The Turkey problem

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
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spazsinbad

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Unread post12 Aug 2018, 09:56

OOPS NGJ video in rong thred.... :doh: GO HERE FOR NGJ Video from Raytheon:

viewtopic.php?f=58&t=52254&p=399534&hilit=thread#p399534
Last edited by spazsinbad on 12 Aug 2018, 11:43, edited 2 times in total.
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element1loop

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Unread post12 Aug 2018, 11:02

"Would you like fries with that, sir?"

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beepa

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 06:03

Well looks like Trump has done the Turkey dump. Not going to be very many happy Turks around. Who knows what comes next. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/13/tr ... -rift-f35/
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Corsair1963

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 07:34

My guess is production will continue and Turkish F-35's will go straight to storage. If, this issue is resolved Turkey can still get her F-35's. If, not the US can keep the F-35's or put them up for sale (export)....



Also, this keep production of the F-35 going on both sides of the Atlantic. It's also worth noting much of what Turkey produces for the F-35 is already made by other suppliers. Including the center fuselage/intakes. Which, is produced by both Northrup Grumman (US) and TAI (Turkey).....I doubt Trump would cry over giving more work to US Suppliers.
Last edited by Corsair1963 on 14 Aug 2018, 07:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 07:42

Honestly, Turkey is in a very poor position and both sides know it. Hell, just about every major Weapons Program in Turkey has a large portion of Western Components. So, a break between Turkey and the West. (i.e. Europe & US) Would be nothing short of "CRUSHING" to the Turkish Defense Sector and Military!


If, Erdoğan is truly afraid of another coup attempt. This is not the way to avoiding one! :shock:
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talkitron

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 15:52

I would like to see a detailed analysis of the role of Turkish firms as subcontractors in the F-35 program. I hope some journalists will be working on this article. While we are at it, we might cut Canada’s share of the program for not buying any planes yet.

It is possible Erdogan and and Trump will make up, but it is difficult as there is no sign Gulen will be extradited and otherwise there is not much face-saving stuff the US can offer Turkey if Trump demands both the pastor and the cancellation of the S-400 deal with Russia (to please Congress more than himself). Erdogan is just as prideful as Trump.
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steve2267

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 15:58

talkitron wrote:I would like to see a detailed analysis of the role of Turkish firms as subcontractors in the F-35 program. I hope some journalists will be working on this article. While we are at it, we might cut Canada’s share of the program for not buying any planes yet.


While I share your sentiments with regards to Canada, the Canucks have been paying the funds required to remain a partner nation. I seem to recall a news story about the Canadians paying hundreds of millions of dollars as a partner nation. Kind of odd that they pay to remain a partner, yet haven't ordered any yet, and the press seems to NOT raise a ruckus over these payments.
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, add dollop of F-117 & gob of F-22, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well, then bake. Whaddya get? An F-35.
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bojack_horseman

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 16:12

Ridiculous decision IMO.

Throwing a spanner into the very delicately distributed global supply chain.

So, when the Tukish components halt.... assembly halts?
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marsavian

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 16:32

The Turks will back down having had a small taste of how cold the wind can blow outside of a friendly Western ecosystem. The reality that has to dawn on Erdogan is that everyone in that ecosystem has to play nice with the big dog, USA, in that system or face the consequences. It's nothing personal as many countries are finding with the economic nationalist Trump at the helm. Give it a few months and the Pastor will be freed by their 'independent' judiciary and S-400 will be cancelled for Patriots and F-35 will then be released because ultimately F-35 is too important for the aggressive foreign policy Erdogan is very fond of. Otherwise it's best we find out now before F-35 is released to them if the Turks want to have a maverick foreign policy which has no care for traditional alliances. Time to choose Sultan baby !
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sferrin

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 17:48

bojack_horseman wrote:Ridiculous decision IMO.

Throwing a spanner into the very delicately distributed global supply chain.

So, when the Tukish components halt.... assembly halts?


Other companies will be more than happy to pick up that work.
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bojack_horseman

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 18:43

sferrin wrote:Other companies will be more than happy to pick up that work.


When?

Today?
Tomorrow?

These things don't happen quickly..

This could well grind production to a halt while alternate suppliers are tendered, contracts awarded, components made & tested etc etc.

Right when production was gaining major traction.

All over some stupid political stunt
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talkitron

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 19:05

steve2267 wrote:While I share your sentiments with regards to Canada, the Canucks have been paying the funds required to remain a partner nation. I seem to recall a news story about the Canadians paying hundreds of millions of dollars as a partner nation. Kind of odd that they pay to remain a partner, yet haven't ordered any yet, and the press seems to NOT raise a ruckus over these payments.


That might seem like a lot of money in Canada, but it is not in the US. :D
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durahawk

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 19:52

bojack_horseman wrote: All over some stupid political stunt


Potential exploitation of some of our most advanced military technology is not a political stunt. Turkey operating the S-400 and F-35, no doubt with Russian advisors, will not produce positive outcomes for either the US or other program partners.

Lockheed has seen this coming for months. I'd be willing to bet they have contingency plans for the loss of the Turkish subcontractors by now.

Will this cause a disruption? Absolutely... but I would not cripple the program, there is far too much money yet to be made.
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marsavian

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Unread post14 Aug 2018, 22:24

bojack_horseman wrote:
sferrin wrote:Other companies will be more than happy to pick up that work.


When?

Today?
Tomorrow?

These things don't happen quickly..

This could well grind production to a halt while alternate suppliers are tendered, contracts awarded, components made & tested etc etc.

Right when production was gaining major traction.

All over some stupid political stunt


It's not a stunt, Turkey has to make a strategic choice now and decide its future allegiances. Is it with the West as it has been for 66 years when it was previously bullied by Russia and joined NATO as a result or is it as a fully independent Middle East Muslim state with very close ties to Russia with generally antagonistic feelings to the West and Israel. It has about a year to decide. Choose wisely.

The delay was quantified earlier in the thread by Mattis ...

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... it-450558/

“Removing Turkey could trigger a supply chain disruption for the US military and our partners, as well as increase other program costs,” Mattis says in his letter to the House Armed Services Committee Chairman on 7 July. “If the Turkish supply chain was disrupted today, it would result in an aircraft production break delaying delivery of 50-75 F-35s, and would take approximately 18-24 months to re-source parts and recover.”

In co-ordination with Northrop Grumman, the main fuselage manufacturer for the F-35, Turkish Aerospace Industries manufactures and assembles centre fuselages, produces composite skins and weapon bay doors, and fibre placement composite air inlet ducts. In total, ten different Turkish firms make parts for every F-35 manufactured.

Turkey plans to purchase 100 F-35As, with its first batch of 14 already contracted. A total of 30 are scheduled for delivery by the end of 2022.


I don't think it will go that far but if Turkey wants to become Iran Mk 2 best it does it now and we know where we stand before handing over our best military technology.
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element1loop

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Unread post15 Aug 2018, 06:35

The bottom line is the Lira has been on a slow downwards trend (i.e. losing buying power, increasing the price of all imports, fanning domestic inflation) since Erdogan gained national power from mid last decade. All that has occurred is that as Erdogan has become more and more antagonistic, and garnered more and more state power, the Lira's decline has accellerated.

This is a long-term ('secular' ... hmm) trend, and as long as Turkey remains aligned with the "Erdogan & Sons™" company trajectory, the Lira and domestic economy, and crash 'n burn domestic stock market, is not coming back up again by much.

In other words, a sustained and now rapid collapse of the Lira means Erdogan will increasingly struggle to afford ANY imported goods, especially heavy SAMS or new foreign aircraft, from ANY source.

If he gets any of these they will have to be a 'gift', not a purchase, nor a foreign loan--Turkey can't realistically do either, until the Lira reverts to a longer-term average with respect to the USD.

So it is no longer just a matter of resolving a rift between Turkey, NATO and Washington. They could resolve that and still Turkey's Turkey has priced himself out of obtaining significant F-35s, while the compounding affect on the Lira's decline lingers (and many other econmic factors are consequently played out).

Which trashes the national reserves, shrinks state revenue, strongly amps inflation, continues the protracted economic downturn, deepens the already deep stock market collapse, unhinges banks, shrinks asset prices, disrupts industry and production, freezes credit, devastates business and employment, undermines national security--and these are just the foreseeables and actuals.

In other words, the rift with Washington (and the silly claims of "economic warfare") are just another symptom--as this is not the cause, and nor is its resolution a cure-all for what is dragging Turkey and its currency down.

It's not really about S400s, F-35s, Gulen (an excuse) or a Pastor. Those are just pointy-out topical bits snagging and characterising the underlaying secular decline (pun intended) in Turkish leadership quality and its gyrating relationships. Which has simply become more acute, as Erdogan, family and sychophants, took on more and more power, especially of late. Money has voted with its feet about these developments because investor Sovereign Risk had exploded as a steady cumulative result of it all. And the Consitutional changes that have now embedded 'Erdogan & Sons™' has baked this process in, so 12 more months will not be enough to unwind the snake that's choaking Turkey, which is a domestic snake not a foreign snake. The external actions are a belated response, not a cause. He was given plenty of slack for years prior.

IMHO, the F-35 is not going to Turkey until that factor is fully sorted out, by the Turks themselves, so plan accordingly.

[PS: I hope all of the people wrongfully imprisoned get out, soon, and frankly that's a bigger factor in this mess, and a much better and less selfish reason (and lever) to take Erdogan to the woodshed than the other good reasons of an imprisoned Pastor and S400 buy, etc. Probably said too much here, sorry if I did, but that's MHO of where the F-35 issue fits in to it. i.e Erdogan will not be able to afford them, so they are off the table--move on.]
Last edited by element1loop on 15 Aug 2018, 06:50, edited 1 time in total.
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