The next Korean War

Discuss air warfare, doctrine, air forces, historic campaigns, etc.
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OleRusty

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Unread post23 Jan 2008, 05:41

Does anybody have any comments on what would happen if Kim sent his flock south?
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Mushmouth

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Unread post27 Jan 2008, 03:35

We would stomp his a$$ right in his tracks. That's why we there, right? He see that we are ready and preparing all the time just in case he does get any balls. I know I slept well know he was under the bullseye (not gonna say how, but you get the picture), courtesy of our army friends.
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Ozzy_Blizzard

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Unread post30 Jan 2008, 05:46

OleRusty wrote:Does anybody have any comments on what would happen if Kim sent his flock south?


Huge ROK casualties, both civilian and military, probably in the millions. 3-4 weeks of hard core warfare until NK collapsed IMO, but that month would be bloody. Their C3ISR capability would be cut to pieces by US air power, but that much fire power is going to kill allot of people even without C3, and that terrain means they cant be easily out maneuvered. It wont be a repeat of Desert Storm, but they wouldn't last long. As the state imploded the Chinese would move in from the north, shooting this time if they had to, to secure NK's nukes (if they weren't used). The north korean state would cease to exist and there would be a humanitarian disaster in the aftermath. Not cool at all... :(
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ATC

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Unread post30 Jan 2008, 10:26

I knew someone who was there with the Marine Corps for the last Korean war. He had some stories to tell that lead me to believe that it would be a horrible, long, bloody mess if we had to do it again. I hope it never hapens.
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Spartan-120

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Unread post05 Feb 2008, 06:16

Don't forget, we've got a lot of new toys to play with this time around. The Air war I think would be fairly short, especially once the F-22s from Elmendorf arrived on scene. Then we'd get A-10s and B-1Bs flying CAS missions to great effect in support of US, ROK, and Allied troops.
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skyhigh

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Unread post01 Apr 2009, 09:56

To the detriment of Kim Jong-il's KPA (Korean People's Army).
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Unread post01 Apr 2009, 22:58

Well, giggety, giggety, another thread that I know something about. All right.

Going off the data from GlobalSecurity that I'm using for my book:
North Korean AF has:
100+ EACH:
J-5/MiG-17 Fresco
J-6/MiG-19 Farmer
J-7/MiG-21 Fishbed

They also have 45 Floggers and +/-20 Fulcrums (they're tasked with Pyongyang Air Defense)
GlobalSecurity also estimates they have 40 SA-2 (if that's total systems or just missiles, I don't know)

That being said, this is my viewpoint:

I call North Korea's Army a "parade army" because that's what they're good at--and little else. I separate militaries into two categories: Parade Armies and Working Armies, the latter is South Korea and the US. Even with that said, sending enough of a Parade Army into battle against a Working Army, the Parades could win just by having more people left when the Working Army runs outta bullets.

Even with deploying all the Raptors from Elmendorf and Langley, culling that much force is going to take some time, especially if they manage to launch a preemptive strike, and knock out the Kun or Osan. The USN can help--but if Kim's gonna be bad, he's probably going to wait until a point where the US doesn't have a carrier around, and the USAF is providing the backup from Korea or Japan. We CAN win the air war, it's the ground war that's going to be a nightmare, and if we end up getting overrun, remember the two Soviet Generals in Paris....

If Kim Jong-il's going to try and make a grab for S. Korea, he'd send I, II, V, and VI KPA Corps flooding into the ROK, and even with the combined airpower from Kunsan and Osan--if that is, Osan's able to last for more than a day--the Army and Marines are going to have a heck of a time trying to get troops in, and stop the invasion before it reaches Seoul. He's unlikely to use nuclear weapons, because if he's going to invade, it's going to be for economic reasons, and unless he's building the Mall of Korea in Seoul, he's not going to be in much need for the big parking lot that a nuke would make.

At sea, the USN can take on the ancient technology of the KPN and not break a sweat, it's getting the MPSRONs to Pusan that's the problem--something like I'm thinking would probably require a full-on CRAF call-up and putting everything the MSC has to sea.

One other consideration is China, if Kim Jong is insane enough to launch an invasion, I think the PRC's going to distance themselves so fast, it'll make a Blackbird look like a garden slug. For a while, I've thought that the PRC might even launch their own attack against North Korea like what they did to Vietnam after the US pullout.

As far as timing would go, I'd say if he's going to go off his nut, he's going to do it in the next five years, while we only have ONE stealth fighter in the inventory, going up against Raptors and JSFs, I think he'd realize that that's a little out of his league.

The aftermath? I'd say it could go one of two ways, South Korea shows compassion and reunites the country, or they look at what happened to Germany when they reunited, and the mess that was left there and say. "No freaking way are we touching that mess." Ultimately, the ROK would help out in the second scenario, but something tells me that they would want to see North Korea make an effort at cleaning it up first themselves.



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Meathook

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Unread post01 Apr 2009, 23:25

It would be sad for all involved, no real turkey shoot, I have no doubt the "South with US backing would prevail" but at what cost to both military and civilians....damn shame, that whole situation sucks, shame the North just wont let go of the old school "Commie" mindset - jerks, many of them - dont forget, these guys fought hard in the Korea conflict (as it was called).

Their tough and sneaky, I am sure, they would do what ever they felt they needed to do to win or cause problems for us. Chemicals, Nukes (if available)...I think we should not think of them as soft at all. If we must go, it needs to be very hard and very fast, like in Gulf War 1, maybe even harder and faster to get it done as quick as possible (if it comes to that).
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skyhigh

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Unread post02 Apr 2009, 08:05

Shorten the conflict to as short as 30 days or less?
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Unread post02 Apr 2009, 15:20

Not if the four corps on the border cross the DMZ--the CFC's going to be overwhelmed quick, and that's going to pose a serious problem for the US reinforcements.

I'm not so sure it's going to be a month-long war, sky, it took from August to right before the shooting started in the PGW to get every piece in place. We're certainly going to need as much if not more troops to counter the KPA. Just to get the MPSRON from Guam it's going to take over a week. And if there's fierce fighting after the KPA crosses into South Korea (and why wouldn't there be?) losses are going to be heavy on both sides--the Army might be able to give better than they take, but there's only about 30-40K troops in the AO--that means we can't afford to lose anyone when the bullets start flying.

As a sidenote, my book features a pullback all the way to Pusan--where they fight a holding action because the ROKA refuses to be pushed off the peninsula, and the Abrams can't swim anyway. The USAF--from Japanese bases--and the ROKAF--from Jeju Island and Pusan AP--are able to punish the forces trying to collapse Pusan and they try and cut off the army's logistics tail (with armies, cutting off the head may not always work (War of 1812), but chopping the tail to bits will starve the body to death).

When a war kicks off, the Air Mobility Command has to move a lot of stuff: beans, bullets, bodies, bandages, armor, choppers, and (sometimes) even ordinance for the AF pilots to drop.

It would be sad for all involved, no real turkey shoot, I have no doubt the "South with US backing would prevail" but at what cost to both military and civilians....damn shame


I agree, it would be a shame, and I'm sure by the end of the first week, the newsies are going to be screaming to get rid of the entire military for all the casualties that would be inflicted....but then it could serve as a reminder that the US Armed Forces aren't omnipotent and invincible. Chuck Horner said it best, he loves the thrill of combat, but hates war. I hate war too, but sometimes it's the only option that will get results.


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Meathook

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Unread post02 Apr 2009, 23:14

Sad but true, when communicate efforts fail, diplomats fail, the military is often the next option (historically speaking) we all know the "UN" is useless, so why should we even try other then to get those deligates to side with us.

I am afraid, it could very well lead to war, having been three times myself in the past...lets just say I hope we dont have to go there, too many will be lost because of a few fools in the North - shame they have not grown out of that pure hate and not enjoyed life without acting as puppet masters with their citizens.
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Unread post03 Apr 2009, 00:05

I think Kim knows the US policy on WMD--a germ is a gas shell is a nuke--since we don't have gas or germs, we're gonna go nuclear if he gasses or infects anybody. I also think the DPRK doesn't have much in the way of CBRN defense, so Kim may not want to risk his fat little neck to wipe out the South.

The UN is--in my eyes--a useless waste of money, time, and energy. They manage to screw up more than they get right. If push comes to shove on the Peninsula, the UN isn't going to do a darn thing--even with a South Korean as Secretary-General. If they don't stand with us, I say the US should leave the UN, and the POTUS should hang an eviction notice on the door of the UNHQ--have France keep the rogues in line, and see how far it gets them then. I know that will never happen, though, because if the US leaves, the system will dissolve from lack of support.
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Unread post03 Apr 2009, 00:12

I just hope that NOTHING happens in Korea- and anywhere else for that matter.

Our military is busy enough in other areas that hopefully will come to an end somewhere in the near future.
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Unread post03 Apr 2009, 02:14

I'm with Meathook and Stoli on this one. I don't think that war with the NoKos will be anywhere as easy as some would like to think. They have an army, strong in manpower, and an invasion will be far from a walkover.

As Stoli said, right now we're busy fighting two other wars. I don't want to see us get involved in a third or fourth with N.Korea or Iran if we don't have to.
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Unread post03 Apr 2009, 04:34

Salute!

Reminds me of when the Chinese came across the border after a few months of success by the U.N. forces:

“How many Chinese are attacking you?” asked Marine General Chesty Puller.
Many, many Chinese!” replied the excited Korean officer.
Puller asked for another count and got the same answer, “Many, many Chinese!”
“Goddamnit!” swore Puller, “Put my Marine liaison officer on the radio.”
In a minute, an American voice came over the air. “Yes sir?”
“Lieutenant”, growled Chesty, “exactly how many Chinese you got up there?”
“General, we got a whole shitload of Chinese up here!”
“Thank God” exclaimed Puller, “at least there’s someone up there who knows how to
count.”

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