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What might have happened if......



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duplex
PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 - 11:21 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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During Cuba missile crises in 1962,the legendary Curtis Lemay was very much in favor of direct air strikes in order to destroy Soviet missile bases on the Island .Kennedy on the other hand, has vehemently resisted the idea which resulted in a fierce struggle between the two.
What might have happened if Kennedy had listened to the General and sanctioned the use of force against the Soviet bases?

WW3? or Nothing?
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PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 - 01:13 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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WW3 would have happened. Lemay was a nut, and this comes from a former SAC puke. The guy was hell bent on nuking the Russians. He is even quoted as saying what is the use of having nukes if you don't use them. It's funny he is held up as some sort of God in the SAC circles, but in reading about the man he was really brilliany in some ways, and in other ways he was a nutjob.
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Meathook
PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 - 02:49 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hard to say what really might have happened, one thing is for sure, the world was scared. I was a kid (10 years old) back then. I remember the many television programs that were on daily surrounding the real event, it was scary too. As a kid I had no idea what it was all about, I don't think many really did.

Funny thing is (looking back) many folks though if we (kids) huddled under our desks or in a corner of the building that we might have a chance of surviving a nuclear explosion. Knowing what I do now, that thought was so crazy to even consider real....but it did go to show what little people in general knew of such events.

I think Russia really was bluffing, they wanted to test the young President and push their own agenda, Castro on the other hand was and still is a complete Putz, he risked his nation and millions of people for what really, just to be buddy, buddy with Russia...it was insane, the whole event.

I will take my hat off to President Kennedy though, although he too was scared (with good reason) he held firm and never backed out from the best interests of the US first, their future security and at that time, present security. If you think about it, if he had backed down, we would either still be living in fear (with the threat of nukes, next store basically hanging over our collective heads) or the Russians would have set up a huge base in Cuba being a constant threat to the US.

Russia toyed with the security of world as if life meant nothing, the threat of nuclear war did and still does effect the world, the effects of such a campaign would destroy the planet over time if not outright during the initial attacks, the fallout and related health problems would destroy us all over time.

I think General Lemay knew this too but really considered what it would be like living under the Russian control and I think he would rather have been dead. Having said that, I might agree with him on that point, after our country fighting so hard for freedom, the thought of being threatened or those freedoms being taken away, makes you change. If striking first would eliminate those fears, I could see where he might think or have that train of thought.

One thing is for sure, he helped make the USAF a power to be dealt with, he was a true patriot and only wanted a free and secure America at all costs, isn't that what we still want while promoting freedom globally? WE have to be strong, act strong...like the old expression states..."walk softly but carry a big stick"....Leman helped build a power that represented our big stick. I will not fault him for looking after our best interests.

Do I want a nuclear war...hell no, but would I engage in one to help save our way of life and try and protect our freedoms and way of life....in a heartbeat, guess I too am nutz but would push the button if the country needed me too (but after that...America and the world would never be the same again)...but life would go on...somewhere.

Good subject to consider collectively but we all got lucky but did that weaken us internationally? I don't think so, I think he showed we would not take any crap from anybody, I believe that still holds true today....least I sure hope
so.

Oh well, that was safe and fun to write about, I do think we are too soft these days, if we engage in armed conflict, we should go all out until the enemy is on their knees, then we should finish the job so that threat is gone for good...but I am "old school" I guess

See ya.........Meathook Out!
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duplex
PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 - 12:54 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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What sort of strike aircraft would have been used in 1962? I can't figure it out today.
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seat_dreamer
PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 - 01:34 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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I think the same aircraft used in the Vietnam war when it began. It's only a couple of years apart besides.

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Meathook
PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 - 03:07 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Back then, the USAF aircraft available (some I remember) where the F101, F-102, F100, B-58


I have to give this some more thought, but between the USAF and the US Navy, they had a good size arsenal to choose from

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HunterKiller
PostPosted: Sep 07, 2006 - 09:01 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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duplex wrote:
During Cuba missile crises in 1962,the legendary Curtis Lemay was very much in favor of direct air strikes in order to destroy Soviet missile bases on the Island .Kennedy on the other hand, has vehemently resisted the idea which resulted in a fierce struggle between the two.
What might have happened if Kennedy had listened to the General and sanctioned the use of force against the Soviet bases?
WW3? or Nothing?


Russians surely would have gone nuclear against US aircraft and US ships. Problably nuclear on US homeland too.

This is still unclear how many tactical nukes they had in Cuba, but submarines, tactical ballistic missiles (Luna) had surely nukes. Probably SA-2's and cruise missiles (russias had Komar-class missile boats in Cuba) too. Plus free-falling bombs from Il-28 Beagle aircraft. I think that MiG-21 were not nuclear-armed.

Launch authority for tac nukes was by field commanders in Cuba.

Plus US ship defences were not able to cope with incoming cruise missiles. Russian shipborn cruise missiles were pretty fearsome weapon this time - remember how they sunk israeli destroyer in Med.

Any way, first wave of US attack would have been smoked from sky.

This time were no appropriate protection against SAM-s. US anti SAM tactics were developed only in Vietnam.

F-hundred-wonderlemons were pretty much BS against superb MiG-21 dogfighters guided by GCI.
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Gums
PostPosted: Sep 08, 2006 - 06:33 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Salute!

All you yutes, PLZ find some good books on the subject and then read them.

First of all, if the Cuban Migs would have had a one-to-one kill ratio versus attacking U.S. fighter-bombers, then looks to this old fart like after the first ten minutes, the score would have been Cuba 100, USAF/USN 300.

The south part of Florida was literally sinking with USAF Huns and F-84's and prolly Thuds. Then there were a few wings of B-47's. Then a slew of US Navy folks. Then B-52's at southeast bases.

The big question was whether USSR would rally to support their Cuban "friends".

Personal opinion is that they would not have.

(note to Janitors: PLZ forgive this blatant political opinion, but I couldn't resist).

We should all be thankful that the USSR and the US came to an agreement before the bullets started flying. Bear in mind that a U-2 was shot down by an SA-2, so a few "bullets" did fly.

It was a scary few days, folks. And I can't remember another time when the world came so close to a very bad scenario. Looking back, and with lots more knowledge about the actual order of battle of both sides, I can understand how the whole thing came out the way it did.

So go read more books and try to ignore all the sensational press coverage.

That's what Gums sez ...

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HunterKiller
PostPosted: Sep 08, 2006 - 01:56 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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I just wanted to say that US conventional power was so overwhelming that Russians had no chance to respond with conventional means.

Russians had only one regiment of MiG-21F-13-s and one regiment of Il-28 Beagles. Thats no match for US numbers and their kills would not matter.

Very scary fact was, that presence of russian tac nukes was not known to Pentagon. They only knew that they have big medium range nukes.

But in reality - most of nukes vere tactical and those were good disepersed and camouflaged. So that there were no chance to destroy them. US would take out those Sandals and heavy stuff but not those Lunas, cruise missises and tac aircraft in first attack. And the launch authority was by field commanders - and communication with Moscow was pretty poor.

If milirary "falcons" and all those "bomber generals" would have get permission to attack, Soviets would have retaliated with tac nukes. US losses will depend only on question - were SA-2 nuclear warheads in Cuba or not? In Soviet Union PVO, EVERY division had 2 nukes avalable IN PEACETIME.

So if Sov's have had nukes for SA-2, they would have capability to eliminate virtually all incoming US aircraft. Those that are not melted, would have EMP effects, blinded pilots and so.

Please keep in mind that Soviet army in 60s was real fighting force, this is not the bullshit we saw in Afganistan.

US would respond by tac nukes, but sovs were dispersed on the jungle like in Vietnam.

It is many variables - but I am sure that till the nuc launch authority by field commanders, in case of US air attack on Sov's installation and and amphibious landing, they would have responded with nukes. Most of russian senior officers and generals were WWII men, this is not Russian army in Tschechnia.

And I am not sure that US know where all those medium-range missiles were. It is enough tho have 4-5 missiles left intact after first raid - and the sov's would probably vaporize all military gathered in Florida.

Can you tell that USAF was able to take out all medium range missiles in first attack. I am not sure, because same force proved not good in Vietnam in similar jungle/terrain conditions some years later. Thuds were good targets for SAM-s and AAA.

But if Russians had some spare missiles in jungle well hidden?

It would certainly end with WWWIII. And the Russians motherlands will was not relevant, because nuclear launch authority was in Cuba. Moscow did not control them at all - this U-2 shotdown is good proof.

What Kennedy did was right. Respect.

USAF and USN were not able to eliminate all this nuc arsenal in Cuba 1962. Vietnam is good proof.
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Stefaan
PostPosted: Sep 10, 2006 - 02:12 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Gums wrote:

Personal opinion is that they would not have.

(note to Janitors: PLZ forgive this blatant political opinion, but I couldn't resist).


Smile

No problem, we have the blanket "no politics" guideline so we can step in if a political discussion turns into a flamewar (certain polital topics are more prone to that than others Smile )

stefaan

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avon1944
PostPosted: Oct 14, 2006 - 09:49 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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duplex wrote:

During Cuba missile crises in 1962,the legendary Curtis Lemay was very much in favor of direct air strikes in order to destroy Soviet missile bases

What might have happened if Kennedy had listened to the General and sanctioned the use of force against the Soviet bases?
WW3? or Nothing?

WW3!!
The Soviets had boxed themselves into a corner. The nuclear weapons on Cuba were under the command of the 'on scene' commander. Some generals in Politbureau (sp?) had given him this permission to use these nuclear weapons to insure the mission would be accomplished. Should the USA attack Cuba, he was authorized to use nuclear weapons without any further word from Moscow.

According to a Soviet general interviewed on the History Channel, the USSR had done a great job of bluffing. There were around three hundred nuclear warheads available for combat at any given time to them. The spy Oleg Penkovsky had given the USA the Soviet evaluation of their own capabilities. These were Soviet Army, Air Force, GRU and, KGB reports. In addition to the limited number of warheads, and the reliability of Soviet ICBM's was very low. This meant the only way the USSR was a real threat to the USA is if they built up and planned for an world wide offensive against the USA and Western Europe at a specific time. By this time, the USA had around five thousand warheads and was fully capable of using them.
Gen. LeMay wanted Cuba to be the start of an offensive to wipe out the USSR and PRC! Many others in command positions felt the same way.

While the USA's agreement with the USSR to remove the IRBM's from Turkey was not part of the agreement the USA had with thee USSR through the UN. It was a PR move because the USA had already start discussions with Italy to remove the IRBM's stationed there. The Jupiter Missile was obsolete.

This was also the first real usage of SOSUS. It detected four Foxtrot Class subs going to Cuba and the US Navy was able to force three of them to the surface!

President Kennedy was brilliant in keeping the focus of the dispute to the local area in and around Cuba.

It was a frightening time, I was a senior in high school and my school had just completed building a new gym who walls were re-enforced concrete. The Mt. View, Cal. Fire Department had asked permission to place their fire trucks on the south wall in effort to protect the fire trucks. (San Francisco was fifty miles north of us.) My girlfriend's school asked the parents to pack a three day supply of clothing in a suitcase just in case something happened and the girls were forced to remain at school. I had a couple of friends from the previous years senior class who were in the USMC, who were being moved to the southeastern US. It was very real and frightening to me.

Adrian
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LWF
PostPosted: Oct 15, 2006 - 06:31 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Plus, we knew that there were nukes we couldn't hit from the air. We would've had to invade by land in order to get them all.
I consider us fortunate that the whole incident was resolved semi-peacefully.

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