JASDF F-35A crashed

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gc

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 13:48

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zero-one

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 14:16

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japa ... SKCN1RL1FJ

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s Air Self-Defence Force said on Tuesday that an F-35 fighter jet disappeared from radar as it was flying over the Pacific Ocean.

The jet was flying some 135 km (84 miles) east of northern Japan at about 7:27 p.m. (1027 GMT) when it dropped off radar, the military said.


What are the chances that it can still be recovered flying somewhere?
I personally think its very unlikely at this point. If they are already searching for it, then its safe to say its been gone for a pretty long time now.

Honestly, there are only 2 likely scenarios on the top of my head.
-it crashed
-Pilot defected to China or Russia.

Both aren't pretty but I would choose the former over the latter. Hopefully the pilot is safe somewhere.
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mixelflick

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 14:46

That (defection) possibility.... I never even considered that. But it is a possibility, and a scary one at that. Imagine, it would be the Mig-25 1976 defection to Japan all over again.

I would certainly hope LM, Pratt and Whitney etc. planned for something like this. Maybe tamper resistant code of some sort? Does anyone know of what anti-pirating/defection measures have been taken on the F-35 program?

If it is a defection, at least it's early in the program. Never going to be good news, but at least LM etc can make modifications to subsequent F-35's to negate a total and complete raping of its secrets..
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playloud

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 14:52

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019 ... PPwaMXc2TQ
TOKYO - The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force said Tuesday an F-35A fighter jet deployed at Misawa Air Base in northeastern Japan disappeared from radar over the Pacific during a training exercise.

The stealth fighter was flying with three other aircraft off the coast of Aomori Prefecture some 135 kilometers east of the base when radar contact was lost around 7:27 p.m., it said.

Radio communication cannot be established with the missing single-crew fighter, and search operations are under way.

The fighter is one of 13 F-35As deployed at Misawa.

Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya told reporters the ASDF will ground the 12 remaining F-35As for the time being.

Japan began deploying U.S.-developed F-35As, each of which costs over 10 billion yen ($90 million), in January 2018 to replace the aging F-4 fighter jet. Japan plans to eventually deploy a total of 105 F-35As in addition to 42 F-35B short takeoff aircraft that it will purchase at a later date.

Why don't the three other aircraft know what happened?
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fbw

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 14:58

Pilot defected to China or Russia.

Both aren't pretty but I would choose the former over the latter. Hopefully the pilot is safe somewhere.


Aircraft disappeared 135Km east of Misawa, there is nothing but ocean in that direction. Think we can rule out defection.
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optimist

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 15:07

Sadly for the family, we can assume it went down.
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sferrin

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 15:35

I hope they work as hard as possible to recover that aircraft. :doh:
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Dragon029

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 15:51

playloud wrote:Why don't the three other aircraft know what happened?

I don't want to get too much into speculating, but I've run through around a dozen different plausible causes and the most likely by a long shot seems some kind of loss of consciousness, whether it was G-LOC, an ECS failure or some other medical issue; most other possibilities rely on independent systems failing simultaneously, or issues where the pilot has time to make a mayday call or navigate towards home, but decides not to for some reason. Defection seems even less likely than those to me.
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Gamera

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 16:03

Tuesday, 9 April 2019:
F-35A.
302nd Hikoutai, 3rd Koukuudan, JASDF, based at Misawa AB, Aomori Prefecture.

One of flight of four.

19:27, during training, lost radar contact, above Pacific Ocean, 135 km east from Misawa AB.

One pilot.

Major (40s).

https://www.mod.go.jp/asdf/news/houdou/index.html
https://www.mod.go.jp/asdf/news/houdou/ ... 9_2030.pdf

Official MOD press release(s).
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mmm

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 21:41

So potentially the first incident with loss of life? If it is a physiological episode then that would be a given. If not what's the chance of recovering an over water ejection when there's a lot of unknown regarding location? Correct me if I'm wrong but either there's a good fix on location and it's done in the first few hours(normally because the pilot is able to communicate about the imminent loss) or it will never be, no?

Now it may not have been a defection, it doesn't prevent someone else from recovering the wreckage.
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fbw

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 22:27

Now it may not have been a defection, it doesn't prevent someone else from recovering the wreckage.


I’ve seen several commentators suggest this is a potential threat, including Lt. Gen (Ret) David Deptula. Not to dismiss this, but there is no way of knowing if the wreckage is in pieces, or how easy it will be to find. Provided it went down where contact was lost, it lies close to Japan and in its EEZ. Japan has ships in the area searching now, and any potential covert mission by an adversary would take some time to prepare and travel there.

While such a threat isn’t outside the realm of possibility, I think a bigger concern is the fate of the pilot and the cause of the crash right now
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Corsair1963

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 23:34

As usual we will just have to wait until further information becomes available..... :|
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marsavian

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 23:42

Dragon029 wrote:
playloud wrote:Why don't the three other aircraft know what happened?

I don't want to get too much into speculating, but I've run through around a dozen different plausible causes and the most likely by a long shot seems some kind of loss of consciousness, whether it was G-LOC, an ECS failure or some other medical issue; most other possibilities rely on independent systems failing simultaneously, or issues where the pilot has time to make a mayday call or navigate towards home, but decides not to for some reason. Defection seems even less likely than those to me.


Weren't the other aircraft in MADL range and connected ? Well if it was G-LOC Auto-GCAS can't come quick enough for the F-35.
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rheonomic

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Unread post09 Apr 2019, 23:55

mixelflick wrote:I would certainly hope LM, Pratt and Whitney etc. planned for something like this. Maybe tamper resistant code of some sort? Does anyone know of what anti-pirating/defection measures have been taken on the F-35 program

I believe that part of the design for export included protections for the on-board software and hardware, but I wouldn't expect much detail to be publicly available.
marsavian wrote:Weren't the other aircraft in MADL range and connected ? Well if it was G-LOC Auto-GCAS can't come quick enough for the F-35.

It would suck to have a CFIT right as GCAS is being integrated ... also, if over-water spatial disorientation is a possible CFIT cause in addition to G-LOC.

I think the current blocks have manual GCAS / PARS available but if the pilot doesn't activate them...

Anyways, far too early for speculation.
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charlielima223

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Unread post10 Apr 2019, 00:27

The vultures who constantly circle now have something else to pick and peck at.
I don't believe defection is a real possibility. Politically and militarily; Japan and China aren't even lukewarm to each other.
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