mixelflick wrote:So here we are, 9 pages later. Let's recap what we know to be true..
1.) The Russians won't be building a super-carrier anytime soon. Their current carrier is a joke, having limped back to port after losing a Mig-29 and SU-33 on her "cruise" out to Syria
Compared to a US Nimitz/Ford class? Not the same ballpark, it ain't the same league, it ain't even the same sport. There's a critical size threshold where a carrier is able to undertake simultaneous launch and recovery operations. The Kuznetsov is below this threshold, and US supercarriers are above it. Simple as that. Furthermore, the Kuznetsov doesn't have catapults, which means it can't launch fixed-wing AEW aircraft. That makes it a lot less strategically independent than a US supercarrier.
But if you compare the Kuznetsov to other medium-sized carriers like the HMS Queen Elizabeth, INS Vikramaditya or even the Charles de Gaulle, it's not a bad ship. The biggest problems are the lack of crew experience and that the ship is badly in need of overhaul.
2.) The SU-33 has been passed over in favor of Mig-29K's
Not exactly. All in-service SU-33s are ancient, and it's not obvious that KnAAPO was even capable of making new ones. A lot of the initial development of the navalized Flankers was done in Ukraine, remember. In fact, the Chinese snagged a SU-33 prototype from Ukraine which they then reverse-engineered to make the J-15. The SU-33 has a fair number of unique parts from land-based Flankers, and those parts might have been sourced from Ukraine. It is entirely possible that the Russians
can't currently make new SU-33s. This was a big problem for Russian Federation forces after the breakup of the USSR. The plant that made all their heavy machine guns was in Kazakhstan, the plant that made their SU-25s was in Georgia, and the plant that made all their T-80UDs was in Ukraine.
More likely the MiG-29K contract was a way to keep the lights on and the doors open at MiG, and have at least
something that can fly off of their carrier. Their SU-33s are likely near the end of their service lives, and it might make more sense to keep MiG on life support than to develop a SLEP for the tiny SU-33 fleet.
3.) Hold the phone though: The plan was for navalised SU-57's too.
I'll believe it when I see it.
4.) Only problem with that is that we have a press release from Russians themselves - there will be no mass production. Just 12 examples ordered. I wonder how many of those 12 will be involved in sea trials? LOL
I strongly suspect that this was a sensationalized mis-translation of a single out-of-context quote, but we'll see. The production SU-27 is completely redesigned from the initial T-10 prototypes because Sukhoi wasn't happy with the initial results. This could be a similar situation.
The whole thing sounds like a giant fustercluck. They're making Mig-29K's which are obsolete before they're put together at the factory. The SU-57 project is having a tough time operating from runways, nevermind carriers. And the VTOL fighter is getting funded from, where.... ? This may be the best example of Russian "brochure weapons" and grandiose planning that amounts to... nothing I've ever seen.
The Russians were recently reaching out to the UAE as potential partners in a new fifth-generation fighter program. I could see Turkey as another potential partner, if Russia and Turkey are able to resolve their differences over the situation in Syria and Turkey can't partner with the UK (who have better tech).