Forum: Program and politics

"WASHINGTON - Washington's plan to further slow production of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is prompting Canada to convene a meeting with seven other international partners as the countries rethink their own orders for the stealthy new fighter jet."

"Canada has tentatively scheduled a meeting of the partners at its embassy in Washington before the Australian meeting to get an update on the program and better coordinate their approach."

``The situation is increasingly becoming a fiasco. People are pulling out, pulling back . . . reassessing what they're going to do," NDP MP Matthew Kellway told Reuters on Friday.

He said the Pentagon had given Canada every reason to step back, by stepping back itself."

The article goes into each partner's buying situation.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/Canada+convenes+i ... z1mJIaWGu2

F-16.net Sponsor

Canada Appears to Waver on F-35 Purchase
Feb. 14, 2012 - 07:25PM |
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper opened the door Feb. 14 for a possible cut in the number of F-35 fighter jets Canada will buy, after reports that the United States was scaling back its purchase plans.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2012 ... y=nav|head

LMAO...we buy them, we're spending too much, but if we cut the number purchased to ensure we don't pay more we're wavering??

I'm glad I wasn't drinking a beer when I read that...lol

Pretty sure the meeting will go like this.

"Ok everybody, the F-35 is overbudget and behind schedule, but we all want 5th generation fighters to start replacing our current fleets within the next 10 years." What are our options?"

...

...

"Anybody? Anything to say? Ok, let's all go home."

Is a figure known, scenario how many F35’s could be ordered by Canada, in case a higher price with a same budget?

In 2002 was written in a Dutch letter to Parliament, before joining the JSF project, possible F35’s.
Estimated with a fl.10 billion = €4.537 billion budget (tentative budget at that time): 1998
- Rate: fl.1 = €2.20371 (2002)

A. 120 F35’s (not realistic scenario)
B. 85 F35’s (estimated possible scenario)
C. 60 F35’s (worst case scenario)

85 F35’s, a middle of the road estimation, but would the price go up, without raising the budget,
60 F35’s (more expensive than calculated, option C).
o The used mid rate at that time: $1 = €1.15
o Used mid rate (2011): $1 = €0.83
o Rate febr. 2012: $1 = €0,76

In this letter (2002): The needed budget, as well as how many F35’s, would be a responsibility for the government ordering the F35.

Investment SSD phase: Netherlands (2002):
- US $800 billion > at rate at that time: €857.5 billion
- In, at rate febr, 14, 2012: US €1.152 billion ($1 = €0.76)

Production Phase: Some €355 million

IOT&E Phase: €270 million

Total investments:
Plus some other costs: +€1783 billion = US $2.23 billion (rate: febr. 14, 2012)

* Extra investment updating F16, flying three longer (2027): €300 million
As seen as an investment (sunk costs) as well, this could be counted as: €1783 + €300 million = €2,083 billion (US $2.74 billion, rate febr . 2012)

€4.5 billion:
The €4.5 billion, mentioned last year, as put a side for ordering the F35, by the Dutch government, is the original budget (2002).
As well as, nationally and internationally has been mentioned, the budget has been lowered, is actually not really the case. This government simply has no authority to raise the budget for ordering the F35.

In 2006 the tentative budget changed in, what budget would be needed for ordering 85 F35’s?

Last year estimated was, €7.6 billion = $9.15 billion would be needed for 85 F35’s (mid rate: $1 = €0.83). At rate 0.76, febr 2012: €6.95 billion = $9.15 bilion.

Either what the budget will be (more than the original budget €4.5 billion) and how many F35’s, is and would be the responsibility for the next government (probably 2015?)

Seems rougly there is some comparison with Canada and Norway:
o Netherlands: some $6 billion - $9 billion
o Canada: $8.5 or $9 billion
o Norway: $10 billion (?)

Personal point of view, houses raised in price during these years: 3 or 4x. Wages more than doubled and etc.
Compared, does the F35 really became that expensive as it seems?
As well compared with the raise of the prices of a Rafale and a Typhoon.

The Canadian Prime Minster has ignored the national parliamentary press corps and treats them like ignorant fools and turdheads.

They don't like being dissed and have a true hate on for Harper, his government and anything they do. They smell blood in the water and have been piling on the vindictive anti F-35 stories over the last few days.

They have no idea how foolish they look with all the fear mongering, presenting speculations as facts and proving once again, that journalists are math challenged.

True members of the Aviation Ignoranti club.

luke_sandoz wrote:

The Canadian Prime Minster has ignored the national parliamentary press corps and treats them like ignorant fools and turdheads.

They don't like being dissed and have a true hate on for Harper, his government and anything they do. They smell blood in the water and have been piling on the vindictive anti F-35 stories over the last few days.

They have no idea how foolish they look with all the fear mongering, presenting speculations as facts and proving once again, that journalists are math challenged.

True members of the Aviation Ignoranti club.

Actually I think its partly a problem of the government's own making. The diminution of the public affairs apparatus doesn't help them at all. the messaging coming out of the government is simplistic and doesn't really help to convince other parties.

Furthermore there is an dearth of public expertise in procurement. The PBO's report is still being cited when its basically been discredited by National Defence.

I think everyone is jumping the gun here. Details are vargue regarding the F-35 because it is only about 20% through flight test. Once it hits the 75-80% flight test competition mark then you it will be possible to nail down cost and quanity.

Hey Hey Hey!!! People!!! Read the news. I'd rather have a ton of Super Hornets + Reaper or even Predator drones than only a few F-35's. And from the initial budget estimate available for F-35's, the most realistic number is 40 units. OUCH!!!

flighthawk128 wrote:

Hey Hey Hey!!! People!!! Read the news. I'd rather have a ton of Super Hornets + Reaper or even Predator drones than only a few F-35's. And from the initial budget estimate available for F-35's, the most realistic number is 40 units. OUCH!!!

Please post information to support this.

This should be interesting.

hb_pencil wrote:

flighthawk128 wrote:

Hey Hey Hey!!! People!!! Read the news. I'd rather have a ton of Super Hornets + Reaper or even Predator drones than only a few F-35's. And from the initial budget estimate available for F-35's, the most realistic number is 40 units. OUCH!!!

Please post information to support this.

This should be interesting.

He has something of a point though. With prices likely to go up, if Canada is unwilling to part with the extra cash necessary to keep their order at 65 (a piddling number anyways), then I see little point in them buying the F-35 at all.

1st503rdsgt wrote:

hb_pencil wrote:

flighthawk128 wrote:

Hey Hey Hey!!! People!!! Read the news. I'd rather have a ton of Super Hornets + Reaper or even Predator drones than only a few F-35's. And from the initial budget estimate available for F-35's, the most realistic number is 40 units. OUCH!!!

Please post information to support this.

This should be interesting.

He has something of a point though. With prices likely to go up, if Canada is unwilling to part with the extra cash necessary to keep their order at 65 (a piddling number anyways), then I see little point in them buying the F-35 at all.

What's to say that the government isn't willing to pony up more money, which its done for alot of other aircraft. Since it doesn't seem like you're actually familiar with the Canada at all. Look at the Cyclone program; 230 million overbudget, no helicopters delivered and the government is still committed.

Furthermore I'm fairly confident the government will buy at least a dozen more aircraft in future years. That's also the advantage of being a partner in the program rather than an FMS customer.

Canada already had a buffer for extra costs built into its plans. Besides, LM & the JPO could always guarantee FRP prices to late LRIP Partner buys in order to keep them in the LRIP cycle.

SpudmanWP wrote:

Canada already had a buffer for extra costs built into its plans. Besides, LM & the JPO could always guarantee FRP prices to late LRIP Partner buys in order to keep them in the LRIP cycle.

SpudmanWP. Do yo can explain this a bit. have got no understanding of this how this works?
Quote: LM & the JPO could always guarantee FRP prices to late LRIP Partner buys in order to keep them in the LRIP cycle

As you will now, the Dutch postponed ordering the F35. In a letter of the min of Defense: when the F35 will be ordered, delivery in 2020, 10 F35`s, last LRIP series.

Forum: Program and politics

Canada convenes international meeting over troubled F-35