Very grim news for the Indian Air Force

Asking India to reduce pensions is like asking Americans to give up social security. Not going to happen.

its going to happen when it runs out.

Problem with Chinese IL-78 is operational status, because they aren't brand new as Indian tankers but ones build in 1980s.

Agreed on built dates.
MSN 0073478359/59-10 built Jan 1, 1987 – PLAAF s/no 20641
MSN 0073479400/60-10 built Feb 1, 1988 – PLAAF s/no 20642
MSN 0063469066/52-07 built Sep 30, 1986 – PLAAF s/no 20643

China signed a contract with Ukraine ~2011/2012 to refurbish/re-manufacture the 3 and was delivered ~2014.
Agreed IAF ones are new builds in 2003/2004.

H-6 fleet status is also questionable for example in Indian Defence Review (Jan-Mar 2019) Vol 34.1 they mentioned only 10 are operational and weak tanker fleet is biggest problem for PLAAF to conduct meaningful operations against India.

All of China's tanker bases are far away from India.I think way more than 10 H-6U/DUs operational, tracking serials.

Y-20 tanker? Very likely but we need to see first prototype, then they need to build nice number of them to have decent tanker fleet. IAF also plan to buy more tankers, six IL-78 I think.

Spotted 2018 in production green. That's why a lot of online chatter expecting service entry soon.

Ps @Xandercrews, won't run out as long as one can borrow.

Y-20 tanker? Very likely but we need to see first prototype, then they need to build nice number of them to have decent tanker fleet. IAF also plan to buy more tankers, six IL-78 I think.

"Artist impression" - Y-20A is also expected to be converted into a tanker replacing the obsolete H-6U, which might feature a flying boom system for refueling J-20.

QUOTE:

Tanker variant of China’s Y-20 set to emerge: report

“The Y-20 cargo plane has variants like the Y-20 aerial tanker and Y-20 AEW aircraft,” he says. “I believe that people will see our Y-20 aerial tanker debut on the battlefield in the not too distant future.”

Global Times adds that the tanker variant will carry 90t of fuel, three times more than the smaller H-6 that China uses for tanking missions. It is likely to appear before the AEW version.

A tanker based on the Y-20 would use the hose-and-drogue refueling method. It is understood that China is considering having a refueling pod under each wing, with possibly a third hose deploying from the aircraft’s tail.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing ... 58.article


Y-20 AEW and Tanker Variants To Appear Soon
by Chen Chuanren
February 27, 2020, 12:33 PM

China is expected to publicly unveil the tanker variant of the Xian Y-20 military transport aircraft soon, while an airborne early warning and control system (AWACS) version is in development. The commander of an air force aviation regiment of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Western Theater Command, Teng Hui, confirmed to Chinese state media the existence of the two variants and that the public will see the tanker version in the “not too distant future.”

The introduction of the domestically built Y-20 tanker—most likely to be designated YU-20 or Y-20U—into the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) will give the air arm the strategic tanking capability it lacks. Currently, the bulk of tankers are Xian HY-6s, based on the Tu-16 bomber airframe, with a fuel payload of only around 30 tons. The PLAAF also has the Ilyushin Il-78MP in service with around 90 tons payload, but with only three on strength it is not able to exercise its full potential in the PLAAF. The first indications of a Y-20 tanker variant emerged in November 2018 when satellite imagery showed under wing refueling pods on a Y-20.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ppear-soon


PLUS....

https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/chinas-y- ... s-officer/
https://asianmilitaryreview.com/2020/03 ... -variants/
http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/202 ... 752203.htm
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ppear-soon

First they need to have prototype, then they need to test it and then to start producing it.

If we look how "many" Y-20 they build until now I really doubt China will have decent tanker fleet for quite a while. So when they finally have tankers in good numbers IAF will have stealths.

We are talking about 2030s, when IAF would have lot more options. ACMA isn't dead either, and if buying LCA instead MMCA
will increase funds for ACMA that is very good. Btw I think it is mistake they still pushing Tejas Mk2 (which is like Gripen E) they need to stop funding it while increase funding for ACMA. Make it two engined fighter with internal weapon bay using tech developed for Tejas Mk2.

Also in late 2020s, IAF could consider matured F-35 with sidekick and new engine.

First they need to have prototype, then they need to test it and then to start producing it.

If we look how "many" Y-20 they build until now I really doubt China will have decent tanker fleet for quite a while. So when they finally have tankers in good numbers IAF will have stealths.

We are talking about 2030s, when IAF would have lot more options. ACMA isn't dead either, and if buying LCA instead MMCA
will increase funds for ACMA that is very good. Btw I think it is mistake they still pushing Tejas Mk2 (which is like Gripen E) they need to stop funding it while increase funding for ACMA. Make it two engined fighter with internal weapon bay using tech developed for Tejas Mk2.

Also in late 2020s, IAF could consider matured F-35 with sidekick and new engine.

India isn't going to have "stealth" for a very long time. Unless something "drastically" changes and that appears unlikely....(sadly)

First they need to have prototype, then they need to test it and then to start producing it.

If we look how "many" Y-20 they build until now I really doubt China will have decent tanker fleet for quite a while. So when they finally have tankers in good numbers IAF will have stealths.

We are talking about 2030s, when IAF would have lot more options. ACMA isn't dead either, and if buying LCA instead MMCA
will increase funds for ACMA that is very good. Btw I think it is mistake they still pushing Tejas Mk2 (which is like Gripen E) they need to stop funding it while increase funding for ACMA. Make it two engined fighter with internal weapon bay using tech developed for Tejas Mk2.

Also in late 2020s, IAF could consider matured F-35 with sidekick and new engine.

How many more options with India have in the 2030's?

The SU-57 timeline doesn't inspire confidence, especially when the Indians 1.) Pulled out of the project and 2.) Have stated repeatedly the require many modifications to the "stock" airframe. The other usual suspects will all be there: Typhoon, Rafale, SH, F-16IN, Gripen E and perhaps the F-15EX from the west. No way they'll be offered the F-35. But they will/supposedly have looked at all of these, and opted instead for Tejas.

From Russia? The same old same old, with perhaps some new bells and whistles: The Mig-35, SU-35, more updates to SU-30MKI. I rather doubt the South Korean or Japanese 5th or 5.5 gens are really happening. Ditto for the Tempest.

So they'll have plenty of Tejas flying of various models, replacing Mig-21's, 27's etc. But their high end air superiority aircraft will be very long in the tooth, no stealth equivalent to what's being fielded in China or worse, what the PAK will get as a result of their joint Chinese/PAK project.

If I were them, I'd be cozying up to the US as much as I could and pour all of my expertise into drones and SAM's/Air Defense. If you think about it, they're not unlike Iran. Geriatric air force due to inability to build their own, can't buy anything decent due to sanctions (or in their case, unique political circumstances)

Not unlike Iran, although I concede their air force isn't nearly as old (today). 10-15 years from now though, it'll sure be looking like it..

Japan's F-3. They can insert Indian inputs (electronics, avionics, EW/RWR etc). The engines will not be subject to any US license. Modi has been meeting Abe to expand ties. Easy to meet offset requirements with Japanese industry already setting up in India. Can extract ToT for the AMCA project. Japan doesn't embargo anyone (except Koreans). Will be available before 2030 and Japan has stated they want to export the fighter. Politically palatable, only question is costs.

Japan's F-3. They can insert Indian inputs (electronics, avionics, EW/RWR etc). The engines will not be subject to any US license. Modi has been meeting Abe to expand ties. Easy to meet offset requirements with Japanese industry already setting up in India. Can extract ToT for the AMCA project. Japan doesn't embargo anyone (except Koreans). Will be available before 2030 and Japan has stated they want to export the fighter. Politically palatable, only question is costs.

I don't see the F-3 being available before 2040. They don't even have a finalized airframe, power plant, avionics, EW, etc.... in mind yet, much less flight testing a prototype/test aircraft.

Its good to factor in some of the recent developments affecting the F-3 program. A new development was set up within ATLA to run the program (with a program director). Y11.1b (out of Y28b allocated for the F-3 project) will be spent (for FY 20 budget) to start concept design process for the aircraft) with Y7.6b on mission system integration. The new Kure no 2 plant is tooling up to produces parts for the XF9 engine. The new locally developed AESA radar has been showcased. Most of the technologies (except engine) appear mature.

When will F-2s start retiring?

India is going shopping for Russian MiG-29s, which is interesting as Russia itself is not procuring them except for one of its aviation display teams. It is also interesting that these are called MiG-29s, not MiG-35s. I wonder what this means for long term plans to acquire a larger set of western fighters than the 36 Rafales, for which delivery will start soon.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china-defence/india-clears-purchase-of-russian-combat-jets-worth-2-4-billion-idUSKBN2432E2

Don't see how this really helps the IAF let alone deters the PLAAF....