries will want Checkmate for their AF or to deny opponent AF to get one.


Image

if is just a matter of cheaper/better then Russian fighters would be dominating the market, but its a lot more complicated like that.

We are also going on assumptions. I can't believe that no matter how many times we get burned, people still rush headlong in the fire of big, giant, amazing promises for programs that are in their infancy. Speaking of infants, most programs their first few years take lots of money in, and only produce poop. bear that in mind.

We should be looking at this from a very pessimistic, or at the least skeptical point of view. I don't believe they are planning on doing multiple versions necessarily either. I think they are putting variants out there to see what people want, and then they will buy that first. The alternative to that goes like this:

Russia will develop multiple variants simultaneously (JSF?) and thats going to require a lot of money

or more likely,

Russia will propose 3 variants, pick 1, and then if someone wants the other variants they will be on the hook for development costs.

So if Eritrea picks the cheapest thing thats where the money goes, but then the UAE wants the fancy version, And Russia will say "you bet, you just have to pay for the development, because we aren't going to throw billions at something that may not sell"

I can't imagine Russia honestly paying triple the development costs out of the kindness of their hearts in the hope that if they build it, someone will buy it. Hows that been working out for Gripen E?

We don't know how much money the secret investor is prepared to spend. PAKFA would tell us they may not stick around either.

We are asking the wrong questions. This always happens with development programs. We should not be asking "will it go over budget?" we should be asking "what is the plan for when this goes over budget?"

for some reason we pretend that just because the last 20 fighter programs went over budget and took longer, theres no reason to think this will happen again... I mean what are the odds the same thing that always happens will happen again? nearly 100 percent.



From The Black Swan:

Dr. John who is regarded as a man of science and logical thinking

Fat Tony who is regarded as a man who lives by his wits

A third party asks them to "assume that a coin is fair, i.e., has an equal probability of coming up heads or tails when flipped. I flip it ninety-nine times and get heads each time. What are the odds of my getting tails on my next throw?"

Dr. John says that the odds are not affected by the previous outcomes so the odds must still be 50:50.

Fat Tony says that the odds of the coin coming up heads 99 times in a row are so low that the initial assumption that the coin had a 50:50 chance of coming up heads is most likely incorrect. "The coin gotta be loaded. It can't be a fair game."




the funny thing is I think of Putin as more of a fat Tony type.
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