AF Chief Hints at Retiring the F-22

Anything goes, as long as it is about the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor
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weasel1962

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Unread post08 Jun 2021, 01:45

Red herring. Every one of those F-22s just completed a structural repairs program designed to increase airframe life by 8000 hours. Now we are supposed to believe the USAF will junk them early… reminds me of how every single news outlet blindly reported that 247 F-22s had undergone the SRP. Not buying it.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post08 Jun 2021, 02:15

quicksilver wrote:“The oldest F-22A would be ~24 years young in 2030. RAAF F/A-18A will be ~40 years old when those leave service. IIRC F-35 is to have a 50 year service-life. But USAF needs NGADs in 2030 because ... er, ... because it will be both more capable, and way cheaper with no software issues at all, and will be able to defeat a capability which still won't exist until long after NGAD is shafted by the head of USAF in 2047 to make way for something even more capable and far cheaper ... with zero software issues.“

:thumb:



Apples and Oranges.....While, I don't see the F-22 retiring in the near future. I have my doubts that they will be around post 2030.
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airframe

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Unread post01 Jul 2021, 02:58

sferrin wrote:
tbarlow wrote:Air Force Chief Hints at Retiring the F-22 Raptor in Fighter Downsize

12 May 2021
Military.com | By Oriana Pawlyk
The U.S. Air Force wants to downsize from seven types of fighter jets or attack aircraft to a mix of four, including the A-10 Warthog close-air support aircraft, the service's top general said Wednesday[...]


And I thought the Navy were the stupid ones. :doh:


Sad to see USAF has continued to become more and more "chickified", now getting away from the premier 5th gen fighter on the planet to free up cash to do more "social work"!! I miss my old man every day, but I'm thankful he doesn't have to see this garbage... while I've been disgusted with Navy's reluctance to pony up and buy and fly the F-35C, nothing is more disgusting than a supposed fighter pilot selling the F-22 down the river, bunch of cry babies...
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Corsair1963

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Unread post27 Jul 2021, 04:08

Lockheed Martin Takes $225 Million Loss on Secret Aeronautics Program

July 26, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

Lockheed Martin took a $225 million loss on a classified developmental aeronautics program, company officers disclosed in a July 26 second-quarter results call with reporters, but the program is moving forward, and the company expects it to enter production.

Company officers also said the unit cost of the F-35A will likely go up in the next lot contract and that the program will be “rebaselined” over the next couple years with a more stretched-out delivery schedule, and signaled a phase-out to the U-2 spyplane. They also said they expect to close out any Federal Trade Commission concerns and conclude their planned acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne, announced last December, by the end of this year.

The charge on the classified program came after a May “deep dive” with government and company auditors, Lockheed Martin Chief Financial Officer Kenneth R. Possenriede said during the earnings call. About 40 percent of the cost of the secret project has already been spent, he noted, with the remainder “embedded in the new estimate to complete” the program.

Neither Possenriede nor CEO James D. Taiclet could provide many details about the project due to classification. Taiclet did refer to “all the customers”—plural—“that are going to utilize this,” suggesting multiple services will be buyers. The project is being done at Lockheed’s aeronautics division, versus its Space or Missiles and Fire Control units.

“It will be a good program for the Lockheed Martin Corporation,” Taiclet said.

The program “we think … will be successful from a schedule and performance standpoint, and it will ultimately turn into a production program. And we also think there are additional opportunities out there;” thus, “I think … there is still a very strong business case given these associate opportunities,” Taiclet said. “We feel comfortable” with the status of the program.

Neither Taiclet nor Possenriede connected the classified project to the Next-Generation Air Dominance program, which Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr told lawmakers last month will be a multirole fighter. In response to a question, Possenriede said the company is unable to talk about its work on NGAD, except to point out that the Air Force has said the F-35 will not be cut to pay for NGAD.

The charge caused Lockheed Martin’s earnings for the quarter to come in below expectations, and its per-share price fell three percent in the hours after the announcement.

Possenreide said a number of Lockheed Martin classified aeronautics and space programs are expected to grow and enter production.

“We see the classified portion of Lockheed Martin growing faster than the nonclassified portion,” he said. The company’s “Skunk Works” advanced development unit is going to be “a larger part of the aeronautics” business.

Taiclet said Lockheed Martin seeks to lead the industry in creating all-domain networks, starting with its own products—“the ones we control”—and making them “the leading-edge, and therefore, most attractive ways to allocate the budget in all the domains that we serve.” Lockheed Martin’s platforms will become “way more competitive, way more attractive, using the network effect to get more value for the money … irrespective of how much the top line grows.”

The goal of the U.S. military will be to build “a network effect as broadly as you can across, frankly, all the platforms out there, eventually. But we’re building a roadmap internally to Lockheed Martin because these are the platforms we can control. [We will] install, trial, demonstrate, and then produce these products. At the same time, … we’re open to collaborating with our industry partners.”

New systems “can and must have an open architecture,” he said. “This is a matter of leadership, and speed, and performance, and that’s where Lockheed Martin can take a great position going forward.”

Possenriede said the F-35 is “right now in the midst of a … production re-baselining” due to the pandemic and progress in getting the Tech Refresh 3 on Lot 15 and the Block 4 configuration in production with Lot 16. This year’s deliveries will be between 133 and 139 aircraft, he said, with specifics coming in October, after an agreement is reached with the Joint Program Office.

The plan was to build 169 F-35s in 2022, but it is “highly likely” that Lockheed Martin will build fewer, Possenriede said. “This re-baselining may take two to three years.”

The “production plateau”—the steady-state maximum rate, which Possenriede said is probably around 170 aircraft—will be “slightly pushed out to the right, and elongated, in the next couple of years.” This will present an “opportunity” for sustainment, he said. He also said Lockheed Martin expects to respond to a government request for proposals for performance-based logistics soon.

Taiclet said Lockheed Martin has invested $500 million to date to improve F-35 sustainability costs and has “personally met with each of the service Chiefs and the Chairman” of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to build support for a “cooperative” approach to getting the costs under control.

Lockheed Martin has reduced by 40 percent the sustainment costs “that we can control,” and “we’re going to shoot for another 40 percent over the next five years,” Taiclet said. Some 60 percent is “propulsion and military/government cost,” he added.

“If we don’t have an all-in strategy, together, to address this, we’re not going to hit the goals” of getting the operating cost to $25,000 per year by 2025, Taiclet asserted.

Possenriede said he’s hopeful that Lockheed Martin will be under some kind of performance-based logistics contract for the F-35 early in 2022. But “this is not likely to be a top-line enhancement play for us. That’s probably all embedded,” or baked-in cost. He said the F-35 sustainment business will expand sharply in a few years, when more than 1,000 of the fighters will be in service worldwide.

Switzerland’s order for 36 F-35s was a “big, big win for us,” Possenriede said, and the jet is well positioned in competitions in Finland and Canada, he said.

Lockheed Martin is in negotiations on the next lots of F-35s, and Possenriede said the B and C model sticker will likely stay the same or “continue to come down the learning curve.” But the A model used by the Air Force will probably rise, he said.

“The ‘A’ variant, … due to where we are in learning, with inflation and the added capabilities that they want on the aircraft, it is likely you’ll see a … modest increase in price versus where we are today.” Lockheed Martin aeronautics Executive Vice President Gregory M. Ulmer hinted at a price increase due to inflation and capabilities growth earlier this year.

Among other Air Force programs, the F-16 international sales backlog is 128 aircraft and will “continue to grow,” Possenreide said. Taiclet said the U-2 spyplane’s “sunset” is in the “not-too-distant future,” although the Air Force has gone back and forth about whether it plans to retire or retain the U-2 beyond the middle of the 2020s. Taiclet also said that while the F-22 “sunset” is in sight, it will still get updates and modifications, though not to the degree previously thought. The Air Force recently said it plans to start phasing out the F-22 in about 2030.

Taiclet said the last issues with the Federal Trade Commission regarding the company’s acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne are being wrapped up and he expects it to be completed by the end of the year. Lockheed Martin has made assurances that Aerojet Rocketdyne will remain a “merchant supplier” of solid rocket motors to anyone in the industry who wants to work with the company. The government had expressed concern that Lockheed Martin would exclude competitors from using Aerojet Rocketdyne products, a problem since only one other solid rocket motors supplier exists—Northrop Grumman’s Innovation Systems, formerly Orbital ATK.

https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-ma ... s-program/
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charlielima223

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Unread post28 Jul 2021, 22:59

It could be that by 2030 the F-22 will begin its retirement process, of course that all hinges on the NGAD development and maturity. A lot can happy in 9 years. The USAF F-15Cs were supposed to be phased out by the F-22 yet it is still flying today. More than likely I would guesstimate the F-22 will still be flying well into 2030 or even into 2040.

Whatever will eventually replace the F-22 will have to completely out do the F-22 in sensors, stealth, and kinematic performance. Even after 16 years since its IOC and with China and Russia developing their own 5th aircraft, the F-22 is still considered the most capable air-to-air platform.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post28 Jul 2021, 23:49

charlielima223 wrote:It could be that by 2030 the F-22 will begin its retirement process, of course that all hinges on the NGAD development and maturity. A lot can happy in 9 years. The USAF F-15Cs were supposed to be phased out by the F-22 yet it is still flying today. More than likely I would guesstimate the F-22 will still be flying well into 2030 or even into 2040.

Whatever will eventually replace the F-22 will have to completely out do the F-22 in sensors, stealth, and kinematic performance. Even after 16 years since its IOC and with China and Russia developing their own 5th aircraft, the F-22 is still considered the most capable air-to-air platform.



I have my doubts the F-22 will make 2030 let alone beyond that........... :|
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Unread post29 Jul 2021, 00:33

Corsair1963 wrote:
I have my doubts the F-22 will make 2030 let alone beyond that........... :|


Why?

Politics has a huge role in procurement and what stays and what is let go.

I point again to the historical example of the F-22 supposed to replace the F-15C fleet. It didn't because of politics. The A-10 is supposed to be completely phased out by now but its still putsing around (for better or worse) because politicians want to keep it in service.
Outside of politics there is the question of capability. Can the future NGAD deliver better capability in 9 years? None of us know what the aircraft looks like let alone how it is supposed to perform outside of some small drops and lots of guessing. The NGAD is supposed to have a bunch of evolutionary and revolutionary new tech and production processes. Think they can squeeze out a fully fledged production version aircraft ready for IOC in just 9 years? What will take over the roles and capabilities left behind by the F-22 if the NGAD isn't out yet (be it a prototype or production development type)? It wont be the venerable F-15C and its newest brethren the EX. F-35? The F-35 IS a great and very capable aircraft but it was never designed to be the air superiority/dominance fighter the F-22 IS. Phasing out the F-22 in hopes the F-35 can hold things down is like when the USN retired the F-14 thinking the Super Hornet could do the same for cheaper... doubt anyone honestly believes that.

Call me pessimistic or a realist but I doubt the NGAD will be remotely close to ready by 2030(ish).
Then again I could be wrong... a lot can happen in 9 years. Politics, people, budget, and economies change and dictate what is priority.
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Unread post29 Jul 2021, 05:20

charlielima223 wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
I have my doubts the F-22 will make 2030 let alone beyond that........... :|


Why?

Politics has a huge role in procurement and what stays and what is let go.

I point again to the historical example of the F-22 supposed to replace the F-15C fleet. It didn't because of politics. The A-10 is supposed to be completely phased out by now but its still putsing around (for better or worse) because politicians want to keep it in service.
Outside of politics there is the question of capability. Can the future NGAD deliver better capability in 9 years? None of us know what the aircraft looks like let alone how it is supposed to perform outside of some small drops and lots of guessing. The NGAD is supposed to have a bunch of evolutionary and revolutionary new tech and production processes. Think they can squeeze out a fully fledged production version aircraft ready for IOC in just 9 years? What will take over the roles and capabilities left behind by the F-22 if the NGAD isn't out yet (be it a prototype or production development type)? It wont be the venerable F-15C and its newest brethren the EX. F-35? The F-35 IS a great and very capable aircraft but it was never designed to be the air superiority/dominance fighter the F-22 IS. Phasing out the F-22 in hopes the F-35 can hold things down is like when the USN retired the F-14 thinking the Super Hornet could do the same for cheaper... doubt anyone honestly believes that.

Call me pessimistic or a realist but I doubt the NGAD will be remotely close to ready by 2030(ish).
Then again I could be wrong... a lot can happen in 9 years. Politics, people, budget, and economies change and dictate what is priority.


Why? Main reason is cost with such a small pool of aircraft. Which, are extremely expensive to operate, maintain, and upgrade.

This while the F-35 is being procured in vast numbers. Which, will be supported by large base of customers. The F-35 does just fine in the Air Defense / Air Superiority Role. As a matter of fact it already performs in that role...

As a matter of fact the F-35 won't have any serious challengers until after the arrival of the NGAD. So, again why do we need the F-22???
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Unread post29 Jul 2021, 14:37

The F-22 isn't going anywhere for awhile...

Small fleet, expensive? Yep. Has been since day 1. The point about politics is spot on too. The biggest reason it'll be sticking around?

You don't replace an aircraft until its successor is on the ramp...

The F-35 is a wonderful aircraft, but was never meant to replace the F-22. Just the opposite in fact, it was meant to complement it. USAF leadership has even said “If we don't keep F-22 Raptor viable, the F-35 fleet will be irrelevant”. The F-35 is not built as an air superiority platform. It needs the F-22,” says Hostage to Air Force Times. Those are strong words, but he used them nonetheless and not once, but twice.

Presumably, the Chief of U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command knows something the rest of us don't. I'd say that's a pretty good assumption..
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Unread post29 Jul 2021, 15:59

mixelflick wrote:The F-22 isn't going anywhere for awhile...

Small fleet, expensive? Yep. Has been since day 1. The point about politics is spot on too. The biggest reason it'll be sticking around?


the problem with F-22 is the juice is not worth the squeeze. its upgrades folks. while Saab people obsess over CPFH and try to foist that on the public thats not really the main driver in aircraft. its taking the timeline out and including upgrades, and big life extensions/heavy maint. The Air force is looking at how much money its going to cost throw things into the f-22 in the future and its not liking it. an airplane without upgrades is an airplane with no future. simple as.

keep in mind Canada is spending 860 million to upgrade 36 hornets... and thats just CF-18s. remember the upgrade for the "CPFH god" Saab Gripen, is buying a completely new Saab Gripen E. what a "savings"

You don't replace an aircraft until its successor is on the ramp...


do you mean like philosophically? because history has that happening plenty of times.

The F-35 is a wonderful aircraft, but was never meant to replace the F-22. Just the opposite in fact, it was meant to complement it. USAF leadership has even said “If we don't keep F-22 Raptor viable, the F-35 fleet will be irrelevant”. The F-35 is not built as an air superiority platform. It needs the F-22,” says Hostage to Air Force Times. Those are strong words, but he used them nonetheless and not once, but twice.


sigh

Presumably, the Chief of U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command knows something the rest of us don't. I'd say that's a pretty good assumption..



always fun to have the old "listen to the experts" trope rolled out when 2 different experts says opposite things. Which expert to believe? always a fun game.
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Unread post29 Jul 2021, 22:18

Corsair1963 wrote:Why? Main reason is cost with such a small pool of aircraft. Which, are extremely expensive to operate, maintain, and upgrade.

This while the F-35 is being procured in vast numbers. Which, will be supported by large base of customers. The F-35 does just fine in the Air Defense / Air Superiority Role. As a matter of fact it already performs in that role...

As a matter of fact the F-35 won't have any serious challengers until after the arrival of the NGAD. So, again why do we need the F-22???


The F-35 isn't the answer for everything.
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Unread post30 Jul 2021, 23:59

disconnectedradical wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Why? Main reason is cost with such a small pool of aircraft. Which, are extremely expensive to operate, maintain, and upgrade.

This while the F-35 is being procured in vast numbers. Which, will be supported by large base of customers. The F-35 does just fine in the Air Defense / Air Superiority Role. As a matter of fact it already performs in that role...

As a matter of fact the F-35 won't have any serious challengers until after the arrival of the NGAD. So, again why do we need the F-22???


The F-35 isn't the answer for everything.


But its a stealthy multirole fighter with sensor fusion and is the most stealthy thing around. IT CAN AND DOES DO EVERYTHING BECAUSE ITS THE F-35!...
that is the kind of sentiment I get a sense of around here with some of the members.

Much like the Hornet and Viper its the jack of all trades and master of none. No doubt its capabilities are head and shoulders above the aircraft it is supposed to replace in operational service but sometimes you need something more dedicated to get the job done.
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Unread post31 Jul 2021, 09:16

Nobody has ever suggested that F-22s will start retiring in the 2020s, and be divested by 2030. What was said is that they might start retiring F-22s as early as 2030, depending on the NGAD status, and that the retirement will be event driven. It has also been said, that in the meantime, F-22s would continue to be upgraded, to remain relevant (and superior) to the threats.
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