What would have been the per unit cost of F-22....

Anything goes, as long as it is about the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor
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Fox1

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Unread post26 Feb 2021, 18:09

...if we had seen a full production run? I would imagine we would have seen the per unit costs go way down if we had seen a full production run. But just how low could we have gotten the flyaway cost had we built 500 to 700 of them? Every time I think about what could have been, I feel sickened. So much potential, yet so much opportunity wasted.
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f119doctor

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Unread post26 Feb 2021, 19:30

I believe that the quoted price per copy during the last year of F-22 production was $130M. They canceled production at the cheap end of the program.
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Unread post27 Feb 2021, 01:07

Wow, I had no idea it was that low at the end of the run. Considering only 187 of them were built, that is pretty incredible actually. But I can only imagine how much it could have been brought down if we had kept rolling them off the line. Is it conceivable that we might have eventually seen flyaway costs get into the $100 million range?

Ughhhh, just thinking about it makes me wanna barf. We spend 20 years and billions of dollars to develop the most incredible fighter the world has ever seen. Then we fart around and only build 187 of them and never get to see any benefits of economy of scale. I can only shake my head. The Raptor should have remained in production. And congress should have lifted export restrictions so we could sell it to close allies, such as Australia, Japan and potentially others.

:bang:

Can you imagine how many Raptors Japan and India might have ordered had that been an option? And could you imagine how beneficial those aircraft could have been when it comes to keeping China in line? Somehow we constantly shoot ourselves in the foot with short sighted decisions.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post27 Feb 2021, 16:05

f119doctor wrote:I believe that the quoted price per copy during the last year of F-22 production was $130M. They canceled production at the cheap end of the program.



Yep, they killed it just as the curves were flattening. A lot of the media people who killed it then went straight after the f-35. And today of course lament both for various reasons. My favorite are the ones who now wish we bought more F-22s

Its almost like its some people's job to constantly sow discontent and anger no matter what...

It was more than a tad frustrating, as the big hit on F-22 was that it was wrong for Iraq and Afghanistan. Some very smart people at the time that I respected kept pointing out that you can't stake your entire military future for "RPGs and IEDs forever." Its kind of when I started to tilt toward and learn more about that "new F-35" they were working on, because I realized they were right. And I'm saying that not as some far removed air force guy, I am a former grunt. Me and a lot of others figured out really quickly there was just no future in these places. in the mean time "near peer" or what has now seemingly been renamed "Great power contest" or some such in the new military vernacular.

A great warrior bashes his beautiful sword on the rocks. suddenly a red dragon appears.

Fox1 wrote:Wow, I had no idea it was that low at the end of the run. Considering only 187 of them were built, that is pretty incredible actually. But I can only imagine how much it could have been brought down if we had kept rolling them off the line. Is it conceivable that we might have eventually seen flyaway costs get into the $100 million range?

Ughhhh, just thinking about it makes me wanna barf. We spend 20 years and billions of dollars to develop the most incredible fighter the world has ever seen. Then we fart around and only build 187 of them and never get to see any benefits of economy of scale. I can only shake my head. The Raptor should have remained in production. And congress should have lifted export restrictions so we could sell it to close allies, such as Australia, Japan and potentially others.

:bang:

Can you imagine how many Raptors Japan and India might have ordered had that been an option? And could you imagine how beneficial those aircraft could have been when it comes to keeping China in line? Somehow we constantly shoot ourselves in the foot with short sighted decisions.


Well I was curious there for a second if the Air Force boss was going to give us F-22 2.0 there this last week. :mrgreen:

"We finally got the cost flattened! serial production is here the hard part is ov--

--wait what are you doing with that slasher knife, sir?"

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Corsair1963

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Unread post01 Mar 2021, 04:08

f119doctor wrote:I believe that the quoted price per copy during the last year of F-22 production was $130M. They canceled production at the cheap end of the program.



Actually, $138 Million in 2009 dollars...........
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f119doctor

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Unread post01 Mar 2021, 16:11

Corsair1963 wrote:
f119doctor wrote:I believe that the quoted price per copy during the last year of F-22 production was $130M. They canceled production at the cheap end of the program.



Actually, $138 Million in 2009 dollars...........


That is probably more accurate than my 12 year old memory. I just remember thinking that this highly expensive, sophisticated weapon of war was cheaper per copy than a lot of Boeing airliners https://simpleflying.com/how-much-do-bo ... raft-cost/

737-700 – $89.1 million
737 MAX 7 – $99.7 million
737 MAX 8 – $121.6 million
737 MAX 10 – $134.9 million
747-8 – $418.4 million
777-300ER – $375.5 million
777-9 – $442.2 million
787-8 – $248.3 million
787-10 – $338.4 million
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loke

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Unread post01 Mar 2021, 16:57

Unit cost is one thing, but how much could they have reduced the operating costs of the F-22 had they produced more? AFAIK operating costs were very high.
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Unread post02 Mar 2021, 01:47

loke wrote:Unit cost is one thing, but how much could they have reduced the operating costs of the F-22 had they produced more? AFAIK operating costs were very high.


That was one of the main contentions back then and still is. A perfect example is the fleet of Bones. They have a small fleet with high op tempos, what do you think was going to happen? No doubt the cost to operate would have gone down and the ability to upgrade would have been easier but by how much is pure wishful speculation.
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Unread post02 Mar 2021, 01:51

charlielima223 wrote:
loke wrote:Unit cost is one thing, but how much could they have reduced the operating costs of the F-22 had they produced more? AFAIK operating costs were very high.


That was one of the main contentions back then and still is. A perfect example is the fleet of Bones. They have a small fleet with high op tempos, what do you think was going to happen? No doubt the cost to operate would have gone down and the ability to upgrade would have been easier but by how much is pure wishful speculation.



Which, is one of the many reasons we need more F-35's......
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Unread post02 Mar 2021, 05:43

Fox1 wrote:And could you imagine how beneficial those aircraft could have been when it comes to keeping China in line? Somehow we constantly shoot ourselves in the foot with short sighted decisions.


But China was our great and trusted friend, who could have possibly guessed that they were gaming everyone and really following the Darkside? Absolutely no one saw that coming. In truth I don't think RAAF would have wanted F-22A, it would not have been ordered.

We would have been much more interested in F-15Es ... or ... Superhornets. We went for Superhornets because they looked like Hornets, and we're not allowed to have the really good stuff - no naval nuclear reactors for you!

RAAF barely wants a strikefighter fleet today for that matter, they only have 95 of them. Oh hang on, they sold some to Canada, so not real sure of the correct number today. Rest assured, the number of strikefighters in RAAF service currently, is incredibly dismal.

Don't be alarmed this is absolutely normal for ADF, we are not allowed to have a real military force, token only, can't be upsetting the neighbors by having a real defence capability. That's not polite.

This morning I was pondering the Israeli air force's ORBAT, and that the country currently has a military budget 2/3rd the size of Australia's, yet their air force operates well over 300 strikefighters today.

Such is the marvel of RAAF capability development planning and that finicky cost analysis stuff. That stuff will trip you up every time.

RAAF and ADF would have gone for F-35A even if F-22A were available, they would not have wanted Raptors at all, especially if it was cheap.

If the F-22A had cost 4.7 times more than projected and did not work well at what we need it to do, then this would have been a far more attractive fighter prospect for ADF's capability planners and about 80 of them would have been acquired because they're totally wrong for RAAF's full-spectrum range of roles, and they would have thus delivered almost none of the capabilities required, in a real-world fight, and we would have been left desperately ill-equipped, and under-equipped, and incapable of hitting much, if a really big-bad wolf ever appeared over the horizon.

And the sad thing is, I'm not even exaggerating.

Meanwhile we had total fruitloops like Kopp calling F-22A a tactical bomber, which is an easy mistake to make, if you ignore that the then jet had no known ground targeting capability, at all.

Fortunately RAAF completely blew it, and bought a much cheaper F-35A instead, that can actually do every conceivable strikefighter role/task RAAF will ever need to perform. It is just a pity they do not cost $320 million USD each. If they did Canberra would have bought 300 of them.

But as it is, the current top brass of RAAF are actively trying to convince ScoMo not to buy any more F-35A, as something massively better just might come along some day, and then all we will have is 100 F-35A and 35 Superhornets for some garnish.

Amazingly, I'm not even exaggerating.

‘Foolish to ramp up order for Joint Strike Fighters’

@bennpackham 9:31PM FEBRUARY 11, 2021

The head of the Air Force, Mel Hupfeld, says Australia would be “foolish” to prematurely ­increase its Joint Strike Fighter order from 72 to 100, arguing it might be better off waiting for a next-generation capability.

Days after Scott Morrison lauded the “incredible” fifth-­generation fighter, Air Marshal Hupfeld said Australia needed to “keep an open mind” on whether to exercise its option to buy a further 28 of the F-35A stealth jets.

He said a sixth-generation fighter, or some other technology, could emerge that would offer better value. “I’ve got to be open to what other options might be there,” Air Marshal Hupfeld told a briefing for defence industry players.

“I’d like to be able to believe that there is a bunch of alternative technologies and ­opportunities that would allow me to achieve air combat superiority in the times and places that we need it.”

The wait-and-see approach comes as the US considers winding back its F-35 order, potentially raising costs for Australia.

In a 2018 ­review, only recently made public, the US Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability office recommended the future US fleet of F-35s be capped at 1050 rather than an originally planned 1763. Australia has taken delivery of 33 F-35A jets from a firm order of 72, at a total program cost of $17bn.

The Lockheed Martin-manufactured fighter is one of the world’s most expensive aircraft at $140m each, and comes with huge operational costs.

It has suffered from well-publicized problems, from structural cracking to peeling stealth coatings and an inaccurate Gatling gun. “Excellence in high-end war fighting is still required. But we need to do much, much more than that,” he said.


You see? If the F-35A was capable of, "Excellence in high-end war fighting", it would be OK, but this is not the case, so we must now wait 30 years for what is capable of doing that ... meeting many wild and unrealistic speculations ... based on glossy imagery and many extenuating thought-bubbles.

Don't wait around for someone else to shoot you in the foot, when you can be proactive and get that done all by yourself. That's leadership right there. This is where Israel has no clue at all, and constantly mucks it up, and manages to build and operate a massive air force, for f3cken peanuts!

See what I mean? Australia is not allowed to have a real air force, we are allowed a real budget (sort-of) but we are not allowed to actually buy anything useful with it in other than token numbers, and certainly not without a 30-year time horizon to introduction as a core program feature, to guarantee rapid obsolescence.

So not really all that interested in air power, as such and it's all based on deep and very clever strategic analysis. Not like that has ever let us down to date, so don't go mentioning China, far too many harsh realities there ... it just makes people queasy ... more queasy than 187 F-22A.

“I’d like to be able to believe that there is a bunch of alternative technologies and ­opportunities that would allow me to achieve air combat superiority in the times and places that we need it.”

- Head of RAAF, Mel Hupfeld, Feb 11th 2021.


Maybe talk to Israel's air force about how to do that sort of thing?
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Unread post02 Mar 2021, 08:37

What would you rather have: 100 F-35 and no loyal wingmen, or 72 F-35 and 72 loyal wingmen?

BTW -- would Australia have enough pilots for 100 F-35 + the growlers + the Super Hornets + the Wedgetails, etc. etc. ?
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Unread post02 Mar 2021, 09:23

loke wrote:What would you rather have: 100 F-35 and no loyal wingmen, or 72 F-35 and 72 loyal wingmen?

BTW -- would Australia have enough pilots for 100 F-35 + the growlers + the Super Hornets + the Wedgetails, etc. etc. ?


Oh please, we have enough pilots now, and can make as many more as we need. Somehow Israel manages to do that with 1/4 of the population, less money, and fewer resources.

As for what I would want, that would the FOC capability to defeat an air-attack of any sort by China.

Loyal Wingman is a mere prototype with no known or proven capabilities. Why on earth would I want that, unless proven and actually has a role to play, and has earned its place within RAAF? When if it does I'd want it ... maybe, depend how good the autonomy capability is to defeat jamming and cyber.

Right now, I'd want more F-35A, plus Bk4's drop tanks, to go places fast without tanker support.

Then perhaps tempest on top to replace Shornets, if it also proves to be a capable long-range bomber/missileer.

If not, a Bk5 USN F-35D would probably suffice in 10 years.

If a Loyal Wingman can be useful to that, then it has a place.

What would you rather have: 100 F-35 and no loyal wingmen, or 72 F-35 and 72 loyal wingmen?


Australia could afford to build an air force of 500 strike fighters, if necessary.
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Unread post02 Mar 2021, 11:33

Above it says Australia has received 33 F-35 so far -- by when will Australia have received all 72?

I wonder how many F-35 Canada and the UK will get.

Canada is roughly the same GDP as Australia I believe, and also a quite big country. They have said they will buy 88, but I have a strong feeling they will go back to 65, that was the number a few years back. And the UK, a much bigger economy than the Australian, for sure will never be anywhere near the 138 they planned many years ago. They will start pumping money into Tempest. And with COVID crisis and Brexit their economy will take a hit.
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Unread post02 Mar 2021, 13:55

loke wrote:Above it says Australia has received 33 F-35 so far -- by when will Australia have received all 72?


https://www.airforce.gov.au/technology/ ... ghtning-ii

The first F-35A aircraft was accepted into Australian service in 2018, with the first arriving in country in December that year. The first F-35A squadron, No. 3 Squadron, will be operational in 2021. All 72 aircraft are expected to be fully operational by 2023.
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Unread post02 Mar 2021, 14:14

Fox1 wrote:Wow, I had no idea it was that low at the end of the run. Considering only 187 of them were built, that is pretty incredible actually. But I can only imagine how much it could have been brought down if we had kept rolling them off the line. Is it conceivable that we might have eventually seen flyaway costs get into the $100 million range?

Ughhhh, just thinking about it makes me wanna barf. We spend 20 years and billions of dollars to develop the most incredible fighter the world has ever seen. Then we fart around and only build 187 of them and never get to see any benefits of economy of scale. I can only shake my head. The Raptor should have remained in production. And congress should have lifted export restrictions so we could sell it to close allies, such as Australia, Japan and potentially others.

:bang:

Can you imagine how many Raptors Japan and India might have ordered had that been an option? And could you imagine how beneficial those aircraft could have been when it comes to keeping China in line? Somehow we constantly shoot ourselves in the foot with short sighted decisions.


I think Congress should have been cancelled instead of the Raptor. What morons . And wasn't it Rumsfeld at the center of it?
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