JASDF F-35A crashed

[Gamera]

(For comparison: ROKAF F-35A not grounded because they were made in and sent from USA, not assembled in Japan.)

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190411000750

Korea’s F-35A procurement unaffected by crash in Japan: ministry

2019/04/11

The Ministry of National Defense said the recent crash will not influence its purchase of the fighter jets as there have been no safety notices from the US Pacific Air Force.

The Korean Air Force has explained that the stealth fighters it is going to deploy will come directly from the US, unlike Japan’s warplane that was assembled and checked by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries before delivery.

[ricnunes]

Sounding like an in flight medical emergency.

IMO, that sounds like a sound theory indeed. It fits with the only known fact which is that the pilot declared a training abort and that the plane actually crashed which apparently happened just after the pilot's last call.
If the pilot had a serious medical problem like lets say a stroke for example, this could IMO fit in the line of the known events that lead to the crash.

Also IMO, the other possibility could be what I posted in my first and last post here in this thread which could be a critical problem with the airframe/aircraft itself, probably related to something that went wrong in the assembly of that same aircraft. I would say the fact that only the F-35A fleet built/assembled in Japan is grounded while the fleets built/assembled in the USA and Italy aren't seem to point out that at least the investigators are seriously considering this possibility (but again these are my 2 cents).
Don't know if there could be any relation with the above or not but the F-35 that crashed was precisely the very first F-35A built/assembled in Japan...

[citanon]

An in flight air frame problem that could explain the lack of a radio call would have to be sudden and catastrophic, like that F-15 that had its nose and cockpit snapping off during maneuvers.

[ricnunes]

Yes, that's indeed one of the possibilities that crossed my mind.

[mor10]

I'm wondering how much health information MADL may be transmitting to the other F-35's in the fligth? Does it send its own position and or 3D vector? If any of this comes accross the MADL link, then LM and JASDF may know more about this than us outsiders will ever learn.

[sferrin]

An in flight air frame problem that could explain the lack of a radio call would have to be sudden and catastrophic, like that F-15 that had its nose and cockpit snapping off during maneuvers.

Pretty unlikely. That F-15 was high in hours and the longeron was apparently a hidden defect.

[Corsair1963]

Most Air Accidents/Crashes are more often than not caused by a combination of factors.

[quicksilver]

An in flight air frame problem that could explain the lack of a radio call would have to be sudden and catastrophic, like that F-15 that had its nose and cockpit snapping off during maneuvers.

Riiiight...

[quicksilver]

An in flight air frame problem that could explain the lack of a radio call would have to be sudden and catastrophic, like that F-15 that had its nose and cockpit snapping off during maneuvers.

Pretty unlikely. That F-15 was high in hours and the longeron was apparently a hidden defect.

sf was being generous. More like ‘highly’ unlikely, as in ‘an intergalactic improbability.’

[spazsinbad]

An in flight air frame problem that could explain the lack of a radio call would have to be sudden and catastrophic, like that F-15 that had its nose and cockpit snapping off during maneuvers.

Pretty unlikely. That F-15 was high in hours and the longeron was apparently a hidden defect.

sf was being generous. More like ‘highly’ unlikely, as in ‘an intergalactic improbability.’

Will all respect to deceased pilot, inflight aircraft breaking up is like suggesting he was abducted by aliens, leaving the aircraft to crash into the sea. Engine fire could leave time for ejection - I would look for him in area 51? As has been mentioned already just speculating on an accident cause WITHOUT ANY OTHER INFORMATION is really not a good idea.

[citanon]

I think it's unlikely too but some major flaw in the fuselage assembly would be one thing to rule out if you have an airplane suddenly disappear without a follow-up message from the pilot.

If it crashed with no messages: controlled flight into terrain would be a strong possibility.

However, pilot radioed knock it off. So, if we follow Gum's theory if bad to worse, we have to explain.

If it's a heart attack pilot would usually still be able to speak.

Stroke, possibly with rapid onset of confusion.

Other than that you'd have to think whatever "worse" was he had no time to communicate it.

Possibility 1: still controlled flight into the ocean. Problem was when he called knock it off he didn't realize which way he was pointed and how close he was to the deck.

Possibility 2: malfunction then call knock it off. Next moments are fighting some spectacular malfunction that left no time for communication. Then malfunction won in a way that made it impossible to radio SOS.

Until 2 is ruled out all the Japanese assembled planes are now suspect.

I've heard of crazy things. My dad was a mechanic in a foreign air force. One time they had an engine fall out of a jet in flight (I have no idea how) because a country bumpkin mechanic neglected to properly bolt it in.

Even with a new airframe if somebody used bolts or load bearing components that are not properly treated or out of spec? Until you can rule it out you've got to wonder.

This against a background if recent scandals regarding falsification of materials testing data and inferior quality materials in Japan:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Busine ... to-fix-it2

[spazsinbad]

So it seems you are willing to wonder away and bore us all to tears? Just wait for more information - thank you. You may ponder why so little was said on the radio at the time: Aviate - Navigate - Communicate note first & last items.

[citanon]

So it seems you are willing to wonder away and bore us all to tears? Just wait for more information - thank you. You may ponder why so little was said on the radio at the time: Aviate - Navigate - Communicate note first & last items.

I find waiting boring and wondering fun. To each his own.

I'm well aware of the hierarchy of tasks. What's remarkable to me is that he did not have time for a mayday or, it appears, to eject.

[XanderCrews]

So it seems you are willing to wonder away and bore us all to tears? Just wait for more information - thank you. You may ponder why so little was said on the radio at the time: Aviate - Navigate - Communicate note first & last items.

I find waiting boring and wondering fun. To each his own.

I'm well aware of the hierarchy of tasks. What's remarkable to me is that he did not have time for a mayday or, it appears, to eject.

speculation sucks. it creates false narratives, some of which are never debunked. Which is one of the reasons I wait for the final report.

[spazsinbad]

Submarine Rescue Ship, Air Force U-2 Join Search for Missing Japanese Pilot, F-35A
15 Apr 2019 Ben Werner

"A U.S. surveillance plane and a recently commissioned Japanese submarine rescue ship are now scanning the ocean floor in search of a downed F-35A....

...Also over the weekend, Japan dispatched one of its newest ships, JS Chiyoda (ASR-404), the flagship of Japan’s submarine rescue fleet, Japan’s Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya, said during a media briefing Friday according to The Japan Times. Along with sensors, Chiyoda carries two deep-sea search vessels outfitted with cameras. The F-35 is thought to have crashed in a part of the Pacific that is about 5,000 feet deep. A U.S. Air Force U-2 reconnaissance plane joined the U.S. military and Japan self-defense forces search for the F-35A, Stars and Stripes reported.

The U.S. Navy sent USS Stethem (DDG-63) and P-8A Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft assigned to Patrol Squadron (VP) 8 and Patrol Squadron (VP) 5 to assist with the search efforts.

U.S. and Japanese forces are attempting to recover as much of the downed aircraft as possible. The concern is if other nations, such as Russia and China, find part of the downed aircraft, their scientists could figure out ways to neutralize the effectiveness of some the F-35’s stealth, radar and sensors...."

Source: https://news.usni.org/2019/04/15/submar ... ilot-f-35a