Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuses on

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
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quicksilver

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Unread post11 Feb 2020, 16:04

steve2267 wrote:
quicksilver wrote:USAF not gonna get the EX numbers they want either as the sunrise of cost realism burns away all the marketing mist. It will be $100M+/jet if it’s a penny, and they’ll end up w/ fewer.


Some sources said the USAF never wanted the EX. If true, then the EX would seem to be a sacrificial lamb -- if the USAF doesn't get as many "as they want", c'est la vie, cut them "boo, hoo, how will we ever survive? sniffle sniffle"... just as long as PCA isn't touched.


USAF got ‘leveraged’ into the buy. But, so much for the BA claims that the jet was gonna be $90M-ish, and later $80M. Mark my words — $100M+. It may end up looking like the Pamela Anderson/Jon Peters marriage. :doh:
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steve2267

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Unread post11 Feb 2020, 16:37

Perhaps I did not express my point as well I could have. Which is...

Whether the USAF didn't want the EX, or got leveraged into the USAF, I suspect they care not for the EX. Going to make us buy it, ok fine, we'll fly it. But if buying the EX gives us a lamb we can sacrifice later so that we can keep PCA, so much the better.

Am I tracking?
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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quicksilver

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Unread post11 Feb 2020, 16:51

steve2267 wrote:Perhaps I did not express my point as well I could have. Which is...

Whether the USAF didn't want the EX, or got leveraged into the USAF, I suspect they care not for the EX. Going to make us buy it, ok fine, we'll fly it. But if buying the EX gives us a lamb we can sacrifice later so that we can keep PCA, so much the better.

Am I tracking?


I don’t think PCA has ever been in jeopardy. Call it what we wish, the EX buy was a consequence of an unsolicited proposal by BA; for a service looking forward to a whole lotta compelling bills to pay for other stuff, it remains a head-scratcher.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post11 Feb 2020, 17:50

quicksilver wrote: Mark my words — $100M+. It may end up looking like the Pamela Anderson/Jon Peters marriage. :doh:



oh indeed. The numbers were more massaged than a Thailand parlor during fleet week
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marauder2048

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Unread post12 Feb 2020, 02:19

If you look at the FY2020/FY2021 PCA/NGAD funding profile and compare it to the pre-F15EX FY19 profile,
it's clear that PCA/NGAD funding took a massive hit.

The Air Force had indicated in the F-22 Restart study that even funding the $1.6 billion to re-wing/re-longeron
the F-15C/D fleet would compete with resources for NGAD/PCA.

Hard to imagine why the Air Force would want to exacerbate that situation further with far more expensive
new builds especially since the cheaper F-15C/D SLEP still results in a larger fleet (if you accept the premise
that politically, PCA requires a minimum fleet replacement size).
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weasel1962

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Unread post12 Feb 2020, 04:03

Jobs program aside...Its not just F-15s, its 36 4G (incl F-18s) and the give, stopping SH procurement (restoring B buys).

As long as the numbers look like the attached, EX is still going to happen.
cost.png


Budget wise, regardless of how numbers are massaged, a budget limit is a budget limit. The longeron replacements are still budgeted so its a case of both replacement and new builds.

If EPAWSS needs to be in place for survivability, then it makes some sense to be in a new build than in an aircraft at the tail end of its service life.

F-35B: FY 21: 10, FY 22: 17, FY 23 -25: 20 per year.
F-35C: FY 22: 21, FY 22: 20, FY 23-24: 26, 26, FY 25: 28.
Remaining 115 B+130 C = 245 or 41 per year until FY 2031. This will catch up to the 45 a year FRP for USN F-35 SAR.
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weasel1962

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Unread post12 Feb 2020, 04:16

Looking at USAF projections.

The F-35A is retained at 48 per year until FY 2025.
F-15EX is plotted at FY 22: 12, FY 23: 14, FY 24 & 25: 19 each. So by the Trump leaves office, it would be 84 with "only" 60 to go...

Will not reach 72 USAF fighter buy per year by FY 2025 even with the F-15EX...

The expected minimum procurement quantity for F-15EX is 144 aircraft (a combination of 2 in RDTE (PE27134F); 6 in F015E0 (Line #3); and 136 in F015EX (Line #4). F-15EX is currently a Middle Tier Acquisition program, not a Major Defense Acquisition Program. Once the program transitions to a Major Defense Acquisition Program and the Acquisition Program Baseline is approved, the total program quantity for F-15EX will be established. All numbers are based on the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency's initial Non-Advocate Cost Assessment and will be refined for major milestones and on an annual basis.

The F-15EX will be based on the 2-seat F-15QA (Qatar) configuration upgraded with USAF-only capabilities, including the Eagle Passive Active Warning and Survivability System (EPAWSS) and the Suite 9.1 Operational Flight Program (OFP) software. With two seats, it will be multirole-capable and operable by one or two aircrew. Many F-15C/Ds are beyond their service life and have serious structures risks, wire chafing issues, and obsolete parts. Readiness goals are unachievable due to continuous structural inspections, time-consuming repairs, and on-going modernization efforts. The average F-15C/D is 36 years old with over 8,400 flight hours; the oldest F-15C was delivered in 1979. F-15EX logistics, maintenance, and training will heavily leverage existing the F-15 infrastructure.
Last edited by weasel1962 on 12 Feb 2020, 04:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post12 Feb 2020, 04:19

Simple fact is the F-35 is ramping up to full production in the next couple of years. While, the price continues to decline. That trend shows no signs of even slowing down. As orders for the new Stealth Fighter grows by the day.


The F-15EX on the other hand is a few years from even entering service. Which, besides costing more is vastly less capable than additional F-35's. This with the back drop of ever and ever tighter US Defense Budgets.


My guess is FY2020 order for 8 and the FY2021 order for 12 will likely go thru...Yet, past that is extremely "questionable"


IMHO
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quicksilver

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Unread post12 Feb 2020, 04:28

12 EX jets for $1.269B= $105.8M

And that assumes no AP spent last year...
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weasel1962

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Unread post12 Feb 2020, 04:30

FY 21 budgets a lot 15 buy. It also does not appear to share sentiments that the unit flyaway cost will reduce significantly thereafter (see flyaway unit cost line).

F-35 flyaway unit cost projection.png
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weasel1962

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Unread post12 Feb 2020, 04:33

quicksilver wrote:12 EX jets for $1.269B= $105.8M

And that assumes no AP spent last year...


and it will go up to $117m per plane by FY 25 (total gross unit costs, not flyaway unit) or $17m differential with F-35 by FY 2025.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post12 Feb 2020, 06:28

weasel1962 wrote:
quicksilver wrote:12 EX jets for $1.269B= $105.8M

And that assumes no AP spent last year...


and it will go up to $117m per plane by FY 25 (total gross unit costs, not flyaway unit) or $17m differential with F-35 by FY 2025.



In short the case will become harder and harder for the F-15EX. Especially, if the US Defense Budgets continues to tighten...
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