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Overstatement of PAK-FA capabilities?



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geogen
PostPosted: Feb 27, 2010 - 05:59 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Re: upgraded F-111/F-22 export scheme by APA... I personally think it was a valid proposal at the time and should be respected as such. I simply have to question the motives of those outright bashing the general concept. (other than mere point scoring on this Kopp guy). The near-militant opposition to the concept though only loses credibility imho.

I mean, what could $30-40m investment per F-111 do today in terms of a 6,000 hr upgrade platform?? Is this a legit debate or flat out not? And perhaps... in lieu of export F-22, could there be another comparative alternative to F-35A, providing IOC squadrons sooner than 20018/19? Let's at least get real with this whole discussion folks (if we're going to engage in it going forward) and not get entrapped in the cheap, tit for tat cirucs of personal attacks to make ones point... my 2 cents.

As for PAKFA capabilities go?? Nobody can truly say for sure.. just as nobody can truly speculate on final F-35A block V capabilities by 2020, sure. However, such speculation on either end is fair game for honest, analytical assessments, no?

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shep1978
PostPosted: Feb 27, 2010 - 09:37 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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jeffb wrote:
Conan wrote:

HaveVoid wrote:
A better question is why does APA exist? I guess I don't see the point of a think tank that that just comments on defense matters, but is not necessarily informed of them by any government agencies.


1. Carlo Kopp writes these articles for a local Defence rag in Australia and for reasons best known to himself, simultaneously puts them up for free use on this website...

2. Peter Goon's company - Australian Flight Test Services went broke after he failed to win a contract from the Australian Government to build the F-111S "uber pig" and now seemingly his only involvement in the defence arena is partnering Kopp in writing these ridiculous articles... That the F-35 was the platform that "beat" his F-111 upgrade idea and therefore sent his company broke, obviously doesn't influence his opinion, one iota... Rolling Eyes


This is just bullshit. Australian Flight Test Services is like a ten person company. To claim that their only motivation in this is financial is just wishful thinking on Conan's part.


You are kidding I take it? I mean calling it "bullshit" when it is an established fact that Goon and his pals would have profited, really...

(I wonder, are you involved with APA and Goon hence the rabid defending Wink )
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jeffb
PostPosted: Feb 27, 2010 - 11:36 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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shep1978 wrote:
jeffb wrote:
Conan wrote:

HaveVoid wrote:
A better question is why does APA exist? I guess I don't see the point of a think tank that that just comments on defense matters, but is not necessarily informed of them by any government agencies.


1. Carlo Kopp writes these articles for a local Defence rag in Australia and for reasons best known to himself, simultaneously puts them up for free use on this website...

2. Peter Goon's company - Australian Flight Test Services went broke after he failed to win a contract from the Australian Government to build the F-111S "uber pig" and now seemingly his only involvement in the defence arena is partnering Kopp in writing these ridiculous articles... That the F-35 was the platform that "beat" his F-111 upgrade idea and therefore sent his company broke, obviously doesn't influence his opinion, one iota... Rolling Eyes


This is just bullshit. Australian Flight Test Services is like a ten person company. To claim that their only motivation in this is financial is just wishful thinking on Conan's part.


You are kidding I take it? I mean calling it "bullshit" when it is an established fact that Goon and his pals would have profited, really...

(I wonder, are you involved with APA and Goon hence the rabid defending Wink )


Cue the anti-APA trolls. Rolling Eyes

That's just it Shep it isn't an established fact. It's exactly the opposite of an established fact! Kopp and Goon are analysts not entrepreneurs, suggesting that the RAAF would hand over the upgrade of 40 odd airframes of Australia's most capable strike aircraft to a couple of analysts is laughable! The idea itself is just STUPID! Talk about jump the shark. Tell me Shep, do YOU believe a professional air force would do something like that? Seriously? Because if you do I've got a bridge you might be interested in buying. Wink LOL.

All the maintenance and upgrades of these aircraft are handled by Boeing Australia at Amberley in Queensland:
http://www.defence.gov.au/TeamAustralia/weapons_integration_aircraft.htm
They've been doing it for years, they did the block upgrade of the F-111 avionics and hardware, why would the RAAF go anywhere else? LOL.
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flighthawk
PostPosted: Feb 27, 2010 - 04:03 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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jeffb wrote:

It's exactly the opposite of an established fact! Kopp and Goon are analysts not entrepreneurs,.


I wouldnt give them credit in calling them analysts - a first year uni student can write more credible papers. Laughing
I actually don't give a flying **** what their motivation is - the bottom line is that most of the papers they put up on that site are most definately not established fact ( aka Bullshit). They put a lot of effort into writing that stuff though - why??
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Prinz_Eugn
PostPosted: Feb 27, 2010 - 08:56 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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geogen wrote:
Re: upgraded F-111/F-22 export scheme by APA... I personally think it was a valid proposal at the time and should be respected as such. I simply have to question the motives of those outright bashing the general concept. (other than mere point scoring on this Kopp guy). The near-militant opposition to the concept though only loses credibility imho.

I mean, what could $30-40m investment per F-111 do today in terms of a 6,000 hr upgrade platform?? Is this a legit debate or flat out not? And perhaps... in lieu of export F-22, could there be another comparative alternative to F-35A, providing IOC squadrons sooner than 20018/19? Let's at least get real with this whole discussion folks (if we're going to engage in it going forward) and not get entrapped in the cheap, tit for tat cirucs of personal attacks to make ones point... my 2 cents.

As for PAKFA capabilities go?? Nobody can truly say for sure.. just as nobody can truly speculate on final F-35A block V capabilities by 2020, sure. However, such speculation on either end is fair game for honest, analytical assessments, no?


1) Their idea was predicated on the political environment in another country far outside their control (Ban on Export F-22's)
2) Funding an export version for the F-22 would have been phenomenally expensive compared to just buying into a new aircraft program.
3) F-11 Deep modernization would still have meant maintaining older airframes and finding funding for testing and integration of new equipment.
4) The F-111 is not very survivable vs. anything with Look-down-shoot-down radar.

Australia was never, ever going to get any variant of the F-22. Upgrading the F-111 for continued service would have required substantial investment of funds for an aircraft less capable than overall cheaper off-the-shelf Super Hornets.

The idea is derided for a reason. APA has shown time and time again that they are heavily biased against the F-35 and do not shy away from very obviously cherry-picked analysis. Behold:



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exec
PostPosted: Feb 27, 2010 - 09:42 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Prinz_Eugn wrote:

Behold:


OMG! This is unbelievable! This isn't just a bias, this is nonesense and simply not true:

PAK-FA 2,0 Ma target supercruise? Not true. (current target 1,5)
PAK-FA all aspect stealth? Laughing Not true.
PAK-FA extreme agility (better than F-22) Unknown but unlikely.
PAK-FA high power ESA? Unknown.
PAK-FA high SA? Unknown. The same level as the F-35? Unlikely.
Su-35 supercruising? Laughing Not true.
Su-35 extreme agility? Better than F-22? Not true!
Su-35 3D TVC? Not true.
Su-35 Sidelooking ESA? Not true.
Su-35 High power ESA. Yes, but not AESA.
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south
PostPosted: Feb 27, 2010 - 11:50 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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To me the problem comes in where APA have denigrated and publiclly berated individuals with the integrity and esteem such as the CDF - ACM Houston. This man has repeatedly demonstrated his integrity and moral courage over the course of his career yet is subject to ridicule by the APA team. Crazy.

They cherry pick their analysis - which oh by the way is open source data only, whilst at the same time the individuals they attack have access to all of the real information, intel and analysis. APA as well as cherry picking their analysis, then go on to establish a biased scoring metric on flimsy information which supports their own case. As they write newer articles they frequently reference their own material as "evidence" of fact....

At the same time their own arrogance is breathtaking...

Kopp wrote:
What was most disappointing about your comments, is that you chose to attack APA for doing the difficult critical thinking and rigorous analytical work which your office should have done in the first place, and clearly failed to do. The Joint Strike Fighter Program Office, under your leadership as PEO and previously DPEO, became infatuated with marketing the program over managing it. Given your professional and academic background in engineering, science and test flying, you should have known better. Others I am sure can and should elaborate on this matter further.

I have had the privilege of knowing a great many serving and former United States Air Force officers over the three decades I have been involved with military aviation, and I take much pride in being able to say that nearly all of them remain good friends and professional colleagues. People often ask why I keep a framed picture of Gen Curtis E LeMay in my office. The answer is simple – the values of integrity, honour, persistence and hard work, which Gen LeMay promoted so long and so hard, are worthwhile and necessary if anything good is to be achieved.

In conclusion, your comments to Inside Defense are mostly misrepresentations and errors of fact, and not what should be expected from a General Officer in the world’s finest Air Force.



It is the continued misrepresentation of their own flawed analysis, combined with arrogance as shown above that has lead to them being in the position where they are now.
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Conan
PostPosted: Feb 28, 2010 - 04:18 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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jeffb wrote:

This is just bullshit. Australian Flight Test Services is like a ten person company. To claim that their only motivation in this is financial is just wishful thinking on Conan's part. Whilst Kopp and Goon developed the proposal to upgrade the Australian F-111 fleet and purchase F-22A's as a replacement for the Australian F-18A's they were never going to be involved in the actual work. This work was always going to be carried out by the guys who maintain and repair the F-111's now; Boeing Defence Australia at RAAF Base Amberley, the DSTO (Defence Science and Technology Organisation, kind of Australia's DARPA) and the RAAF's Aircraft Research and development Unit.

Conan likes to complain about APA's bias and misleading articles but he's not averse to dropping a couple of lies in himself if the opportunity presents itself. To claim that Kopp and Goon stood to make financial gain from the upgrade of the F-111 and that this is their sole motivation for maintaining the Air Power Australia website is just a shallow attemp to mislead readers and to smear the reputations of authors whose views he disagree with.


Unlike you Jeff, I actually do my own research before swallowing something whole.

1. AFTS was deregistered as a company in 2005. Here is the download from ASIC's website confirming this:

Extracted from ASIC's database at AEST 10:17:56 on 28/02/2010
Name AUSTRALIAN FLIGHT TEST SERVICES PTY. LTD.
ACN
008 083 565
ABN
89 008 083 565
Type Australian Proprietary Company, Limited By Shares
Registration Date 10/09/1985
Next Review Date 10/09/2005Deregistered &nbsp22/04/2005
Status Deregistered Date
Locality of Registered Office not available
Jurisdiction Australian Securities & Investments Commission


So it's not like "10 guys". It is precisely "no guys" because the company didn't win the contract work they bid for under AIR-6000 and folded shortly thereafter. With no further work and various other problems, Goon had no choice but to wind the company up. The fact that it operated out of his house in Mawson Lakes, South Australia and he had to sell that place for personal reasons, didn't do wonders for it's ability to trade either...

Out of interest, they did actually win some contract work from RAAF once upon a time, a set of cargo panniers for AP-3C Orions in fact. These were most profitably employed hauling cartons of beer, by the RAAF, though the bomb bays had to be kept pressurised or they tended to explode... I know of 2 other dealings, with RAAF that are not so complementary but I'll save them. No need to throw muck. You can read it at their website whenever you wish...

2. Kopp has admitted publicly that he stood to gain royalties from this work, including, apparently if Australia ever purchased F-22, because "they thought of it"...

The F-111 work wasn't going to be done by them, I agree. This is part of what makes their "offer" so outrageous. They intended to win the contract work and then sub-contract ALL of the actual work out to defence industry that actually had the capability to do it. Meanwhile, they sat back and enjoyed the royalties due because of the "brilliance" of "their" idea...

Quote:
Except for the spite bit this is quite true. The government line is to dismiss any questions regarding the JSF not being suitable for the RAAF with "we can't tell you why because it's classified, but rest assured the JSF IS absolutely the best plane for Australia" sort of answers. It's been reported that speaking out against the JSF is now a severly career limiting move in the department of defence, but many RETIRED air force officers agree that the JSF is, at best, a poor fit for Australia's requirements. Also, Lockheed Martin is now a major advertiser in Australia's main aviation magazine (Australian Aviation) and provides regular articles praising the JSF and its project management through a PR firm called the Williams Foundation who they fund. Funnily, no dissenting opinions ever get printed...


Funnily enough, your tinfoil hat conspiracies aside, the Williams Foundation is comprised of former RAAF Senior officers (including a previous Chief of Air Force) and they have conducted their own analysis, printed reports of same and support RAAF's opinion on the best way forward for it's future combat fleet.

They also support the Super Hornet. Are we to infer then that they are on the payroll for Boeing as well? They never advertise Boeing though...

They are also sponsored by Chemring. Do you see a fanatical obsession with promoting the greater use of IR flares within ADF as a result of this sponsorship from them?

It's easy to throw mud, much harder to find solid evidence to base it on though. Something you seem to find very difficult to locate...

Quote:
To return to the subject of this thread, Kopp's consulting jobs for DSTO were all about capability projections for the region. He writes most of his articles from this perspective. He does get over enthusiastic but he's talking about the situation we'll face if mature versions of these thing's start popping up all over the world like the various flankers do now.


So, providing unsolicited "analysis" and submissions is considered "consulting" now is it? I suppose phoning someone in defence, begging off and asking them to call you back is consulting then too?
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Conan
PostPosted: Feb 28, 2010 - 04:41 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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jeffb wrote:


That's just it Shep it isn't an established fact. It's exactly the opposite of an established fact! Kopp and Goon are analysts not entrepreneurs, suggesting that the RAAF would hand over the upgrade of 40 odd airframes of Australia's most capable strike aircraft to a couple of analysts is laughable! The idea itself is just STUPID! Talk about jump the shark. Tell me Shep, do YOU believe a professional air force would do something like that? Seriously? Because if you do I've got a bridge you might be interested in buying. Wink LOL.


So, according to you, it is established "fact" that Goon and Kopp spent years of their professional lives formulating a formal response to a request for proposal for Australia's fighter replacement project out of the goodness of their hearts, is it?

The "Australian Industry Solution" was NOT a submission to the project office or a minister. It was a proposal to supply a capability to the Australian Defence Force from a group who were at that time, part of the Australian Defence Industry.

Kopp has admitted publicly, though without much evident relish, that they expected certain royalties to flow to them, should their proposal be selected.

It was a commercial proposal plain and simple and a direct rival to Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Eurofighter, SAAB and Dassault, all of whom made the exact same sort of response in relation to their own products to the AIR-6000 request for proposal. Try and paint them as patriots if you wish, but they provided a commercial proposal to Defence, plain and simple.

Quote:
All the maintenance and upgrades of these aircraft are handled by Boeing Australia at Amberley in Queensland:
http://www.defence.gov.au/TeamAustralia/weapons_integration_aircraft.htm
They've been doing it for years, they did the block upgrade of the F-111 avionics and hardware, why would the RAAF go anywhere else? LOL.


Actually Boeing holds the support contract and sub-contracts out to contractors such as Rosebank Engineering, Tasman Aviation Enterprises and other engineering companies.

AFTS expected to do the same...
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Code3
PostPosted: Feb 28, 2010 - 05:44 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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jeffb wrote:

Cue the anti-APA trolls. Rolling Eyes


Disagreeing with Kopp and Goon doesn't mean you're a troll. Most professionals in the industry disagree with these guys.
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Conan
PostPosted: Feb 28, 2010 - 02:22 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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geogen wrote:
Re: upgraded F-111/F-22 export scheme by APA... I personally think it was a valid proposal at the time and should be respected as such. I simply have to question the motives of those outright bashing the general concept. (other than mere point scoring on this Kopp guy). The near-militant opposition to the concept though only loses credibility imho.


Except F-22 can't and never could be exported...

Quote:
I mean, what could $30-40m investment per F-111 do today in terms of a 6,000 hr upgrade platform?? Is this a legit debate or flat out not? And perhaps... in lieu of export F-22, could there be another comparative alternative to F-35A, providing IOC squadrons sooner than 20018/19? Let's at least get real with this whole discussion folks (if we're going to engage in it going forward) and not get entrapped in the cheap, tit for tat cirucs of personal attacks to make ones point... my 2 cents.


Except it won't be $30-$40m per airframe, but rather more like $300-$400m per airframe...

It is a FACT that it cost Australia $600m and 8 years of development work just to integrate the AGM-142 Raptor missile onto the F-111 aircraft.

The "Evolved F-111" upgrade is talking about replacing the extant TF-30 engines with a more supportable and more powerful engine (F100 or similar) and re-engineering the airframe to suit the new engine, adding a new radar system, a complete new avionics system, a new EO/IR targetting system (internals anyway with extant Pavetack cradle mount), new EW system and a completely new weapons inventory.

RAAF estimated this work just for 17x platforms would cost in the vicinity of $5 Billion, is anything but low risk and estimated, based on previous upgrade work, that the development of this upgrade and risk reduction measures would take no less than 10 years...

I'd suggest that is a conservative estimate based on the issues with the AGM-142. The complete re-development of the aircraft besides the basic airframe is anything but a trivial exercise and would absolutely dwarf any such program, including the Hornet Upgrade Program in complexity, cost and overall risk.

All this to get a new level of capability from the Pig, but one that is still completely vulnerable to any credible fighter threat, without escorting fighters in a region "flooded" with high-end Sukhoi fighters...

Sorry, but either their analysis stands up or it doesn't. Irrespective of which fighter of choice you personally like, you can't believe their (IMHO) fairy tales about the fighter threat posed within our region and then credibly argue our primary strike aircraft should have no credible air defence capability...

They most definitely shot themselves in the foot with THAT argument...


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PostPosted: Feb 28, 2010 - 04:42 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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exec wrote:

OMG! This is unbelievable! This isn't just a bias, this is nonesense and simply not true:

PAK-FA 2,0 Ma target supercruise? Not true. (current target 1,5) - And this is stated where?
PAK-FA all aspect stealth? Laughing Not true.
PAK-FA extreme agility (better than F-22) Unknown but unlikely. - And why unlikely?
PAK-FA high power ESA? Unknown.
PAK-FA high SA? Unknown. The same level as the F-35? Unlikely.
Su-35 supercruising? Laughing Not true. - Depends on the definition M 1.5+ not true, M 1+ true
Su-35 extreme agility? Better than F-22? Not true! - based on what...?
Su-35 3D TVC? Not true. - True
Su-35 Sidelooking ESA? Not true. - Well +/-120° actually provides some side looking capability, though there are no dedicated side looking arrays yet.
Su-35 High power ESA. Yes, but not AESA.


See the bold notes.
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exec
PostPosted: Feb 28, 2010 - 05:33 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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[quote="Scorpion82"]
exec wrote:

PAK-FA 2,0 Ma target supercruise? Not true. (current target 1,5) - And this is stated where?

Lates PAK-FA requirements. Initially it was like 1,8-2,0 Ma, but after some time they've lowered it to 1,5 Ma.

Scorpion82 wrote:

PAK-FA extreme agility (better than F-22) Unknown but unlikely. - And why unlikely?

Becouse there is no reason why the PAK-FA should be dramaticly more agile than the F-22.


Scorpion82 wrote:

Su-35 supercruising? Laughing Not true. - Depends on the definition M 1.5+ not true, M 1+ true

So the F-16 is also a supercruising fighter.
No, really - Su-35 doesn't have supercruising engine and wasn't designed to be supercrusing fighter, especially with big missiles under wings.

Scorpion82 wrote:
Su-35 extreme agility? Better than F-22? Not true! - based on what...?

Higher hi-alt sustained turn rate, better T/W ratio...

Scorpion82 wrote:
Su-35 3D TVC? Not true. - True

Not true.

Scorpion82 wrote:
Su-35 Sidelooking ESA? Not true. - Well +/-120° actually provides some side looking capability, though there are no dedicated side looking arrays yet.

You're right
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energo
PostPosted: Feb 28, 2010 - 05:35 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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The observant reader will notice APA's use of "unknown", "likely", "yes or partial". Considering that APA base their assertions mostly on speculation the table contains surprisingly few "unknowns".

And herein lies a curious property of APA's scoring mechanism; even if everything about an aircraft is unknown it will still score "green" or better than any other aircraft with 100% known properties, but an overall "red" score.

So how good is APA's speculation? Somewhat imperfect. According to Lockheed the F-35 will employ weapons from the bays supersonically. In fact even 2000lb JDAMs, and AAMs right up to its maximum speed. Seems logical, considering that counter air is one of the F-35s primary missions. Lockheed also foresee a normal engine growth evolution over the F-35s life span.

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PostPosted: Feb 28, 2010 - 07:49 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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LMAO at everyone who's getting wound up about thrust vector nozzles. (talk about an overstatement!)

1 - The US has had TV technology since the 1980s (some even had thrust reversers for STOL reasons)
2 - TV nozzles have been tested on the F-15 and F-16 (3D in 1990s)
3 - Since the advent of TV tech in the US, ONLY the F-22 has had it included in it's design
4 - 'New' aircraft such as the F-15K or the F-16E Blk 60/70 don't use TV
5 - TV nozzles are heavy compared to their non-vector baseline nozzles
6 - TV nozzles are less durable compared to their non-vector baseline nozzles
7 - TV nozzles are more expensive compared to their non-vector baseline nozzles

Don't you think the US (or others besides our Russian buddies) would use TV on it's fighters if it believed the benefits outweighed the penalties? Shrug

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