The Turkey problem

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
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marsavian

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Unread post10 Oct 2018, 05:37

I suspect the Turks will still produce the parts even after being denied the F-35 just for economic reasons. The transition away from Turkish involvement may in the end be quite smooth because after all they are still technically a NATO ally even if they want to be more independent and free thinking in their actions.
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steve2267

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Unread post10 Oct 2018, 17:53

When I worked in the launch vehicle biz, we were always cognizant of single-points-of-failure and did our best to avoid them if at all possible. One of the reasons for the creation of United Launch Alliance was to avoid a single-point-of-failure in the US Government launch capability -- if Delta IV had an uh-oh, Atlas V could still launch payloads whilst an investigation discovered and corrected whatever went wrong on the other vehicle.

I would like to think the LM executives, being smart folks (generally) and being paid to think about these sorts of things, have some contingency plans figured out for replacing any single supplier for all the bits on F-35 if something goes hiccup. IMO, 18-24 interruption in production if the Turks have to be cut out is unacceptable, especially since this problem has been percolating -- in public -- for the past 12+ months. To me, if that is the case, some executive(s) have not been doing their job. But what do I know... I just crunched numbers.
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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marsavian

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Unread post11 Oct 2018, 21:46

Pastor being freed for economic relief.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -us-pastor
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lamoey

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Unread post12 Oct 2018, 00:10

steve2267 wrote:When I worked in the launch vehicle biz, we were always cognizant of single-points-of-failure and did our best to avoid them if at all possible. One of the reasons for the creation of United Launch Alliance was to avoid a single-point-of-failure in the US Government launch capability -- if Delta IV had an uh-oh, Atlas V could still launch payloads whilst an investigation discovered and corrected whatever went wrong on the other vehicle.

I would like to think the LM executives, being smart folks (generally) and being paid to think about these sorts of things, have some contingency plans figured out for replacing any single supplier for all the bits on F-35 if something goes hiccup. IMO, 18-24 interruption in production if the Turks have to be cut out is unacceptable, especially since this problem has been percolating -- in public -- for the past 12+ months. To me, if that is the case, some executive(s) have not been doing their job. But what do I know... I just crunched numbers.


Normal monetary thinking does not apply to would be dictators, as the Turkish economy and currency is a living proof of these days. They may just as well stopp delivering parts to blackmail the rest of us.
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spazsinbad

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Unread post27 Oct 2018, 07:52

I'm hoping the full THANKSgiving comes down on this turkey:
Turkey defense minister announces timeline for S-400 deployment
[size=85]26 Oct Burak Ege Bekdil2018

"ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey will begin locally deploying the Russian-made S-400 air defense architecture in October 2019, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said Thursday....

...Akar said Turkey faces a missile threat — without naming the origin of the threat — adding that “we must counter that threat.”...

...The contract involves the acquisition of one S-400 system with an option to purchase a second system....

...Turkish defense procurement bureaucracy says the $2.5 billion S-400 system would be operated by Turkish personnel and would be supported by a locally developed identification friend or foe, or IFF, system. Turkey wants to make the S-400 a standalone system it can operate with its own source codes, including the IFF.

Turkey will have to operate the S-400 on a standalone basis because the system cannot be made interoperable with NATO and U.S. assets deployed in Turkish territory...."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2018/1 ... eployment/
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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marsavian

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Unread post17 Nov 2018, 21:42

Pentagon sends Congress report on Turkey's F-35 program. Pentagon may have an 'unclassified update' about report next week, says spokesman.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/penta ... am/1313801
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spazsinbad

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Unread post05 Dec 2018, 11:57

No ‘devastating impact’ to F-35 industrial base if Turkey removed from program, says US Air Force official
04 Dec 2018 Valerie Insinna

"WASHINGTON — A potential decision by the United States to remove Turkey from the F-35 program over its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system may have only minimal impact on the fighter jet’s industrial base, a senior U.S. Air Force official said Tuesday.

President Donald Trump has yet to determine what steps the Defense Department may take if Turkey moves forward with the S-400 buy. However, Heidi Grant, the Air Force’s deputy undersecretary for international affairs, said Pentagon analysis shows there won’t be a catastrophe if Turkey is forced from the program.

“While it will have some impact on the F-35 program, I don’t think it’s going to be any type of devastating impact if … there’s a policy decision that they are no longer a partner,” Grant told reporters in a Dec. 4 roundtable interview just weeks before she puts a cap on a 16-year career with the Air Force....

...The unclassified summary of the report, ['report' not mentioned so make something up in your mind] [found a seven day old 'slow tony jobbie' here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... agon-warns ] obtained last week by Bloomberg, restated that Turkey may face expulsion from the F-35 program if the S-400 deal goes through. That outcome could influence the U.S. government’s relationship with other partner nations that have also signed on to buy the S-400, such as India or Qatar....

...Grant said she was unaware how long it would take to replace Turkey’s contributions to the F-35 program or what proposed solutions the Trump administration is offering to the country. But she fears it may be too late at this point to persuade the Turkish government to abandon the S-400 deal....

...Despite political friction between the United States and Turkey, the relationship between the countries’ militaries continues to be solid, Grant said. “Like any country, we’re going to have what I consider policy ups and downs, leadership changes at the political level that can change a relationship. But as far as the mil-to-mil relationship right now, it remains strong. They’ve been an F-35 partner since 2002, and a significant industrial-base [partner].”"

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/12 ... cial-says/

Turkey’s F-35 Role at Risk If It Buys From Russia, Pentagon Warns
29 Nov 2018 Anthony Capaccio

" - Clash is over plans to buy Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system
" - Unclassified summary of classified report sent to Congress

Turkey risks expulsion from the U.S.-led F-35 program, the world’s costliest weapons project, if its government takes delivery of an advanced Russian anti-aircraft system, according to an unclassified summary of a Pentagon report sent to Congress....

Congressional Pressure
A longer classified report examining U.S.-Turkish relations, including the F-35, was required in this year’s defense policy bill at the insistence of Senators Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, and Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat. The legislation directed that no F-35 deliveries be made to Turkey until the report was delivered, which it was earlier this month....

‘Serious Vulnerabilities’
Shaheen said in a statement that she was “pleased by the timeliness and comprehensive nature” of the Pentagon’s full, classified report, but she urged the Defense Department to “share this information with the American people.” “Limiting the availability of this report to a select group was not the intent of the law that Senator Tillis and I wrote,” she said.

As lawmakers review what steps to take now, Shaheen said it’s critical to keep in mind that the S-400 “poses serious vulnerabilities to NATO’s airspace and will present additional intelligence issues for the United States and other NATO allies, including Turkey.”..."

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... agon-warns
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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spazsinbad

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Unread post19 Dec 2018, 21:26

Japan OKs Extra F-35 Buy in Fighter Re-equipment Plans :doh: [YES BUT VIRGINIA there is also 'TURKEY STUFFING']
19 Dec 2018 David Donald

"...Another nation has also emerged this month as a potential operator for the F-35B STOVL aircraft. Turkey’s President Erdogan announced during a rally that Turkey will receive 120 F-35s, an increase over the 100-aircraft requirement previously announced. The additional aircraft could be F-35Bs, in which Turkey has shown keen interest as part of its naval ambitions to operate two aircraft carriers.

To date, Turkey has taken delivery of two F-35As, in which Turkish pilots are training in the U.S., and will take delivery of two more in March, according to defense minister, Hulusi Akar. But the full implementation of the Turkish order has been halted due to U.S. CAATSA sanctions following Turkey’s order for the Russian S-400 SAM system. Turkish officials remain sanguine that the issue will be resolved and that F-35 deliveries will be reinstated...."

Source: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ment-plans
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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element1loop

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Unread post20 Dec 2018, 07:06

No comment. :mrgreen:

--

US approves $3.5 billion Patriot missile sale to Turkey

State Department says sale will increase Turkish defensive capabilities, to guard against hostile aggression and shield NATO allies who might train and operate within its borders

19 December 2018

WASHINGTON — The United States said Wednesday it approved the sale of $3.5 billion in missiles to Turkey, offering an ultimatum after US outrage over the NATO ally’s plans to buy from Russia.

The State Department said it had informed Congress of plans to sell Turkey a Patriot package that includes 80 Patriot missiles, and 60 PAC-3 missile interceptors and related equipment. ...

“It is important that NATO countries procure military equipment that is interoperable with NATO systems. A Russian system would not meet that standard,” he said. The announcement comes hours after US President Donald Trump said that the United States had defeated the Islamic State group in neighboring Syria — leading to the withdrawal of US troops, who had effectively limited Turkey’s campaign against Kurdish fighters.

There was no immediate indication that the two announcements were linked, although Trump has made clear that arms sales are a top priority for him. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday vowed to “remove” the Kurdish fighters if necessary, as he said he had spoken by telephone with Trump and agreed on cooperation in Syria.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-approv ... to-turkey/
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popcorn

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Unread post20 Dec 2018, 09:52

Has Turkey accepted the US ultimatum? Someone is going to be surprised in any case...

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/12/ ... man--Pskov

‘Russia to fulfill S-400 sale to Turkey despite Patriot deal’

The Kremlin says there is no link between Turkey’s possible purchase of US Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and that of the advanced Russian-built S-400 air defense missile system, saying Moscow is in the process of fulfilling the terms of the deal with Ankara.
"When a fifth-generation fighter meets a fourth-generation fighter—the [latter] dies,”
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steve2267

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Unread post20 Dec 2018, 15:06

THAT would be awkward should Turkey proceed with purchasing S400 AND Patriot.

But what if the Patriot sale included a deal that ALL S400 equipment, manuals, etc find its way to the USA? And the US reimburse Ankara for it? Such an agreement would be a TRUMPian deal. And Dreamland gets all sorts of new toys to terrorize, errr train, Fallon and Nellis attendees. The Gyrenes would even be allowed up from Miramar to learn to terrorize, errr take out, S400 sites...
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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bring_it_on

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Unread post20 Dec 2018, 15:38

That's unlikely to happen. What is also unlikely to happen is that they get Patriot while also getting the S-400. I think this was planned as a counter offer with the ball now in Turkey's court. Hopefully better senses in Turkey should prevail and they come to the realization that they being part of NATO will hardly have a capable and usable air-defense system if they are called upon to defend NATO against its primary military adversary who just happens to be the designer of their system.This was largely seen as a political play by Erdogan following Putin planting himself in Syria and after the downing of his fighter and the shooting of his ambassador in Turkey.

It would be quite foolish for us to be having a debate to reevaluate turkey's presence in our high end defense program because of their close proximity to Russia under Erdogan, and because of them acquiring the S-400, and then to turn around and sweeten the deal by adding yet another sophisticated military system on top of that. This was quite likely an alternative floated by the Pentagon/DOS to pull Turkey away from the Russian orbit. Let's see if this works. But Putin has a good pulse of Middle East nations and can shake them down by using his Military in the region so it would be interesting to see what price in Syria Turkey perceives it would have to pay should it cancel the S-400 purchase at the 11th hour.
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madrat

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Unread post21 Dec 2018, 13:02

Turkey got Trump to walk away from Syria. Is this a ploy to next isolate the Kurds?

Erdogan wants the Islamic version of Armageddon to unfold in his lifetime. His past unofficial support of ISIS by his government will never be forgotten. Quite frankly, I think we are better off letting him lean Russian and abandon his a$$. Supporting a regime like his that oppresses the population using a sub-theme of religion is just another form of forced democratic socialism not unlike the old Iron Curtain. We've allowed Turkey to become the focal point of the Islamic rebirth that has smothered the remaining infidel (christian, Sikh, secular, etc.) populations surrounding the cradle of civilization. Driving infidels out of Islamic territory is key to the prophetic vision of this a-hole. They are fomenting a very intolerant community.
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Unread post22 Dec 2018, 22:18

What is more dangerous then a dictator?
An armed dictator with an indoctrinated population willing to fight for something stupid like a religion.
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Unread post29 Dec 2018, 03:10

Turkish pilots to begin training for F-35B fighter jets
25 Dec 2018 AHVAL

"Two Turkish pilots currently serving in the Naval Forces have been chosen for F-35B fighter jet training, Turkey’s Kokpit website reported. The pilots, currently working with CN235 and ATR72 aircraft, are set to arrive at the Second Main Jet Base Command located in Turkey’s western town on Çiğli in İzmir as Turkey braces for the delivery of more than 100 Lockheed Martin-produced F-35 jets to Turkey by 2020.

The pair will head to the United States for further training after completing their initial training in Çiğli on the single-seat, single-engined, all-weather stealth multirole fighters, the website noted....

...Ankara has contributed one billion dollars towards Turkey’s planned acquisition of 100 advanced F-35 stealth fighters. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, however, on December 16 said that Turkey will acquire a total of 120 fighter jets, instead of 100, and it is assumed that 20 of those jets will be the F-35B variation...."

Source: https://ahvalnews.com/f-35/turkish-pilo ... ghter-jets
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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