Canada May Back Out of F-35 Purchase: Minister

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popcorn

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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 17:05

spazsinbad wrote:Why are not other costs included as per?

Australia Buying 24 Super Hornets As Interim Gap-Fillers Dec 26, 2012 by Defense Industry Daily staff

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/aus ... jsf-02898/

"Australia’s Super Hornet purchase began life in a storm. Australia’s involvement in the F-35 Lightning II program has been mired in controversy, amid criticisms that the F-35A will (1) be unable to compete with proliferating SU-30 family fighters in the region, (2) lack the range or response time that Australia requires, and (3) be both late and very expensive during early production years. The accelerated retirement of Australia’s 22 long-range F-111s in 2010 sharpened the timing debate, by creating a serious gap between the F-111's retirement and the F-35's likely arrival.

In December 2006, therefore, The Australian [newspaper] reported that Defence Minister Brendan Nelson was discussing an A$ 3 billion (about $2.36 billion) purchase of 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornet aircraft to fill the fighter gap. The move came as “a surprise to senior defence officials on Russell Hill”; but quickly became an official purchase as requests and contracts were hurriedly submitted. Australia’s new Labor government later decided to keep the Super Hornet purchase, rather than pay cancellation fees, but added an interesting option to convert 12 into electronic warfare planes. Ministerial statements place the program’s final figure at A$ 6.6 – 7.0 billion, which includes basing, training, and other ancillary costs...."


So A$275M - A$291M per SH... enlightening,considering they would likely have factored in any potential savings in support infrastructure for their existing Classic Hornet fleet.
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 20:00

popcorn wrote:
spazsinbad wrote:Why are not other costs included as per?

Australia Buying 24 Super Hornets As Interim Gap-Fillers Dec 26, 2012 by Defense Industry Daily staff

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/aus ... jsf-02898/

"Australia’s Super Hornet purchase began life in a storm. Australia’s involvement in the F-35 Lightning II program has been mired in controversy, amid criticisms that the F-35A will (1) be unable to compete with proliferating SU-30 family fighters in the region, (2) lack the range or response time that Australia requires, and (3) be both late and very expensive during early production years. The accelerated retirement of Australia’s 22 long-range F-111s in 2010 sharpened the timing debate, by creating a serious gap between the F-111's retirement and the F-35's likely arrival.

In December 2006, therefore, The Australian [newspaper] reported that Defence Minister Brendan Nelson was discussing an A$ 3 billion (about $2.36 billion) purchase of 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornet aircraft to fill the fighter gap. The move came as “a surprise to senior defence officials on Russell Hill”; but quickly became an official purchase as requests and contracts were hurriedly submitted. Australia’s new Labor government later decided to keep the Super Hornet purchase, rather than pay cancellation fees, but added an interesting option to convert 12 into electronic warfare planes. Ministerial statements place the program’s final figure at A$ 6.6 – 7.0 billion, which includes basing, training, and other ancillary costs...."


So A$275M - A$291M per SH... enlightening,considering they would likely have factored in any potential savings in support infrastructure for their existing Classic Hornet fleet.

Your being misleading. The USN Don't publicly state how much each EA-18G costs "fully loaded" but its not exactly cheap. The F/A-18F "baseline" aircraft cost the RAAF ~$100m each, including FMS costs. The New EA-18Gs cost the Navy about $100m, so factor in upgrade costs of $20-25m per EA-18. This doesn't include GFE such as ALQ-99s.

The $6.6bn figure is the cost of buying the 24 F/A-18F, converting 12 to G standard, AND here is the expesive part, the ALQ-99s with current modules. Additionally there is specialized ground support equipment (computer based) for ALQ-99 mission programming.
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 20:03

neurotech wrote:
popcorn wrote:
spazsinbad wrote:Why are not other costs included as per?

Australia Buying 24 Super Hornets As Interim Gap-Fillers Dec 26, 2012 by Defense Industry Daily staff

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/aus ... jsf-02898/

"Australia’s Super Hornet purchase began life in a storm. Australia’s involvement in the F-35 Lightning II program has been mired in controversy, amid criticisms that the F-35A will (1) be unable to compete with proliferating SU-30 family fighters in the region, (2) lack the range or response time that Australia requires, and (3) be both late and very expensive during early production years. The accelerated retirement of Australia’s 22 long-range F-111s in 2010 sharpened the timing debate, by creating a serious gap between the F-111's retirement and the F-35's likely arrival.

In December 2006, therefore, The Australian [newspaper] reported that Defence Minister Brendan Nelson was discussing an A$ 3 billion (about $2.36 billion) purchase of 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornet aircraft to fill the fighter gap. The move came as “a surprise to senior defence officials on Russell Hill”; but quickly became an official purchase as requests and contracts were hurriedly submitted. Australia’s new Labor government later decided to keep the Super Hornet purchase, rather than pay cancellation fees, but added an interesting option to convert 12 into electronic warfare planes. Ministerial statements place the program’s final figure at A$ 6.6 – 7.0 billion, which includes basing, training, and other ancillary costs...."


So A$275M - A$291M per SH... enlightening,considering they would likely have factored in any potential savings in support infrastructure for their existing Classic Hornet fleet.

Your being misleading. The USN Don't publicly state how much each EA-18G costs "fully loaded" but its not exactly cheap. The F/A-18F "baseline" aircraft cost the RAAF ~$100m each, including FMS costs. The New EA-18Gs cost the Navy about $100m, so factor in upgrade costs of $20-25m per EA-18. This doesn't include GFE such as ALQ-99s.

The $6.6bn figure is the cost of buying the 24 F/A-18F, converting 12 to G standard, AND here is the expesive part, the ALQ-99s with current modules.


And training, facilities, simulators ....
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 21:05

'neurotech' thinks: "...The $6.6bn figure is the cost of buying the 24 F/A-18F, converting 12 to G standard, AND here is the expesive part, the ALQ-99s with current modules..." NOT TRUE. The wiring only to G standard for 12 only came later.

[ADDITION] Then later still all the bits and bobs for the Growlers were bought for a lot extra. We seem to have to outline these same points over and over on this forum. Sure the RAAF are obscure but puhleese.
Last edited by spazsinbad on 26 Jan 2013, 21:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 21:14

maus92 wrote:
neurotech wrote:
popcorn wrote:
So A$275M - A$291M per SH... enlightening,considering they would likely have factored in any potential savings in support infrastructure for their existing Classic Hornet fleet.

Your being misleading. The USN Don't publicly state how much each EA-18G costs "fully loaded" but its not exactly cheap. The F/A-18F "baseline" aircraft cost the RAAF ~$100m each, including FMS costs. The New EA-18Gs cost the Navy about $100m, so factor in upgrade costs of $20-25m per EA-18. This doesn't include GFE such as ALQ-99s.

The $6.6bn figure is the cost of buying the 24 F/A-18F, converting 12 to G standard, AND here is the expesive part, the ALQ-99s with current modules.


And training, facilities, simulators ....

Affirmative. The EA-18G is not a "kick-the-tires-and-fly" jet. Mission planning is much more rigorous than for F/A-18E/F crews. Simply put, they brief based on the type of threats they'll encounter, and what that range is, and where they need to be. This goes into extreme technical details. Conventional strike packages make use of satellite/wide-area imaging etc. ELINT from satellites and other aircraft is much less advanced or available. Those EA-18Gs WSO/EWOs don't have it easy.
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 21:30

spazsinbad wrote:'neurotech' thinks: "...The $6.6bn figure is the cost of buying the 24 F/A-18F, converting 12 to G standard, AND here is the expesive part, the ALQ-99s with current modules..." NOT TRUE. The wiring only to G standard for 12 only came later.

How do you figure that? Or are you saying the $6.6Bn doesn't include the original cost of the 24 jets. I didn't expressly state that it was the second batch of F/A-18Fs that have the extra wiring for G conversion.

The "G wiring" was done on the production line. The cost of 24 F/A-18Fs is quoted at US$2.36bn or ~$100m each, all inclusive. That is not the cost of a converted EA-18G.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/aus ... jsf-02898/
In December 2006, therefore, The Australian reported that Defence Minister Brendan Nelson was discussing an A$ 3 billion (about $2.36 billion) purchase of 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornet aircraft to fill the fighter gap. The move came as “a surprise to senior defence officials on Russell Hill”; but quickly became an official purchase as requests and contracts were hurriedly submitted. Australia’s new Labor government’s later decided to keep the Super Hornet purchase, rather than pay cancellation fees, but added an interesting option to convert 12 into electronic warfare planes. Ministerial statements place the program’s final figure at A$ 6.6 – 7.0 billion, which includes basing, training, and other ancillary costs.

Same page.
Sept 23/10 Boeing announces that the 1st RAAF F/A-18F Super Hornet with EA-18 pre-wiring has completed production. That fighter took its first test flight on Aug 12/10. Boeing is pre-wiring the RAAF’s second lot of 12 Super Hornets for potential electronic attack capability conversion, giving them a new capability dimension while eliminating high retrofit costs later.
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 21:33

Here is a good official timeline for Shornet/Growler etc.

http://www.defence.gov.au/dmo/Newsitems ... bility.cfm

"6 August 2012
Minister for Defence Stephen Smith and Minister for Defence Materiel Jason Clare has announced that the Government had decided to acquire the Growler electronic warfare system for the Super Hornet, at a cost of around $1.5 billion.

In acquiring this capability, Australia will be the only country in the world, other than the United States, operating Growler aircraft....

...In May 2009, the Government announced its decision to wire 12 of 24 Super Hornets for potential conversion to the Growler configuration. This occurred at a cost of $35 million.

In March this year, the Government announced that in addition to the decision to wire 12 Super Hornets for potential conversion to Growler, the Government would spend nearly $20 million to purchase long lead item electronic equipment for the Growler.


The decision to purchase this equipment was made to ensure that Australia continued to have access to the Growler technology should a decision be made to acquire it.

The May 2012 Budget included a capacity to acquire Growler, and it was included in the Public Defence Capability Plan released in July this year.

The Government has now made the decision to acquire the Growler electronic warfare system for the Super Hornet.

The Growlers will be available for operations from 2018.

The purchase of this equipment is being made through the United States Foreign Military Sales process.

The total capital cost estimate for this project is around $1.5 billion. This includes funding to acquire the Growler conversion kits, supporting equipment and systems, spares and training and initial training systems."
_______________

All the news that fits here:

Australia Buying 24 Super Hornets As Interim Gap-Fillers Dec 26, 2012

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/aus ... jsf-02898/

"...In December 2006, therefore, The Australian reported that Defence Minister Brendan Nelson was discussing an A$ 3 billion (about $2.36 billion) purchase of 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornet aircraft to fill the fighter gap. The move came as “a surprise to senior defence officials on Russell Hill”; but quickly became an official purchase as requests and contracts were hurriedly submitted. Australia’s new Labor government later decided to keep the Super Hornet purchase, rather than pay cancellation fees, but added an interesting option to convert 12 into electronic warfare planes. Ministerial statements place the program’s final figure at A$ 6.6 – 7.0 billion, which includes basing, training, and other ancillary costs...."

I think this last sentence is misleading - only really referring to the initial buy of 24 Shornets plus all the support etc. Later as we see from the first thread post above all the extra costs for the Growlers become evident.
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 22:17

One for the money - two for the show - three to get ready and....

Nothing 'stealthy' about the F-22 21 Feb 2007

http://www.defence.gov.au/dmo/ceo/record/21FEB.pdf (17Kb)

DR CARLO Kopp's "Nelson tries stealth to win jet fighter debate" (Opinion, 20/2/2007) is misleading in a number of areas.

Defence analysis shows that the F-22 is not the right aircraft for Australia 's air combat needs. The F-22 is without doubt a highly capable fighter aircraft, but we need a truly multi-role aircraft able to conduct the full range of air-to-ground as well as air-to-air combat missions.

Defence never has made a formal request to acquire the F-22. Nor have we ever asked US officials to start a process to lift the Congressional ban on selling the F-22. It is hardly unusual that the US should decide that some of its military technology is not for export, and hence the F-22 remains prohibited from export by US Congressional legislation.

The recent letter from the US Deputy Secretary of Defence regarding the non-availability of the F-22 was in response to a letter from the Minister for Defence, Dr Nelson, advising of Australia's intended participation in the next phase of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program — already an example of successful alliance co-operation. The Government has not yet made a final decision to acquire the JSF and will continue to assess its options ahead of a decision in 2008.

Air Vice-Marshal John Harvey, Program Manager, New Air Combat Capability Project, Department of Defence, Canberra"
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 22:21

@Spazsinbad: What I am disagreeing with popcorn's claim that a F/A-18F costs A$275m each, they do not. They are ~$100m each. A converted EA-18G, is not a F/A-18F.
IF Australia buys additional Super Hornets (F/A-18Fs) they'll most likely cost ~$100m.

I'm not disputing that the total is A$6.6m when everything is included, I just don't like when misleading figures to make XYZ aircraft appear insanely expensive compared to ZYZ fighter solution. A$1.5Bn costs directly related to the conversion seems believable. "The total capital cost estimate for this project is around $1.5 billion. This includes funding to acquire the Growler conversion kits, supporting equipment and systems, spares and training and initial training systems."
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 22:59

'neurotech' fair enough. Things do get confused easily. I think the figure for any MORE potential RAAF Supers has been bandied about already in the media. I do not pay much attention I must admit. We can afford it whatever it is (despite Defence Budget cutbacks).
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 23:40

Have been looking for the estimated purchase price of $1.5 Bil for another 24 Supers on top of the 24 the RAAF have already. This report is from early 2011 where again the $6.1 Billion is touted for overall expenditure for the first 24....

Air force eyes 18 more Super Hornets as delays dog our new fighter by: EXCLUSIVE Brendan Nicholson, Defence editor From: The Australian April 11, 2011

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... 6036923907

"DEVELOPMENT of the revolutionary Joint Strike Fighter, intended to provide Australia's air defence through this century, is running well behind schedule and the RAAF may need to buy 18 more Super Hornets for $1.5 billion to fill the gap....

...The Howard government bought 24 Super Hornets for $6bn in 2007 to fill an earlier strategic gap left when the RAAF's F-111 bombers were withdrawn ahead of time because of concerns about fatigue.

Defence officials are preparing for the government a range of options to fill this looming gap in air defences with the most likely being the purchase of a further 18 Super Hornets for about $800 million each. [I reckon an extra 'nought' somehow got into that 800 instead of only 80.]

That would make economic sense, because the $6bn purchase price for the first 24 Super Hornets included the infrastructure to support them and that can be used for the additional aircraft...."
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Unread post26 Jan 2013, 23:46

Also relevant to CANADA...

Australia’s air combat capability – the next step? 19 Dec 2012 By Andrew Davies

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/super- ... apability/

"...There is one significant difference in the situations that Australia and Canada face. Australia has already bitten the bullet and bought 24 Super Hornets—which achieved Final Operating Capability last week. That means that a lot of the fixed costs that come with a new type—the training and support packages, simulator, maintenance facilities etc—have already been incurred. To give an idea of how the costs work, the first 24 Super Hornets came at a total cost of $6.1 billion. Of that, well under half was for the aircraft themselves (called the ‘flyaway cost’). My estimate is that we paid about $2.5 billion in flyaway costs (based on US Navy prices), another $1.7 billion for all of the spares and support equipment, and the rest on running costs for the first decade of their lives.

The ‘sticker price’ for Super Hornets is currently running at about $83 million each, or just on $2 billion for 24. Any further tranche would still come with additional costs above that. It’s hard to estimate how much—perhaps an extra $500 million to $1 billion. But they wouldn’t cost as much as if we were starting from scratch. Canada, however, has no such ‘natural’ fallback option—any other type it acquired would come at the full acquisition cost. If things go as planned, the F-35 won’t cost much more than its competitors. That’s why some Canadian commentators are predicting that the F-35 will still be the preferred option after the ‘reset’ process runs its course.

Of course, any decision to buy more Super Hornets won’t be made solely on the grounds of cost. The government will be anxious to avoid any gap in capability, as was the Howard government in 2006 when it made the initial decision to buy Super Hornets to replace the F-111 when it retired. But the financial circumstances then and now are very different. The Howard government had relatively little trouble finding the money for the first 24. The current government has no such luxury, and will be looking at the bottom line carefully...."
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Unread post27 Jan 2013, 00:10

neurotech wrote:@Spazsinbad: What I am disagreeing with popcorn's claim that a F/A-18F costs A$275m each, they do not. They are ~$100m each. A converted EA-18G, is not a F/A-18F.
IF Australia buys additional Super Hornets (F/A-18Fs) they'll most likely cost ~$100m.

I'm not disputing that the total is A$6.6m when everything is included, I just don't like when misleading figures to make XYZ aircraft appear insanely expensive compared to ZYZ fighter solution. A$1.5Bn costs directly related to the conversion seems believable. "The total capital cost estimate for this project is around $1.5 billion. This includes funding to acquire the Growler conversion kits, supporting equipment and systems, spares and training and initial training systems."


Good,that you are not disputing the A$6.6B program cost,which is what I am focusing on and which F-35 critics like to highlight whenever they want to put the program,down. Total program cost divided by 24 units.. what's misleading about that? Just goes to show how easy it is to sensationalize the cost of any program without providing context to suit any agenda one wishes. Anyway, it got the reaction I was expecting.
Growler obviously costs more than a F, I wasn't claiming otherwise, was I? Simple division.
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Unread post27 Jan 2013, 00:59

neurotech wrote:@Spazsinbad: What I am disagreeing with popcorn's claim that a F/A-18F costs A$275m each, they do not. They are ~$100m each. A converted EA-18G, is not a F/A-18F.
IF Australia buys additional Super Hornets (F/A-18Fs) they'll most likely cost ~$100m.

I'm not disputing that the total is A$6.6m when everything is included, I just don't like when misleading figures to make XYZ aircraft appear insanely expensive compared to ZYZ fighter solution. A$1.5Bn costs directly related to the conversion seems believable. "The total capital cost estimate for this project is around $1.5 billion. This includes funding to acquire the Growler conversion kits, supporting equipment and systems, spares and training and initial training systems."


Good,that you are not disputing the A$6.6B program cost,which is what I am focusing on and which F-35 critics like to highlight whenever they want to pt the program,down. Total program cost divided by 24 units.. what's misleading about that?
Yes a Growler obviously costs more than a F, I wasn't claiming otherwise, was I? Simple division.
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Unread post27 Jan 2013, 01:28

And for comparison to the Shornet cost per airframe/engines/avionics? included here is the recent OzGovmnt Audit Estimate:

Management of Australia’s Air Combat Capability—F-35A Joint Strike Fighter Acquisition June 2012

http://www.anao.gov.au/Publications/Aud ... t-brochure

"...41. As at June 2012, the JSF Program Office estimated the Unit Recurring Flyaway (URF) cost of a CTOL F-35A aircraft for Fiscal Year 2012 to be US$131.4 million. That cost includes the baseline aircraft configuration, including airframe, engine and avionics. The URF cost is estimated to reduce to US$127.3 million in 2013, and to US$83.4 million in 2019. These expected price reductions take into account economies of scale resulting from increasing production volumes, as well as the effects of inflation. The estimates indicate that, after 2019, inflation will increase the URF cost of each F-35A by about US$2 million per year. However, these estimates remain dependent upon expected orders from the United States and other nations, as well as the delivery of expected benefits of continuing Will-Cost/Should-Cost management by the US Department of Defense...."
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