Forum: General F-35 Forum

Exclusive: U.S. sees lifetime cost of F-35 fighter at $1.45 trillion
Reuters via MSNBC

"The government now projects that the total cost to develop, buy and operate the Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will be $1.45 trillion over the next 50-plus years, including inflation, according to an internal Pentagon document obtained by Reuters."

"...plan to buy 2,443 of the new radar-evading, supersonic warplanes, plus 14 development aircraft, in coming decades. It includes estimated operating and maintenance costs of $1.11 trillion, and development and procurement costs of $332 billion."

"The new baseline forecasts the average cost of the F-35 fighter, including research and development (R&D) and inflation, will be $135 million per plane, plus an additional $26 million for the F135 engine built by Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies Corp.

In 2012 dollars, the average cost of each single-seat, single-engine plane, including R&D, would be $112.5 million, plus $22 million for the engine.

This is the first year that the government has separated out the cost of the plane and the engine, and comparison figures were not immediately available."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35678731#.T3Pu4JdSQ7o

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Quote:

INCREASES DUE TO GOVERNMENT CHANGES

Defense analyst Loren Thompson said three quarters of the cost increases on the F-35 program were linked to government changes in the scope of the program, and the way it was estimating costs.

For instance, he said, the Pentagon initially planned to station the plane at 33 bases, but later changed the number to 49. It initially calculated operating costs over 30 years, but then chose a longer timeframe of 50 years, he said.

"The program costs appear to be rising much faster than they actually are because the government keeps changing how it calculates things," Thompson said.

So it isn't really the platform that is cranking up the cost...is it?

And given that there has been an increase in testing, it would be simple enough to deduce that the cost would go up by about 25% for the countries picking up the tab for the R&D bill.

Canada is not one of these countries.

UPDATE 1-Lockheed F-35 fighter costs rise 4.3 pct-Pentagon Thu, 29th Mar 2012 By Andrea Shalal-Esa

http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp?Ar ... ctPentagon

"...The new cost data on the F-35 fighter will be reflected in a mandatory annual report that the Pentagon is due to deliver to Congress later Thursday [yesterday?]...."

"...The cost of the F135 engine, built by Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies Corp, rose 9.7 percent, or $5.6 billion, largely because of an increase in the number of initial spares, revised escalation indexes and smaller near-term production numbers...."

JSF Costs Escalate Again
Jen DiMascio | AW

"The cost of the Pentagon’s largest weapon system continues to grow, as a Pentagon official contends that the increases are being brought under control.

According to a Pentagon report delivered to Congress March 29, the cost of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is inching higher, rising 4.3% to $395.7 billion in the last year. That Pentagon report was delivered the same day that the Government Accountability Office pointed out that cost growth on the JSF makes up more than half of the cost increases of the Pentagon’s largest 96 programs. It represents 21% of the overall portfolio."

"The Pentagon has re-approved the program to start low-rate production, a decision that was pulled back after breeching congressional cost targets in June 2010. Cost increases were driven by slower production in the U.S. and abroad and higher-than-planned labor costs.

The cost of the Pratt & Whitney’s F135 engine is also up, growing 9.7% to $63.8 billion primarily because of an increase in spare parts.

"Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) warned the Pentagon that letting negotiations drag on for the next set of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters could compromise fiscal 2013 funding. Lawmakers have reduced funding for the F-35 program in the past, citing delays in prior contract negotiations, Cornyn said last week. And the fifth lot of advanced fighter jets, for which money was appropriated a year ago, is still not on contract, he said.

Kendall, nominated to become the Pentagon’s next acquisition chief, said the Defense Department has an undefinitized contract for the fifth lot of advanced fighter jets and is working to negotiate a final price. The Pentagon hopes to streamline the negotiating process for the next two lots of aircraft, he said during his nomination hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Cornyn replied that the program needs better clarity. “Since we put all of our eggs in the F-35 basket … we’d better take care of the basket,” Cornyn said."

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... te%20Again

Ooof, what was that thread about Wheeler being a fake / a lair?

arkadyrenko wrote:

Ooof, what was that thread about Wheeler being a fake / a lair?

Wheeler has developed some pretty good contacts over the years. Discounting what he says out of hand is being rather shortsighted.

arkadyrenko wrote:

Ooof, what was that thread about Wheeler being a fake / a liar?

Yeah...I have to give him credit on this one. As Maus92 said, he does seem to have at least a few credible/reliable contacts.

Well who knew that adding 20 years of operating costs would increase the total cost of a project?

Wheeler is a genius, pure genius I tell ya.

We should nominate him for the Nobel Arithmetic Prize

maus92 - my thoughts were that once Wheeler had come up with a concrete number, not just "costs are going up," he must have been leaked something. Which suggests that there are officials in the program office that are at least skeptical of the JSF program.

OK, it's not $1.45T - now it's $1.51T

Lockheed F-35 Cost Estimate by U.S. Increases 9% in Year
Tony Capaccio | Bloomberg

"Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)’s F-35 fighter jet, the U.S. military’s most expensive weapons program, will cost $1.51 trillion, a 9 percent increase from the estimate a year ago, according to Pentagon officials.

The program’s projected “life cycle cost” -- including development since 1994, production of 2,443 jets and 55 years of support -- increased from $1.38 trillion in 2010, the officials said today in a briefing for reporters."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-3 ... -says.html

I give up. When having my Camaro restored, at some point, I had to give up keeping track of what the total cost was (pointless pain) and focus only on the monthly payments as it was too far along to quit. I'm not sure what point there is in crying over spilled-milk (non-recurring development costs) now that the plane is already in production. That money is gone. As far as I'm concerned, flyaway cost is all that matters; and maintenance (as with my Camaro again) will get better and cheaper over time. Besides, what the hell are we gonna do about it? Truncating the program would be akin to parking my Camaro in the front yard and never driving it again because of premium gas prices.

Hey let's run it out a hundred years and make it an even $2 trillion. (Give it time, someone will do it.)

sferrin wrote:

Hey let's run it out a hundred years and make it an even $2 trillion. (Give it time, someone will do it.)

Don't forget to include the costs of de-militarizing aircraft for static display and museums' maintenance/fire-insurance costs.

Sounds ridiculous, but when inflation included, as with the F35, what will a car or a house will cost in 2067 (55 years)?

Or, in comparison, costs of jets in 1957 > 2012.

Late sixties, one could buy a hundred light weight jetfighters for roughly half a million dollars … All in!!
Netherlands: total package deal $600 million: 105 NF5’s, delivered 1971.

The media is aware of this, but does not explain this to the public. In general most people do forget the price of their houses did raise at least with 300 or 400% last two or three decades.

When a Typhoon, Rafale or a F18 would fly till 2067, these costs as well would be tremendous high as a F35.

To put in context about how much the costs have grown for the F-35, back in 1997-2001, the SARs listed the CTOL unit flyaway cost estimate at $28M ($37M in 2012 dollars.)

Forum: General F-35 Forum

Not $1T, not $1.4T: Pentagon revises F-35 costs to $1.45T