The Turkey problem

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
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mixelflick

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Unread post03 Apr 2019, 13:36

Thank God we caught this one before it was too late..

Having such an advanced piece of technology compromised so early in the program's history could have been a deal killer. Who would buy F-35's if the perception is that because of Turkey/Russia getting a look at it - it's a sitting duck?

Then again, that happened to the F-14. The USN went on to successfully use it/made changes to keep it one step ahead but, no other nation ordered it. In fairness that likely had more to do with the cost of the weapons system and the fact it was a Naval fighter didn't make it very attractive. You could buy a lot more F-16's for the same $, and many nations did. Plus, not every nation needed an aircraft capable of downing Foxbat overflights..
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scudbuster

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Unread post03 Apr 2019, 18:24

These are the F-35 components that are produced by Turkey.
Approximately $700 million in products and services to date.

Source is Turkish Undersecretariat for Defense Industry
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Turkey - F-35.jpg
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spazsinbad

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Unread post03 Apr 2019, 21:02

In English a list of Turkish F-35/F135 Industrial Particpants:

https://www.f35.com/global/participatio ... ticipation
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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durahawk

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Unread post03 Apr 2019, 22:48

mixelflick wrote:Thank God we caught this one before it was too late..

Having such an advanced piece of technology compromised so early in the program's history could have been a deal killer. Who would buy F-35's if the perception is that because of Turkey/Russia getting a look at it - it's a sitting duck?

Then again, that happened to the F-14. The USN went on to successfully use it/made changes to keep it one step ahead but, no other nation ordered it. In fairness that likely had more to do with the cost of the weapons system and the fact it was a Naval fighter didn't make it very attractive. You could buy a lot more F-16's for the same $, and many nations did. Plus, not every nation needed an aircraft capable of downing Foxbat overflights..


There is much to criticize with intelligence failures regarding the F-14 sale to Iran, but the Shah wasn't actively undermining US Foreign Policy at the time of the deliveies. Conituing to sell the F-35 to Turkey would be even more foolish at this point.

I think the big sticking point right now is what happens to all the R&D costs and program dues Turkey contributed. Do they need to be paid back? How are the industrial offsets accounted for? This is not a stardard FMS sale, they are a Level III partner, there are a lot more strings attached.

This is why Erdogan is betting on the US backing down.

https://www.npr.org/2019/04/03/70922296 ... er-to-blin
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is showing no signs of yielding to the United States. He says he remains interested in getting the Patriot missile system but insists the S-400 deal with Russia is done and Turkey is not turning back. "Nobody," Erdogan told one Turkish TV interviewer, "should ask us to lick up what we spat."

"This is a very rocky relationship," says Asli Aydintasbas, an Istanbul-based senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

As Erdogan frenetically campaigned across Turkey in the lead-up to municipal elections held Sunday, she adds, at "each and every rally he [brought] up S-400s, saying, 'We're going to buy it; they told me not to buy it' — almost making it look like it's a sign of his virility, his independence, his power on the world stage that he could say no to [the] United States."
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blain

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Unread post04 Apr 2019, 00:10

durahawk wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Thank God we caught this one before it was too late..

Having such an advanced piece of technology compromised so early in the program's history could have been a deal killer. Who would buy F-35's if the perception is that because of Turkey/Russia getting a look at it - it's a sitting duck?

Then again, that happened to the F-14. The USN went on to successfully use it/made changes to keep it one step ahead but, no other nation ordered it. In fairness that likely had more to do with the cost of the weapons system and the fact it was a Naval fighter didn't make it very attractive. You could buy a lot more F-16's for the same $, and many nations did. Plus, not every nation needed an aircraft capable of downing Foxbat overflights..


There is much to criticize with intelligence failures regarding the F-14 sale to Iran, but the Shah wasn't actively undermining US Foreign Policy at the time of the deliveies. Conituing to sell the F-35 to Turkey would be even more foolish at this point.

I think the big sticking point right now is what happens to all the R&D costs and program dues Turkey contributed. Do they need to be paid back? How are the industrial offsets accounted for? This is not a stardard FMS sale, they are a Level III partner, there are a lot more strings attached.

This is why Erdogan is betting on the US backing down.

https://www.npr.org/2019/04/03/70922296 ... er-to-blin
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is showing no signs of yielding to the United States. He says he remains interested in getting the Patriot missile system but insists the S-400 deal with Russia is done and Turkey is not turning back. "Nobody," Erdogan told one Turkish TV interviewer, "should ask us to lick up what we spat."

"This is a very rocky relationship," says Asli Aydintasbas, an Istanbul-based senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

As Erdogan frenetically campaigned across Turkey in the lead-up to municipal elections held Sunday, she adds, at "each and every rally he [brought] up S-400s, saying, 'We're going to buy it; they told me not to buy it' — almost making it look like it's a sign of his virility, his independence, his power on the world stage that he could say no to [the] United States."


Turkey doesn't need to be paid back. They need to be kicked to the road like they did with the 4th Infantry Division during Iraqi Freedom. Trump should remind them of this when we keep their F-35s.
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Unread post04 Apr 2019, 00:21

I'm pleased that buffoon is not hiding his idiotic vain stupidity, Israel and Greece thank him along with the rest of sane NATO.

https://jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict ... 585634/amp

According to foreign reports, Israel has already quietly tested ways to defeat the advanced Russian air defense system, participating in several joint drills with the Greek Air Force over the island of Crete where one S-300 system is stationed. The drills have reportedly allowed Israeli warplanes to gather data on how the advanced system may be blinded or fooled.
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Unread post04 Apr 2019, 16:01

marsavian wrote:I'm pleased that buffoon is not hiding his idiotic vain stupidity, Israel and Greece thank him along with the rest of sane NATO.

https://jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict ... 585634/amp

According to foreign reports, Israel has already quietly tested ways to defeat the advanced Russian air defense system, participating in several joint drills with the Greek Air Force over the island of Crete where one S-300 system is stationed. The drills have reportedly allowed Israeli warplanes to gather data on how the advanced system may be blinded or fooled.


Beautiful.

Because if they know it, we know it...
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Unread post04 Apr 2019, 16:26

"Turkey must choose. Does it want to remain a critical partner of the most successful military alliance in the history of the world? Or does it want to risk the security of that partnership by making reckless decisions that undermine our alliance?" Pence said Wednesday.

His comments drew a sharp response from his Turkish counterpart who issued an ultimatum of his own, demanding the US end its support for Kurdish groups in Syria who have fought ISIS.

"The United States must choose. Does it want to remain Turkey's ally or risk our friendship by joining forces with terrorists to undermine its NATO ally's defense against its enemies?" Turkey's Vice President Fuat Oktay wrote on Twitter.


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/03/poli ... index.html

Quite an escalation... To my knowledge this is the first time a high-level US official have questioned the Turkish NATO membership in an official statement!
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Unread post04 Apr 2019, 22:22

Trump may ‘take care’ of F-35, S-400 issue, Turkish official claims
03 Apr 2019

"...Çavuşoğlu also claimed that U.S. President Donald Trump has opened the door to keeping F-35 sales to Turkey going, despite a Pentagon statement this week that the Department of Defense was cutting off delivery of parts for the plane, needed in advance of Turkey taking the jets into service this summer, due to the S-400 issue.

Top U.S. and alliance officials have said the S-400 cannot be allowed to tie into any NATO systems, but the F-35 in particular, given its importance to a number of allied nations for at least the next thirty years.

Çavuşoğlu sidestepped repeated questions about what impact losing the industrial participation of the F-35 program could have on Turkey’s economy, saying “we are a part of this program. It should be that simple.” But notably, he expressed a belief that the F-35 sales will eventually turn back on, noting “different statements are coming from different institutions of the United States as well… different and contradictory statements are coming.”

Asked what he meant, Çavuşoğlu claimed that a phone call “recently” from U.S. President Donald Trump to Turkish President Recep Erdoğan involved Trump promising that he “would take care of this issue.” [bold lie?]

In response, a senior administration official said, “We have been clear and consistent in emphasizing our grave concerns on the S-400 acquisition with representatives of the Turkish government on numerous occasions and at the highest levels.”

And speaking at the same venue several hours later, Vice President Mike Pence indicated there was no change in the U.S. posture towards the S-400, saying “Turkey must choose. Does it want to remain a critical partner in the most successful military alliance in history or does it want to risk the security of that partnership” through Russian technology.

Çavuşoğlu said Turkey has also proposed a technical working group inside NATO to figure out how to keep the S-400 firewalled off from other systems, saying “it doesn’t have to be integrated to a NATO system, and that is not our aim. This is for our own use.” “This is an urgent need of Turkey. We need air defense systems urgently… because of the traffic in the neighborhood. Everybody has missiles in the neighboring countries, in Syria, in others. NATO is not capable enough to cover our airspace yet,” the minister added...."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... al-claims/
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Unread post04 Apr 2019, 22:25

Maybe Turkey can give the S-400 to their new friends Pakistan and in return accept the new Patriot offer from the U.S.

It would allow them to get the F-35, save face (by claiming they got a great deal for the Patriots) and not damage relations with Russia (as the S-400 is still being delivered)
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Unread post04 Apr 2019, 22:47

Parts Delays Impacting F-35 Production, Turkey Situation Likely to Make it Worse
04 Apr 2019 Brian Everstine​

"F-35 production lines are facing long delays in parts deliveries, a fact that would be exacerbated if Turkey is removed from the program and Turkish parts providers are cut off from the supply chain, the head of the joint program office told lawmakers on Thursday.

F-35 Program Executive Vice Adm. Mat Winter said Lockheed Martin’s F-35 production line in Fort Worth, Texas, is an average of 200 parts late each month. That means work related to these parts is pushed later on in the production line instead of a work stoppage, which is causing “a lot of extra management, extra touch, and extra work that has to occur” and is “driving that price up,” he told the House Armed Services subcommittee on tactical and land forces on Thursday.

The strategy going forward is to reduce strain on the parts providers by having them only produce new parts for the production lines and spares, and have depots focus on repairs, Winter said. Previously the providers were responsible for all three….

...The recent controversy regarding Turkey’s involvement in the program could exacerbate the problem, Winter said. Turkey is moving forward with purchasing the Russian-made S-400 missile system, which US officials say endangers the country’s future with the F-35 because they do not want the US-made fifth generation fighter operating alongside the Russian system or Russian operators.

There are seven companies inside Turkey that produce parts, which combined equal about 6-7 percent of the total F-35 supply chain, Winter said. “Right now there’s no disruption to the supply chain from any partners,” but if Turkey is cut off from the program, that would interrupt the flow of parts, not only to the Fort Worth line, but also production facilities in Italy and Japan, Winter said. There would be an impact within 45-90 days of slowing down the delivery of parts, potentially causing a delay that would impact 50-75 airplanes over a two-year time period, he added."

Source: http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... Worse.aspx

Turkey: S-400 is a “Done Deal,” But That Shouldn’t Impact F-35 Participation
03 Apr 2019 Brian Everstine

"[more 'he said / she said' - Russia has done a good job driving a wedge between Turkey & NATO to derail the F-35 RAMP]

Source: http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... ation.aspx
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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charlielima223

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Unread post05 Apr 2019, 21:37

As I am seeing and reading this whole thing I can't help but think this is a business deal gone bad.

As a layman this is how I am seeing it...
Big business deal (F-35 program) with multiple partners (US, UK, Italy Netherlands, Australia, Denmark, Canada, Norway, and Turkey). All partners within the business deal have a say and interest in the security of the business. Business deal has potential to create a lucrative profit through additional partners/buyers (Japan, South Korea, Israel, and Belgium). One of the business partners (Turkey) makes a deal with a rival business competitor (Russia). This deal compromises the business itself the the prospect for future sales.

In a regular business with multiple partners and investors involved, if one of the investors/partners goes against the others by acting in a way that damages/compromises the business; then it is within the interest of the others as well as the business to oust the investor/partner that damaged or compromised the business.

Am I missing anything?

Also why can't the US Military offer to buy the F-35As. Wouldn't that allow them to increase the production rate all while having more F-35's in their fleet? Why can't they take the F-35As at Luke AFB assigned to Turkey and offer to sell it to other more interested parties?
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SpudmanWP

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Unread post05 Apr 2019, 22:46

The disposition of the already built F-35s is not the primary issue. Most of the problem will be concentrated in the area of replacing the production sources for the parts that cam from Turkey (6% of the total IIRC).

Without seeing the actual contracts, I can't speak to what will happen to the already in production or already built Turkish F-35s.
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."
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Unread post06 Apr 2019, 01:18

LOOONNGGG article so excerpts probably won't do it justice... BEST READ AT SOURCE.
Here’s how F-35 technology would be compromised if Turkey also had the S-400 anti-aircraft system
05 Apr 2019 Kyle Rempfer

"...the systems its [Turkey] leaders are looking to acquire could be used to gather intelligence on how America’s latest generation fighter, the F-35, and possibly others, operate. That information could then end up in the hands of the Russians. “It’s astounding to see everyone in the same direction on this,” said Rick Berger, a defense budget and military acquisition researcher at AEI and former Senate Budget Committee staffer....

The technical risks
If Turkey acquired the S-400 alongside the F-35, the technology that makes that aircraft lethal could potentially be compromised. NATO states use a tactical data link that allows military aircraft and even ships and ground troops to share their tactical pictures in near-real time. This is called Link 16. NATO aircraft also use Identification Friend or Foe systems, known as IFF, to identify friendly aircraft in the sky.

An IFF and Link 16 interrogator would have to be integrated into the S-400 system to allow the Turkish F-35, with the transponder, to fly within lethal range of the S-400. This opens up all Link 16 and IFF tactical data link equipment to be compromised, a former radar and weapons expert said on background.

“With the F-35 flying in close proximity to the S-400 system, over time, you could collect sensitive stealth characteristics of this F-35 and learn its detailed stealth capabilities,” the expert said. The waveform off the Lightning II’s stealthy surfaces and its transmissions are highly classified in order to protect radar operating parameters, stealth technology and encrypted Link 16 codes. For instance, “when you know the waveform, you can spoof them," sending a fake signal to a receiver in order to trick an operator.

The concern is not necessarily that the Turkish military would compromise this sensitive data, but instead that malware on the S-400 or Russian workers operating, setting up or maintaining the system would access the info. These S-400s are highly networked, with nodes spanning hundreds of miles. There would be multiple, vulnerable nodes that could potentially broadcast sensitive data back to Russia or, perhaps, the highest bidder. Even operating U.S. Air Force F-35s out of Incirlik Air Base could become difficult if an S-400 was nearby....

...It will also cost Turkey, though. After all, the F-35 program is good for the Turkish economy and industrial base. “I don’t know if they understand whether they got taken by the Russians on this,” Berger said. “Yeah, the S-400 is a great system, but the price [Turkish leaders] are going to pay is massive."

The decision to buy the S-400 appears to be largely about showing that Turkey isn’t beholden to the West, Berger said. But Turkey could have made the same point by buying something else from the Russians. “We’re not tiptoeing to ‘Do you want to be in NATO or aligned with the Russians?’ " he added. "This is basically the end of the road: the most salient military trade-off that they could make.”"

Source: https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your ... ft-system/
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Unread post06 Apr 2019, 10:26

Two short articles on ONE PDF page attached below from the 9-15 Apr 2019 FLIGHT International. Nice take away quote:
"It boggles the mind why Turkey would wish to weaken the defences of an aircraft it plans to buy in such abundance"
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Turkish Imbroglio Flight International 9-15 Apr 2019 PRN.pdf
(57.54 KiB) Downloaded 114 times
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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