Forum: Modern Military Aircraft

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/10-bn ... ef/760883/

126 fighters is a huge deal.. If SH wins this one it will pave the way for more international orders but it will certainly kill the future of the two Eurocanards.
My prediction is Rafale and Typhoon have both 40% chances and the SH 20%.
The Super Viper has no chance !

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My prediction is Rafale and Typhoon have both 40% chances and the SH 20%.
The Super Viper has no chance !

What do you base those percentages on?

The program is a fiasco and they have no idea what they want or why they want it. As written, with the desire for counter ISR, the Typhoon is the best choice. However, why buy Typhoon when they already have Su-30, that with long range weapons would also be solid in that role? They want access to tech but also some A2A and also some A2G etc. In the end it may be a political choice. I'd like to see an offer of F-35 to strengthen the US-India relationship.

LM has already hinted at the F-35, but the Indians made it clear that they aren't interested as they are already involved in the FGFA. The IN may be interested however and has issued a RFI.

If they're not interested in the F-35, what is the point of buying another different aircraft type? Why don't they just buy 125 more Su-30MKIs or whatever you call them. Will a Typhoon or Rafale be that much better?

The IAF is seeking a replacement for its ageing fleet of combat aircraft. They need an aircraft available from ~2014 and want comprehensive ToT and offsets to boost their own aerospace industry. The F-35 is no option as it may not be available on time and the US would most likely not offer the desired level of ToT for the F-35. There are already doubts that they offer sufficient ToT for the F-16 and F/A-18, but that's something only the people involved could say. The Su-30MKI is to large and heavy to be the "sole" fighter in the IAFs industry they subsequently seek a medium combat aircraft which fits in between the Tejas LCA and the Su-30MKI on the heavy side. They also look to diversify their weapons supplies to avoid becoming dependent on a single supplier relationship and are looking for further strengthening their political ties. The latter is officially denied, but it is clear that India as a growing power and economy needs strong partners. The relationship to the Russians is already quite strong and there is little they could gain. That's why the MiG-35 has the lowest chances, it simply doesn't add much of value wrt political benefits, ToT and capability over what the Indians already have.

discofishing wrote:

Quote:

My prediction is Rafale and Typhoon have both 40% chances and the SH 20%.
The Super Viper has no chance !

What do you base those percentages on?

Both Eurocanards come with full TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY and no worries of sanctions or political blackmail in the future .The US has a history of imposing sanctions on India. Boeing and Raytheon need congressional approval, the Europeans don't. They will offer India the better overall package.
The French in particular are determined to do whatever is neccessary to win this.
If they lose in India and in Brazil ,the project RAFALE is dead,finished once and for all.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sarkozy-p ... 0&.v=1

I think it's time the French truly demonstrate their Rafale. I don't doubt that it is state of the art and a very capable aircraft with room for growth. I have doubts about it's "current" multirole capabilities, though. Lets see France conduct more CAS missions in support of NATO troops in Afghanistan. Furthermore, lets see France use their Rafales to strike air defense targets in Libya and set up a no-fly zone. If France can pull that off, then they will have more clout on the fighter aircraft market.

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If they lose in India and in Brazil ,the project RAFALE is dead,finished once and for all.

You could be right. I don't think that's a selling point though. Nations will buy the Rafale out of sympathy. They'll buy it because it's the best deal. A technology transfer or license to build an aircraft locally doesn't mean it will be the best deal. Just look at what Japan is going through with their locally produced (Fuji Heavy Industries) AH-64D Apache attack helicopters.

And what exactly do you doubt about the Rafale's multirole capabilities? Btw are you aware that the Rafales are once again in Afghanistan right (they had annual deployments since 2007)?

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And what exactly do you doubt about the Rafale's multirole capabilities? Btw are you aware that the Rafales are once again in Afghanistan right (they had annual deployments since 2007)?

Yes, I know they're in A-stan, and from what I've read they have to have Mirage 2000s and Super Etendards mark targets for them. That's why I mentioned their "current" capabilities as I know they are still working on upgrades and what not. Full multirole capability is achieved with the F3 standard, right? I'm still looking for any articles and accounts of the Rafale performing autonomous precision guided strikes. If you can't do those, that's not very multirole is it? I've read the French are working on integrating the Thales Damocles targeting pod into the Rafale. You have any links I can take a look at that would help me cast my doubts aside?

You could be right. I don't think that's a selling point though. Nations will buy the Rafale out of sympathy. They'll buy it because it's the best deal. A technology transfer or license to build an aircraft locally doesn't mean it will be the best deal. Just look at what Japan is going through with their locally produced (Fuji Heavy Industries) AH-64D Apache attack helicopters.[/quote]

The Rafale with its present PESA RADAR and MICA misiles is going nowhwere.
No nation would buy it out of sympathy, and nobody did since 1998 because its too expensive vis-a-vis its capabilities, the main improvement to the Rafale's air combat capability is the AESA and Meteor missile, but here comes the rub ! The new AESA which will be operational next year has obviously failed to impress anyone. With 850 T/R modules it seems pretty average and compared to SH's APG-79 its probably below average.
A more capable AESA would require more powerful engines to feed it and METEOR comes in 2018 ! The RAFALE has a bumpy upgrade path.
BTW ,as of 2011 the Rafale is self sufficient and doesn't need a M2000 to designate targets anymore so I read somewhere.

discofishing wrote:

Yes, I know they're in A-stan, and from what I've read they have to have Mirage 2000s and Super Etendards mark targets for them. That's why I mentioned their "current" capabilities as I know they are still working on upgrades and what not. Full multirole capability is achieved with the F3 standard, right? I'm still looking for any articles and accounts of the Rafale performing autonomous precision guided strikes. If you can't do those, that's not very multirole is it? I've read the French are working on integrating the Thales Damocles targeting pod into the Rafale. You have any links I can take a look at that would help me cast my doubts aside?

Rafales also delivered AASMs without escorting aircraft, but receiving target coordinates from troops on the ground which is a quite common practise these days. Effective coordination between troops on the ground and aerial assets is critical for CAS missions and many US types do it exactly the same way. According the current A&C issue Rafales dropped GBU-12 in January in Afghanistan designating the targets with Damocles so that lack of self designation capability is over now. The aircraft can perform much more roles either such as anti-shipping, nuclear strike, stand-off precision strike, tactical/strategic reconnaissance, precision strikes against pre-planned ground targets and targets of opportunity, CAS&BAI and SEAD/DEAD. It admittedly took the aircraft a while to achieve these capabilities, but they are available right now with the employment of the Damocles and AREOS being the most recent achievement.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... ogram.html

SH and Superviper seem to have lost already ....

Last edited by keithmoon on Mar 17, 2011 - 04:18 PM; edited 8 times in total

Duplex, I am not sure that Antony refusing to meet with Gates is an indication that the SH will not be selected. Perhaps, the refusal to meet Gates, before a selection is made, is a sign to his people that the decision (to buy F-18s) will be made on merit.

This is an interesting race because the aircraft are all excellent.

I agree that it is unlikely Mig-35 will be chosen. India already has issues sourcing engines and parts from Russia and I doubt want 126/200 MMRCAs and 300+ MKI spares/weapons to be sourced from one country in case of a [Link pending approval] as well tap as many Military Industrial Complexes as possible :p . They also gain nothing politically or technologically (as Scorpion said)

I don't think the F-16 stands much of a chance either as it has limited upgrade potential and India plans to have these planes in service for some time.

The Gripen is a wonderfully cost effective machine, but the NG-variant isn't quite real. Selex will have no AESA radar (problem for Typhoon too) by 2013. Also, I think the Indians believe they will achieve similar performance levels with Tejas Mk II.

That leaves the F/A18F (I think the Indians dig two-seaters), Eurofighter, and Rafale.

India has a long history of buying French weapons (and apparently loves their Mirage 2000s enough to spend $2-3x10^9 upgrading them). The M88 core is now used in India's 'indigenous' Kaveri program (which will power the 5th gen AMCA), so India will be able to replace the engines themselves in the future. As Duplex stated, the RBE2 AESA was just recently validated. Duplex, where did you read the RBE2 AESA only has 850 T/R modules? Any idea on the efficacy of a sole module vs. competitors? Or control system? I can't find much info on this radar. Also, the Indian Navy is looking for planes for its second and third (unbuilt) [Link pending approval] I believe the Rafale will be compatible with. I'm sure the Indians would prefer to operate fewer types of AC. Those are all good things. There are some bad things, [Link pending approval] is underpowered (compared to EJ200 and F414), French planes and upgrades are costly, and the future of aircraft upgrades are uncertain (as France is the sole user of the aircraft).

The Eurofighter is also an impressive plane, but has critical flaws: It doesn't currently have an AESA radar, for one. Air-to-Ground capabilities are yet to be fully realized and it is prohibitively expensive. Even at $1x10^8 a pop, just the planes would cost $[Link pending approval] billion! What about spare engines, weapons, targeting systems and pods, etc? The Eurofighter does have quite a few operators, but even they seem to be scaling back spending on the project and procurement numbers. Saudi Arabia's Typhoons came out of Britain's procurement schedule and India's purchase would offset Germany's. What does this mean for future upgrades? Also, does India want to fund development on a plane Saudi Arabia uses? They are one of Pakistan's biggest allies and in previous conflicts with India, have given the PAF planes (I believe I read somewhere)!

This leaves the F-18F. It is produced in the largest numbers of any of the planes (legitimately) in the running, securing future upgradability. It has a tested AESA radar (The United States' semiconductor design/fabrication prowess is the best in the world). It's cheaper than its [Link pending approval] planes can be bought for likely cheaper than 126 Typhoons or Rafales. Assuming generous ToT, no end-use monitoring, or CISMOA/LSA, I think the Super Hornet is the best fit for the Indians.

For these reasons, I believe the F-18 and Rafale are the two best choices for the IAF. Hopefully, it will be the Super Hornet, though, as I am for increased US/India defense cooperation.

France has bagged lots of contracts with India lately (Scorpenes, Reactors, Mirage upgrades, Kaveri JV). The United States too (C130s, C17s, P8s). Politcally, I believe India has the most to gain (read: buy) by acquiring Eurofighters. After all, a revised UN Security Council will likely see France and GB lose their permanent seat for a EU perm. seat.

Either way, F-18, Typhoon, and Rafale are all wonderful aircrafts compared to F-16_52 and J10/J11.

keithmoon wrote:

Saudi Arabia's Typhoons came out of Britain's procurement schedule

Good analysis of the situation Keith. However, just to correct, 24 of the 72 Saudi has ordered are Tranche 2 diverts from the UK order to speed up delivery to the Saudi's. The Saudi's ordered 72 aircraft and as a result of the initial divert, 24 of them (Tranche 3) will be delivered to the UK to replace the 24 diverted and the others are pure export order to Saudi.

Under the partner nation contracts, the UK were not allowed to offset their order by selling already purchased aircraft to the Saudi's.

Andy

Forum: Modern Military Aircraft

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