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The one engine provider issue - Causing some pain



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jr1947
PostPosted: Mar 02, 2006 - 01:20 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hello again Mastiff,

I spent 20 yrs. in the development department at G.E. an seen some pretty incredible operations over that period of time. I do not doubt that Pratt's just as equal in producing similar power plants. I did not desire to divulge any info. Simply because I'm knew to this web site and remember reading on particular site about not talking about anything you wouln't mention sitting in a cab.

Like I said, I'm new to the site and have no desire to get myself in hot water talking about subjects that I'm not 100% sure it's o.k. to talk about. Being retired now and coming across this site it gives me the opportunity to read and discuss views of aviation, which I was a part of over my years spent at G.E.

I wrenched on the old T-64, J-85, then went along to the Tf-34, Cf-34, T-700, Ct-7, F-404 & briefly the f-414 before retiring. The only reason why I'm particularly interested in the single/dual sourcing issue is I got my son in the plant last October and from my experience, word spreads very fast in that place. For whatever reason no one was talking about the house decision. It got me to thinking about the various reasons why and why not. I can tell you this much for fact. When I started working their the work force was around 17,000 - when I retired it was just under 4,000. It all-ways scared me about the future of Lynn, ma. plant because our C.E.O. - Jack Whelch who came from the area, all-ways had a hair across his.......when it came to contract time. He all-ways said lynn all-ways bucks. It struck me as unusual because he was from the area and knew what was good for plants down south wasn't good for us living in new england with it's cost of living etc. anyway he all-ways said, I'll close that dame plant.

Well, he's retired now but I'm afraid for my kid just how much of a grudge Jack Welech holds. The spokesman for G.E. has all-ready come out and said if the overall contract goes back to single sourcing then more than likely G.E. would deal in the future strictly with commercial engines, which more than likely, Evandale Ohio would take in the remaining military work at Lynn's plant and basically Lynn would close down. Thus my kid and alot of other people would be out of a job, and that's not even mentioning what it would do to the various locally farmed out work. Basically it would make Lynn a ghost town and hurt alot of business in the area. well, I guess that about sums it up from this end.

Hope to hear from you again, hopefully on a brighter note.

Respectfully,
jr1947

P.S. Big business, gotta love it.
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The_Mastiff
PostPosted: Mar 02, 2006 - 01:51 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Quote:

P.S. Big business, gotta love it.


Is it big business or other things like Unions etc. I came down from Flint Michigan around 20 years ago. Right when everything was shutting down.I can't really fault GM as they were paying (back then) $22 to 30something dollars per hours, plus incredible benefits. The Unions squeezed the companies untill there was no more to squeeze.

Here in NC we didn't get GM but we did get our share of northern companies, and they still are coming. Why pay a semi skilled worker 25$ per hour when you can go elsewhere and pay someone 12$ per hour. The work quality is the same or better than someone that has a union to hide behind.

Please don't think that I wish ill for your old plant, or the area. Things tend to work out the way they are supposed to in my experience. When I graduated I couldn't even get a macdonalds job, and GM was laying off people with 13 to 17 years seniority. It eventually led me here to NC where I and my family flourished. I retired a few years back myself. Once again , good luck to your son. Take care jr1947. JL Raleigh NC
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jr1947
PostPosted: Mar 15, 2006 - 01:26 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Has anyone heard anything in regards to the final decision on this dual or single sourcing issue? It was suppose to be finalized by the end of February I've e-mailedsenator Kennedys office but have yet to receive a responce. My son works at the Lynn G.E. plant and generally news travels pretty fast either by the union paper or the company news paper yet this whole JSF issue is hush hush. Seems to me the politians are trying to figure which is better going to serve their pockets dual/single sourcing. Lets hope they get it right and think of the tax payers $ for a change rather than their own interests.
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motorman
PostPosted: Mar 18, 2006 - 12:01 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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If they get it right (and not turn this into a political issue), the F136 goes away. From this weeks round of testimony before the SASC . . .

Quote:
Statement of Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England
Joint Strike Fighter Alternate Engine
Before the Senate Armed Services Committee
March 15, 2006
“Hard Choices”


Chairman Warner, Senator Levin, Members of the Committee, thank you for the opportunity to discuss the Department of Defense’s decision to cancel the Joint Strike Fighter F136 engine, as part of the President’s FY07 budget submission.

With me today are the Vice Chiefs of the Air Force, Navy and Marines. Each of these Services will be operating the JSF. Each of these individuals is a distinguished combat aviator – Gen Corley, ADM Willard, and Gen Magnus. We are prepared to answer any questions you may have.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter - our next-generation strike fighter – is an important program. It is designed to be lethal, supportable, survivable and hopefully affordable. All three versions were supported by the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review as necessary to meet the security challenges of the 21st century, by being adaptable to different operating environments and threats.

Adaptability and flexibility, in the face of greater strategic uncertainty than ever before, are critical parts of the Department’s strategic approach.

The JSF also supports the Department’s strategic vision to bolster international partnerships. Victory in the Long War and against other threats to our Nation requires international unity of purpose, and the ability to integrate our efforts with those of our international partners. JSF gives us a good opportunity to share interoperable capabilities with key partners around the globe.

As part of the QDR process, and based on analysis and in-depth discussion among senior civilian and military leaders, the Department decided to continue to produce all three JSF variants – CTOL, STOVL and CV. We did this to maintain as wide a range of options as possible, and to address the interests of our international partners. In particular, we recognized the interest of our British allies in the STOVL variant and its importance to their future defense program. The pros and cons of a competitive engine strategy were analyzed. The Department concluded that having a second JSF engine would not yield net cost savings through competition.

Development costs of the second engine program are estimated to be, at a minimum, $2.4 billion dollars through the FYDP. In the most optimistic projection, savings in production would not begin to accrue until 2025. In the most realistic scenario, savings are never achieved, regardless of program time.

It can certainly be argued that a second engine reduces the program’s engine failure risk, but the Department has found that to be an acceptable risk. Here, it is useful to consider the history of the alternate engine debate. In the 1970’s, engine reliability was much lower than it is today. As late as December of 1990, the Air Force’s B-1 fleet stood down for 3 months due to an engine defect. However, reliability and safety factors have increased 10-fold in last 30 years. Today, for the Air Force’s F-16, the single engine mishap rate has dropped from 10 per 100,000 hours to 1 per 100,000 hours. This same reliability increase is found in the civilian airline industry where Southwest Airlines now experiences only 1 engine shutdown per 177,000 flight hours. Put another way, one of their aircraft must fly for 53 years before experiencing one in-flight shutdown.

The “Great Engine War” between Pratt & Whitney and General Electric, in the early 1980’s, served its purpose at the time by generating competition, and it was one of the catalysts for the incredible achievements of the engine industry’s unprecedented accomplishments. While there were benefits to engine competition in the past, recent experience with engine development for the F-22A and F/A-18 E/F indicates that sole-source risks are modest and acceptable. In over 12 years, the F119 engine found in the F-22A has amassed more than 42,000 hours in ground and flight-testing, and another 16,000 hours of operational time. With zero F-22A engine related losses and no groundings due to engine-related problems, the F119 engine marks a significant improvement over legacy fighter engine programs like those that prompted the “Great Engine War.”

The F135 engine will benefit from a 70% commonality with the superb F119 engine. Moreover, the F119 is projected to have accrued 800,000 hours by F135 IOC. The data from that program will be used to improve the F135 in terms of design, repair, and supportability. Indeed, for the F135 propulsion system, a 30 to 50 percent improvement in reliability and safety is predicted, compared to the F119, which is already the most successful jet fighter engine in the Department's history.

The Department has concluded that while it would be nice to have a second engine, it is not necessary and not affordable. As a general matter, applying resources to a specific problem is usually more timely and effective than diverting funding to a redundant solution.

In the 2006 QDR, the Department laid out a future strategic vision to meet the new and broader array of threats to the Nation. This vision calls for a shift of emphasis, and making that shift forces hard decisions in the budgeting process. It requires the Department to carefully consider capabilities versus cost and, if necessary, to terminate or modify less effective and lower priority programs in order to be able to afford the new capabilities required.

The Department began this process in the President’s FY ‘07 budget submission. The Department’s senior civilian and military leadership determined, for example, that to defeat terrorist networks, it is necessary to fund the largest increase to Special Operations Forces since Vietnam. Another example is that the Department determined that in order to strengthen homeland defense and hedge against technological surprises, a substantial investment in broad spectrum medical countermeasures against advanced bio-terror agents is necessary.

Making these investments required some hard choices. The FY ’07 President’s budget submittal contains some “leading edge” hard choices from the QDR. Most of the hard work, to align the defense program with the strategic direction of the QDR, will continue into FY ’08, FY ’09 and forward.

I would also remind the Committee that each contractor team that bid on the JSF selected the current Pratt & Whitney engine design. The alternate engine was directed by the Congress, and the Department has been fully compliant with that direction until it became evident that the cost risk benefit was no longer advantageous. Continuing with that second engine would lead the Department down the classical procurement path of delays, and spreading out the costs over time. Without the ability to adjust procurement to meet defense needs, the Department will be mired in the status quo at a time when it needs to be flexible and dynamic.

Today, I am asking you to join the Department of Defense in making the hard choices we have to make, to implement the strategic vision of the QDR. A few days ago, the Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Senator Judd Gregg, summarized our situation quite clearly: “We must also recognize that there is no such thing as an unlimited budget – difficult choices must be made.”

To meet the security challenges of the 21st century, maintaining the status quo is not an option. The QDR is a great start, but its vision can only be achieved with the support of the Congress to adjust programs and funding. Writing about the challenges the Founders of our nation faced, David Hackett Fischer said that “the history of a free people is the history of hard choices”. It was true then, and it’s true today.

Thank you again for your interest in our programs, and your unwavering, strong support of our men and women in uniform – they are remarkable. I look forward to your questions.
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jr1947
PostPosted: Mar 18, 2006 - 10:35 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hello elp,

jr1947 here. The potential down fall of a one engine supplier is plain and simple. If a plane goes down and it's an engine caused faliure which the piolt would know, then untill the aircraft is recovered, if possible, and the faliure has been resolved as to what caused the faliure then the "ENTIRE FLEET" must be "GROUNDED" untill it has been resolved. With two suppliers you can still have part of the fleet in the air doing their job. That's basiclly the bottom line. In the case of the JSF program that would be alot of aircraft sitting on flight decks or tarmacks doing nothing should that happen. Tax dollars hard at work? What would you rather have 50% of something or 100% of nothing.
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motorman
PostPosted: Mar 18, 2006 - 11:04 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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. . . then we ought to start an alternate enging program for those F-18's, F-22A's, B1-B, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. pretty quick. Last time I checked they were sole-sourced, too.

As the Dep Sec Def said, DoD weighed the risks vs. reward. Beyond that, this is all just politics (ask your buddy TK).
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jr1947
PostPosted: Mar 18, 2006 - 11:12 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hello motorman,

jr1947 here. Excellent points of interest along with factual information. The only thing that bothers me is "THE WHAT IF" does infact happen. Grant it the odds are very impressive that hrs./faliure /down time are overwheming that it's, as it's been said a minimal risk but the fact that "IT COULD HAPPEN" is what concerns me. Seeing that more $ is about to be spent then ever in the entire history of defence procurment all we little people can do, as you have said, is hope that this isn't turned into a political issue, which in my opinion is exactly what appears to be developing. We as tax payers must be submitting our views to the various political leaders is about all we can do.

The outcome remains to be seen. It was a pleasure reading your reply. You brought up some very interesting facts.
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motorman
PostPosted: Mar 18, 2006 - 11:20 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Thanks, but I can't take credit for any of those facts. The post above was just quoting the congressional testimony of Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England verbatim from the public record. I suspect he knows more about this than all of us. Smile
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jr1947
PostPosted: Mar 20, 2006 - 02:00 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hi motorman, Jr1947 again,

I worked for g.e. for 25 yrs. before retireing and now my son works their. I've been asking him if he's heard anything about the vote and it's simply amazing to me that this whole issue has become so close mouth. Over my years their I found out one thing in particular word spreads like wild fire in that place, yet for some reason this whole matter no-one, especially managment seems to want to say anything or doesn't know anything. Same applies to the union, no ones talking.

I've e-mailed Kenndy's office for any information and have yet to receive a responce. It doesn't matter to me as far as my sons job is concerned because he's a welder and can find work where ever should they decide to transfer all the work out to Evendale. I just find it very interesting that this whole dual/single sourcing issue has become so hush hush as to just a straight forward this or that.

I think we both agree politics is becoming more and more of the issue here. Well, they can't keep it quiet to much longer before the public realizes 1 + 1 doesn't equal 3 Thumb
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elp
PostPosted: Mar 27, 2006 - 09:35 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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jr1947 wrote:
Hello elp,

jr1947 here. The potential down fall of a one engine supplier is plain and simple. If a plane goes down and it's an engine caused faliure which the piolt would know, then untill the aircraft is recovered, if possible, and the faliure has been resolved as to what caused the faliure then the "ENTIRE FLEET" must be "GROUNDED" untill it has been resolved. With two suppliers you can still have part of the fleet in the air doing their job. That's basiclly the bottom line. In the case of the JSF program that would be alot of aircraft sitting on flight decks or tarmacks doing nothing should that happen. Tax dollars hard at work? What would you rather have 50% of something or 100% of nothing.



Yeah well we had multi vendors with the F-16....... and ended up with the big mouth / small mouth nonsense instead of one engine spec to plug in.... Wonder how much money that cost me ....the taxpayer..? Very Happy Laughing Laughing

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jr1947
PostPosted: Apr 01, 2006 - 08:45 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hello ELP,

I find it amazing, I worked in the lynn, ma G.E. plant in devolpment for appx. 25 yrs. Every other week we'd get a local union news paper telling us what's going on etc. Also, the company would send out a news paper just the opposite weeks we didn't receive the union paper. What is so ironic about this whole matter is that in that place word spreads like wild fire yet my son, who's a welder in their now and brings home both papers there is really something very odd about just how hush hush this whole matter is becoming. The more and more I try and find out exactly what's up the more and more I'm seeing politics becoming the big issue here. I think they think we can't add 1+1+1 = who's trying to get who's poc-ket greased the most. It's pathetic.......when he got out of high school I was hesitant about getting him in their but the $'s good and the benefits are great, it's all the bull.... that goes along with it that had me leary.

Anyway he's at least got a trade so what ever happens happens. One thing I learned... never trust big business Evil or Very Mad
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Corsair1963
PostPosted: Apr 02, 2006 - 01:49 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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While, I don't necessarily believe everything coming from Corporate America. Labor is just as good as a spinner as they come............ LMAO
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jr1947
PostPosted: Apr 02, 2006 - 08:40 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hello corsair1963,

I happened to catch your post back on page 2 Feb. 01 and it looks to me your an advocate for the G.E. power plants. In as much as their engines are concerned I must admit over my 25 yrs. working for the G.E., their engines, I very much enjoyed building. The company it self well it is what it is........big business. I know it's big business that more or less keeps the economy going and that's what's driving me crazy about this whole single/dual sourcing issue.

When G.E. won the f-404 out right yrs. ago they had to give some of it over to Pratt because someone came up with the idea of dual sourcing. Now, when it's been proven to be a very go concept someone decides to go back to single sourcing??? All I can think is some way some how it's big business that's going to make alot of $'s on this deal and I can't beleive G.E.'s just letting this go by the board.

But again, as far as their engines are concerned, I'd back G.E. up 100%. We designed and built them right, with plenty of balls to, pardon my expression.
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jr1947
PostPosted: Apr 02, 2006 - 09:03 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hello Lieven,

I also caught <a href="news_article1625.html">your post on Feb. 16th. about R.R.'s tentative agreement with Pratt</a>. Talk about jumping ship. It appears T.B's people want in on this J.S.F. program one way or the other. By the way is it loc.Martin who's sitting fat and pretty in this whole deal, or is the airframe up for grabs also???

P.S. Besides me just not posting can anyone give me direction as to why my
posts are having to be text corrected as far as spacing. I'm really sorry
that you have to go back and do the extra work. Right now I'm typing and
everthing looks fine yet whenI post every line is skipping a line and one of
you kind folks have been correcting. If I could figure out what's causing it
I would correct it immediately but....My son took a look at it an wasn't able
to help so I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place as they say. I'll try to
limit the length of my posts in the future but if someone Knows what I've got
set up wrong I'd sure appreciate it if someone would help. Thanks Embarassed
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motorman
PostPosted: Apr 02, 2006 - 02:59 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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I think the last of the very few Pratt made 404’s was quite some time ago. One can only assume they’re not making them (or 414’s) because someone decided the benefit of competing the annual buys did not outweigh whatever the added costs were. So much for competition driving down costs Wink
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