Forum: Program and politics

Other than the word of 'one US senator' here are some other words about 'stealth for all and all for stealth'.

F-35 Partners Get Equal Stealth: Le Bourget, France — John A. Tirpak June/24/2011

http://www.airforce-magazine.com/DRArch ... ealth.aspx

“International partners on the F-35 will enjoy a stealth capability on the fighter equal to that of the US versions, according to F-35 program office officials. Maj. Gen. C.D. Moore, deputy director of the F-35 pro-gram office, gave a non-committal answer during a press conference here this week at the Paris Air Show when a reporter asked about the level of stealth available to foreign users.

International reporters have long hinted that the United States would hold back some capability. However in a subsequent statement issued by the F-35 program office, officials said "the quick answer to the statement regarding partners being less stealthy than the US is 'no.' (Partners will have same capability)." The program officials noted that the stealth aspects of some partner versions will vary slightly due to their inclusion of some unique gear, such as drag chutes, but it is "a program objective to not impact [low-observable] characteristics. It is our intent to produce a common solution to ensure interoperability for coalition operations as well as production affordability.”
_______________

The Goodly Senator [That is in lieu of calling him an AlkieHole] prolly misspoke [slurring his words and phrases]. Here is my take on it (original then my edit). Very Happy

Delays, cost overruns have long plagued Joint Strike Fighter jet By JAMES ROSEN | McClatchy-Tribune News Service January 28, 2012

http://www.islandpacket.com/2012/01/28/ ... -long.html

"...Another way to lower the unit price is to open the F-35 to foreign sales. This plane, I think, is going to wow the world. "Making airplanes is not about creating jobs, it's about protecting America, but it has the side benefit of creating jobs. "To good allies we will sell the plane, but it's not going to be the most advanced version. The UK, Canada, we may even sell the F-35 to Gulf Arab states."

OR

"...Another way to lower the unit price is to open the F-35 to foreign sales. This plane, I think, is going to wow the world. "Making airplanes is not about creating jobs, it's about protecting America, but it has the side benefit of creating jobs. "To good allies the UK, Canada, we will sell the plane. We may even sell the F-35 to Gulf Arab states. but it's not going to be the most advanced version."

F-16.net Sponsor

I find it interesting that you're just not talking about the whole integration piece. Don't have an effective response? It seems that your argument now is that by the magical power of exchange rates Korea will turn out cheap fighters. That still ignores the fact that Korea has extremely limited experience in producing high end customers and has not been finding too much success in selling the T-50 internationally. However according to you, that's not going to be a problem and somehow Korea is going to succeed in this market.

slowman2 wrote:

hb_pencil wrote:

And despite all of these advantages, the Japanese found it nearly impossible to produce a cost effective fighter. That's my concern about Korea's intent.

Because Japan is a high-cost country with a self-imposed export ban(until now).

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Japan is a world class manufacturing power

Choked by a high yen exchange rate.

Its still one of the world;s leading exporters, particularly of high end aviation systems. Furthermore the combination of a high yen actually could have made it more affordable for the Japanese domestic market, increasing its PPP to buy US made components more cheaply. Yet even with relatively high production rates (200+ F-15Js for example) it was unable to produce an affordable fighter.

slowman2 wrote:

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France is a manufacturing power; the European partners of the Cassidian are world class manufacturing powers. Japan, France, and the UK are bonafide aviation manufacturing powers. Yet all of them find it extremely difficult to offer a cost effective fighter alone and are exiting the market.

Because they are all high-cost/low-efficiency(save for Japan) countries stranggled by high exchange rates.

Yeah, I guess that explains why Airbus is the world's largest aircraft manufacturer and Germany's is the world's second largest export economy.

Frankly, that's one of the dumbest things you've ever said.

slowman2 wrote:

I give you an illustration. While Japanese electronics companies are reporting record losses(Panasonic lost $10 billion in 2011, Sony $3 billion), Korean electronics companies are posting record profits, selling exactly the same kind of product that Japanese are selling. How can this be? The difference between an overvalued currency(Yen) and an undervalued currency(Won).

Could also be a host of economic factors like oh, I don't know, sluggish economic growth in Japan for the past 20 years, poor strategic priorities/choices made by companies, a deep recession in its largest trading partner.

But no, I guess its all due to the simple easy explanation of an overvalued currency.

slowman2 wrote:

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It was hyperbole... though not that much. The US still intends to purchase 2,400 units and there are at least 400 foreign orders. However even at 2000, its 1700 more than the best projections of the the Korean fighter program.

The Super Hornet with a production run of slightly over 400 for the US Navy cost a fraction of F-35($80 million to the US military as opposed to $200 million for F-35A). Even the upgraded Silent Hornet offering same level of avionics suits and frontal aspect stealth as the export-model F-35 cost half as much as an F-35A.

First, the current flyaway for a F-35 is $118 million. And the cost of one in 4 years time will be $88 million (see the AF's FY2013 budget request.) Furthermore budget estimates for the F-35 and current F-15Ks put the cost differential as 20% more for the Eagle. There is no estimate as what an F-15SE would be but it would certainly be in excess of $110 million.

There is no such thing as an export model F-35, all F-35As are the same except for customer desired customizations (such as the F-35I for israel with extra plug-ins and the dragchute on the CF-35). The F-15SE by Boeing's admission does not possess even the frontal aspect stealth of a F-35.

slowman2 wrote:

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No, its a multi-role fighter.

Minimal A2A capability.

Oops I was wrong, this is the dumbest comment you've made.

slowman2 wrote:

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good acceleration

LM admitted that F-35 was slower in acceleration to F-16 and F/A-18.

Yeah vs a clean config F-16. Add one gas bag and anything more than the 2 wingtip winders and the F-35 has superior acceleration to either of those fighters.

slowman2 wrote:

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and top tier sensors

J-20, PAK-FA, Su-35, and even the Super Hornet have more powerful radars.

Oh, praytell what radar does the J-20 have, given the chinese have released no information about it. Oh, and please explain how is the AN/APG-79 and Irbis Radars superior to the AN/APG-81.

Frankly, you're looking more and more like a troll.

hb_pencil wrote:

Frankly, you're looking more and more like a troll.

Well I was thinking more in the realm of "has direct ties to Boeing." But hey I could be wrong.

slowman2 wrote:

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3. There is absolutely ZERO evidence that the F-18E/F has the same frontal aspect RCS of the F-35

But that's what Boeing's business model is based on; that they could match the frontal RCS of export model F-35 with modified Eagles and Hornets. The very fact that a Strike Eagle could match an export model F-35's frontal RCS rating shows how much it is downgraded from the US versions.

Then again, I think an argument based on Boeing's business model says it all. Just because Boeing bases a business model on having the same front aspect RCS as F-35, doesn't mean it is true. Additionally, please explain how one plane carrying 2 large bombs and 2 missiles internally has the same RCS as another carrying 2 large bombs and 2 missiles externally.

Sufa Viper

Slowman is a known troll,and has been banned from at least two defence related sites that I'm aware of - he's got a suite of knee jerk prompts, one of which is the "export configuration" LO F35, usually citing a speech from the US Ambassador to Australia when button holed on the subject. Google around a bit and you'll find his name and the same set of claims regarding the F35.

If you're curious how this plays out, then this tail end of a thread on StrategyPage will clue you on for the wonderful rollercoaster of arguing with Slowman.

http://www.strategypage.com/militaryfor ... age24.aspx

hb_pencil wrote:

I find it interesting that you're just not talking about the whole integration piece.

I don't have time to reply(busy) and I will get back to you when I find some.

In the meanwhile, an update on Japan situation

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/02/2 ... 4R20120222

Quote:

Japan warns U.S. price of F-35 fighter must not rise
By Rie Ishiguro
TOKYO | Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:10am IST

(Reuters) - Japan has repeatedly warned the United States against price rises in Lockheed Martin Corp's (LMT.N) new F-35 fighter jet, its top government spokesman said on Wednesday, after U.S. and Lockheed officials noted delays in orders will increase its total cost.

The comments from Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura come after Japan's Sankei newspaper cited unidentified U.S. government officials as saying that Japan had threatened that it may even cancel its orders if prices climbed.

Japan picked the F-35 as its next mainstay fighter in December, choosing it over combat-proven but less stealthy rivals.

"When we were selecting the fighter, we asked those making the proposals to strictly observe their proposed prices and supply schedules. Japan has conveyed this to the U.S. from time to time," Fujimura told a news conference.

The Pentagon last week confirmed plans to put off orders for 179 F-35s over the next five years to save $15.1 billion, a move that Lockheed executive vice president Tom Burbage told Reuters would increase the price of the plane somewhat.

Canadian officials have been told the price of their jets would increase by a nominal percentage amount "in the low single digits" as a result of the U.S. slowdown.

Japan's Defense Ministry has said each jet would cost 8.9 billion yen, or 9.9 billion yen including spare parts. The ministry plans to buy 4 jets in the year beginning in April and 42 units eventually.

What this English article doesn't have is the threat of F-35 deal cancellation made by the Japanese official, which is the buzz in Japan right now.

slowman2 wrote:

hb_pencil wrote:

I find it interesting that you're just not talking about the whole integration piece.

I don't have time to reply(busy) and I will get back to you when I find some.

In the meanwhile, an update on Japan situation

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/02/2 ... 4R20120222

Quote:

Japan warns U.S. price of F-35 fighter must not rise
By Rie Ishiguro
TOKYO | Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:10am IST

(Reuters) - Japan has repeatedly warned the United States against price rises in Lockheed Martin Corp's (LMT.N) new F-35 fighter jet, its top government spokesman said on Wednesday, after U.S. and Lockheed officials noted delays in orders will increase its total cost.

The comments from Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura come after Japan's Sankei newspaper cited unidentified U.S. government officials as saying that Japan had threatened that it may even cancel its orders if prices climbed.

...

What this English article doesn't have is the threat of F-35 deal cancellation made by the Japanese official, which is the buzz in Japan right now.

Did you even read the article? Laughing

And yes, I'm sure it's very newsworthy that people in Japan know how to carry out negotiations, posturing and threatening to walk away from a deal to try to secure a better price or some other concessions, making outlandish demands so that they can settle later for the portion of those demands that they'd actually wanted. People have only been bargaining with each other for millenia, after all. Rolling Eyes

hb_pencil wrote:

I find it interesting that you're just not talking about the whole integration piece.

There is nothing special about integrating parts from multiple suppliers. Anybody can do it.

Quote:

It seems that your argument now is that by the magical power of exchange rates Korea will turn out cheap fighters.

The KFX won't be cheap to buy, you are looking at a $80 million jet excluding R&D. However, the KFX pays for itself in terms of maintenance and supporting cost which would be a fraction of imported jets and that has been the whole economic justification for the KFX.

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Its still one of the world's leading exporters

Not anymore. Japan has been in a constant trade deficit ever since the 311 quake/tsunami/meltdown and the export is not recovering. In fact, Japanese government reported the biggest monthly trade deficit since 1970 just last month.

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Furthermore the combination of a high yen actually could have made it more affordable for the Japanese domestic market

How does a strong-yen help Japanese export?

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Yeah, I guess that explains why Airbus is the world's largest aircraft manufacturer

Thanks to the EU subsidy.

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Germany's is the world's second largest export economy.

Most of Germany's exports are Intra-EU trades. German export to the US and Asia isn't that strong.

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Frankly, that's one of the dumbest things you've ever said.

Truth hurts.

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Could also be a host of economic factors like oh, I don't know, sluggish economic growth in Japan for the past 20 years, poor strategic priorities/choices made by companies, a deep recession in its largest trading partner.

But no, I guess its all due to the simple easy explanation of an overvalued currency.

Japan's 20 year depression was triggered by the Plaza Accord.

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First, the current flyaway for a F-35 is $118 million.

How does an F-35 fly away without an engine, which is $15 million extra? Oh, don't forget the cost overrun charges from LM.

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And the cost of one in 4 years time will be $88 million

$88 million my a$$.

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There is no such thing as an export model F-35

Yes there is, not just one but many.

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all F-35As are the same except for customer desired customizations

Not according to Senator Lindsay Graham and the US ambassador to Australia Tom Schieffer who confirmed to the Aussie Parliament in person that the Aussie version's stealth was not as good as the US version.

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Yeah vs a clean config F-16. Add one gas bag

Fuel tanks are dropped before engaging enemy jets.

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Frankly, you're looking more and more like a troll.

No, I just happen to know more than you do.

For the record, the current USAF FY2013 budget states URF as $118.143M, breaking down:

Airframe: $78.512M
Contractor Furnished Electronics: $25.169M
Engine & Engine Accessories: $14.462M

(Note the LM has been delivering the aircraft at costs that exceed budgeted amounts for the past few years, e.g. 7-10% for LRIP4 jets)

Yea, so the engine is included in the $118M, as well as all the electronics. But that's it - no support equipment, manuals, training systems, spares, etc. - the things you need to actually field the aircraft.

Those old has-been ambassadors and politicians don't hold a candle to this information (repeated above and repeated here and forever many times necessary) by those who know and are held accountable for what they say.

F-35 Partners Get Equal Stealth: Le Bourget, France — John A. Tirpak June/24/2011

http://www.airforce-magazine.com/DRArch ... ealth.aspx

“International partners on the F-35 will enjoy a stealth capability on the fighter equal to that of the US versions, according to F-35 program office officials. Maj. Gen. C.D. Moore, deputy director of the F-35 pro-gram office, gave a non-committal answer during a press conference here this week at the Paris Air Show when a reporter asked about the level of stealth available to foreign users.

International reporters have long hinted that the United States would hold back some capability. However in a subsequent statement issued by the F-35 program office, officials said "the quick answer to the statement regarding partners being less stealthy than the US is 'no.' (Partners will have same capability)." The program officials noted that the stealth aspects of some partner versions will vary slightly due to their inclusion of some unique gear, such as drag chutes, but it is "a program objective to not impact [low-observable] characteristics. It is our intent to produce a common solution to ensure interoperability for coalition operations as well as production affordability.”

slowman2 wrote:

Quote:

Frankly, you're looking more and more like a troll.

No, I just happen to know more than you do.

I guess I've got enough experience to know that I'm not an all knowing analyst. However I think I've experienced enough to know that I wouldn't encapsulate major issues like Japanese economic decline to simplistic factors like the "platt amendment," airbus's success to "government subsidies," or say that systems integration is "easy." I see enough freshman 18 year olds who act like that in a day to know they really don't know anything at all.

Want a reasonable discussion based on fact? I'm happy to do that. Actually, I relish that. However I've got better things to do with my time than argue with a troll.

hb_pencil wrote:

Want a reasonable discussion based on fact? I'm happy to do that. Actually, I relish that. However I've got better things to do with my time than argue with a troll.

It is you who is being an unintentional troll by being so clueless about the context you discuss. Two words can describe Japan's current situation; a massive trade deficit and a 230% public debt to GDP ratio that makes Greek debt look healthy at "only" 160%. Now imagine the nuking of world economy when Japan's sovereign debt is at default.

Japan's export machine has been declining for a decade now, caused by the super-strong yen which had a hallowing effect of Japan's industrial base similar to the US manufacturing flight to China. Japan's export was $800 billion in 2011 , while Korea's export was $558 billion even though Korea had less than 40% of Japan's population. In four years Korea is expected to overtake Japan in export value based on the current export growth rate. How did this happen? Simple. Yen is overvalued, while Won is undervalued. This is why China is resisting the Yuan re-valuation pressure from the US, because the Chinese leadership know that would be the Second Plaza Accord, the fastest way to destroy the Chinese economy.

The second problem is Japan's 230% public debt. 50% of Japanese government spending is burrowed money, and there are signs that the Japanese public and financial institution's ability to buy the debt is being exhausted. Accordingly the Japanese government must start cutting its public spending or face a Greek style financial crisis, on top of having to raise half a trillion dollars needed to rebuild Northeast Japan destroyed by Quake/Tsunami/Fukushima. This budgetary reality leaves no room for expensive weapons development project.

The declining fortune of Japan and the resurgent Korea is being reflecting in the outcome of their respective fighter jets. While Japan decided to kill the F-3 and instead upgrade the F-2 and the F-15J, Korea is going ahead with the KFX project and will start deploying them in 2021.

slowman2 wrote:

hb_pencil wrote:

Want a reasonable discussion based on fact? I'm happy to do that. Actually, I relish that. However I've got better things to do with my time than argue with a troll.

It is you who is being an unintentional troll by being so clueless about the context you discuss.

Uhuh.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nb20120227x1.html

Quote:

Monday, Feb. 27, 2012

Elpida goes under after yen, debts take toll
Kyodo, Bloomberg
Struggling semiconductor maker Elpida Memory Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection Monday after giving up on efforts to rebuild itself with government support.

Elpida had been facing an obligation to repay massive debts, while its business was deteriorating under pressure from the strong yen and declining prices for DRAM chips, which are used in products ranging from personal computers and smartphones.

...

Elpida's trouble indicates the difficulty Japanese companies have in competing with Samsung, which had 7.34 trillion won in operating profit from selling chips last year. Chip prices had become as cheap as a "rice ball," Elpida Chief Executive Officer Yukio Sakamoto said last year.

Elpida went bankrupt, while Samsung made a $7 billion profit last year selling the same product that Elpida was losing the farm on. How could this be? Yen was overvalued, while Won was undervalued.

What is striking with Elpida bankruptcy is that the Japanese government refused to bail out Elpida for the second time, even though Elpida's business was considered to be of a national interest. Why? Japanese government know that it cannot save Japan's industries anymore and must transition for a post-industrial Japan focused on a finance industry, conceding the manufacturing dominance to rival Koreans.

It is this Korean manufacturing surge that led the Korean government to the conclusion that they could build a 5th gen stealth fighter with their manufacturing prowess.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... 9b883f.261

Quote:

Japan defence chief 'may cancel' F-35 deal
(AFP) – 4 hours ago
TOKYO — Japan's defence chief said Wednesday the country may cancel its $4.7 billion order for the US-built F-35 stealth jet if Washington fails to stick to the proposed price and deadlines.

Defence Minister Naoki Tanaka said a formal contract for the initial four units which Japan wants by March 2017, out of a total of 42 jets, was expected to be signed before this summer.

But, he told parliament: "If the situation comes to the point where (the US) cannot work out the proposal by that time, we will have concerns for Japan's defence capability.

"We would have to look at either cancelling the contract or opting for another model."

slowman2 wrote:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iP81MNZ5y3tqnXkcN1CSETo6Wj7g?docId=CNG.aac840d8bc3f86c424fedd62789b883f.261

Quote:

Japan defence chief 'may cancel' F-35 deal
(AFP) – 4 hours ago
TOKYO — Japan's defence chief said Wednesday the country may cancel its $4.7 billion order for the US-built F-35 stealth jet if Washington fails to stick to the proposed price and deadlines.

Defence Minister Naoki Tanaka said a formal contract for the initial four units which Japan wants by March 2017, out of a total of 42 jets, was expected to be signed before this summer.

But, he told parliament: "If the situation comes to the point where (the US) cannot work out the proposal by that time, we will have concerns for Japan's defence capability.

"We would have to look at either cancelling the contract or opting for another model."

Opting for another model ? who is the lucky guy ?

Forum: Program and politics

F-35s for Japan