Forum: General F-35 Forum

1st503rdsgt wrote:

SpudmanWP wrote:

Well they would not be a partner otherwise.

All those options mean that the ATD-X has NOTHING to do with being a competitor based on the the F-35 being late or over budget.

You seem a bit overly upset. Personally, I believe that ADT-X was originally a response to congressional refusal to sell the F-22; but if the F-35 was on time and on budget, they probably would have shelved the project permanently by now. In any case, there aren't really any sources to confirm your argument or mine. The only tangible indication that it might compete with the F-35 would be its weight (given at a very unrealistic [possibly mistranslated] 17,636 lbs on Wikipedia). Given the engines available to Japan, I'm guessing it will be in the F-35's weight-class, perhaps a touch heavier.

I really wonder how long this fighter will be in development for. The Japanese economy is facing some serious debt issues: this year its going to refinance 24% of its current outstanding debt. The cost or rebuilding after the earthquake just means its somewhat silly to continue the R&D effort when you're already procuring a stealth fighter. Sure if you want an alternative, that's all good. But Japan is approaching a place where it can't afford it. Its kinda like the F-136 vs F-135 in the current debt climate.... but there is no possible way that it will drive down the F-35J's costs.

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At this point all they are doing is spending some money to try and keep current with some fighter tech. One hand it's insurance and the other it's a defense subsidy that makes the company and others happy. Japan can certainly produce a new fighter. That said it would be very expensive for them and they would need some requirement the F-35 can't fill. There are some nations that have expressed a desire for an air to air optimized fighter in the mid term including Japan, South Korea, and Israel but it's not exactly clear that the F-35 isn't going to be more than adequate and obviate the supposed requirement.

It's doubtful Japan would co operate with South Korea or Israel. South Korea and Israel developing an aircraft together is possible but not likely. Moreover, the US is developing a new fighter optimized for air to air in the mid term and it might be exportable. That would put a damper on other nations development. NGAD (F/A-XX) is supposed to go to technology demonstration next year. The F-22 follow is supposed to share some systems with NGAD.

1st503rdsgt wrote:

SpudmanWP wrote:

The US and it's Partner nations decide, together, what is included (and when) for the F-35. It is most certainly not a take-it or leave-it type of program.

As long as they're ok with one engine (of one type) and one pilot.

Like they were with the F-104, F-4, Tornado, Mirage 2000, Typhoon, and Rafale? You mean like that?

1st503rdsgt wrote:

SpudmanWP wrote:

The US and it's Partner nations decide, together, what is included (and when) for the F-35. It is most certainly not a take-it or leave-it type of program.

As long as they're ok with one engine (of one type) and one pilot.

Went fine for the Starfighter and the F-16 - and this time around, the various partners are getting a lot more input in terms of weapons, countermeasures etc.

I can't see any major issue with the F35 becoming the third US jet to become almost standard issue for Europe and large chunks of the remaining planet.

I think the Japanese will just wait a bit before making a firm decision. They will simply keep moving ahead slowly with there insurance. They have at least until 2020-2025. The shock of the Tsunami and Meltdown etc. will recede in a few years also. There economy is strong enough to get on top of that quickly. Only a matter of a few more years.
If the F35 proves to be OK as an Air Superiority Fighter when they get there first 42 then they may save there money and stay with it. They are not stupid and realise at the moment they really only have what LM is saying and the US is saying. As someone else said the ATD-X is there insurance. The Japanese will never settle for second best - not there way. Nothing in Japan is second best. Expect a final decision in say 2015/16 when it is all much clearer. [When do they get there first F35's? Are they getting a few early builds?]
The land attack role of the F35 is only secondary for Japan. Naval attack important. When they get them they will decide if they are good enough in the Air Superiority role. That's why they wanted at least a chance to have a good look at the Raptor. The ideal aircraft for them and there requirements from what we have been told.
Money would not be a problem in the longer term. The cost of these things is spread over decades. Japan has Government Debt but has lots of foreign Reserves - No2 in the World. [China No1 - Saudi Arabia No3 - Russia No4. Two close neighbors in the Top 4.] I am certain if they sold it well Politically the Japanese people would be happy to pay a bit more Tax to finance something like this especially if there could be export $ in the long term and there is the prestige. The second 5th gen in the Western World. Spin-offs for all there high tech industries.
The Japanese do not want to ever see an Imperialist Japan again - thats as far as that goes. That's why the Land attack role of the F35 will be of very little interest to them. It will I am certain be a long time before we ever see Japanese soldiers serving overseas in numbers let alone them sending there Airforce to attack others.
The main reason they do not want to be dependent on an ally for there own homeland defense. They are now becoming aware that has a cost. We have seen the US start to put pressure on them in that way in the last decade. Come and give us a hand in Iraq and Afghanistan etc. if you want our protection. They don't like being in that position as a nation. Oligated.
There gradual Space program and Rocket technology etc. to me are all to a large degree matters of Insurance plus a way of getting a foot into the commercial Export Market in Satellite technology etc.
My guess is they will go ahead quickly by 2015/16 if the F35 does not come up to scratch in the areas they want an aircraft to be good. They will want something that can match the Pak Fa. Not the SU35s only. They will always want the best possible.
Still too many unknowns. OK to buy some F35's in the meantime to replace there F4's.

If one anyone wants, they can go with a less capable and survivable 4.5g aircraft instead. As for a competitor, it would end up costing as much as the F-35 to design and they'd have to do it without USAF or NAVAIR money.

sferrin wrote:

1st503rdsgt wrote:

SpudmanWP wrote:

The US and it's Partner nations decide, together, what is included (and when) for the F-35. It is most certainly not a take-it or leave-it type of program.

As long as they're ok with one engine (of one type) and one pilot.

Like they were with the F-104, F-4, Tornado, Mirage 2000, Typhoon, and Rafale? You mean like that?

Uh, which of those types you mentioned were limited to one pilot again? The Rafale example is especially funny because my understanding is that the French have found the 2-seater variant preferable and decided to order mostly 'B' models.

stobiewan wrote:

1st503rdsgt wrote:

SpudmanWP wrote:

The US and it's Partner nations decide, together, what is included (and when) for the F-35. It is most certainly not a take-it or leave-it type of program.

As long as they're ok with one engine (of one type) and one pilot.

Went fine for the Starfighter and the F-16 - and this time around, the various partners are getting a lot more input in terms of weapons, countermeasures etc.

I can't see any major issue with the F35 becoming the third US jet to become almost standard issue for Europe and large chunks of the remaining planet.

No one is saying that the Europeans are gonna stampede away from the F-35. It's the countries most likely to order the F-35 in the future that might be interested in a competing airframe. Some air-forces just *want* 2 seats or 2 engines, and since the Japanese claim that the ATD-X will have 3D TVC, one can see them putting on quite a marketing show at Farnborough 2032. It's all pure speculation of course, and the most likely scenario is that the F-35 will continue to snap up orders from just about every US ally on the planet well into the 2040s.

1st503rdsgt wrote:

sferrin wrote:

1st503rdsgt wrote:

SpudmanWP wrote:

The US and it's Partner nations decide, together, what is included (and when) for the F-35. It is most certainly not a take-it or leave-it type of program.

As long as they're ok with one engine (of one type) and one pilot.

Like they were with the F-104, F-4, Tornado, Mirage 2000, Typhoon, and Rafale? You mean like that?

Uh, which of those types you mentioned were limited to one pilot again? The Rafale example is especially funny because my understanding is that the French have found the 2-seater variant preferable and decided to order mostly 'B' models.

I guess you don't know what bold text means. Rolling Eyes

The fact that the F-35 has a single type of engine is a red herring. All of those aircraft I listed only have a single type of engine. Add to the list the Gripen, Viggen, Lightning, Harrier, Buccaneer, and just about every other strike / fighter aircraft in NATO (or the former WarPact for that matter). And before anybody starts jumping up and down like Arnold Horshack, no, the F-4 Phantom didn't have interchangable engines. You either had the drastically modified F-4K with the Speys or your F-4 was powered by J79s.

sferrin wrote:

I guess you don't know what bold text means. Rolling Eyes

The fact that the F-35 has a single type of engine is a red herring. All of those aircraft I listed only have a single type of engine. Add to the list the Gripen, Viggen, Lightning, Harrier, Buccaneer, and just about every other strike / fighter aircraft in NATO (or the former WarPact for that matter). And before anybody starts jumping up and down like Arnold Horshack, no, the F-4 Phantom didn't have interchangable engines. You either had the drastically modified F-4K with the Speys or your F-4 was powered by J79s.

Meh. Chill out dude. Sticking to the more recent (and relevant) past, have any of the above mentioned types come close to matching the F-16's success on the export market? You're right though; fighters usually come with only one type of engine. However, the general point that customers like choices and competition remains. One engine or two, one pilot or two, TVC or not; some will like it one way, some the other. I'm not worried about the F-35; I just found it interesting that the Japanese are still taking the ATD-X so seriously (I thought it had faded away years ago).

1st503rdsgt wrote:

I'm not worried about the F-35; I just found it interesting that the Japanese are still taking the ATD-X so seriously (I thought it had faded away years ago).

I'd think after their experience on the F-16, er, "F-2" they'd still have a sour taste in their mouths. Wink

Forum: General F-35 Forum

Are F-35 problems spawning a competitor?