| Author |
Message |
|
sufaviper
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 04:46 AM
|
|
|
Active Member

Joined: Nov 01, 2011 - 04:30 PM
Posts: 131
Status: Offline
|
quicksilver-
rebird87 simply divided projected program cost of ~$387B by the 2,443 airframes to get the $162M number, the same method that says an F-22 cost $200M+.
Sufa Viper |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Sponsor
|
Posted: May 26, 2013 - 7:19 AM
|
|
|
F-16.net Sponsor
|
|
|
|
 |
|
redbird87
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 04:57 AM
|
|
|
Active Member

Joined: Aug 11, 2007 - 09:00 PM
Posts: 159
Status: Offline
|
|
quicksilver wrote:
Dude, in this thread alone, you've used $120M twice and $162M twice. Which is it? Please tell us which 'unit cost' you're talking about, which variant, and which LRIP lot -- since they all vary accordingly. Then, tell us how many production numbers DoD has taken out of the buy since 2007, and tell us why economies of scale don't matter; make sure you point out the concurrency monster and make us more afraid.
What is a 'set' of F-35s?
Great question quick. This true cost thing has been harder to detect than the aircraft itself.
A "flight" I suppose you would understand.
Correct sufa. That is the only way to determine a true unit cost. $120M is the current top-end cost they are pitching to the hill, but the those number don't add up with $396 billion total program cost. |
Last edited by redbird87 on Jun 21, 2012 - 05:02 AM; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
 |
|
popcorn
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 04:58 AM
|
|
|
Elite 2K

Joined: Sep 24, 2008 - 09:55 AM
Posts: 2047
Status: Online!
|
|
southernphantom wrote:
I don't see how it wouldn't be enough, except for those Ace Combat types used to 150 AIM-9Ms and 60 AMRAAMs. No competitor system can carry more.
Yup, those guys and their friends who seem to have this vision of the F-35 as a lonewolf facing down the horde by it's lonesome. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
bigjku
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 05:05 AM
|
|
|
Senior member

Joined: Jun 12, 2012 - 10:00 PM
Posts: 279
Status: Offline
|
|
sufaviper wrote:
quicksilver-
rebird87 simply divided projected program cost of ~$387B by the 2,443 airframes to get the $162M number, the same method that says an F-22 cost $200M+.
Sufa Viper
Which is but one way to account for a program and a really crappy way to make decisions today. No matter how much you cry and whine about it the money spent on R&D and testing is not coming back.
Assuming we are not debating if a certain nation should have an air force the relevant cost for decision making today are the cost to get F-35's built and R&D finished from today and going forward weighed against those to build something else. If you talk about something like a Silent Eagle or souped up F-16's then you have to account for the cost for R&D for those aircraft too.
The type of accounting that leads to the numbers from Redbird are not proper ones for decision making. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
delvo
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 05:24 AM
|
|
|
Senior member

Joined: Aug 15, 2011 - 05:06 AM
Posts: 409
Status: Offline
|
| Against enemies of that caliber and quantity, you could beef up your number of weapons by carrying external missiles, without worrying about turning into giant flying "shoot me" beacons. With the enemy's radar signatures and your more advanced radar & other sensors, their spheres of vulnerability to you would still be much larger than your spheres of vulnerability to them, with their more primitive radars trying to track your still-tiny signatures (essentially only the signature of some of your missiles, and only until you fire them). |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
redbird87
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 05:28 AM
|
|
|
Active Member

Joined: Aug 11, 2007 - 09:00 PM
Posts: 159
Status: Offline
|
bigjku,
From strictly a military point of view, you may be correct. But this is an economic and political question as well. In case you haven't noticed, we have a bit of a budget issue in this country. It's amusing how many techno-folks on sites like this seem to assume there is an unlimited supply of capital available for procurement of these things. Furthermore, those of us in the military need to not only remember, but embrace the reality that we serve at the pleasure of and under the control of civilian elected officials. To be upset with that reality puts one at odds with the constitution. This reality makes the politics of the situation not only relevant, but crucial. Because of the mismanagement and lack of transparency of this program, and more critically our fiscal dilemma, it is easy to see the number of units purchased getting significantly reduced. Of course then, as was the sad fact with the F-22 (a truly great plane IMO), the R&D and testing cost will account for a much larger amount per unit. You can be derogatory and call it crying or whining if you wish. I call it being a pi$$ed off tax payer. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
bigjku
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 06:37 AM
|
|
|
Senior member

Joined: Jun 12, 2012 - 10:00 PM
Posts: 279
Status: Offline
|
|
redbird87 wrote:
bigjku,
From strictly a military point of view, you may be correct. But this is an economic and political question as well. In case you haven't noticed, we have a bit of a budget issue in this country. It's amusing how many techno-folks on sites like this seem to assume there is an unlimited supply of capital available for procurement of these things. Furthermore, those of us in the military need to not only remember, but embrace the reality that we serve at the pleasure of and under the control of civilian elected officials. To be upset with that reality puts one at odds with the constitution. This reality makes the politics of the situation not only relevant, but crucial. Because of the mismanagement and lack of transparency of this program, and more critically our fiscal dilemma, it is easy to see the number of units purchased getting significantly reduced. Of course then, as was the sad fact with the F-22 (a truly great plane IMO), the R&D and testing cost will account for a much larger amount per unit. You can be derogatory and call it crying or whining if you wish. I call it being a pi$$ed off tax payer.
A few things.
1. It is dangerous to assume you have any idea what the background of people you don't know are. My involvement with the military is tangential only. However what I do for a living is provide financing and manage capital. So if you think that I believe money just falls out of someones butt then you are sadly mistaken.
2. Lecturing people on civilian control of the military is, in my view, a sign of desperation from someone taking a beating on this subject on several levels and is frankly insulting to myself and everyone here. Did any of us at any point suggest that the military alone should be making these decisions or that civilians are not over the military? If you want to debate matters of the constitution I am more than willing but bringing it up here is just odd.
3. It is fine to be an angry taxpayer. But I would hope that people making actual decisions are smarter than the average angry taxpayer if this is an example of what you are calling for.
To put this in context of a business decision lets say I spend years developing and am horribly over budget to create my Mk. II widget maker that makes three times as many widgets as my Mk I model for the same cost. That certainly sucks and it is one proper way to account for the cost of my Mk II widget maker to take the cost of building it plus the R&D cost for the thing.
But that would not be the proper way to make decisions going forward. Assuming that I need to keep making widgets (assuming we still need an air force of certain capability) I have to decide between a Mk I widget maker and a Mk II widget maker. Assuming there is demand for all the production the relevant numbers for this decision at this point are the cost of buying the one vs the cost of buying the other. The R&D cost on them no longer matters as it is already a sunk cost.
That is not me assuming the military can operate without regard to cost (or engaging in whatever strange military budget coup that you seem to have concocted). It is me as a taxpayer asking that decisions be made based on what makes the most sense given the reality we are faced with today.
All I have to do is look around at what it would cost to buy something else of a modern vintage and then put around the support that would let it do the F-35's mission to realize that would cost more money. Assuming we want to have an Air Force with a certain capability then it needs planes. The F-35, as expensive as it might be, is probably the cheapest option out there to fill that role.
I can make financial statements say any number of things I want and have them all be "accurate and truthful". Different kind of assessments allow me to do different things. I invite you to attempt to explain how accounting for cost in the manner you are is a solid basis for making acquisition decisions because I don't think you can do it. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
redbird87
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 02:34 PM
|
|
|
Active Member

Joined: Aug 11, 2007 - 09:00 PM
Posts: 159
Status: Offline
|
|
Quote:
A few things.
1. It is dangerous to assume you have any idea what the background of people you don't know are. My involvement with the military is tangential only. However what I do for a living is provide financing and manage capital. So if you think that I believe money just falls out of someones butt then you are sadly mistaken.
2. Lecturing people on civilian control of the military is, in my view, a sign of desperation from someone taking a beating on this subject on several levels and is frankly insulting to myself and everyone here. Did any of us at any point suggest that the military alone should be making these decisions or that civilians are not over the military? If you want to debate matters of the constitution I am more than willing but bringing it up here is just odd.
3. It is fine to be an angry taxpayer. But I would hope that people making actual decisions are smarter than the average angry taxpayer if this is an example of what you are calling for.
To put this in context of a business decision lets say I spend years developing and am horribly over budget to create my Mk. II widget maker that makes three times as many widgets as my Mk I model for the same cost. That certainly sucks and it is one proper way to account for the cost of my Mk II widget maker to take the cost of building it plus the R&D cost for the thing.
But that would not be the proper way to make decisions going forward. Assuming that I need to keep making widgets (assuming we still need an air force of certain capability) I have to decide between a Mk I widget maker and a Mk II widget maker. Assuming there is demand for all the production the relevant numbers for this decision at this point are the cost of buying the one vs the cost of buying the other. The R&D cost on them no longer matters as it is already a sunk cost.
That is not me assuming the military can operate without regard to cost (or engaging in whatever strange military budget coup that you seem to have concocted). It is me as a taxpayer asking that decisions be made based on what makes the most sense given the reality we are faced with today.
All I have to do is look around at what it would cost to buy something else of a modern vintage and then put around the support that would let it do the F-35's mission to realize that would cost more money. Assuming we want to have an Air Force with a certain capability then it needs planes. The F-35, as expensive as it might be, is probably the cheapest option out there to fill that role.
I can make financial statements say any number of things I want and have them all be "accurate and truthful". Different kind of assessments allow me to do different things. I invite you to attempt to explain how accounting for cost in the manner you are is a solid basis for making acquisition decisions because I don't think you can do it.
BK
First, I'm an MBA and an auditor so I'm a novice at talking about economics. While on active duty as an Air Defense officer, I was apart of an state-of-the-art threat air defense survivability project run out of NTC and Nellis AFB. And as a reservist, I've had to depend on CAS before in combat to safeguard the lives of the men I was leading and accomplish the mission. Supporting troops, is ultimately the F-35s primary mission. So I am somewhat qualified to discuss this on multiple levels.
I'm sorry you are insulted. You and anyone else on here should realize any frustration conveyed isn't aimed at you personally, but rather those in charge of the program, both from Lockheed and the Pentagon.
With this cost basis thing you won't let go of, you, in my opinion, are advocating the exact same shell game as those that have managed this project. "The R&D cost?? you shouldn't count those in the unit cost." The problem is, they just keep throwing all cost over-runs into that black hole and falling back on that same position. When will this thing be operational? When was it promised? How much will have been spent per unit? What was promised? The performance record from those perspectives is not looking good at this point.
You state you'd have R&D cost with alternative systems. Well no kiddin??? I never claimed otherwise. But the lines of BS coming out of Dallas and Washington on this are never ending. When the F-22 costs went through roof, and then through the stratosphere, they tried to soften things saying "well a lot of the R&D money will go into the F-35, so it was well invested." I bought that then. Now that the F-35 costs are going ballistic, and I mean WAY over anything that was promised, what are these costs going for? The F-70? I just not buying it. They are going to pay Lockheed's 4% dividend, let's just be honest. It's profit, plain and simple. And I don't blame the businessmen at Lockheed. If they can get the government to pony up $396 billion despite sad customer service, more power to them I guess.
But all this should be taken in the context of a country who has overwhelming air power presently (mainly by the skill of its combat veteran pilots - not technology). And from a country who's ground forces have not been attacked by any significant air power since 1945.
I realize that staying on top will require investment. I'd just like to see us be smarter about it. It's frustrating to see one contractor like Mac (now Boeing) deliver capable aircraft on-time and on-target with the original budget. So I know it can be done. Back when Mac screwed up and A-12, they paid the price (and rightfully so). It looks like Lockheed has no such worries. I don't like that. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
river_otter
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 04:07 PM
|
|
|
Active Member

Joined: Aug 18, 2011 - 10:42 AM
Posts: 176
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
|
So the solution to the F-35 development costs being high is to build fewer of them, and then spend even more money de novo to develop a vastly inferior replacement aircraft based on 1960s technology?
Development costs are sunk money at this point. All that matters, now, is per-aircraft build costs, and how much capability you are buying with each of those built aircraft. Your A-12 example is a perfect example of this. We paid how much for the A-12? And how much capability did we get out of that? Development is development, build is build. To try to punish the build costs because the development went over budget in the past is like cutting off your own nose because you're angry at your face. Who suffers for that?
As Sun Tzu pointed out, it is expensive to pay for a top-notch military. But to not pay what it costs, will cost you everything. And the costliest of all is to pay for a half-assed military, because then you're paying nearly the cost of a good one, and you still wind up losing everything. If a tree falls on your roof unexpectedly, you cancel your family vacation to Disneyland and work overtime. You don't just decide not to fix the roof because it would upset your budget. If the F-35 costs have gone up more than expected (and in terms of build costs, they haven't!), we have to cut other things to pay for them. And/or raise taxes. They're more important. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Scorpion82
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 04:45 PM
|
|
|
Forum Veteran

Joined: Oct 07, 2007 - 07:52 PM
Posts: 992
Status: Offline
|
|
SpudmanWP wrote:
6. Both the 9x and AMRAAM are capable of "over the shoulder" shots. It's a matter of LOAL capability, not final target aspect. So no, the F-35 does not lose it's EODAS advantages when only carrying the AMRAAM.
LOAL is just part of it, HOBS is what's of relevance here and I want see a single AMRAAM being fired against a target situated behind the launch aircraft. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Scorpion82
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 04:47 PM
|
|
|
Forum Veteran

Joined: Oct 07, 2007 - 07:52 PM
Posts: 992
Status: Offline
|
|
delvo wrote:
Against enemies of that caliber and quantity, you could beef up your number of weapons by carrying external missiles, without worrying about turning into giant flying "shoot me" beacons. With the enemy's radar signatures and your more advanced radar & other sensors, their spheres of vulnerability to you would still be much larger than your spheres of vulnerability to them, with their more primitive radars trying to track your still-tiny signatures (essentially only the signature of some of your missiles, and only until you fire them).
Add the pylons to that... And who says that the enemies radars will be oh so inferior? |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
haavarla
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 06:12 PM
|
|
|
Forum Veteran

Joined: Jul 28, 2009 - 08:36 PM
Posts: 573
Status: Offline
|
Scorp@
Obviously LM does..
And someone, pls remind me again on the missile burn time, effective range and energy loss upon an 'over the shoulder missile launch'? |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
river_otter
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 06:34 PM
|
|
|
Active Member

Joined: Aug 18, 2011 - 10:42 AM
Posts: 176
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
|
|
haavarla wrote:
And someone, pls remind me again on the missile burn time, effective range and energy loss upon an 'over the shoulder missile launch'?
You're not going to be shooting over the shoulder anywhere near maximum missile range. If you had that kind of distance to work with, you'd turn and shoot them in the face. You'll be shooting well under maximum range, at a target that is itself closing on your location at transsonic to supersonic speeds. So the burn time, effective range, and energy loss can all be safely summed up as a reminder to you as "more than adequate." |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
shingen
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 07:31 PM
|
|
|
Forum Veteran

Joined: Jan 30, 2010 - 03:27 AM
Posts: 570
Location: California
Status: Offline
|
Gee, maybe the fact that the US has fielded the following fighter AESA's:
63V3
79
77
81 is still in development.
How many other fighter AESA's are in SERVICE being used and exercised and having lots of practical data on how to use AESA?
Oh yeah, none.
Keep trying.
Edit:
I forgot 63V2, 82, and 80.
IRL practical experience with a system matters. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
haavarla
|
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 - 08:41 PM
|
|
|
Forum Veteran

Joined: Jul 28, 2009 - 08:36 PM
Posts: 573
Status: Offline
|
|
Quote:
You're not going to be shooting over the shoulder anywhere near maximum missile range. If you had that kind of distance to work with, you'd turn and shoot them in the face. You'll be shooting well under maximum range, at a target that is itself closing on your location at transsonic to supersonic speeds. So the burn time, effective range, and energy loss can all be safely summed up as a reminder to you as "more than
Thx for making my point.
When an F-35 have to launch an 'over the shoulder missile', wouldn't it be fair to say it is allready on someones scope?
more than Possible in an unfavoured position, so lets say the effective missile range get chopped down to 65-75%.
Would this be more than adequate?
Poor choice of words i'd say.. |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|